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03-16-12 11:10 PM #1
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03-18-12 02:16 PM #2
santos is -610 at 5dimes right now. i had him in some parlays the last time around when he was closer to -450 or -460, but i cant play him at this price. ill probably end up playing fight ITD if i can get it around -300 like last time.
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03-18-12 02:25 PM #3
I think -300 ITD is risky....Isn't him gassing and riding out a decision a possibility?
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03-18-12 05:31 PM #4
Originally Posted by Vitooch
yes it is a possibility, but i dont think its very likely. i think if prindle is on the bottom, he will get subbed pretty quick.
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03-19-12 09:27 AM #5
Im incline to agree with you. We'll see what the odds are when bookmaker finally releases them. I dont want to discuss any of the other fights until the lines are released.
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03-19-12 10:40 AM #6
-610 is crazy, Prindle might have looked terrible in their last fight but cmon...I've also heard that Santos has had some weight issues but some people were also saying that was hearsay from the Prindle camp and that Prindle actually was having issues cutting weight, hence the flulike symptoms. Originally Posted by PunisherIND
Honestly I'm over this fight, the odds suck, the fighters don't really have a chance against Konrad haha. Either way I'd put a few bucks on Prindle just for that huge punch he might just land.
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03-19-12 12:11 PM #7
I don't like Prindle at all in this fight... but at +425 I think he's worth a shot. He's a beast with heavy hands that can end the fight at any moment.... it's just likely he'll be on his back all night.
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03-19-12 12:35 PM #8
One of Prindle's biggest setbacks is his lack of footwork. He has tremendous power in his hands, but seems very flat-footed and susceptible to takedowns.
Just an absolutely horrible matchup for Prindle as the odds indicate.
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03-19-12 05:36 PM #9
Prindles been training at CSW with Barnett and Erik Paulson. If he can stuff the TD and land a big punch he can definitely win. I certainly wouldnt lay the number on Santos.
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03-19-12 06:05 PM #10
He was training at Death Clutch before, his TDD was god awful even when he trained with those guys. Originally Posted by omalley21
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03-19-12 09:29 PM #11
The first time they fought i was huge on Santos around -230 i think. But the current odds are crazy. At what price is Prindle worth a tickle?
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03-19-12 10:51 PM #12
Shit, I'll throw a tenner on Prindle come fight night at these prices.
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03-21-12 11:45 AM #13
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03-21-12 11:48 AM #14
................
like woodard
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03-21-12 11:54 AM #15
I'm definitely playing Woodard and Tirloni. I may end up playing all dogs besides Prindle.
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03-21-12 01:18 PM #16
I guess I will be playing Woodard
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03-21-12 05:02 PM #17
Hawn is such a beast. Tirloni looks great but he will have to win from his back. Hopefully 5dimes has props this week.
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03-21-12 06:29 PM #18
tirloni looks very good tho. Made smooth ben henderson work for the w and have won 11 fight since then. 9 finishes, maybe worth a small bet.
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03-21-12 08:28 PM #19
that`s what i`m thinking...hawn will either be a beast at155 or he`ll be drained......tirloni is excelent off his back..... Originally Posted by bjpenn85
after watching him vs henderson,i think he has a chance.......http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBVzM...eature=related
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03-22-12 09:08 AM #20
Pitbull is easy money tonight.
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03-22-12 09:25 AM #21
No doubt. Pitbull will not lose tonight, it is a lock. Originally Posted by Crassus
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03-22-12 09:29 AM #22
Bendo is much improved since then however (i.e. he can see). Originally Posted by bjpenn85
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03-22-12 09:41 AM #23
Does anyone have any background on Weedman and Ambrose? I thought Weedman was 170, is he cutting down to LW? Any pics of Hawns training camp? I'd be interested if he's pulling a margarito and just destroying himself in the gym.
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03-22-12 09:56 AM #24
lol. Yes he is much improved, no secret. Figthing the elite over several years should make you a better fighter. But the fact that he gave henderson problems, to me means that he is a solid fighter. at 2.65 its a value play as i consider the likelihood for victory round 50%.
What concerns me is hawns clinching. He grinds on people nick lentz style.
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03-22-12 10:25 AM #25
I think Freire will win but Cupcake is no joke. If cupcake stands and bangs like he says, he's in trouble, patricky is a little quicker. But, If he uses his wrestling he could wear Patricky out. He's been known to fade.
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03-22-12 01:44 PM #26
I really like Ambrose at these odds. Weedman is a solid Bellator veteran but no worldbeater. Ambrose has the skillset (solid wrestling and a strong BBJ top game) to grind out a decision or submit him.
I also like Hawn to grind a decision or TKO Torloni. Hawn's crushing power in the clinch and on top should prove too overwhelming for Torloni
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03-22-12 02:05 PM #27
Originally Posted by bjpenn85
I researched this fight a decent amount last night.
Inititally I was all over tirloni, and was thinking about going larger than my usual 25/50 buck 'dog sprinkle'...
However, after looking closer at this fight, I am starting to like hawn. IF tirloni gets back to a +200 or better dog I'd def take him for a sprinkle, but at the current +150 range its not reallly worth it to me.
Hawn's comp is on a whole different than tirloni... I'm not a big fan of mma math, but outside of a few people, most of tirloni's compettion had a losing record, his most recent comp especially (it seems he fought better guys at the start of his career and has fought C/D level fighters since - he has fought some really bad, less than staller comp it looks like...). Ricardo has looked good against 'meh' guys, Hawn has looked good against pretty legit B / C+ level comp in my opinion (and he clearly beat Hieron imo...).
Tirloni also has W's over a lot of guys who are natural FW's, while rick has fought exclusively at ww it seems and is use to bigger guys. Tirloni looks large as a LW himself, as he seems to look pretty big against his comp in the videos I've seen. However, rick should still be bigger I would think, right?
If the cut goes well, I think rick's cardio will be VASTLY superior to tirloni's cardio and this is the key to determining who wins this fight imo...
In the 3 fights I was watching of tirrloni - he seemed to gas and slow down a lot by the middle of the second (including bendo fight, although that was a grueling match!). I can see tirloni looking strong at first and then gassing and losing the rest of the fight. I mean almost all his finishes were in the first so he seems like a really long starter who slows down a good amount as the fight progresses.
Tirloni is not taking rick down I don't think - the only way this fight hits the mat with tirloni on top is if rick wants it to. I don't think rick is gonna wanna play in T's guard either. I actually see this being a striking match, unless rick feels balzy enough to fight on top in T's guard which I really don't think will happen... There is no doubt in my mid Tirloni is the best pure grappler and jitz artist rick has faced, so there are some question marks for me if Tirloni does get a favorable position on rick when on the ground - we really haven't seen rick in a bad spot against a jitz guy.
Now, tirloni seems to have some hype as a striker. Yes, he seems to pack a punch and has nice kicks. Yet his overall technique in his hands, both offensively and defensively look mediocre at best. Tirloni seems to have good timing on counters, but again the technique is not the greatest although he seems to make up for that lacking with a bit of raw power (that Ko'd natural featherweigts, not bigger men). The way he defends is horrible - his chin is always up high it seems, he has little head movement, and it looks like he has stiff footwork. Its not horrible, but not great. And when he moves backwards he really looks awkward when on the defensive and does this fliching shit where he pops his chin up and head back. Tirloni has a nasty clinch and knees from there - but he is not gonnna dominate a legit judo practicioner like rick - so I think rick will be able to stay out of bad spots in the clinch if not completely controling any clinching that goes down..
Hawn on the other hand has nice head work, foot work and growing offensive technique. He is a bit lax defensively as well, and doesn't have the same raw power as T (although I still think Rick has power), but overall I feel rick is the better striker. He also seems pretty quick too, I would have to give him a standing speed advantage. In the first round I think T will be strong and might win a striking match. But in a prolonged striking match that sees the 2nd and 3rd I have to favor rick, especially if he has the same cardio he did at ww. He will make T's head spin when he dances around him and peppers his face up with superior movement.
Part of me still see's Tirloni upsetting and perhaps he is a diamond in the rough who simply hasn't had the chance to show his skills against top comp... Yet part of me makes me think hawn is also a diamond in the rough who has looked good against legit comp...
If Tirloni gets up to +175ish or better I will probably play him as the value is there and I feel he can upset in the 1st, but if rick gets under -200 I do like him and I am tempted to play him str8 up or for a decision win... I think rick will be bigger, will have much much better cardio, will be faster and more technical on the feet, and will have the ability and tdd/base judo posture to keep it upright to a avoid a grappling match where I do think T is better on the ground. I see Tirloni coming out super agressive and strong, getting the better of rick in the clinch and on the feet in the first rnd. However, I think he will slow and we will see rick win a sparring match in the 2nd and 3rd similar to his last fight with jay or his fight will wallhead. I think this will go to a decision too if Tirloni doesn't finish it in the first. Can't see rick finishing to be honest. Now that I conclude writing this I htink I might just have to stay out of this one!!! Thoughts?
And does anyone know about rick's cut / camp info or how hard its gonna be for him? Any word from the camp?
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03-22-12 02:18 PM #28
Hawn's cut to LW is one of my biggest concerns. Hawn gassing is the worse thing that could happen for Hawn backers because he will be very susceptible to a takedown and submissio. With that being said, if the cut goes relatively well, he will present a major strength advantage, something Tirloni probably has never experienced against his usual "meh" competition. If Hawn can clinch throw Tirloni into side control in order to steal rounds, sort of like what Boetsch did to Nick Ring, he will win this fight easily. I'm hoping and not expecting this to be a purely standup battle but I won't be too worried if it is. Thanks for the info
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03-22-12 02:19 PM #29
Hawn vs Tirloni should be the finals. I think Hawn will win the whole thing. Tirloni has a bright future but Hawn's time is now. Hawn says the cut went fine, but ya gassing is a concern here. Training at tristar with zahabi. Tirloni hits hard, hawn will want to take him down. Hawn got robbed against Hieron.
I also like Weedman a lot here. Who also arguably beat Hieron if I recall.
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03-22-12 02:40 PM #30
Interview with Hawn:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWDGTUnZnk0Points Awarded:
omalley21 gave ghost kid 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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03-22-12 03:27 PM #31
I also really like the prince -135 over black magik.
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03-22-12 05:47 PM #32
Santos had a week extra and still came in 2 pounds heavy (by reports). Disgraceful.
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03-22-12 05:59 PM #33
Maybe I misheard it, but I thought they said 277, not 267. Originally Posted by ghost kid
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03-22-12 06:01 PM #34
He missed weight as well. Originally Posted by omalley21
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03-22-12 06:17 PM #35
I was gonna say earlier that Daily was a small Welterweight as well!
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