UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 (March 04, 2017)
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Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#141Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#142
I may change my mind on trying this but am giving it a chance..Comment -
eligibletackleSBR High Roller
- 12-20-11
- 149
#143I can buy that Ferguson wins by keeping the distance and landing shots. These gifs of him being slippery on TD attempts are pretty laughable given the matchup at hand. My $0.02.
Tried to find a way to play Tony but will most likely play Khabib minus the points when the prop opens.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#144Maybe Elkins does get smoked but he is a gritty grinder and at those odds I think I'm gonna try it for small.. I hear ya though.. Bektic is undefeated and he did beat Skelly convincingly which is not easy to do..
I may change my mind on trying this but am giving it a chance..
To be fair, both guys fought Skelly and I thought Elkins' performance was better overall. They also both fought Lucas Martins. Bektic beat him easily and Elkins went to a close split.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#145I can buy that Ferguson wins by keeping the distance and landing shots. These gifs of him being slippery on TD attempts are pretty laughable given the matchup at hand. My $0.02.
Tried to find a way to play Tony but will most likely play Khabib minus the points when the prop opens.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#146Tony did get handled a bit there but I think it was hard for him to get up for Vennata. Tony's spidy senses will be in full effect this Saturday night! We both know if you don't take Tony out he will just keep on coming. Imo he's the toughest most durable fighter on the roster.Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#147
Edit: For reference, my max bet is 5u and the only reason I didn't max bet this is Spitz has a few sub wins and Godbeer isn't great there. It's also very hard to find much tape on Spitz, but watching a recent fight against Cabbage Shows that he's just a level below in all areas, and that's with a full fight prep. Also, Godbeer lost UFC debut, but now has that out of the way and will be looking to bounce back to get the ball rolling. He's in a good spot. I think the line is way off. Maybe I'm being played, but hope not.Last edited by Shagdogy; 02-28-17, 06:16 AM.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#148Godbeer is just a much more technical and quick striker than Spitz. He has solid leg kicks and good power in his hands. He's also battle tested in bamma. His ground game and TDD isn't great, but he does an okay job of getting back to his feet where he likes to fight. Spitz is bad IMO. He's very tall and will have a solid reach advantage but he has little power and speed in his hands and his kicks are even worse. He also handles leg kicks terribly, which Godbeer should key in on early. Then once he gets his timing, feels the speed advantage, and Spitz starts to slow on one week's notice, I expect Godbeer to tee off.
Edit: For reference, my max bet is 5u and the only reason I didn't max bet this is Spitz has a few sub wins and Godbeer isn't great there. It's also very hard to find much tape on Spitz, but watching a recent fight against Cabbage Shows that he's just a level below in all areas, and that's with a full fight prep. Also, Godbeer lost UFC debut, but now has that out of the way and will be looking to bounce back to get the ball rolling. He's in a good spot. I think the line is way off. Maybe I'm being played, but hope not.Comment -
Fight4mSBR Hustler
- 02-23-17
- 54
#149I'm glad I took Ferguson at +180 now is +155,and by fight night I expect it to be even closer.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#151MMAMANIA part 1.. Short previews...
205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro
Paul Craig (9-0) dominated the British circuit from 2013 to 2015, stopping seven opponents in the first round and one 42 seconds into the second. He needed a bit more time against Luis Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut, but nonetheless walked away with a submission win and a "Performance of the Night" bonus.
"Bearjew" owns eight professional wins by submission, including three via triangle.
Australia’s Tyson Pedro (5-0) made short work of his first four opponents, finishing each in 3:05 or less. This set up a UFC bout with Khalil Rountree, who dropped Pedro with a thunderous shot early but ultimately succumbed to his grappling prowess.
His last three wins have come by rear-naked choke.
This one basically comes down to wrestling. Craig is slicker and far more proven on the mat, but he’s not a great takedown artist. Pedro consistently puts people on their backs, but he’s fought just two people with winning records.
I think I’ve got to go with experience here. Craig has faced quality grapplers like Karl Moore and -- even if he didn’t always stuff the takedown -- found the submission with impressive regularity. Expect Pedro’s aggressive wrestling to work against him as Craig puts him away with either a guillotine or triangle.
Prediction: Craig by first-round submission
115 lbs.: Amanda Cooper vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Claudia Gadelha’s third Strawweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, Amanda Cooper (2-2) defeated Jamie Moyle and Lanchana Green to reach the Finale. Though she lost to teammate Tatiana Suarez once there, she pushed her professional record back up to .500 last November with a decision over Anna Elmose.
She is an inch shorter and four years younger than Cynthia Calvillo (3-0).
After a perfect (3-0) amateur career that saw her defeat current Bantamweight prospect Aspen Ladd, Calvillo picked up a pair of pro wins to earn a spot on the inaugural LFA card. There, she overpowered Montana Stewart en route to a third-round finish.
In fact, two of her three pro wins have come via technical knockout.
I ate some crow in Cooper’s last fight, but I maintain that Anna Elmose had the tools to beat her. Though Calvillo isn’t as destructive on the feet as "Panda" was, the same holds true. She’s a very effective offensive and defensive wrestler with a strong ground game to back it up.
And Cooper’s takedown defense has failed her multiple times before.
So long as Calvillo stays committed to the grappling, she should cruise to victory via either decision or late ground-and-pound stoppage.
Prediction: Calvillo via third-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Albert Morales vs. Andre Soukhamthath
Albert Morales (6-1) went right into the deep end in UFC, fighting TUF: "Latin America" winner Alejandro Perez to a draw in his debut. He then faced an even stiffer test in knockout machine Thomas Almeida, who put him away with strikes in the second round.
He has ended five of six wins inside the distance.
Andre Soukhamthath (11-3), whose name rhymes with "succotash," enters UFC with three consecutive knockouts under his belt. A brutal knee to Kody Nordby’s jaw earned him the CES Bantamweight title in March 2016, after which he avenged a loss to Kin Moy in his first title defense.
Seven of his eleven wins have come by knockout.
This has low-key "Fight of the Night" potential. Both men are powerful-but-flawed strikers with a history of brutal finishes. It’ll be close, but I’m leaning toward Soukhamthath.
"The Asian Sensation" has the same problem as Patricio "Pitbull" in that he moves his head well when attacking, but backs straight up with his head ramrod-stiff. This has gotten him tagged by lesser strikers before and could spell trouble against someone as aggressive as Morales. That said, Soukhamthath is the more crisp and effective puncher and has never been stopped. It also remains to be seen how Morales’ knockout loss will affect his confidence.
Soukhamthath ends a barnburner sometime in the second.
Prediction: Soukhamthath via second-round technical knockoutComment -
PaperTrail07SBR Posting Legend
- 08-29-08
- 20423
#152Cant WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#154WTF happened to the Elkins line? I thought he was value at +295 and now he's at +440 on my book! I really wish I had waited. Did not see that line moving that much, especially in that direction.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#155
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-28-17, 06:48 PM.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#156
Worth a watch. Firas always brings up things I haven't thought of.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#157Fun Fact: Tony is tied for the longest reach at Lightweight with James Vick and Nate Diaz at 76"Comment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#158
el cucuy about to shine in a few days fellasComment -
strictlypaypalSBR Sharp
- 12-05-12
- 471
#159i don't know if i misread, I'm not too familiar with the undercard prelims but i think i read the craig - pedro fight is gonna be a grappling heavy bout? my line on over 1.5 rounds is +155 so kind of confusedComment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#160Neither guy has ever been to the third round. Both scored submission victories in their UFC debuts. I think Pedro gets takedowns and Craig looks to work his lethal guard and get some kind of Triangle or Armbar from bottom.Comment -
strictlypaypalSBR Sharp
- 12-05-12
- 471
#161
Another weird thing, my sports book (and I know my book doesn't represent vegas or anything like that) but khabib went from -215 to -180 and Ferguson went from +165 to +160 that seems like a drastic change for khabib and no movement on Ferguson. I could say they're trying to bait some khabib bets but have never seen that where the other side virtually stays the sameComment -
rsynweap84Restricted User
- 06-24-16
- 622
#162Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.Comment -
PaperTrail07SBR Posting Legend
- 08-29-08
- 20423
#163Superbowl OF MMA boys....Ferg NURg.......LEGGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOComment -
PaperTrail07SBR Posting Legend
- 08-29-08
- 20423
#164Favor Khabib......round winner...gets him to the floor its over....Tony is tough as nails and wont give up....does not means he will get up....He lands a flash KO or a wild combo....congrats TF...more solid gameplan is Khabib...Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#165I think Khabib gasses and then is unable to get the take downs and starts getting beat up standing.. Maybe gets finished in rounds 4 or 5... El Cucuy gas tank is insane and I believe he has the advantage there..Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-01-17, 12:29 PM.Comment -
PaperTrail07SBR Posting Legend
- 08-29-08
- 20423
#166Everything you say could be true......or Khabib could tire out Tony and Tony gets sloppy on the feet and taken down time after time...Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#167Made a huge bet on Ferguson SNA at the opener (-111) and it's now (-280). Hedged off a unit so my net odds are in +money.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#168Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#169Oh okay got it. Was thinking maybe their ground games negate each other and the fight stalls.
Another weird thing, my sports book (and I know my book doesn't represent vegas or anything like that) but khabib went from -215 to -180 and Ferguson went from +165 to +160 that seems like a drastic change for khabib and no movement on Ferguson. I could say they're trying to bait some khabib bets but have never seen that where the other side virtually stays the sameComment -
Fatal1tySBR High Roller
- 04-16-11
- 127
#170To be honest, virtually every book listed at SBR odds has had -180/+160-ish odds for several days. It's likely that's just where the line has settled. I wouldn't read anything into it, at least not until Saturday shifts.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#171Now Nurm SNA plummets from (+220) to (-118). Happy I played line movement there. Ferguson SNA(-112) is worth a swingComment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#172no talk really about Overeem/Hunt in here ... pretty great fight for me
whats everybodys thoughts ??
im leaning overeem but its a tough call with his glass chin , i think his length and striking diversity will win him a decision thoughComment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#173Small play on Hunt ITD but that's mostly because I hate Overeem. Also think his chin is shot but I don't buy into the story that Hunt is some granite chinned god. His striking defense is not good and he's been KO'ed plentyComment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#174hunt used to have one of the best chins in mma but hes older now and has been hit plenty... His chin is definitely still better then overeems , probably the worst chin in mma right now guys been knocked out 10+ times but he has every skil advantage over hunt and if he wants he could take him down and maul him or pick him apart from distance... actually like the odds here , probably hedge with hunt KO if the price is decent just in caseComment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#175Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.Comment
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