[scofflaw]

I wanted to make a thread to track my betting progress and maybe contribute to the discussion a little. Starting out with UFC 140, I'm way too parlay heavy because I only like favs this event. (units)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - 5.25 to win 2.5
Krzysztof Soszynski - .6 to win .3
Frank Mir - 3.75 to win 1.5
John Makdessi - 1.5 to win .9

Jones, Hominick - 2.5 to win 1.25
Jones, Hominick, Lil Nog - .5 to win .75
Jones, Hominick, Overeem - 1.25 to win 1.8
Jones ITD, Mir by decision - .25 to win 1.5
Mir, Hominick - 1.25 to win 1
Mir, Overeem - 2.25 to win 1.7
Mir, Jabouin - .25 to win .3

+ a couple deep micro parlays. Good luck tonight everyone.

[scofflaw]

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - 5.25 to win 2.5
Krzysztof Soszynski - .6 to win .3
Frank Mir - 3.75 to win 1.5
John Makdessi - 1.5 to win .9

Jones, Hominick - 2.5 to win 1.25
Jones, Hominick, Lil Nog - .5 to win .75
Jones, Hominick, Overeem - 1.25 to win 1.8
Jones ITD, Mir by decision - .25 to win 1.5
Mir, Hominick - 1.25 to win 1
Mir, Overeem - 2.25 to win 1.7
Mir, Jabouin - .25 to win .3

Well the night wasn't a disaster but it felt like a big loss. The Hominick loss sunk the whole night from the start. It reminded me a lot of Guilliard/JLau, in that the arguably superior fighter doesn't take his opponent seriously and looks foolish. I'll use it as a learning experience and make an effort not to parlay 'locks' that hard.

UFC 140: -2.3

For the upcoming Strikeforce I'm on Masvidal inside @ +650. That price was too good to pass up and makes an excellent hedge. While I think Melendez should win the fight by brutality, Masvidal is the larger fighter, his technical abilities are sharp and this is a 5 round fight. I'm waiting on the line to move closer to possibly buy out of it.

Masvidal wins inside distance - .75 to win 4.9
Santos v Yamanaka fight won't finish 2 - 1.25 to win 1

I haven't spent a whole lot of time on UFC 141 match ups so far, but I like Overeem at his current price. This is MMA and it could swing either way, but since we're gambling here I gotta take Reem for the vast experience advantage.

Brock is coming in from a long layoff with surgery and hasn't looked good in his last fights, IMO it's unusually difficult to get a good read on where Brock is at.. On the flip side, Reem relies too much on blocking shots instead of moving out of the way, and he doesn't take a hit that well. I'd give the cardio nod to Brock as well. If Lesnar is able to drag this deeper, he'll probably win via GnP. I still gotta take Reem though.

Mir, Overeem - 2.25 to win 1.7
Overeem - 5 to win 3

Also like Nunes, fading Riddle, Njokuani, Diaz as a dog, small on Fitch. Nothing official yet though.

[scofflaw]

Back from the dead to drill UFC on FX: Browne vs Silva. Those previous picks are embarrassing, Here's my fresh slate with new embarrassing picks, and real values.

168.75 to win 75 - Browne
54.59 to win 64.55 - Browne, Stephens
45 to win 31.04 - Browne ITD
30 to win ?? - Jones,Browne, Aldo (Cancelled)
30 to win 42.19 - Browne, Erick Silva
25 to win ?? - Jones, Bisping, Browne, Gustaf, Aldo (Cancelled)
25 to win 34.33 - Stephens, Volkmann
20 to win 47.95 - Stephens, Neer, Johnson
15 to win 21.31 - Stephens, Pierce
12 to win 10 - LeVessuer
10 to win 62 - Struve, Browne, E Silva
10 to win 14 - Ellenberger ITD
5 to win 70.97 - Browne, Neer, Stephens, Johnson, Volkmann, E Silva, Anderson
5 to win 62.34 - Browne, Neer, Stephens, Johnson, Volkmann, LeVessuer
5 to win ?? - Jones, Browne, Tavares, Melendez (Cancelled)
1 to win 7.86 -Struve, Pickett, Browne, Tavares, Anderson
.5 to win 6.43 - Jones, Bisping, Struve, Browne, E Silva, Anderson

Risking this much on Travis Browne isn't smart. I felt really good about him winning as soon as I heard it booked. Now I'm shook after seeing Bigday's video of Bigfoot's speed and some other breakdowns. I'm still going with my gut feeling that Browne will finish Bigfoot before round 3, or at least be evasive and not get taken down to win a decision.

[Vaughany]

Welcome back brah