[mebaran]

Earlier this year when the Brock Lesnar/Alistair Overeem fight was annoucned (scheduled for Dec. 30th), I placed a bet on Overeem when the lines were -115 on both sides. I've been checking in a lot, and the line has moved to -170 on bkmkr.

My questions are:

A) Though the market is extremely small ($250 limits up until fight night usually) and the sport is extremely volatile, isn't there a great amount of value in handicapping mma matches? I haven't really found an efficient way to model mma matches, but have been doing well by "fundamentally" analyzing each match (akin to the stock market when using fundamental analysis). It seems to me that by picking the right side (line agreement side) most fights, you are presented with a ton of arbitrage, and usually a straight up win anyways.

B) Is there enough relevant data to create a somewhat "simple" mma predictive model? I have an idea of where I'd like to start...but it comes down to a time commitment and whether it would be worth my time.

[tokio]

Honestly, it isnt a sport you can cap. You gotta follow the sport and the fighters. IMO, no model will be successful trying to handicap MMA

[mebaran]

Honestly, it isnt a sport you can cap. You gotta follow the sport and the fighters. IMO, no model will be successful trying to handicap MMA

Do you have any statistical basis for that comment (or know anyone/anywhere that does)? My first thoughts were that you need to just closely follow a ton of fighters "qualitatively"..but I was just probing.

[TheCalculator]

Do you have any statistical basis for that comment (or know anyone/anywhere that does)? My first thoughts were that you need to just closely follow a ton of fighters "qualitatively"..but I was just probing.

You should join us in the "BOXING-MMA" forum. Tons of successful handicappers there. However -- the only true "edge" is your ability to assessing fighter's skills and then your ability to "match them up" before they fight... and then run your winning ratio against the odds and see if there's value.

[Vaughany]

Do you have any statistical basis for that comment (or know anyone/anywhere that does)? My first thoughts were that you need to just closely follow a ton of fighters "qualitatively"..but I was just probing.

If you're talking about catching opening lines and predicting line movement, then yep it's all about gaining experience and understanding patterns. I've got to the point now where I have a general inkling of how a line will move when I see an opener - at least more often than not I'm right - which leads to a lot of arb opportunities. For instance Lil Nog opened at -150 against Tito - it was obvious that Lil Nog was going to get more action so I put money on that. I now have option to arb out if I want as Tito is at +177 range and will probably only keep rising! Only way you get a feel for this IMO is through following opening lines for a while and seeing general patterns - and obviously get a feel on forums before lines come out on who people are favouring.

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

You just have to know fighters and their tendencies. Know what certain fighters a re good at and what some of them are capable of. I'm a long time mma fan ( 15 years) and follow the sport very closely. Usually on a given card, 10-11 fights, i'm usually correct on about 8. For instance on the 139 card I was 5 for 5 on the main card.