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Evan Dunham
Great bet. At +220 he's where the value is at.
I thought Barboza may have lost against Njokuani, and won a razor close over Pearson.
The matchup reminds me of Healy vs Fodor (Which I also cashed on Healy @ dog odds). Experienced top game wrestler vs Hyped up prospect.
Thoughts?
Healy didn't really have a problem taking Fodor down. Dunham will not be able to take Barboza down. If he wins, he has to figure out a way to do it standing. Closing the distance and dirty boxing is his best bet.Originally Posted by Libert1ne
And I wouldn't call Barboza a "hyped up prospect," I'd call him an experienced Muay Thai specialist, if you're gonna call Dunham an experienced top game wrestler.
Tend to agree with brotha Gabriel on this one. I dont think Dunham is as much of a top-game wrestler as somebody like Sherk. I can understand people arguing tht there is value in Dunham though as he obviously has more outlets seeing as he can stand with Barboza and be comfortable looking to take it to the ground, whilst I doubt Barboza will have any intention of looking for takedowns. Dunham's stand-up defence is questionable though. As Gabe says, his best bet will be to turn this into a "dog fight"!
I would bite on Dunham if he reached +300.... but I think Barboza takes this and he's one of those guys that I typically advise "not" betting against (along with GSP, Anderson, JDS). He keeps improving every fight and his TDD has looked good. Since Dunham isn't really a pure wrestler and seems to be pretty confident with his standup, I think that will be his downfall against Edson, the more technical striker.
This.
Yeah, Barboza is no longer hype. I think it's funny when people talk about him being exposed by Njokuani. Anthony is no joke when it comes to striking...and that was only his 2nd UFC fight. I feel if they ever met again, Barboza would run through him.
yeah I think Barboza struggled getting inside against Njokuani. His manager tried to pull him out of the fight as well due to leg and hand injuries
Dunham can win this if he pushes a high pace (see Lentz and Sherk fights), closes the distance and walks forward (like Pearson) so Barboza's MT is neutralized and keeps changing levels, forcing Barboza to throw less leg kicks. He can grab the 2nd and 3rd round as Barboza is known to slowdown whereas Dunham has the better cardio.
It will require sticking to a gameplan and tightening up his striking defense but if Dunham fights with this strategy I give him close to even odds. What the probability is that he'll actually execute this is the difference between +220 and those odds...
Barboza is known to slow down? When??
Didn't slow against Lullo, didn't slow against Njokuani when he landed that nice kick at the end of the 3rd, didn't slow against Pearson, didn't slow against Etim when he KO'd him in the 3rd...
Dunham's road to victory here might not necessarily mean he has to get a takedown or get on top. dunham has an uncanny ability to initiate a grappling situation from the feet...maybe not at an aoki level but he can do it and he has the build for it
against tyson he was able to move to the back from standing several times and won that fight by clinging on like a koala. That might have something to do with griffin having a tendency to give his back up to escape takedowns.
against sherk he was also able to latch on to a front choke or neck several times
ideally he would do it like how uno beat wicky...where he couldnt out strike him or take him down but managed to get his back over and over again while standing
still...i wouldnt count on it. Athleticism counts for too much. Barboza is explosive on the next level...and we all saw how dunham was unable to get a hold of guillard either
LOL. Good old Gabe is back.
He definitely slowed down against Pearson and Njokuani. One kick doesn't mean you didn't slow down; he was conserving his energy and losing a lot of the exchanges but had enough energy for an exclamation mark on an otherwise razor thin round.
Dunham puts the pedal to the metal against his opponents deeper onto fights whereas Barboza is vulnerable to being pressured by his opponents.
Etim is a great fighter but he's the best stylistic matchup for Barboza, fighting at a distance that allows Edson to get his kicks off. Someone who walks Barboza down like Pearson coupled with frequent level changes is his kryptonite. Dunham would be smart to execute this strategy.
I wouldnt put too much stock into the Njoukani fight because of injuries, but im not running out to lay the number on Barbosa either.
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