ho-ly shit. wish i had sportsbook right now. i would definitley make a small play on thiago +240.Originally Posted by illmatick
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03-07-12 06:09 PM #71
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03-07-12 06:22 PM #72
That line makes perfect sense to me. Silva hasn't beaten anyone of note to deserve anything lower than, especially against such a top tier fighter. I hope Silva line gets pounded.
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03-07-12 07:11 PM #73
I know you guys are doing what you're doing and are just having fun discussing the fights... Originally Posted by Vitooch
BUT, I really think we should do our best to keep our mouths shut on fights where the lines haven't opened and not discuss them... even just mentioning a name can give a lot away imo if any books feel you're a good capper on here...
They do look at this site and in all honesty I bet they view it as a very solid source when analyzing how to set the lines...
I know I'm barking up a burning tree and its been said before, but I just want to give my 2 cents that might help everyone on here out.
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03-07-12 07:24 PM #74
I know, I know! The MMA fan in me wants to discuss these fights sooo badly. I should shut my mouth though, sorry bout that Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA
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03-07-12 08:58 PM #75
Originally Posted by Vitooch
looks like it is getting pounded. -225 / +175 now.
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03-07-12 11:51 PM #76
i've said it before, we need a private chatroom we can meet up in
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03-08-12 09:14 AM #77
I think Thiago is more dangerous, but just because of his aggressiveness. But he used to be or maybe still is vastly overrated.
His mean look and aggressiveness seems to fool everyone into thinking he is a beast. I think Nog is a better fighter, although Silva is more dangerous. I see it as no harder or easier of a match.
Thiago really hasn't beat anyone. He is living off of catching Rashad with 1 good punch and not finishing him. He has lost his hard fights and hasn't really beat anyone worth a damn. His fights seem to be set up nicely for him, usually guys with little to no wrestling that will just stand in front of him to get KO'd. Jardine, Houston Alexander, Antonio Mendes....I mean these wins are basically the equivalent of beating up the gym's heavy bag.
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03-08-12 10:30 AM #78
This Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
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03-08-12 10:31 AM #79
Remember what happened the last time a rangey technical striker fought Silva. Machida knocked him out cold.
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03-08-12 11:38 AM #80
Silva's had slipped discs recently which have limited his mobility, agility and core strength. He has heavy hands which can unquestionably turn the tides of a fight, but then again so does Te Huna and Gustufsson avoided his power and early ground offense before subbing him. As long as Gus doesn't show the same striking defense as his fight with Hamill, he should be able to finish Thiago. That's a pretty big if though with a guy who needs just one opening.
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03-08-12 12:14 PM #81
If you are going to bet Gustaffson, I would recommend by KO or by KOTN
We know Silvas chin is not that great. Plus, this is in Sweden, and Dana is going to need to build a new name for Jones.
Giving Gustaffson KOTN will boost his credibility plus the hometown advantage
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03-08-12 01:08 PM #82
from mmajunkie:
Gustafsson, who fights in his home country, looks for his fifth straight UFC win following four stoppage victories. At -200, oddsmakers give him a 67 percent chance of winning to Silva's 38 percent. But Oddessa thinks Silva could be a solid play.
"Gustaffson actually has a tougher fight with Thiago Silva than the previous matchup against 'Lil Nog,'" Oddessa said. "Silva presents a different problem as he's probably the most explosive fighter he's fought so far. I think Thiago can hurt him. I think it's a winnable fight despite the venue, and I don't think it will go the distance, regardless of the outcome."
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03-08-12 02:09 PM #83
Who said Gus cant sub Thiago?
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03-08-12 05:57 PM #84
haha, dude I hear you. We all wanna present our insight, and I know the inner gambler in us all loves being the first one calling out the great pick for each card... I tend to let my ideas come out as well before the lines are out, but the past few months I've beendoing my best to keep my mouth shut! Obviously its a forum and discussing fights is what this place is for and there is no way of enforcing it, but I think in the end it will benefit everyone if we can all stay disciplined and not say anything until the line is out. Originally Posted by Vitooch
I'll say though, that you and I are thinking alike on this card
Cheers!
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03-08-12 06:00 PM #85
agree 100% with everything, well said. Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
Especially the part abput this match being not much different from lil nog (and I do agree rogerio is the all around better fighter).
This is a very hard fight for me to call, just as it was with lil nog. I will probably stay away unless thiago becomes a ridiculously tasty hot dog.
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03-08-12 06:03 PM #86
agree, that would be great to have a member's only forum or something... Originally Posted by gabe
But then one of us will be approached by kalikas or odessa, and might become a double agent for them...
Or who knows, maybe gabe IS mr. kalikas or odessa already...
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03-08-12 06:32 PM #87
ha- you can check me for a wire
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03-08-12 06:33 PM #88
we could have a private chat on AOL/AIM we hook-up in-- or we can start our own on chatzy.com
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03-08-12 06:36 PM #89
He may be overrated for some, but he gave rashad a very hard time. If he suffered from a proplased disc, most of the positions he had to survive during that fight are terrible for your back.Lying supine with flexed head is one of the worst positions for individuals with disc herniation problems. He beat vera easily and KOs many if not all of his opponents. KO prop is warranted IMO.
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03-08-12 07:14 PM #90
He did not give Rashad a hard time in my opinion. Rashad was able to take him down and control him pretty consistently. Rashad got caught in the end but I thought Rashad won that fight pretty convincingly.
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03-09-12 03:17 AM #91
The problem with some of these mma discussions is it becomes nearly impossible to determine validity with anything. What something means to someone means something completely different to another. What exactly does getting caught mean? more times than not it means either you got knocked out or close to it. I'm not saying that this is the context you are using this in here, but it's tiresome to hear a lot of people use that line as if it was luck. Thiago is a very dangerous opponent for gustaffson and should not be underestimated in the slightest. He has the ability to knock out gustaffson...end of story. Do I think gustaffson is going to win? the simple answer is yes. That being said thiago should definitely be looked at if the price is attractive. Originally Posted by Vitooch
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03-09-12 11:53 AM #92
Im saying that Rashad one that fight convincingly using his wrestling. For people to say he gave Rashad a tough time in that fight is wrong in my opinion. Not saying that the big punches Thiago landed at the end were lucky, but it was really the only offense Thiago mounted in the whole fight. Thiago always has a puncher's chance as proven in that fight, but he also falls victim to the more technical fighters. I will take Gus's well roundedand techncial, yet very dangerous skillset over Silvas punchers chance anyday.
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03-09-12 12:58 PM #93
Ok I see what your saying. I don't think gustafsson is quite as technical as your making him out to be, but at least you have a rationale for the pick. Do you think thiago should be at +200? Personally I think the fight is more even than that guess we'll just have to see come april 14th
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03-09-12 01:08 PM #94
Gust -175
Silva +155
should be the lines
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03-09-12 10:12 PM #95
agree with everything you said. But if he actually had a disc herniation, its impressive to be competitive against rashad. A healthy thiago is dangerous. I mean, he didnt have any problem with brandon vera.
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03-09-12 10:26 PM #96
He was also on roids.
And he didn't stay competitive in the Rashad fight. He caught Rashad on teh chin late like everyone does and was too tired to go for a finish. He didn't or couldn't do much of anything for pretty much all of the fight.
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03-10-12 08:38 AM #97
Vaguhany .. I am considering playing on 5dimes right now and making the switch from Pinnacle since they are not offering props !
I am just wondering What your betting limits are at 5dimes ! thanks
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03-10-12 11:41 AM #98
I have no clue where the value is here. As I don't know exactly what to expect from Thiago. He had back problems before, was on PEDs for his last fight, and has been out a year. No clue how he will look.
But the fight is in Swedan, and it is Gustaf's time. Regardless of the line, I think he wins this fight. He is the better striker. And is much more quick/athletic.
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03-15-12 03:32 PM #99
You have Brian Stann tho on main card who also has a high chance of getting a TKO/KO and is also a guy the UFC love so equals strong chance of KOTN Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy
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03-15-12 03:33 PM #100
$100 for props up until closer to fight time Originally Posted by helpplease
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03-15-12 03:34 PM #101
Thinking along same lines Originally Posted by gabe
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03-15-12 03:46 PM #102
You can bet more than $100 on props on fight night? Do your reduced juice limits increase as well? Originally Posted by Vaughany
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03-15-12 03:56 PM #103
Not sure about reduced limits. But I had $400 to win $250 on Benadvidez/Shitani to Not Go Distance at -160 for example Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
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03-15-12 04:01 PM #104
Weird, I have to sit there like an idiot and rebet and rebet and rebet. Luckily the turnarounds seem to be faster on the day of for me, 2-3 minutes even if the line hasn't moved. Originally Posted by Vaughany
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03-15-12 04:26 PM #105
dude.....in between these 2 slashes... / \...is about 10 thousand pounds of compressed "i really like the way you think and am glad you decided to join the fray".....well said,bud... Originally Posted by fosho14
i totally understand where the guys that are ready to throw down on the mauler are coming from.....he`s on a roll...he`s at home...he has a height advantage and is extremely well rounded....he`s becoming a fave of mine..... but i agree that silva is no joke and this has fotn written all over it(unless someone gets dummied early,which could happen).......
i really like this fight in the gustafsson career progression...and i agree with joey oddessa that this is a much rougher road to hoe than lil nog....
i really hope that silva isn`t penalized if he loses...this isn`t exactly a warm-up fight he`s taking after injury and an extended layoff....it`s a very ballsy decision he`s made fighting a guy with more than a handful of advantages coming into this one.....
i`m thoroughly looking forward to this one.....and thoroughly p.o.`ed that white threw in with "fuel t.v."......ridiculous...imo it shows what a total headcase dana`s become(but that`s another story for another day)......
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