1. 01-07-12 02:18 AM #36
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Why you guys liking stinson?

    I'm curious, from my research I was thinking saff's diverse striking and technique would prove much superior to stinson's boxing, but perhaps I'm missing something? Obviously a nice value in the line for stinson, but odds aside, why you favor stinson?

    I was thinking about paying the juice on saff at -340 but surprised to see so many on stinson and perhaps I am overlooking him... enlighten me.




    Thinking about playing mein as well, I think he is the best dog with regard to value / odds.

    Want to play larkin at that price, but really haven't been sold on him and his last fight showed some holes, and the first round against villante makes me feel mo will have his way on the mat and the clinch.

    Lines look pretty solid on this one, fellas. Tough favs, but nice dog prices! GL
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  2. 01-07-12 02:30 AM #37
    Jesus Christ
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    I love the way Stinson using his incredible length in his striking...if this stays standing I give Stinson a sizable advantage..Pamplona is a killer standing and Tyler massacred him...if Saff comes to grapple he has every advantage..my opinion is that he stays standing too long with Stinson and gets finished early...but who the hell knows these days GL.
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  3. 01-07-12 03:12 PM #38
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ View Post
    I love the way Stinson using his incredible length in his striking...if this stays standing I give Stinson a sizable advantage..Pamplona is a killer standing and Tyler massacred him...if Saff comes to grapple he has every advantage..my opinion is that he stays standing too long with Stinson and gets finished early...but who the hell knows these days GL.
    I agree with everything.

    One thing I wasn't thinking much about in my breakdowns was tyler's size. I tend to always overlook a fighters size advantage and it's cost me in the past.

    A boxer with significant reach could be problematic for a karate-ka / kickboxer like safff, although saff's kicks could neutralize the distance.

    A lot of people on the websites are saying saff is looking great at quest and might come in with a grappling minded gameplan. However, I'm not sold that his grappling is all too great, and I'm not sold that tyler's 5 sub losses reflect him as weak on the ground - most those losses were to legit grapplers. I tink saff is planning to test it on the feet ande if it doesn't work, he'll take tyler down and try to sub / out grapple him - something I am not confident he can capitalize on....

    This is a tough fight to call and I'm glad I didn't get overzealous and pay the juice on saff at -340 or above (now -370 on my site).

    After breaking this down I tihnk the odds are way off and saff is overvalued. Its sucks, because I am a firm believer in technique, and a firm believer that legit karate ka's have arguably the best striking defense in the game - all of which I believe will show saff is better on the feet - but I just can't pay that high price. I'd pay around -200 for saff but that's it.

    GL.
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  4. 01-07-12 03:53 PM #39
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Keeping it small tonight...

    69 on amagov (+145) to win 100

    50 on mein (+260) to win 130

    Really wanted to pay the juice on saff, but again, its just not worth it as those odds.

    Might play some over / unders if my damn site gets the lines up in time.
    GL everyone, should be a solid night of fights - I think they are all interesting and exciting match ups
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  5. 01-07-12 04:37 PM #40
    gabe
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    Saff/Stinson could be another Cerrone/Diaz where the boxer with the reach outstrikes the technical kickboxer.

    I think Stinson and Mein are good value plays, but Amagov is going to take this for sure. My advice is go big on him. Line went from +160 down to +125 for me.
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  6. 01-07-12 04:41 PM #41
    FightFightFight
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    Didn't amagov almost get finished last fight?
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  7. 01-07-12 04:48 PM #42
    gabe
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    He finished his last fight.
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  8. 01-07-12 04:54 PM #43
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Saff/Stinson could be another Cerrone/Diaz where the boxer with the reach outstrikes the technical kickboxer. I think Stinson and Mein are good value plays, but Amagov is going to take this for sure. My advice is go big on him. Line went from +160 down to +125 for me.
    There's no reason to be this confident on Amagov. Amagov has gaping holes in his striking defense and Lawler has enough power to KO almost anyone. I'm not knocking the play, more stating that there is no reason to be this confident. I'm on Lawler but it is more of an action play.
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  9. 01-07-12 05:18 PM #44
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by bogbat View Post
    There's no reason to be this confident on Amagov. Amagov has gaping holes in his striking defense and Lawler has enough power to KO almost anyone. I'm not knocking the play, more stating that there is no reason to be this confident. I'm on Lawler but it is more of an action play.
    By that logic, I should never be that confident in ANY underdog. The favorites usually have certain advantages over the dogs.

    I think this fight is going to be Amagov's coming out party. It's gonna put him on the map and possibly into title contention. I think he'll have superior striking and will score some nice takedowns. I could see him winning by KO, but more than likely I think he wins a Decision.

    I'm gonna trust my gut on this one.
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  10. 01-07-12 05:23 PM #45
    5mike5
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    you guys tot any nice UNDERDOG plays for tonight/??

    need the advice i dont watch many strikeforce events
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  11. 01-07-12 05:24 PM #46
    koscheckbaby
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    I don't have the guts to bet against Lawler in a standup fight after the horseshoe he pulled out of his asshole in that Melvin Manhoef fight.
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  12. 01-07-12 05:31 PM #47
    FightFightFight
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    He finished his last fight.
    Do you remember the guys name?
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  13. 01-07-12 05:40 PM #48
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by FightFightFight View Post
    Do you remember the guys name?
    Steve Guttenberg?
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  14. 01-07-12 05:42 PM #49
    gabe
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    Tony Soprano would have his money on Amagov 'cos he's a Chechnian rebel.

    (reference to season 3 episode "Pine Barrens")
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  15. 01-07-12 05:56 PM #50
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Two fights agao, Amagov's opponent was Ron Stallings - who gave Amagov problems in the 3rd round when Amagov gassed reeeeeal bad and his technique suffered greatly. Dude better not drop his guard against Lawler.

    In his most recent fight, Amagov finished Anthony Smith in the first round. Though, as noted in my concerns in my previous post, Amagov got baited into some wild flurries even in this short fight -- something he should try to avoid with Lawler.

    To my Amagov play, I'm adding a small play on Mein 'cos I hate Woodley, and a Steelers / Gmen / King Mo parlay.

    edit: Adding a 30:1 degen action parlay Lions ML / King Mo / Amagov / LSU.
    Last edited by Educ8d Degener8; 01-07-12 at 06:38 PM.
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  16. 01-07-12 06:07 PM #51
    koscheckbaby
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Tony Soprano would have his money on Amagov 'cos he's a Chechnian rebel.

    (reference to season 3 episode "Pine Barrens")
    And Paulie would think he was a Czechoslovakian.

    I like you just for referencing the amazing episode that is "Pine Barrens"
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  17. 01-07-12 07:06 PM #52
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
    And Paulie would think he was a Czechoslovakian.

    I like you just for referencing the amazing episode that is "Pine Barrens"
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  18. 01-07-12 07:07 PM #53
    gabe
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    I'm considering watching the fights on mute... this dude is getting on my nerves, what an annoying radio DJ voice.
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  19. 01-07-12 07:19 PM #54
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post

    edit: Adding a 30:1 degen action parlay Lions ML / King Mo / Amagov / LSU.
    I really like that parlay.
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  20. 01-07-12 07:20 PM #55
    proposition joe
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    Put 100 on Burrell. Kinda like Jardine's odds but no play for me
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  21. 01-07-12 07:25 PM #56
    gabe
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    I like Burrell a lot, he's gonna win.
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  22. 01-07-12 07:26 PM #57
    proposition joe
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    I like Burrell a lot, he's gonna win.
    +140 is a joke
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  23. 01-07-12 09:03 PM #58
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Good job on Burrell guys. I love fading Cung Le fighters but didn't pull the trigger on that one
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  24. 01-07-12 09:13 PM #59
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    go time!

    let's get the live betting running
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  25. 01-07-12 09:13 PM #60
    terpkeg
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    Saffiedine by KO,TKO, DQ +400 seems high, no? live
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  26. 01-07-12 09:14 PM #61
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    I'm considering watching the fights on mute... this dude is getting on my nerves, what an annoying radio DJ voice.
    He talks like that all the time. Even on his podcast. Anyway, you do the same thing in your videos.
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  27. 01-07-12 09:25 PM #62
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    Saffiedine should go for the takedown in the 3rd
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  28. 01-07-12 09:28 PM #63
    more_betterness
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    Does anybody else hate Mauro Ranallo as much as me?
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  29. 01-07-12 09:32 PM #64
    Giblets
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    Great first fight.
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  30. 01-07-12 09:41 PM #65
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by more_betterness View Post
    Does anybody else hate Mauro Ranallo as much as me?
    Mauro gets so much hate, but I have so much more loathing for Michael Schiavallo. Every catchphrase, the way his bottom lip moves, the way he comments on all the fighters physiques, ugh.
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  31. 01-07-12 09:46 PM #66
    more_betterness
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Mauro gets so much hate, but I have so much more loathing for Michael Schiavallo. Every catchphrase, the way his bottom lip moves, the way he comments on all the fighters physiques, ugh.
    Oh god, don't even get me started. Id listen to a foreign language telecast before Id listen to them if they ever were together on a broadcast team.
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  32. 01-07-12 10:03 PM #67
    bogbat
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    I usually hate stand ups but most refs would have stood that up 4 or 5 times.
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  33. 01-07-12 10:07 PM #68
    Educ8d Degener8
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    And Tyron "The Wet Blanket" Woodley remains undefeated...
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  34. 01-07-12 10:10 PM #69
    sideloaded
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    woodley is a piece of shit fighter how can anyone be his fan? He doesn't fight.
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  35. 01-07-12 10:13 PM #70
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    woodley is a piece of shit fighter how can anyone be his fan? He doesn't fight.
    He reminds me of a shitty version of Guida.
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