UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • THE_LOCKSMITH
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-25-08
    • 7237

    #1
    UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)


    Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
    Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux (for interim light heavyweight title)
    Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo (for flyweight title)
    Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Pettis
    Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker
    Andre Fili vs. Yair Rodriguez

    FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET

    Chris Kelades vs. Sergio Pettis
    Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele
    Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima
    Glaico Franca vs. James Vick

    UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
    Cody East vs. Walt Harris
    Clint Hester vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
    Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee



  • Ty$
    SBR MVP
    • 03-20-16
    • 1241

    #2
    I already put $50 on jones by KO at +130... $25 on DJ to finish ITD +180... $25 on Whittaker by KO -105
    Comment
    • JIBBBY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-10-09
      • 83686

      #3
      It's been nice only having to wait one week for each UFC event now.. This got next up!!!

      Wish that JJ/OSP line wasn't so jacked, not sure how to play that fight? Maybe the over?
      Comment
      • Ty$
        SBR MVP
        • 03-20-16
        • 1241

        #4
        Originally posted by JIBBBY
        It's been nice only having to wait one week for each UFC event now.. This got next up!!!

        Wish that JJ/OSP line wasn't so jacked, not sure how to play that fight? Maybe the over?

        I see a healthy TKO by cocaine jones
        Comment
        • CaptChaos145
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 04-03-14
          • 588

          #5
          I like Barboza over Pettis. I believe Barbosa is the better striker and Pettis doesn't move a lot on his feet. He also doesn't hurt guys with his punches. Barbosa isn't a hard pincher either.

          Both guys need/want space to operate. Neither fighter will pressure the other much unless Pettis goes for TD's. Barbosa has solid TD defense against good wrestlers and Pettis is not a good wrestler. Barbosa circles out of trouble very well.

          Good luck catching a Barbosa kick. He probably has the fastest/hardest round house kicks (p4p) in mma. I saw them live. You couldn't even see them - lightening fast.
          Last edited by CaptChaos145; 04-17-16, 01:27 PM.
          Comment
          • bjpenn85
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-17-11
            • 5059

            #6
            Originally posted by CaptChaos145
            I like Barboza over Pettis. I believe Barbosa is the better striker and Pettis doesn't move a lot on his feet. He also doesn't hurt guys with his punches. Barbosa isn't a hard pincher either.

            Both guys need/want space to operate. Neither fighter will pressure the other much unless Pettis goes for TD's. Barbosa has solid TD defense against good wrestlers and Pettis is not a good wrestler. Barbosa circles out of trouble very well.

            Good luck catching a Barbosa kick. He probably has the fastest/hardest round house kicks (p4p) in mma. I saw them live. You couldn't even see them - lightening fast.
            Im on Barboza as well. Its hard to see barboza finish pettis, when nobody else is doing it. Barboza doesnt usually finish people that are hard to stop, which make barboza inside distance even less likely. As the fight progressing its favouring barboza on the feet, but if the fight gets stopped, it could be either pettis by sub or TKO. So the fight is a bit kinky to bet.

            But i have Barboza @ +150 and barboza dec. A little hedge on Pettis TKO as pettis usually submitting wrestlers going for takedowns as in henderson and melendez. As you so said, Pettis doesnt have the wrestling to take down barboza most likely therefor pettis will finish barboza on the feet. Barboza has a horrible chin as we know, so its even more likely to happen if a stoppage happens anyway.
            Comment
            • bjpenn85
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-17-11
              • 5059

              #7
              Josh is using the Anthony Pettis has more ways to win argument, but that doesnt help much when barboza is the best fighter on the feet, the area where the fight takes place. This is also a favourable point to meet Pettis. I think he doesnt fight with the same energy and intensity as he did prior. He seems slower and less agile for some reason.
              Comment
              • JIBBBY
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-10-09
                • 83686

                #8
                ^^ I think that's a tough fight to call either way.. Pettis by KO or Edson by Decision maybe? At +158 Barboza straight is very tempting though I can't lie...

                It's just damn tough betting against showtime Pettis though... Pettis is tough standing or on the ground.. Barboza is very athletic and quick... He'll have the reach and height on Pettis.

                Edzon Barbosa has always responded well after a loss, and Pettis has now lost 2 fights in a row both by decision...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Edson-Barboza-46259


                Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-17-16, 07:55 PM.
                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #9
                  There may be some aspect of the fight i havent picked up though, so its not a big play as for now, but thats the way i feel the fight will pan out.
                  Comment
                  • Hugo de Naranja
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-16
                    • 14140

                    #10
                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                    Josh is using the Anthony Pettis has more ways to win argument, but that doesnt help much when barboza is the best fighter on the feet, the area where the fight takes place. This is also a favourable point to meet Pettis. I think he doesnt fight with the same energy and intensity as he did prior. He seems slower and less agile for some reason.
                    Haven't all of Pettis' losses come to guys who held him up against the cage and controlled position though? Even against Melendez he lost the first round by getting held up against the cage. I don't see Barboza doing that to him in this fight and I think Pettis can contend with anyone on the feet. He has knockout power in his kicks and is capable of jumping on quick subs against top-level competition.
                    Comment
                    • GunShard
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 03-05-10
                      • 10031

                      #11
                      Cejudo might be a live dog for the first few rounds then gets gassed out in the later rounds. Johnson speed advantage should win this fight. Not sure if I should bet on this one.
                      Comment
                      • JIBBBY
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-10-09
                        • 83686

                        #12
                        Originally posted by GunShard
                        Cejudo might be a live dog for the first few rounds then gets gassed out in the later rounds. Johnson speed advantage should win this fight. Not sure if I should bet on this one.
                        Johnson by decision.. Make that Johnson by unanimous dec at +120.. Henry is too tough to get finished but like you said to slow to out point Mighty Mouse round after round.. I think Mighty Mouse will clearly win atleast 3 of the 5 rounds..

                        Outside chance Johnson can win by sub as he has 2 sub wins in his last 3 fights.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demetrious-Johnson-45452 I just don't think Mighty Mouse will allow the fight to go to the ground.. He'll look to stay off his back against Henry..

                        Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-17-16, 07:54 PM.
                        Comment
                        • CaptChaos145
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 04-03-14
                          • 588

                          #13
                          Surprisingly this will only be Pettis' 8th fight in 5 years.
                          He will have to catch Barbisa with a kick. Can he do that? Barbosa did get rocked by a Cerrone jab and then finished with a RNC but he was winning the stand up battle before that.

                          I just don't think Pettis will be active enough and Barbosa will out point him.
                          Comment
                          • JoshKnows46
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-27-12
                            • 3691

                            #14
                            Jon, mighty mouse, pettis and Whittaker are all stone cold locks..if you can't make money on this card, then you can't make money betting..
                            Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-17-16, 10:36 PM.
                            Comment
                            • JoshKnows46
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-27-12
                              • 3691

                              #15
                              Originally posted by bjpenn85
                              Josh is using the Anthony Pettis has more ways to win argument, but that doesnt help much when barboza is the best fighter on the feet, the area where the fight takes place. This is also a favourable point to meet Pettis. I think he doesnt fight with the same energy and intensity as he did prior. He seems slower and less agile for some reason.
                              Shocking you think Barboza is better on the feet, its not even close, he's outclassed everywhere in this fight. You have some film study to do..the tape never lies, I can only assume you haven't started watching yet. Pettis is training the takedown off the leg kick, so the standup likely will be a mute point, but your opinion that barboza is better in the standup is wrong, he has zero advantages in this fight, just like natal, osp, and henry. Very predictable card.
                              Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-17-16, 10:53 PM.
                              Comment
                              • bjpenn85
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-17-11
                                • 5059

                                #16
                                Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                Shocking you think Barboza is better on the feet, its not even close, he's outclassed everywhere in this fight. You have some film study to do..the tape never lies, I can only assume you haven't started watching yet. Pettis is training the takedown off the leg kick, so the standup likely will be a mute point, but your opinion that barboza is better in the standup is wrong, he has zero advantages in this fight, just like natal, osp, and henry. Very predictable card.
                                Outclassed? I think we often think that way. Pettis has good kicks and pretty good variety and shot selection, more power better submissions. But barboza impressed me in his fight with tony ferguson, he fought very well, if he can show up like he did there he has a shot if he can fight his fight. I see value in Barboza. Am on jones, demetrious, and whittaker as well. I also like walt harris and daniel roberts if the line is decent.
                                Comment
                                • JoshKnows46
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 07-27-12
                                  • 3691

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                  Outclassed? I think we often think that way. Pettis has good kicks and pretty good variety and shot selection, more power better submissions. But barboza impressed me in his fight with tony ferguson, he fought very well, if he can show up like he did there he has a shot if he can fight his fight. I see value in Barboza. Am on jones, demetrious, and whittaker as well. I also like walt harris and daniel roberts if the line is decent.
                                  barboza was impressive in defeat, but that's why we are getting the line we are, thats why your betting borboza, and thats why you're gonna lose....recent performances dont paint the whole picture, pettis is the better striker, you havent seen his striking in a while since he got grinded out by alverez and rda, but he's still the better striker, so you would serve yourself well by watching some of pettis's fights previous of his last couple, and not just going off of memory, because i can tell your memory isn't serving you well here. again its improtant i mention, this will be a mute point, becuase barboza will be subbed inside of 1 round, but your bet has zero chance regardless of what path of victory pettis chooses.
                                  Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-18-16, 12:02 AM.
                                  Comment
                                  • JoshKnows46
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-27-12
                                    • 3691

                                    #18
                                    Better striking, better wrestling, better jitz, more agressive, better judge of distance, more diverse striking, can control the pace and steal rounds Ala namajunes with his improved wrestling, better chin, more power, more danger, less for pettis to worry about, more for barboza to worry about, more tools, tailor made matchup for pettis, Barboza equals no path to victory.
                                    Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-18-16, 12:16 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • bjpenn85
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-17-11
                                      • 5059

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                      Better striking, better wrestling, better jitz, more agressive, better judge of distance, more diverse striking, can control the pace and steal rounds Ala namajunes with his improved wrestling, better chin, more power, more danger, less for pettis to worry about, more for barboza to worry about, more tools, tailor made matchup for pettis, Barboza equals no path to victory.
                                      I will watch some more tape prior to the last fights and see if i agree.
                                      Comment
                                      • JoshKnows46
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-27-12
                                        • 3691

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                        I will watch some more tape prior to the last fights and see if i agree.
                                        Even though he won, barboza made paul felder look like a good striker, we know better now, what you think pettis will do to him!?!

                                        Comment
                                        • JIBBBY
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-10-09
                                          • 83686

                                          #21
                                          I'm thinking dog play on this event so far.. These odds are off I think for the dogs anyways so far.. I may take every dog on the main card for a benny each and see what sticks.. I'm serious too and not joking..

                                          This is what I'm thinking -

                                          - JJ should win but he's been out of the Octagon forever and OSP has been improving. OSP is a decent fighter. OSP +450

                                          - Henry the Olympic gold medalist whom is currently undefeated could possibly surprise the champ Mighty Mouse with his wrestling... I doubt it but +365 tempting..

                                          - Edson Barboza should be game against Showtime period.. +160

                                          - Rafael Natal has been in with some of the best and even though I'm not very high on him he has been more hit then miss lately.. He's won 4 fights in a row now... This is probably gonna be a closer fight then most think.. Robert Wittiker isn't all that great himself.. Natal +300

                                          - Touchy Fili has fight experience over Rodrigues.. Fili has 18 pro fights compared to Rods 7... Fili +135...

                                          <small>UFC 197 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                          Sat 4/23 1001 Ovince Saint Preux <input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +425 <input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o2½ +185
                                          11:59PM 1002 Jon Jones <input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -550 <input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u2½ -225
                                          <small>UFC 197 - Flyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                          Sat 4/23 1101 Henry Cejudo <input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +350 <input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o4½ -200
                                          11:30PM 1102 Demetrious Johnson <input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -440 <input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u4½ +170
                                          <small>UFC 197 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                          Sat 4/23 1201 Edson Barboza <input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +155 <input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o2½ -110
                                          11:00PM 1202 Anthony Pettis <input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -175 <input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u2½ -110
                                          <small>UFC 197 - Middleweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                          Sat 4/23 1301 Rafael Natal <input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +285 <input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o2½ +100
                                          10:30PM 1302 Robert Whittaker <input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -345 <input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u2½ -120
                                          <small>UFC 197 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                          Sat 4/23 1401 Andre Fili <input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +130 <input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -175
                                          10:00PM 1402 Yair Rodriguez <input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -150 <input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +155
                                          Comment
                                          • JoshKnows46
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-27-12
                                            • 3691

                                            #22
                                            bjpenn, Fuzzy logic, at a certain point your brain moves information from your precocious into your subconscious, and its not that easy to remember, that's why its important to review film for every single card...also we live in a world where people are simply just black and white, your either amazing or you suck, there is no gray area, right not barboza is amazing, and pettis sucks, this is the reason you get line value in most fights. Mcgrgeor was amazing, he lost to a good fighter in diaz, under a tough spot where it was his first time beingat a reach disadvange, short notice, diffrent style match-up, first time at 170, he loses one fight, and now he sucks, its just the way people think, its the same way oddsmakers think, this generation doesn't have many deep thinkers that look pass the surface of anything.
                                            Comment
                                            • JoshKnows46
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-27-12
                                              • 3691

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                              I'm thinking dog play on this event so far.. These odds are off I think for the dogs anyways so far.. I may take every dog on the main card for a benny each and see what sticks.. I'm serious too and not joking..

                                              This is what I'm thinking -

                                              - JJ should win but he's been out of the Octagon forever and OSP has been improving. OSP is a decent fighter. OSP +450

                                              - Henry the Olympic gold medalist whom is currently undefeated could possibly surprise the champ Mighty Mouse with his wrestling... I doubt it but +365 tempting..

                                              - Edson Barboza should be game against Showtime period.. +160

                                              - Rafael Natal has been in with some of the best and even though I'm not very high on him he has been more hit then miss lately.. He's won 4 fights in a row now... This is probably gonna be a closer fight then most think.. Robert Wittiker isn't all that great himself.. Natal +300

                                              - Touchy Fili has fight experience over Rodrigues.. Fili has 18 pro fights compared to Rods 7... Fili +135...

                                              <small>UFC 197 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                              Sat 4/23 1001 Ovince Saint Preux <input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +425 <input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o2½ +185
                                              11:59PM 1002 Jon Jones <input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -550 <input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u2½ -225
                                              <small>UFC 197 - Flyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                              Sat 4/23 1101 Henry Cejudo <input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +350 <input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o4½ -200
                                              11:30PM 1102 Demetrious Johnson <input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -440 <input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u4½ +170
                                              <small>UFC 197 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                              Sat 4/23 1201 Edson Barboza <input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +155 <input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o2½ -110
                                              11:00PM 1202 Anthony Pettis <input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -175 <input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u2½ -110
                                              <small>UFC 197 - Middleweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                              Sat 4/23 1301 Rafael Natal <input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +285 <input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o2½ +100
                                              10:30PM 1302 Robert Whittaker <input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -345 <input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u2½ -120
                                              <small>UFC 197 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                              Sat 4/23 1401 Andre Fili <input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +130 <input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -175
                                              10:00PM 1402 Yair Rodriguez <input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -150 <input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +155

                                              Your gonna lose your ass, mighty mouse, jon jones, whittaker and pettis are all locks, massive line value in every fight, osp on short notice already has cardio issue, henry cardio and weight issue, both out classed everywhere as well.....barboza outclassed everywhere...huge striking advantage in the whittaker fight.
                                              Comment
                                              • JoshKnows46
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-27-12
                                                • 3691

                                                #24
                                                RIP NATAL

                                                Comment
                                                • JoshKnows46
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-27-12
                                                  • 3691

                                                  #25
                                                  i'll also be on whittaker and pettis 1st round finishes, whittaker by ko, and pettis by sub props as well. jon jones 2nd round finish as well, all easy money...mighty mouse finish in the 4th or 5th round is also easy cash, already large on that, with mighty mouse UDec at +145 as a hedge. I will absolutely brutalize the books with this card...
                                                  Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-18-16, 01:29 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GunShard
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-05-10
                                                    • 10031

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                    I'm thinking dog play on this event so far.. These odds are off I think for the dogs anyways so far.. I may take every dog on the main card for a benny each and see what sticks.. I'm serious too and not joking..

                                                    This is what I'm thinking -

                                                    - JJ should win but he's been out of the Octagon forever and OSP has been improving. OSP is a decent fighter. OSP +450

                                                    - Henry the Olympic gold medalist whom is currently undefeated could possibly surprise the champ Mighty Mouse with his wrestling... I doubt it but +365 tempting..

                                                    - Edson Barboza should be game against Showtime period.. +160

                                                    - Rafael Natal has been in with some of the best and even though I'm not very high on him he has been more hit then miss lately.. He's won 4 fights in a row now... This is probably gonna be a closer fight then most think.. Robert Wittiker isn't all that great himself.. Natal +300

                                                    - Touchy Fili has fight experience over Rodrigues.. Fili has 18 pro fights compared to Rods 7... Fili +135...

                                                    <small>UFC 197 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                                    Sat 4/23 1001 Ovince Saint Preux <input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +425 <input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o2½ +185
                                                    11:59PM 1002 Jon Jones <input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -550 <input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u2½ -225
                                                    <small>UFC 197 - Flyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                                    Sat 4/23 1101 Henry Cejudo <input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +350 <input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o4½ -200
                                                    11:30PM 1102 Demetrious Johnson <input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -440 <input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u4½ +170
                                                    <small>UFC 197 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                                    Sat 4/23 1201 Edson Barboza <input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +155 <input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o2½ -110
                                                    11:00PM 1202 Anthony Pettis <input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -175 <input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u2½ -110
                                                    <small>UFC 197 - Middleweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                                    Sat 4/23 1301 Rafael Natal <input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +285 <input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o2½ +100
                                                    10:30PM 1302 Robert Whittaker <input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -345 <input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u2½ -120
                                                    <small>UFC 197 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
                                                    Sat 4/23 1401 Andre Fili <input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +130 <input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -175
                                                    10:00PM 1402 Yair Rodriguez <input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -150 <input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +155
                                                    I say 4 out of 5 favorites win these.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • UncleChael
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-30-13
                                                      • 3979

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                      RIP NATAL

                                                      I'm with ya brother. Love watching this guy fight. Top 5 here we come.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                        • 83686

                                                        #28
                                                        ^ Robert Whittiker is not all that... Rafael Natal kinda sucks too though.. Natal is more lucky then good at times but his ground is better then Whittker and Rafael Natal finds ways to survive standing and stay active.. He's beaten Uriah Hall, Tom Watson and Chris Camozzi by decision in recent fights so he probably has a chance to out point Robert Whittiker..

                                                        Even though your gut says bet against Rafael Natal everytime he finds ways to win lately.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-Natal-13968



                                                        Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 12:25 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JIBBBY
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-10-09
                                                          • 83686

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                          Your gonna lose your ass, mighty mouse, jon jones, whittaker and pettis are all locks, massive line value in every fight, osp on short notice already has cardio issue, henry cardio and weight issue, both out classed everywhere as well.....barboza outclassed everywhere...huge striking advantage in the whittaker fight.
                                                          I can't argue the logic in your post - but Henry is undefeated and improving fight to fight (kicking ass and taking numbers), Jon Jones major ring rust (OSP punchers chance early on), Pettis is shorter, 2 fight losing streak and Barboza should use his speed and reach to win rounds on points (split dec win maybe), Rafael gets Whittaker down at some point and takes his back, advantage Rafael Natal on the ground..
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bjpenn85
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 02-17-11
                                                            • 5059

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                            I can't argue the logic in your post - but Henry is undefeated and improving fight to fight (kicking ass and taking numbers), Jon Jones major ring rust (OSP punchers chance early on), Pettis is shorter, 2 fight losing streak and Barboza should use his speed and reach to win rounds on points (split dec win maybe), Rafael gets Whittaker down at some point and takes his back, advantage Rafael Natal on the ground..
                                                            I think that whittaker quite easily wins over natal. Whittaker is also athletic and quicker which makes it even more difficult to take him down. Brian stann was asked by conor rebusch of who he thought were exciting these days and he replied: " A guy people try to duck now is Robert whittaker".

                                                            So..there you go. Cejudo is pretty basic, and you cant take down DJ because he moves all the time. DJ is smart, fast, ever improving. Cejodu by KO as a hedge is the only logical hedge. He has no advantages in this fight, if he was olympic gold medalist 10 times, it doesnt matter, good luck with the entries on literally a mouse with ever ending cardio. Dominick Cruz is the perfect guy to take DJ, hes fast, good movement and good mma wrestling. Cejudo isnt close to dominick cruz in any aspect. Its a complete mismatch what skills is concerned, can he KO DJ yes, part from that, not a chance.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JIBBBY
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-10-09
                                                              • 83686

                                                              #31
                                                              BJPenn good stuff I can't argue your logic.. Like Josh both make great points.. That's why all those fighters are heavy favorites..

                                                              Still can't a brother hit an all dog win card? This is MMA and the dogs haven't barked in a while on a UFC card... I'm thinking outside the box in this event and going with the high valued dogs.. If I hit a couple I win money..

                                                              I'm not crazy though as I will look to hedge the hell out of all these plays with good valued props


                                                              Locked and loaded!! Rolling the dice with the doggies in this one fellas!!!!.....

                                                              $100.00 $350.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo +350* <small>vs</small> Demetrious Johnson
                                                              $100.00 $425.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ovince Saint Preux +425* <small>vs</small> Jon Jones
                                                              $137.30 $391.30 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Rafael Natal +285* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
                                                              $250.00 $387.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Edson Barboza +155* <small>vs</small> Anthony Pettis
                                                              $100.00 $130.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Andre Fili +130* <small>vs</small> Yair Rodriguez
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JoshKnows46
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-27-12
                                                                • 3691

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                BJPenn good stuff I can't argue your logic.. Like Josh both make great points.. That's why all those fighters are heavy favorites..

                                                                Still can't a brother hit an all dog win card? This is MMA and the dogs haven't barked in a while on a UFC card... I'm thinking outside the box in this event and going with the high valued dogs.. If I hit a couple I win money..

                                                                I'm not crazy though as I will look to hedge the hell out of all these plays with good valued props


                                                                Locked and loaded!! Rolling the dice with the doggies in this one fellas!!!!.....

                                                                $100.00 $350.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo +350* <small>vs</small> Demetrious Johnson
                                                                $100.00 $425.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ovince Saint Preux +425* <small>vs</small> Jon Jones
                                                                $137.30 $391.30 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Rafael Natal +285* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
                                                                $250.00 $387.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Edson Barboza +155* <small>vs</small> Anthony Pettis
                                                                $100.00 $130.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Andre Fili +130* <small>vs</small> Yair Rodriguez
                                                                Dogs hit alot last card no? Seemed like it. Also you could have waited to play these, lines will get better on the 4 dogs i mentioned, the favorites will get public action and sharp action. Books will get cream pie,d this event, so much easy money....every favorite i mentioned should be atleast 250 points higher, some up to 750 points higher, jon jones and mighty mouse. Because barboza and Natal atleast have a very marginal chance at dec, while there's absolutly no chance for osp or henry.
                                                                Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-18-16, 12:06 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83686

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Hedge Props for profit I will be looking for with each fight -

                                                                  - Mighty Mouse by unanimous decision

                                                                  - JJ wins in 2nd or 3rd rounds or and by KO

                                                                  - Whittiker 1st round finish or and by KO

                                                                  - Anthony Pettis ITD or by KO

                                                                  - Rodriguez by decision
                                                                  Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 12:13 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • bjpenn85
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                                    • 5059

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                    BJPenn good stuff I can't argue your logic.. Like Josh both make great points.. That's why all those fighters are heavy favorites..

                                                                    Still can't a brother hit an all dog win card? This is MMA and the dogs haven't barked in a while on a UFC card... I'm thinking outside the box in this event and going with the high valued dogs.. If I hit a couple I win money..

                                                                    I'm not crazy though as I will look to hedge the hell out of all these plays with good valued props


                                                                    Locked and loaded!! Rolling the dice with the doggies in this one fellas!!!!.....

                                                                    $100.00 $350.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo +350* <small>vs</small> Demetrious Johnson
                                                                    $100.00 $425.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ovince Saint Preux +425* <small>vs</small> Jon Jones
                                                                    $137.30 $391.30 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Rafael Natal +285* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
                                                                    $250.00 $387.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Edson Barboza +155* <small>vs</small> Anthony Pettis
                                                                    $100.00 $130.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Andre Fili +130* <small>vs</small> Yair Rodriguez
                                                                    I feel your love, some dogs got to win. But if you look at it...Jon jones...betting against him..maybe the greatest of all time? Its probably not where you will fin value, its probably a ton of other props with similar value, that may hit.

                                                                    Cejudo, again, mighty mouse, probably one of the greatest, although he will never be remembered as such cause his nerdy persona, but again, +350 you will probably find literally 100 props of equal value, what a waste.

                                                                    Natal, horrible style matchup with little to no chance of hitting, but he at least has a sizable sumission advantage so never say never.

                                                                    Edson Barboza has value, but more on decision as you wont see barboza finish pettis, who has? Glass jaw meets a guy that most people try their best to not stand with for 5 sec. Watch tape on Pettis, its almost impossible because everyone tries to wrestle him up at the cage. Wathing pettis tape is watching 5-6 minutes with fence holding before pettis either Kos or submits people, its absurd. Barboza will be the first guy to ever stand with pettis for 3 rounds, in ufc history, i dont know how smart that is. I start to second guess this play now.

                                                                    Andre Fili - this is a guy with iron will, he may just give a flying f that rodriguez is technical. This is as the odds indicate the bet with a high chance of hitting.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JoshKnows46
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-27-12
                                                                      • 3691

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                      Hedge Props for profit I will be looking for with each fight -

                                                                      - Mighty Mouse by unanimous decision

                                                                      - JJ wins in 2nd or 3rd rounds or and by KO

                                                                      - Whittiker 1st round finish or and by KO

                                                                      - Anthony Pettis ITD or by KO

                                                                      - Rodriguez by decision
                                                                      You could have basically said your tailing JoshKnows post from number 25 in this thread, to make up for all the money I'm gonna lose on these dogs...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...