[Beelzebubzy]

Milller SOTN
Guillard KOTN

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Miller bet down to -166 on Pinnacle

[FightFightFight]

Miller bet down to -166 on Pinnacle

I couldn't pass up a line like that on guillard.

[proposition joe]

I give the wrestling and standup to Guillard. I think that Melvin will play it relatively safe and coast to a sprawl-and-jab decision.

[bogbat]

I give the wrestling and standup to Guillard. I think that Melvin will play it relatively safe and coast to a sprawl-and-jab decision.

You may be underestimating Jim Miller's wrestling here man.

[bjpenn85]

and you may underestimating the importance of the combination of speed and athleticism. How well did Dunham, Roller or waylon lowe do? Plus i think that the line movement will be enough to get a free bet here.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

and you may underestimating the importance of the combination of speed and athleticism. How well did Dunham, Roller or waylon lowe do? Plus i think that the line movement will be enough to get a free bet here.

Melvin is quick but let's not compare Jim Miller to Shane Roller or Waylon Lowe

[bjpenn85]

Gleison tibau did also try to wrestle Guillard with limited successes. If it was clay guida, i would have been more careful. But i dont think Miller can keep the same pace, or be as relentless as him. I went over board with waylon lowe and roller, but my point remains. It is very difficult to control guillard for three rounds, or take him down without him scrambling back up. I think Miller will need to knock him down and submit him to win. My hedge will probably be Jim Miller SOTN.

[Vaughany]

Gleison tibau did also try to wrestle Guillard with limited successes. If it was clay guida, i would have been more careful. But i dont think Miller can keep the same pace, or be as relentless as him. I went over board with waylon lowe and roller, but my point remains. It is very difficult to control guillard for three rounds, or take him down without him scrambling back up. I think Miller will need to knock him down and submit him to win. My hedge will probably be Jim Miller SOTN.

IMO Tibau won rounds 1 and clearly round 3 of that fight with Guillard and deserved the win. Although he didnt do much damage he did take Guillard down a couple times in first round, once in second round and had most success in the third when he took him down and got full mount twice. ROnnys Torres also took his back and had very promising positions but Guillard showed much improved submission defence and composure. If Jim Miller gets in to similar positions as Tibau did then I think he'll be a lot more clinical and aggressive on the ground. I agree though that a smaller guy in Miller will not find it easy getting the takedown as Guillard has great balance and half-decent wrestling himself. I actually think a Lauzon situation is more likely with Miller dropping Guillard in second or third round - Guillard's tendency to keep his hands down is always a cause for concern. Roller tagged him with a left-hook that shook him a little. Clearly though, Guillard will probably be more cautious in this fight after the loss to Lauzon, and incorporate a similar gameplan to the Stephens fight (although he also got clipped early in tht fight but recovered), especially as he thinks it might be for a title shot. On the flipside I guess you could also argue that he may need to be aggressive and win in stunning fashion being first to finish Miller in order to get a title shot as I dont see how beating Miller by decision after losing to Lauzon is enough to be a contender. These questions are stopping me from playing Miller at -150 on Pinnacle at moment. The main reason for me liking Miller though is the clear mental/psychological advantage and physical toughness advantages that he has over Guillard. IMO I think these far outweigh any advantages that Guillard has in speed and striking. Miller is going in to this fight knowing that Guillard won't want to take him down (unlike with the Henderson fight) so only has to be concerned with Guillard's stand-up. Guillard on other hand has to be aware of Miller's grappling and also his under-rated striking. Miller outstruck Ludwig before submitting him, got the nod over Tibau because of his striking, only fighter to finish Shalorus, and even dropped Henderson in the second round of their fight despite getting battered for 3 rounds!

[proposition joe]

Both Lowe and Roller are better takedown guys than Miller. Not better fighters by any means though. And I do not think that Guillard can finish Jim. Guillard by Decision would be my bet if I could

[proposition joe]

You may be underestimating Jim Miller's wrestling here man.

I very well may be. Underestimating a fighter's abilities is a risk we all take when placing bets!

[Vaughany]

Both Lowe and Roller are better takedown guys than Miller. Not better fighters by any means though. And I do not think that Guillard can finish Jim. Guillard by Decision would be my bet if I could

Im not so sure about that, Roller maybe is but neither have the pace and cardio that Miller possesses. Miller took Shalorus down and took his back, he absolutely dominated Wiman for three-rounds with take-downs and GnP/sub attempts. Miller's wrestling defence might not be great, but then that is partly because he is so comfortable looking for the guillotine or working off his back...but this is irrelevant anyway as it's hardly likely that Guillard will look to take Miller down. Also, Miller isnt afraid to pull guard or look for crazy subs. We all saw the Oliveira sub which was a shocker, and against Shalorus he pulled guard looking for a guillotine in the first and went for a flying triangle in the second. I do agree that I find it hard imagining Guillard finishing Miller - especially seeing as I expect him to be more cautious and implement the same strategy that he used against Lil Heathen rather than more recently when he got complacent. To finish Jim Miller you are gonna have to land a perfect solid punch or a flying knee/head kick or something like BJ Penn against Sherk! Of course Guillard has the ability to do this but would involve taking some risks

[Jordan23]

The UFC really went all out for their debut on FX (insert joke).

[FightFightFight]

Miller is much quicker than those guys. Makes all the difference in taking down a guillard. Doubt miller takes him down from clinch. But in the middle of the ring, for sure he could. Still like guillard to win.

[Vaughany]

The UFC really went all out for their debut on FX (insert joke).

Im actually really interested in this card. Full of entertaining matches. Although they are both bottom of the ladder Morecraft vs Barry will be fun! Neer/Ludwig will be awesome, Guillard/Miller is great stylistically. Anyone of those could be FOTN on any card. Shame that Stone pulled out of the Easton fight as well because that would of been great. Brenneman vs Roberts and Shalorus vs Nurma are also interesting

[Vaughany]

Red Schafer's blog... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9J9z5t71aU

[koscheckbaby]

Anyone think Jim Miller might be too white for Guillard? Think about the Millers. They are tough, hard-workers, but not very athletic. They've both endured some ass whoppings at their respective weights and made it to decision. It's possible Guillard's blackness propels him to victory, as he's just too fast for Miller, who a green Grey Maynard outstruck thoroughly. Or it's possible Miller just is too tough for Guillard and cracks him and subs him while hurt.

I think Christian Morecraft is a can though and can't put any money on him unless he's fighting King Can Sean McCorkle. Pat Barry's takedown D hasn't been terrible since the Cro Cop disaster. He actually warded off Joey Beltran pretty well, who was relentless in trying for the takedown. He also was too quick for Kongo to get a good shot on, which surprised the hell out of me. Figured that'd be an easy takedown.

[Vaughany]

Anyone think Jim Miller might be too white for Guillard? Think about the Millers. They are tough, hard-workers, but not very athletic. They've both endured some ass whoppings at their respective weights and made it to decision. It's possible Guillard's blackness propels him to victory, as he's just too fast for Miller, who a green Grey Maynard outstruck thoroughly. Or it's possible Miller just is too tough for Guillard and cracks him and subs him while hurt.

I think Christian Morecraft is a can though and can't put any money on him unless he's fighting King Can Sean McCorkle. Pat Barry's takedown D hasn't been terrible since the Cro Cop disaster. He actually warded off Joey Beltran pretty well, who was relentless in trying for the takedown. He also was too quick for Kongo to get a good shot on, which surprised the hell out of me. Figured that'd be an easy takedown.

Firstly Jim Miller and Dan Miller are very different. Jim Miller's striking is much better and his transitions are superior. Jim's striking has evolved a lot since that Maynard fight - he dropped Ludwig before finishing who supposedly is one of the best stikers in LW and WW divisions, he dominated Shalorus with striking and is only fighter to finish him, he won the Tibau fight because he got the better of the stand-up - rocking Tibau at least three times. And despite getting dominated by Benson he still dropped him with a counter in I believe the second round, maybe the third. Yes, Guillard will be quicker and more athletic but will that be enough I don't know...Miller is pretty good at closing angles and grabbing hold of his opponent..and he wont just look for doubles or singles...he'll pull guard, look for guillotines or just jump on Guillard's back!

Did Kongo even look for a takedown in those first couple minutes? I think Kongo's gameplan was the same as the one against Mitrione - stand for a round or 2 and let Barry get comfortable then look for takedowns - turned out he got dropped tho so didnt get a chance! Difference with Morecraft is that he's bigger than likes of Beltran. Yes he is bottom of the ladder but so is Barry. I'll take Morecraft at a decent dog price or play Morecraft in Round 1 before he gasses out.

[koscheckbaby]

Thought Kongo tried to get inside and Barry was just too quick for it.

Yeah, Jim is definitely better than Dan, but I think Jim might be a bit overrated, since he has been dominated his share too. Bendo almost had him finished. Bocek, Guida, and Pettis did way better. But you could be on to something with Jim Miller just not caring about being on his back. Doesn't help versus wrestlers though, which luckily Guillard is not or at least shouldn't use.

[koscheckbaby]

I was thinking Barry-Morecraft might be close odds wise. You guys seem to think Morecraft will be a good sized dog. Not sure. Barry's ground weakness is out in the open, especially after subbed by that tall piece of shit can Struve. But his TDD hasn't been an issue lately.

[Vaughany]

Thought Kongo tried to get inside and Barry was just too quick for it.

Yeah, Jim is definitely better than Dan, but I think Jim might be a bit overrated, since he has been dominated his share too. Bendo almost had him finished. Bocek, Guida, and Pettis did way better. But you could be on to something with Jim Miller just not caring about being on his back. Doesn't help versus wrestlers though, which luckily Guillard is not or at least shouldn't use.

Yee well that's the thing...Jim Miller has only got to worry about Guillard's striking (and probably only boxing as Guillard might be weary of throwing too many kicks in case due to take-down threat), whilst Guillard has to worry about Miller's striking and more significantly his grappling. This will be refreshing for Miller seeing as his last few fights all of his opponent's main strengths have been grappling rather than striking (even if they were/are proficient enough at striking as well) in Bocek, Tibau, Oliveira and Ben Henderson.

[Vaughany]

I was thinking Barry-Morecraft might be close odds wise. You guys seem to think Morecraft will be a good sized dog. Not sure. Barry's ground weakness is out in the open, especially after subbed by that tall piece of shit can Struve. But his TDD hasn't been an issue lately.

Not saying he will necessarily be a decent sized dog, just saying that I'll probably play him if he is, which isn't beyond realms of possibility that he is +150 to +200 range either at opener or after Barry fans have bet him. Struve was +150 to +170 dog against him, and Barry has been favourite against all of his opponents apart from Kongo and Hardonk.

[The HOFF]

I don't know like a third of the fighters on this card! I do like Schafer but want to see the line.

[SportsPedagogy]

i have been training at Ludwigs school. He looks crisp. He is still instructing students this close to the fight, which i think is good because it keeps you focused on the fundamentals. He is also a purple belt in BJJ, which i didnt know before ... pretty crazy, i saw him catch a guy in an inverted Triangle. during training.

[Vaughany]

i have been training at Ludwigs school. He looks crisp. He is still instructing students this close to the fight, which i think is good because it keeps you focused on the fundamentals. He is also a purple belt in BJJ, which i didnt know before ... pretty crazy, i saw him catch a guy in an inverted Triangle. during training.

That's cool. He's so experienced that I guess he should be pretty proficient in BJJ by now tho. He's developed his all round game for sure...used takedowns against Sadollah to guarantee rounds which was very smart

[SportsPedagogy]

That's cool. He's so experienced that I guess he should be pretty proficient in BJJ by now tho. He's developed his all round game for sure...used takedowns against Sadollah to guarantee rounds which was very smart

i got to the team just after that fight. His BJJ coach made a good bit off of it. He said he looked at the matchup as teacher vs student because Ludwig has students who are around Sadollahs level in striking. He was a big dog in that match too. I have trying to talk him into coming on here and making picks. (His BJJ coach, not Ludwig) he has been pretty solid whenever we talk about future matches.

[proposition joe]

The only problem with Moorecraft is that he appears to be extremely finishable and not necessarily a great strategic fighter. At even odds, I'll take Barry. The best way to play this fight is Barry by KO and Moorecraft by TKO, I would assume.

[Beelzebubzy]

Brenneman will be my only play on this card.

he has a fierce pace that will gas out the cardio-less Roberts after 1 round.

[Vaughany]

Jim Miller interview where he talks about his illness going in to/during the Ben Henderson fight (he had mononucleosis and a kidney infection)... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...v=c8E1Bb29L2g#!

[bjpenn85]

ahh fukk me..my capping of benson relies on the performance against miller.

[bjpenn85]

is based on

[gabe]

I'm most looking forward to Mike Easton vs Jared Papazian.

I feel like Guillard is gonna by by knockout.

[SportsPedagogy]

I'm most looking forward to Mike Easton vs Jared Papazian.

I feel like Guillard is gonna by by knockout.

Easton will probably win this match, but look to fade him vs a wrestler. Lloyd Irvin was desperately trying to bring in a big name wrestler to work with Easton because that is such a big weakness for him.

[eligibletackle]

I like Guillard here. Miller has a well above average wrestling and BJJ combo that makes him seem like the ideal fighter to beat Guillard. The speed, power, & explosion advantage should be all Guillard here. I'm banking on the Lauzon loss being a head-check and he will fight smart and not cocky.

[proposition joe]

Easton will probably win this match, but look to fade him vs a wrestler. Lloyd Irvin was desperately trying to bring in a big name wrestler to work with Easton because that is such a big weakness for him.

I certainly hope the books agree with you