UFC Fight Night : Condit vs. Alves (May 30, 2015)

**tebowned** · 05-10-15, 03:51 PM

Like:
Charles Oliveira
Yan Cabral

Love:
Mirsad Bektic
Norman Parke

Depending on odds of course.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 05-24-15, 12:00 AM

next...

**JIBBBY** · 05-24-15, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

next...

Next indeed..

Just looking at this card at a quick glance I am immediately leaning towards Carlos Condit as I think he can out point and pick Thiago Alves apart standing.. Avoid getting KO'd or Sub'd out and probably walk away with a decision win is my best guess..

Even if Condit gets taken down he has a very active bottom guard.. Alves's face should get busted up in this one..

I'm jumping on this play now at -236 as I only see this line going up.... Carlos Condit should have his way in this fight are my thoughts anyways..

**agendaman** · 05-24-15, 03:00 PM

**JIBBBY** · 05-25-15, 11:34 AM

Nik Lentz vs Charles Oliveira -

My pre fight thoughts is that Nik Lentz is a possible dog play at +230... Reason being -

He's fought some of the best in division and has held his own.. American Top Team trained Lentz has been fighting well in the past 2 years going 4 and 1 in the UFC with his only loss being to Chad Mendez by decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nik-Lentz-15058.. If anything else Nik Lentz is very durable and a very good wrestler..

Charles "Do Bronz" Oliveira, just 25 years old already has 12 fights in the UFC, lost 4 and a 1 no contest in those 12. The no contest was with Nik Letz. That fight with Nick Lentz took place 4 years ago and I expect a better Nick Lentz to show up this go around in 2015...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Oliveira-30300

Do Bronz will have the reach advantage going in when standing so that is what scares me the most in picking the dog in Nick Lentz, but Nik should get inside and be able to take down Do Bronz at will just like he did in their first fight.. He clearly held the wrestling advantage in that first fight as shown in the video below.. Nik Lentz has always shown solid submission defense as well..

Lentz wins by decision might be something to consider when the props come out...

**Heyeverybody99** · 05-25-15, 03:50 PM

Who gives a shit about Nik Lentz?

**JIBBBY** · 05-25-15, 06:57 PM

KJ Noons is another slight dog that I expect to win on this card.. He sizes up well against this fill in fighter in Alex Oliveira anyways.. This kid is one fight deep in the UFC and hasn't fought and beat anyone with a name yet.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Oliveira-110143

KJ Noons has looked sharp in recent fights and is as tough as they come in the stand up.. Sam Stout found out by getting knocked out by Noons..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/KJ-Noons-6727. We know KJ Noons comes from a boxing back ground.. This kid Alex likes to strike and wrestle a bit. It's typically the strong wrestlers that beat KJ anyways and Alex is not that from what I can tell.. If this becomes a boxing/kick boxing match which I think it will most of the time I like KJ Noons to come away with the win...

Noons will walk this kid down, stuff his take downs and punish him..

Gonna try it at +110 I think.....

**JIBBBY** · 05-25-15, 07:19 PM

Liking the favorites in Norman Parke and Ryan Jimmo... I can't see any reason why either should lose..

**yacuna island** · 05-26-15, 07:44 AM

Oliveira looked good against Stephens and had a really competitive fight with Edgar.

Can Lentz win 2 rounds wrestling.... eh yeah maybe, but he's just as likely to get robbed by bullshit judges

Any case if you're going to bet Lentz it would be by decision.
That's the only way he'll win.

**JIBBBY** · 05-26-15, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by yacuna island

Oliveira looked good against Stephens and had a really competitive fight with Edgar.

Can Lentz win 2 rounds wrestling.... eh yeah maybe, but he's just as likely to get robbed by bullshit judges

Any case if you're going to bet Lentz it would be by decision.
That's the only way he'll win.

Lentz probably wins 2 rounds to 1 based on his anticipated aggressiveness, wrestling and top control.. At those odds I thought to give it a try anyways. Should be a closely contested fight either way and yeah there could certainly be a few judging robberies in these fights considering where this event is taking place.. Wouldn't be shocking to see Yacuna....

**Heyeverybody99** · 05-26-15, 12:44 PM

K.J. +110 is one of the best bets of the year

**PaperTrail07** · 05-26-15, 02:41 PM

Trinaldo is Crafty, cant totally overlook him....Like Bektic as well but -325 is stiff.....All over Condit here and will be betting Noons as well...GL...Also feel value is with the Carney

Originally posted by Heyeverybody99

K.J. +110 is one of the best bets of the year

**Mercersux** · 05-26-15, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Trinaldo is Crafty, cant totally overlook him....Like Bektic as well but -325 is stiff.....All over Condit here and will be betting Noons as well...GL...Also feel value is with the Carney

Condit after layoff and injury makes me a bit hesitant. Ill have to go back and check out alves last couple of fights. I recall he looked like garbage his first fight back post long layoff. I think his most recent fight he looked better. Guy always seems to shrink i big moments tho...

**JIBBBY** · 05-26-15, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Heyeverybody99

K.J. +110 is one of the best bets of the year

I wouldn't go so far as to say this is the best bet of the year pal.. Relax and slow your roll Heyever...

Gotta like Noons though..

Only problem I can envision is that KJ Noons doesn't kick much and could get kicked a bit by Alex O as he seems to have that range of striking in his arsenal.. Kicks do score points.. Alex also has the better ground game for sure if it ever goes there...

Noons blocks kicks pretty well though and keeps a tight defense when moving forward but most importantly his TD defense has been solid in recent fights.. KJ Noons has also learned to get back up to his feet quickly after being taken down.... I like Noons mainly because I know he will be the aggressor moving forward, maintain octagon control, has the better chin and will most likely get the better of Alex when throwing down with the hands..

As a dog play at +110 and considering the little roll KJ Noons has been on lately it's hard not to bet on him going into this one....

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/KJ-Noons-6727

**CaptChaos145** · 05-26-15, 10:34 PM

Noone has ever gotten the better of Thiago standing. Thiago has very good stand up. I think this will look similar to Condit/Woodley.

**UncleChael** · 05-26-15, 10:42 PM

I will play Formiga -155. Condit -250. maybe Damon Jackson +170?

**UncleChael** · 05-26-15, 10:44 PM

I think Alves chances are ... what Khabib would say.. "Lucky punch".

**JIBBBY** · 05-26-15, 11:02 PM

Event write ups -

CP - http://combatpress.com/2015/05/toe-t...d-predictions/

BR - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ves-fight-card

OB - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/f...-betting-odds/

**JIBBBY** · 05-26-15, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

I think Alves chances are ... what Khabib would say.. "Lucky punch".

Maybe Unc but we've never seen Condit rocked and or put to sleep with a punch or kick..... He's got good foot work, reach and the solid chin going into this one.....

Thiago Alves's only chance IMO is to land one or many of his strong lower leg kicks to that bad knee of CC's.. Thiago Alves can wind up with those... OUCH.. Send Carlos Condit right back to the hospital like after he fought Tyron Woodley..... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Carlos-Condit-6765

**CaptChaos145** · 05-26-15, 11:21 PM

Together they have almost 70 fights combined and neither has been knocked out with strikes while on the feet... pretty impressive. Here's met take on the fight... I like Thiago in a 3 rounder but this will be a 5 rounder. Alves has the better stand up. Condit is better on the ground but he won't be able to take Alves down. Thiago can work his way back to the top. He's talented. I also never saw anyone get the better of him on the feet.

**mirinquads** · 05-27-15, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Maybe Unc but we've never seen Condit rocked and or put to sleep with a punch or kick..... He's got good foot work, reach and the solid chin going into this one.....

Thiago Alves's only chance IMO is to land one or many of his strong lower leg kicks to that bad knee of CC's.. Thiago Alves can wind up with those... OUCH.. Send Carlos Condit right back to the hospital like after he fought Tyron Woodley..... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Carlos-Condit-6765

Only reason Condit wasn't TKO'ed was he landed that little cheeky knee to the body.

**JIBBBY** · 05-27-15, 03:48 AM

^^^So Miri ya on Thiago Alves then???

Carlos Condit is a tough dude regardless (Natural born killer right)? Representing well in recent fights for the most part...

You can clearly see that Carlos Condit will never give up and or get broken mentally in his fights unless he blows out knee. It's very apparent to me that it's very difficult to break this mans will is what I'm getting at..... Kinda like Nick Diaz but a more civil version....

I'll bet on that in a fighter every time if I think he's a winner and peaking at the right time.... Even if he's coming off an injury and chomping at the bit to get back into the UFC Octagon and get back in line for a title shot again.... Remember he just fought the best in the division to decisions even in his losses... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Carlos-Condit-6765

My take anyways for what ever it's worth in this post... Try to keep it simple and logical always.. It's just a fight...

Thiago Alves I think should catch a beating in this one me tinks with his reach disadvantage going in!!!.....

**mirinquads** · 05-27-15, 04:13 AM

Pitbull won last week, Pitbull wins this week. Just logic bro. As soon as one Pitbull starts losing, fade all Pitbulls. It's what I have done with the Assassins (Young assassin, Armenian assassin etc.)

Keep it to your self though, it's a strategy that has taken me a long time to develop, and it's straight money.

**bjpenn85** · 05-27-15, 06:29 AM

l o l

**JIBBBY** · 05-27-15, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Pitbull won last week, Pitbull wins this week. Just logic bro. As soon as one Pitbull starts losing, fade all Pitbulls. It's what I have done with the Assassins (Young assassin, Armenian assassin etc.)

Keep it to your self though, it's a strategy that has taken me a long time to develop, and it's straight money.

Great logic bro... lol... All in now...

**rocky16** · 05-27-15, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Pitbull won last week, Pitbull wins this week. Just logic bro. As soon as one Pitbull starts losing, fade all Pitbulls. It's what I have done with the Assassins (Young assassin, Armenian assassin etc.)

Keep it to your self though, it's a strategy that has taken me a long time to develop, and it's straight money.

Pal, I do find this particular strategy quite interesting. African assassin, Irish assassin, the dark assassin, baby faced assassin, and my favorite just simply the assassin. I will follow this closely over the next several events. However, I have found a slight hole in your pitbull strategy. I believe those phaget Brazilian brothers in bellator are both named pitbull. Very odd that brothers would choose the nickname pitbull, seems very unoriginal but I digress. Now I can't really tell who is who between the two but one of them loses quite often. I also believe that Armenian manlet Manny gamburyen is the pitbull, (maybe we can get that rag head Gabe to confirm on that, if he's still alive) and we all know he's terrible.

I do find this to be more profitable then most of the bet strategies you'll find on SBR, so I allpaud your for these efforts and the contribution as a whole to the forum. Lord knows we need better winning strategies than the current ones outlined by most of the degens here. I mean there was one phaget who picked rumble to win because cormier was "fat." Doesn't seem like sound logic now does it?

**PaperTrail07** · 05-27-15, 03:35 PM

Fighting - 24402 C. Condit -250 for Game
Fighting - 24405 N. Lentz +220 for Game
Fighting - 24410 KJ Noons +110 for Game
Fighting - 24414 R. Jimmo -260 for Game

**mirinquads** · 05-27-15, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by rocky16

Pal, I do find this particular strategy quite interesting. African assassin, Irish assassin, the dark assassin, baby faced assassin, and my favorite just simply the assassin. I will follow this closely over the next several events. However, I have found a slight hole in your pitbull strategy. I believe those phaget Brazilian brothers in bellator are both named pitbull. Very odd that brothers would choose the nickname pitbull, seems very unoriginal but I digress. Now I can't really tell who is who between the two but one of them loses quite often. I also believe that Armenian manlet Manny gamburyen is the pitbull, (maybe we can get that rag head Gabe to confirm on that, if he's still alive) and we all know he's terrible.

I do find this to be more profitable then most of the bet strategies you'll find on SBR, so I allpaud your for these efforts and the contribution as a whole to the forum. Lord knows we need better winning strategies than the current ones outlined by most of the degens here. I mean there was one phaget who picked rumble to win because cormier was "fat." Doesn't seem like sound logic now does it?

To be fair I think Manlet Gambrian won his last one, but only because Gabe sucked him off before the fight. He has tried the trick on Estavan Payan, but still he keeps losing. I think deep down Gabe knows it doesn't work at this point. But he still keeps it up.
It goes without saying that my model calls for auto fading Estavan Payan. (He has terrible in his nickname, for god sake.)

Cormier thing shouldn't be much of a surprise though. 90% of this forum only watches MMA so they can look at half naked, heavily muscled black guys.

**rocky16** · 05-27-15, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

To be fair I think Manlet Gambrian won his last one, but only because Gabe sucked him off before the fight. He has tried the trick on Estavan Payan, but still he keeps losing. I think deep down Gabe knows it doesn't work at this point. But he still keeps it up.
It goes without saying that my model calls for auto fading Estavan Payan. (He has terrible in his nickname, for god sake.)

Cormier thing shouldn't be much of a surprise though. 90% of this forum only watches MMA so they can look at half naked, heavily muscled black guys.

I thoroughly enjoyed fading that other armo phag Jared papazian. Made mucho dinero fading the career of papazian when Gabe blindly backed him at every turn. The fight against mike easton is one I'll never forget, more because Gabe talked up papazian so much and less because easton was a heavily muscled black man.

**mirinquads** · 05-27-15, 04:10 PM

Gabe has been a gold mine. I'd kiss him on the lips, but i'm not a smelly armenian, or heavily muscled black fellow, so I'm sure he'd turn me down.

And you can still fade him for free http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/g...p-for-ufc-187/

It's amazing they are not charging to fade his picks yet, would do way better numbers than their shitty premium plays.

**rocky16** · 05-27-15, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Gabe has been a gold mine. I'd kiss him on the lips, but i'm not a smelly armenian, or heavily muscled black fellow, so I'm sure he'd turn me down.

And you can still fade him for free http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/g...p-for-ufc-187/

It's amazing they are not charging to fade his picks yet, would do way better numbers than their shitty premium plays.

Thanks for the link bruh, really took me back to the good ole days.

**JIBBBY** · 05-28-15, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Fighting - 24402 C. Condit -250 for Game
Fighting - 24405 N. Lentz +220 for Game
Fighting - 24410 KJ Noons +110 for Game
Fighting - 24414 R. Jimmo -260 for Game

Crash and burn together Paper if they don't land...

**UncleChael** · 05-28-15, 02:26 AM

$16 to win $200 - Alves Round 2.. A little birdy told me it might hit.

**JIBBBY** · 05-28-15, 01:00 PM

Some props to consider - Most likely pathways to victory IMO if these fighters are to win..

Sat 5/30

1011 Condit wins by 5 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_105" name="radiox" type="radio">+211

Sat 5/30

1107 Lentz wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_132" name="radiox" type="radio">+300

Sat 5/30

1211 Noons wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_140" name="radiox" type="radio">+291

Sat 5/30

1309 Jimmo wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_145" name="radiox" type="radio">+156

Sat 5/30

1411 Parke wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_152" name="radiox" type="radio">-110

Would like to take the Jimmo by KO but that prop is not up on the board yet..