[fosho14]

For straight up non-prop bets:

Is there any value in sakara at +325 or is it worth putting stann in a parlay? Or maybe this fight should be left alone altogether.

Thoughts?

[Vaughany]

I'll post my breakdown on this tomorro. Really interesting fight.... DAI CAZZO!

[Hannibal]

I think sakara actually has better technique in both his hands and his kicks. Looks more fluid to me. But then again sakara has this advantage over most guys he fights yets manages to fall apart and lose anyways. Almost reminds me of how denis kang falls apart. Though he has looked mentally stronger/more stable in recent outings.

Stann is stronger, more durable and resiliant, and agressive. I think sakara might have his moments early but eventually stann's pressure will be too much and we'll see sakara crumble once again. Wouldn't be surprised to see stann trade a bit and then take this to the ground.

Doesn't look good for sakara but if he wins I think it would by stoppage early in the fight. Can't see him outlasting stann for a dec.

[Hannibal]

Was really thinking about taking the ITD at -195 but thought too long...now -260

[Rubber Guard]

I have no strong lean. But if I were tp pick it would be Sakara. I think Stann is overrated. He has some power, but he is still pretty raw. Sakara has no chin but he good hands solid BJJ. He can win this just by being technically better. Although Stann has the power to put him out quick. I don't think Stann is worth that price though.

[Hannibal]

Sakara has solid bjj?
He was able to defend well against weidman...but other than that I haven't seen much. If stann gets on top he'll be punching and smashing...not trying to tap him.
Don't recall any impressive sweeps or ability to get up off his back. Certainly not any submission attacks.

[Kaladarus]

I like Sakara here for a small play. Not really excited about this fight either way betting wise, but Sakara may surprise us on the feet and be able to keep it there.

[Rubber Guard]

He is a blackbelt, stayed away from Weidman subs, and has only been sub'd twice (1 to Lister, 1 in his 4th fight ever.)

So I am just assuming he has solid BJJ. It isn't world beating, but he knows what he is doing.

[rocky mattioli]

i have stann as a parlay kicker...i think he`s too strong and seems to be improving as a fighter....and i think he`s mentally tougher than sakara(my opinion)...losing to sonnen and phil davis is no embarrassment......stann might just be a level higher on the food chain than sakara....

and he stays in the cage...sakara averages about 1 fight a year of late....

that said,i wouldn`t lay all that wood under any circumstances....

[Vaughany]

The Weidman/Sakara fight is on youtube for anybody who wants to view it again... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX2ywt3MJGo (Part 1). Particularly worth watching part 1 for the bit where Rogan gets all riled up because the fans start chanting "USA USA USA"!!! Almost goes off on one of his podcast rants!

[Vaughany]

i have stann as a parlay kicker...i think he`s too strong and seems to be improving as a fighter....and i think he`s mentally tougher than sakara(my opinion)...losing to sonnen and phil davis is no embarrassment......stann might just be a level higher on the food chain than sakara....

and he stays in the cage...sakara averages about 1 fight a year of late....

that said,i wouldn`t lay all that wood under any circumstances....

Will probably be the deciding factor in this fight for me. Stann has the toughness and chin to take two punches to give one, which Sakara cant do. Will be coming up to the 5th anniversary of the death of his best friend Travis Mannion as well who died in April 2007 in Iraq so Captain America will be pumped like he was against Leben when Garrett Misener died during the week of the fight in Afghanistan.

BTW, just saw his post fight interview on UFC.com again where he said that Tom "Kong" Watson was a beast and "the most exciting fighter on the planet right now"...made me lol

[Hannibal]

Ya rocky...the mental toughness will be the difference here.
Comparing skillsets...and they are pretty even. You could make a case for leaning to either side. I've seen sakara wilt from shots that you'd expect legit contenders to be able to deal with. He crumbles quickly and doesn't recover.
Has he been at ATT for only his past 4 fights? Because i have noticed he is more calm and seasoned. Seems to be tougher and more resiliant or am I just seeing shit?

[Hannibal]

Yaa I agree too vaughan. Stann way tougher.
Can the emotional/ death thing be a downfall too?
Look hominick..shields. But then again stann is a soldier probably the death thing gets him harder than most people.
Also when people tend to spout nonsense...it makes me a little skeptical about all other aspects of their behavior and thought

[Vaughany]

Yaa I agree too vaughan. Stann way tougher.
Can the emotional/ death thing be a downfall too?
Look hominick..shields. But then again stann is a soldier probably the death thing gets him harder than most people.
Also when people tend to spout nonsense...it makes me a little skeptical about all other aspects of their behavior and thought

yeah guess it's subjective, but as you say with Stann's background it's a bit different to somebody like Shields or Hominick who haven't been through the things he has.

I actually think Sakara is tougher than people give him credit for...I'll talk about tht more later tho

[Vaughany]

Sakara has solid bjj?
He was able to defend well against weidman...but other than that I haven't seen much. If stann gets on top he'll be punching and smashing...not trying to tap him.
Don't recall any impressive sweeps or ability to get up off his back. Certainly not any submission attacks.

Check out the escape from half-guard just after 2minute mark... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztuew...eature=related

[fosho14]

I think after the fight it's gonna seem obvious in hindsight but right now it looks closer than the odds suggest on paper.

[Hannibal]

Check out the escape from half-guard just after 2minute mark... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztuew...eature=related

He exploded at the right time, when weidman wasnt on his guard. Weidman probably tried to greed on a pass that wasnt quite there..but since he had been handling sakara so easily he went for it anyways. Still credit him for his resiliency there and picking the right moment. I like how he pops up and starts firing like he wants to win. He seems to have more "fire" than he did in the past when he would wilt against opposition.

his mental strength seems night and day after the Leben fight. Has sakara always had it in him and was previously just unlucky..? or was there a particular catalyst for this change? Was it since he trained full time at ATT?

I'm starting to think sakara has a better chance than i gave him previously

[bogbat]

Damn I had no idea Sakara has had 10 fights in the UFC. I don't recall hardly any of them.

[Oblivian]

I see Stann as a justified favorite, but not near as big of a favorite as he's sitting. Stann was on his way to losing to Massenzio and lost to Cantwell before putting on another lackluster showing against Cantwell. I think he probably has the chin to take what Sakara dishes out and his heavy hands could present problems for Sakara, but -400 is just way too expensive. I'll end up playing Sakara small for the value.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I already got 75 on sakara str8 up at +320.

Stann is being over valued big time imo. He's a rightful favorite, but I'd put him around -160/70 ish if I were a book...

Stann will have a size, raw ko power, chin, cardio, and mental advantage over sakara...

However, I firmly believe sakara is much, much better on the ground if it gets there. The guy has proven capable and defensive off his back, and it would not surprise me to see him control stann on the ground if it were to get there with alessio on top, as I feel stann is horrible off his back - he lost to phil, he was getting grinded by massenzio until that hail mary comeback sub, and chael controlled him too...

These are all elite US wrestlers with a great base, which sakara is far from, but with the right gameplan I can see him really throwing off stann's fight by using some crafty stand up to set up tds here and there, control for some moments on the ground, stand back up and pick careful shots, change levels and repeat the td /trip... Sakara hasn't really shown any solid ability to take down anyone with consistency (I honestly can't recall him going for many tds in past fights), but once it does get on the ground he seems pretty well rounded from whatever position - top or bottom. Don't know if he can get stann down with consistency, but I would assume with the right striking gameplan and set up he could get stann down as I wouldn't call stann's tdd great by any means.

If they go toe to toe and stand up with each other, I like sakara's offensive technique better than stann and he also has better kicks than stann imo...

However, allesio's defensive technique is nothing special and stann has a big edge in raw ko power and sakara arguably has a semi-glasssy chin... So going toe to toe with stann for a prolonged amount of time would not be wise imo, even though I could still see sakara winning, but would not favor him in a prolonged stand up fight. So I could definintely see stann ko'ing him with brute force when sakara gets wreckless and gets into a brawl type of fight - if he does just slug it out I favor stann.

Therefore if sakara approaches this fight with a smart gameplan, and doesn't go in there to just bang, I definitely give him a chance as I feel he is better on the ground and has better overalll technique on the feet if he were to strike smart and pick his shots

At +320 range I can't understand how someone wouldn't see value in sakara. He can definitely upset. Again, the pick on paper is stann and he is the rightful fav as I could see sakara abandoning a gameplan and just brawling with stann, where I think sakara's mediocre defense and glassy chin will come into effect. Yet paying anythign over -250 ish for stann is just silly as he can definitely lose this fight.

[Hannibal]

The thing is...sakara has to do this and this and that...execute a flawless gameplan and timing his actions precisely. Stann just has to do what he always does and punch him in the face?

[Beelzebubzy]

Stann wins, this will be a mirror image of Stann Santiago except it ends in Round 1

[MMAbetMASTA]

Sakara has solid bjj?
He was able to defend well against weidman...but other than that I haven't seen much. If stann gets on top he'll be punching and smashing...not trying to tap him.
Don't recall any impressive sweeps or ability to get up off his back. Certainly not any submission attacks.

To survive underneath weidman for 2 rounds is a pretty good accomplishment for a guy with a base in boxing...... Stann would be subbed within a minute of weidman working on top of him imo...

[MMAbetMASTA]

The thing is...sakara has to do this and this and that...execute a flawless gameplan and timing his actions precisely. Stann just has to do what he always does and punch him in the face?

you're right, he would have to execute quite a gameplan, but at +320 I'll def take a small risk and bank on that for a nice return. And while I favor stann in a prolonged stand up fight, I don't favor him so much as to where I would say there is little possibility for sakara to win a striking match... If sakara can't mix in a ground game as part of his attack, he will end up in a stand up bout where he does have a decent chance at winning if he doesn't get into a brawl with stand and trys to keep it technical....Stann wins a prolonged stand up match, but don't be surprised if sakara upsets and wins a 3 round stand up fight. Its just too damn close to play stann imo, I can't see how anyone is comfortable with a play on him or see how they can confidently say he has it in the bag - which a -400 line reflects...

[Vaughany]

My thoughts/ramblings on this fight (a lot of below has probably already been stated above and elsewhere)...

Stann’s advantages:

-Stamina (Sakara coming off 13 month lay-off and had issues with illness/making weight whilst Stann fought 3 times in 2011)
-Will to win/determination
-Toughness/resilience/endurance

Only tends to get finished via sub. Questionable sub defence but shouldn’t be a big concern against Sakara who despite being a black-belt in BJJ isn’t exactly a dangerous submission artist. This is not to say that Sakara cant get Stann to the ground and cause some issues.
Been TKO’d once against Cantwell which shows he can be finished from strikes. However, if you read his autobiography you can see that Stann wasn’t mentally there going in to that fight and he was also very raw (before he worked at Jackson’s) and had no idea about stand-up defence or fundamentals of footwork, cutting angles, head movement etc..

-Power
-Athleticism


Sakara advantages:

-Technical striking
-Ground game – black-belt in BJJ
-TD defence

These advantages may still be questionable for some. I’m sure many would argue that Alessio’s striking is over-rated, especially after seeing how Weidman managed to handle his striking for large portions of their fight and actually cut Sakara open with his jab in the first round.


One of those fights that appears almost too easy to predict at first glance. You have a fighter in Legionarious who has struggled in the past against stand-up orientated opponents with KO power such as Houston Alexander, Leben and McFedries, and is now fighting a guy in Stann who has similar power and is also more well-rounded than the aforementioned opponents. Furthermore, Sakara is coming off of a range of illnesses and injuries and hasn’t fought in 13 months so it doesn’t bode well for him. One may argue that the year long layoff may actually be of benefit to him, as admittedly sometimes layoffs are better for a fighter as it allows them to adjust things in their camps and heal their bodies. With regard to the former that may be true as Sakara has spent more time at ATT for this fight and does look in good shape, but with regards to the latter, he has had the fight with Rivera scheduled during fall of 2011 that he had to pull out of so he hasn’t really been able to use the time since the Weidman fight to have surgeries or heal up.

Sakara hasn’t beaten anybody that is still in the UFC, and even out of his losses only Weidman is still a UFC fighter. At the end of the day, his most impressive win is a very debatable and rather boring split-decision win against Thales Leites.


I think that Sakara's best option in this fight apart from trying to be elusive in the stand-up is to try and take the fight to the ground. Whether he can or not is a big question, but nonetheless, I dont think he can risk trading with Stann despite probably being the more refined striker. We've seen Stann deal with Leben's power, nobody since Cantwell (second fight) has really managed to get the better of stand-up exchanges with Stann, although granted none have the striking background that Sakara possesses. Will Sakara look to take Stann down though? I think some may be surprised by his gameplan, I think he may well look to close the distance and grab a hold of Stann and drag him to the mat. Firstly, I'm assuming that most think that Sakara will just stand and trade due to his boxing background and because he hasn't shown a grappling orientated gameplan previously. But in fact, from watching his first UFC fight against Elvis Sinosic you can see that Sakara isn't immune to being relentless with takedown attempts. From very early on, he flurried and closed the distance then dragged Sinosic to the ground with a body lock takedown, delivered some solid gnp and rinsed and repeated for three rounds (fight can be viewed here: http://www.mmaroot.com/alessio-sakar...c-fight-video/) He also showed brutal GnPnd against Fairclough in his debut before he got brutally kicked in the nuts in second round and ended up in hospital! Now obviously, taking down Sinosic repeatedly is no incredible feat, but at least it shows that he does have the potential to use such a strategy even though he had the advantage in the stand-up as well and would of probably won there as well, and Stann's takedown defence is still questionable. Moreover, Sakara is spending plenty of time at ATT for this camp, working with likes of Bigfoot Silva and Thiago Silva. As we've seen recently and in past, ATT fighters do tend to like to mix it up and try and steal rounds with takedowns. We've seen Thiago Alves do it more recently against Howard and all be it to his detriment against Kampmann! Likes of Tibau, Masvidal, Coy, Attonito, Woodley, and of course Thiago Silva against Vera, have all shown a propensity to try and dominate and grind out fights using takedowns and dominant ground control. So with this in mind combined with the fact that Stann's obvious biggest weakness is his takedown defence and sub defence, I think it would be amiss to assume that Sakara will just look to stand and trade with Stann. Dont necessarily mean anything, but these quotes below from a couple of interviews that Sakara has done also suggest that he is fully aware of the advantages that he may have on the ground...


"Stann has very good hands and is powerful. But I think my boxing is as good as his and overall I believe I’m a better fighter. But I am really looking forward to this. I think it will be a very good stand-up fight, but I’m prepared to take it to the ground, too."

"I'm faster and more skilled in the standing combat [than Stann]; and I am also more skilled on the ground."

If Stann doesnt finish Sakara early, a key factor may well be who gets the first takedown and gets top control. Stann may also go in with the gameplan of surprising Stann with a takedown. IMO it would be in their best interests to try and surprise the other with a takedown. This could well end up being similar to the Kampmann/Alves fight where most expected it to just be a stand-up war, but ultimately ended up being a mix of constant pressing against the cage and takedown attempts along with striking by both fighters.
Counting on Sakara actually implementing it is another thing, be similar to counting on Cheick Kongo avoiding a stand-up fight and implementing the right gameplan! Nontheless, I have to agree with Betmasta above that the value is currently with Sakara at +325, though I'd hold off as he might reach +350 by fight time. I certainly wouldnt feel confident with Stann at worse than -250, and I still might arb out of my play on the All-American at -250 even then. Ultimately, this could end up being one of those fights where I look back after it and think holy shiit how was Stann a -400 favourite?! Should Stann be a legitimate -400 favourite due to the fact that he has power vs Sakara's history of being knocked out by power punchers before, combined with his lay-off?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

This fight is easy to bet on if you follow the cardinal rule: Fade any ATT fighters who can only win by sticking to a gameplan.

[omalley21]

This fight was clearly matched up for Stann to win. He's a big draw being the all american war hero and what not. He is the gateway to many potential new fans (troops) the same way Bisping is to English fans. (Shame Lee Murray's not around anymore, although Bisping is clearly better then people think)

I know that Jorge Rivera is tight with Dana, and Jorge and his coaches would meticulously study and handpick opponents that he knew he could beat (quarry, schafer are other examples I know of, I doubt they wanted Philipou although they could've IDK). Its no coincidence that he tried to fight sakara several times.

Clearly, Joe Silva's money would be on Brian Stann, not that it necessarily guarentee's anything. Just pointing out the obvious.

[Jesus Christ]

This fight is easy to bet on if you follow the cardinal rule: Fade any ATT fighters who can only win by sticking to a gameplan.

I thought I was the only person who felt that way about ATT fighters.

[fosho14]

Thanks for that long and detailed write up vaughany. By the sound of it, it seems exactly like the kind of thing that one should not gamble on. I'd rather bet large amounts on a few select bouts that are good value than put money on every single fight. We'll have to see what the odds are for the rest of the fights and hope for better opportunities. Stann is at a terrible price, but I really don't think sakara will be able to pull of the upset, so I'll stay away.

[Vaughany]

Thanks for that long and detailed write up vaughany. By the sound of it, it seems exactly like the kind of thing that one should not gamble on. I'd rather bet large amounts on a few select bouts that are good value than put money on every single fight. We'll have to see what the odds are for the rest of the fights and hope for better opportunities. Stann is at a terrible price, but I really don't think sakara will be able to pull of the upset, so I'll stay away.

yeap, probably the best idea

[Vaughany]

“I think this fight will be beautiful for the UFC fans. Right now he is only thinking of Brian Stann and will only think of the future after the fight. Everyone knows that Brian Stann is a striker and I know I’m better then him in Jiu Jitsu. But, I am going to fight my fight.” Sakara added that, “I’m going to strike because people love to see striking. I know that Stann has heavy hands but my technique is better then his.”
“I’m going to knock out Brian Stann.”

[MMAbetMASTA]

“I think this fight will be beautiful for the UFC fans. Right now he is only thinking of Brian Stann and will only think of the future after the fight. Everyone knows that Brian Stann is a striker and I know I’m better then him in Jiu Jitsu. But, I am going to fight my fight.” Sakara added that, “I’m going to strike because people love to see striking. I know that Stann has heavy hands but my technique is better then his.”
“I’m going to knock out Brian Stann.”

well if he's serious about what he's said above, then I am def less confident in my upset play on him.... Hopefully he's not serious and he utilizes his underrated ground game...

[Hannibal]

Are you gonna make a play on sakara dec? Pays something like +680

[Vaughany]

Are you gonna make a play on sakara dec? Pays something like +680

I'd only play tht if I was confident enough in him being elusive and using takedowns and GnP like he did against Sinosic....but Im not! I think Stann has a cardio advantage as well