UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 (March 04, 2017)

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  • Hugo de Naranja
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-16
    • 14140

    #141
    Originally posted by Shagdogy
    Hopped in early...
    Godbeer 4u, -140
    Pedro 2u, -120
    Alcantara 1.5u, Even
    Morales 1.4u, -140
    Elkins .67u, +295

    More to come I'm sure. Good luck everyone!
    Tell me more about Godbeer. That's the only fight I haven't watched tape on yet
    Comment
    • JIBBBY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-10-09
      • 83686

      #142
      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
      On 3 of 4 with you. Think Bektic smokes Elkins. Otherwise let's get it bro
      Maybe Elkins does get smoked but he is a gritty grinder and at those odds I think I'm gonna try it for small.. I hear ya though.. Bektic is undefeated and he did beat Skelly convincingly which is not easy to do..

      I may change my mind on trying this but am giving it a chance..
      Comment
      • eligibletackle
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-20-11
        • 149

        #143
        I can buy that Ferguson wins by keeping the distance and landing shots. These gifs of him being slippery on TD attempts are pretty laughable given the matchup at hand. My $0.02.

        Tried to find a way to play Tony but will most likely play Khabib minus the points when the prop opens.
        Comment
        • Hugo de Naranja
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-14-16
          • 14140

          #144
          Originally posted by JIBBBY
          Maybe Elkins does get smoked but he is a gritty grinder and at those odds I think I'm gonna try it for small.. I hear ya though.. Bektic is undefeated and he did beat Skelly convincingly which is not easy to do..

          I may change my mind on trying this but am giving it a chance..
          Fair enough. I just think Bektic's striking + TDD will be too much. He should be able to take Elkins down as well.

          To be fair, both guys fought Skelly and I thought Elkins' performance was better overall. They also both fought Lucas Martins. Bektic beat him easily and Elkins went to a close split.
          Comment
          • Hugo de Naranja
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-16
            • 14140

            #145
            Originally posted by eligibletackle
            I can buy that Ferguson wins by keeping the distance and landing shots. These gifs of him being slippery on TD attempts are pretty laughable given the matchup at hand. My $0.02.

            Tried to find a way to play Tony but will most likely play Khabib minus the points when the prop opens.
            That prop has cashed in all of Khabib's 8 UFC fights. Don't see it happening here but I think that's the way to play it if you've got Khabib
            Comment
            • JIBBBY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-10-09
              • 83686

              #146
              Originally posted by CaptChaos145
              Tony did get handled a bit there but I think it was hard for him to get up for Vennata. Tony's spidy senses will be in full effect this Saturday night! We both know if you don't take Tony out he will just keep on coming. Imo he's the toughest most durable fighter on the roster.
              I can't argue that.. Tony does keep coming and he is a true warrior.. There is no quit in El Cucuy..
              Comment
              • Shagdogy
                SBR MVP
                • 06-16-10
                • 3564

                #147
                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                Tell me more about Godbeer. That's the only fight I haven't watched tape on yet
                Godbeer is just a much more technical and quick striker than Spitz. He has solid leg kicks and good power in his hands. He's also battle tested in bamma. His ground game and TDD isn't great, but he does an okay job of getting back to his feet where he likes to fight. Spitz is bad IMO. He's very tall and will have a solid reach advantage but he has little power and speed in his hands and his kicks are even worse. He also handles leg kicks terribly, which Godbeer should key in on early. Then once he gets his timing, feels the speed advantage, and Spitz starts to slow on one week's notice, I expect Godbeer to tee off.

                Edit: For reference, my max bet is 5u and the only reason I didn't max bet this is Spitz has a few sub wins and Godbeer isn't great there. It's also very hard to find much tape on Spitz, but watching a recent fight against Cabbage Shows that he's just a level below in all areas, and that's with a full fight prep. Also, Godbeer lost UFC debut, but now has that out of the way and will be looking to bounce back to get the ball rolling. He's in a good spot. I think the line is way off. Maybe I'm being played, but hope not.
                Last edited by Shagdogy; 02-28-17, 06:16 AM.
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                • Hugo de Naranja
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-14-16
                  • 14140

                  #148
                  Originally posted by Shagdogy
                  Godbeer is just a much more technical and quick striker than Spitz. He has solid leg kicks and good power in his hands. He's also battle tested in bamma. His ground game and TDD isn't great, but he does an okay job of getting back to his feet where he likes to fight. Spitz is bad IMO. He's very tall and will have a solid reach advantage but he has little power and speed in his hands and his kicks are even worse. He also handles leg kicks terribly, which Godbeer should key in on early. Then once he gets his timing, feels the speed advantage, and Spitz starts to slow on one week's notice, I expect Godbeer to tee off.

                  Edit: For reference, my max bet is 5u and the only reason I didn't max bet this is Spitz has a few sub wins and Godbeer isn't great there. It's also very hard to find much tape on Spitz, but watching a recent fight against Cabbage Shows that he's just a level below in all areas, and that's with a full fight prep. Also, Godbeer lost UFC debut, but now has that out of the way and will be looking to bounce back to get the ball rolling. He's in a good spot. I think the line is way off. Maybe I'm being played, but hope not.
                  Cool man. Thanks for the reply.
                  Comment
                  • Fight4m
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 02-23-17
                    • 54

                    #149
                    I'm glad I took Ferguson at +180 now is +155,and by fight night I expect it to be even closer.
                    Comment
                    • strictlypaypal
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-05-12
                      • 471

                      #150
                      Originally posted by Fight4m
                      I'm glad I took Ferguson at +180 now is +155,and by fight night I expect it to be even closer.
                      Sharps will def be on ferg here I think. I want khabib to win so bad.
                      Comment
                      • JIBBBY
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-10-09
                        • 83686

                        #151
                        MMAMANIA part 1.. Short previews...




                        205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro
                        Paul Craig (9-0) dominated the British circuit from 2013 to 2015, stopping seven opponents in the first round and one 42 seconds into the second. He needed a bit more time against Luis Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut, but nonetheless walked away with a submission win and a "Performance of the Night" bonus.
                        "Bearjew" owns eight professional wins by submission, including three via triangle.
                        Australia’s Tyson Pedro (5-0) made short work of his first four opponents, finishing each in 3:05 or less. This set up a UFC bout with Khalil Rountree, who dropped Pedro with a thunderous shot early but ultimately succumbed to his grappling prowess.
                        His last three wins have come by rear-naked choke.
                        This one basically comes down to wrestling. Craig is slicker and far more proven on the mat, but he’s not a great takedown artist. Pedro consistently puts people on their backs, but he’s fought just two people with winning records.
                        I think I’ve got to go with experience here. Craig has faced quality grapplers like Karl Moore and -- even if he didn’t always stuff the takedown -- found the submission with impressive regularity. Expect Pedro’s aggressive wrestling to work against him as Craig puts him away with either a guillotine or triangle.
                        Prediction: Craig by first-round submission

                        115 lbs.: Amanda Cooper vs. Cynthia Calvillo


                        Claudia Gadelha’s third Strawweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, Amanda Cooper (2-2) defeated Jamie Moyle and Lanchana Green to reach the Finale. Though she lost to teammate Tatiana Suarez once there, she pushed her professional record back up to .500 last November with a decision over Anna Elmose.
                        She is an inch shorter and four years younger than Cynthia Calvillo (3-0).
                        After a perfect (3-0) amateur career that saw her defeat current Bantamweight prospect Aspen Ladd, Calvillo picked up a pair of pro wins to earn a spot on the inaugural LFA card. There, she overpowered Montana Stewart en route to a third-round finish.
                        In fact, two of her three pro wins have come via technical knockout.
                        I ate some crow in Cooper’s last fight, but I maintain that Anna Elmose had the tools to beat her. Though Calvillo isn’t as destructive on the feet as "Panda" was, the same holds true. She’s a very effective offensive and defensive wrestler with a strong ground game to back it up.
                        And Cooper’s takedown defense has failed her multiple times before.
                        So long as Calvillo stays committed to the grappling, she should cruise to victory via either decision or late ground-and-pound stoppage.
                        Prediction: Calvillo via third-round technical knockout

                        135 lbs.: Albert Morales vs. Andre Soukhamthath


                        Albert Morales (6-1) went right into the deep end in UFC, fighting TUF: "Latin America" winner Alejandro Perez to a draw in his debut. He then faced an even stiffer test in knockout machine Thomas Almeida, who put him away with strikes in the second round.
                        He has ended five of six wins inside the distance.
                        Andre Soukhamthath (11-3), whose name rhymes with "succotash," enters UFC with three consecutive knockouts under his belt. A brutal knee to Kody Nordby’s jaw earned him the CES Bantamweight title in March 2016, after which he avenged a loss to Kin Moy in his first title defense.
                        Seven of his eleven wins have come by knockout.
                        This has low-key "Fight of the Night" potential. Both men are powerful-but-flawed strikers with a history of brutal finishes. It’ll be close, but I’m leaning toward Soukhamthath.
                        "The Asian Sensation" has the same problem as Patricio "Pitbull" in that he moves his head well when attacking, but backs straight up with his head ramrod-stiff. This has gotten him tagged by lesser strikers before and could spell trouble against someone as aggressive as Morales. That said, Soukhamthath is the more crisp and effective puncher and has never been stopped. It also remains to be seen how Morales’ knockout loss will affect his confidence.
                        Soukhamthath ends a barnburner sometime in the second.
                        Prediction: Soukhamthath via second-round technical knockout
                        Comment
                        • PaperTrail07
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-29-08
                          • 20423

                          #152
                          Cant WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                          Comment
                          • Shagdogy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-16-10
                            • 3564

                            #153
                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                            Cool man. Thanks for the reply.
                            No problem. I tend to cap cards from bottom up because I feel like I find more value on the undercard. If you watch any Godbeer or Spitz let me know what you think.
                            Comment
                            • Shagdogy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-16-10
                              • 3564

                              #154
                              WTF happened to the Elkins line? I thought he was value at +295 and now he's at +440 on my book! I really wish I had waited. Did not see that line moving that much, especially in that direction.
                              Comment
                              • JIBBBY
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-10-09
                                • 83686

                                #155
                                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                WTF happened to the Elkins line? I thought he was value at +295 and now he's at +440 on my book! I really wish I had waited. Did not see that line moving that much, especially in that direction.
                                That line is out of control.. A 4-1 favorite Elkins should not be.. He's pretty solid, he may not win this fight but you will know it was fight if he does lose.... He's got a pretty solid chin too.

                                Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-28-17, 06:48 PM.
                                Comment
                                • Hugo de Naranja
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-14-16
                                  • 14140

                                  #156


                                  Worth a watch. Firas always brings up things I haven't thought of.
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #157
                                    Fun Fact: Tony is tied for the longest reach at Lightweight with James Vick and Nate Diaz at 76"
                                    Comment
                                    • firekillex
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-18-13
                                      • 6420

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                      Fun Fact: Tony is tied for the longest reach at Lightweight with James Vick and Nate Diaz at 76"
                                      yup guys super long for 55, hell have a half of a foot of reach on khabib plus he used his reach well which is the key, he keeps fighters on the outside of punches and is always great in the dirty boxing range with his elbows and funky strikes
                                      el cucuy about to shine in a few days fellas
                                      Comment
                                      • strictlypaypal
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 12-05-12
                                        • 471

                                        #159
                                        i don't know if i misread, I'm not too familiar with the undercard prelims but i think i read the craig - pedro fight is gonna be a grappling heavy bout? my line on over 1.5 rounds is +155 so kind of confused
                                        Comment
                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-14-16
                                          • 14140

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by strictlypaypal
                                          i don't know if i misread, I'm not too familiar with the undercard prelims but i think i read the craig - pedro fight is gonna be a grappling heavy bout? my line on over 1.5 rounds is +155 so kind of confused
                                          Neither guy has ever been to the third round. Both scored submission victories in their UFC debuts. I think Pedro gets takedowns and Craig looks to work his lethal guard and get some kind of Triangle or Armbar from bottom.
                                          Comment
                                          • strictlypaypal
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 12-05-12
                                            • 471

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                            Neither guy has ever been to the third round. Both scored submission victories in their UFC debuts. I think Pedro gets takedowns and Craig looks to work his lethal guard and get some kind of Triangle or Armbar from bottom.
                                            Oh okay got it. Was thinking maybe their ground games negate each other and the fight stalls.

                                            Another weird thing, my sports book (and I know my book doesn't represent vegas or anything like that) but khabib went from -215 to -180 and Ferguson went from +165 to +160 that seems like a drastic change for khabib and no movement on Ferguson. I could say they're trying to bait some khabib bets but have never seen that where the other side virtually stays the same
                                            Comment
                                            • rsynweap84
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 06-24-16
                                              • 622

                                              #162
                                              Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.
                                              Comment
                                              • PaperTrail07
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-29-08
                                                • 20423

                                                #163
                                                Superbowl OF MMA boys....Ferg NURg.......LEGGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOO
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                                                • PaperTrail07
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-29-08
                                                  • 20423

                                                  #164
                                                  Favor Khabib......round winner...gets him to the floor its over....Tony is tough as nails and wont give up....does not means he will get up....He lands a flash KO or a wild combo....congrats TF...more solid gameplan is Khabib...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JIBBBY
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-10-09
                                                    • 83686

                                                    #165
                                                    Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                                    Favor Khabib......round winner...gets him to the floor its over....Tony is tough as nails and wont give up....does not means he will get up....He lands a flash KO or a wild combo....congrats TF...more solid gameplan is Khabib...
                                                    I think Khabib gasses and then is unable to get the take downs and starts getting beat up standing.. Maybe gets finished in rounds 4 or 5... El Cucuy gas tank is insane and I believe he has the advantage there..
                                                    Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-01-17, 12:29 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • PaperTrail07
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-29-08
                                                      • 20423

                                                      #166
                                                      Everything you say could be true......or Khabib could tire out Tony and Tony gets sloppy on the feet and taken down time after time...
                                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                      I think Khabib gasses and then is then unable to get take downs and starts getting beat up standing.. Maybe gets finished in rounds 4 or 5... El Cucuy gas tank is insane and I believe he has the advantage there..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                        • 14140

                                                        #167
                                                        Made a huge bet on Ferguson SNA at the opener (-111) and it's now (-280). Hedged off a unit so my net odds are in +money.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-14-16
                                                          • 14140

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by rsynweap84
                                                          Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.
                                                          I wish this was a live bettable-fight
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hugo de Naranja
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-14-16
                                                            • 14140

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by strictlypaypal
                                                            Oh okay got it. Was thinking maybe their ground games negate each other and the fight stalls.

                                                            Another weird thing, my sports book (and I know my book doesn't represent vegas or anything like that) but khabib went from -215 to -180 and Ferguson went from +165 to +160 that seems like a drastic change for khabib and no movement on Ferguson. I could say they're trying to bait some khabib bets but have never seen that where the other side virtually stays the same
                                                            They're just tightening the line (meaning less juice on each side). It's likely that they've had more action on Ferguson and want to balance that exposure out with some Khabib bets so they are moving the line down 35 points on that side while also taking 5 cents off the Ferguson price.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Fatal1ty
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-16-11
                                                              • 127

                                                              #170
                                                              To be honest, virtually every book listed at SBR odds has had -180/+160-ish odds for several days. It's likely that's just where the line has settled. I wouldn't read anything into it, at least not until Saturday shifts.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-16
                                                                • 14140

                                                                #171
                                                                Now Nurm SNA plummets from (+220) to (-118). Happy I played line movement there. Ferguson SNA(-112) is worth a swing
                                                                Comment
                                                                • firekillex
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-18-13
                                                                  • 6420

                                                                  #172
                                                                  no talk really about Overeem/Hunt in here ... pretty great fight for me

                                                                  whats everybodys thoughts ??


                                                                  im leaning overeem but its a tough call with his glass chin , i think his length and striking diversity will win him a decision though
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by firekillex
                                                                    no talk really about Overeem/Hunt in here ... pretty great fight for me

                                                                    whats everybodys thoughts ??


                                                                    im leaning overeem but its a tough call with his glass chin , i think his length and striking diversity will win him a decision though
                                                                    Small play on Hunt ITD but that's mostly because I hate Overeem. Also think his chin is shot but I don't buy into the story that Hunt is some granite chinned god. His striking defense is not good and he's been KO'ed plenty
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • firekillex
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-18-13
                                                                      • 6420

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                      Small play on Hunt ITD but that's mostly because I hate Overeem. Also think his chin is shot but I don't buy into the story that Hunt is some granite chinned god. His striking defense is not good and he's been KO'ed plenty
                                                                      hunt used to have one of the best chins in mma but hes older now and has been hit plenty... His chin is definitely still better then overeems , probably the worst chin in mma right now guys been knocked out 10+ times but he has every skil advantage over hunt and if he wants he could take him down and maul him or pick him apart from distance... actually like the odds here , probably hedge with hunt KO if the price is decent just in case
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Shagdogy
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 06-16-10
                                                                        • 3564

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by rsynweap84
                                                                        Really liking Andre Soukhamthath for this fight, think this will be the best fight o the Fight Pass Prelims, potentially anyway. The write up is good, and I look at Morales, and see plenty of danger from potential bombs, but so far when he's let loose, he seems to have gassed himself out very quickly. Andre has plenty of 5 round experience, not so sure he has better TD defense, specially on double-legs, but he should be able to hold his own on the ground from the bottom, if he gets on top, Morales could be up shit creek. If Morales ends it I think it'll be in the first, taking Andre in 2 & 3.
                                                                        No respect for Morales's top game? I think he can hang in the striking, especially in the judges' eyes because he's so much more active and always controls the octagon, but his biggest advantage lies in the top game. I don't even consider Soukh winning with top game because I find Morales's grappling to be far superior.
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