Originally Posted by
varkolek
I was going to split out a portion of my bankroll and use it with my bracketed probabilities. Like if I think the fight is even go with a conservative estimate, 40%, if I think one fighter has an advantage 60%, etc. But I realised the formula is too sensitive for that.
At odds of -300 or 1.333... the stake at 75% probability is zero % of BR, but 20% of your bankroll at 80% probability:
at 76 is 4
77 is 8
78 is 12
79 is 16
So the portion of your bankroll is zero at 75, but climbing at 4% for each percentage of probability. That got mentioned in one of the threads I linked to. At quarter Kelly stakes you might bet 0 at 75% and 5% BR at 80%, but I don't have confidence in my ability to estimate within +/- 5% of who is going to win.
For other sports it is probably possible to estimate to greater accuracy than 5% but I only bet on combat sports so far.
Also, I read some of Ganchrow's articles and realised Kelly staking isn't just betting heavy on dogs. In terms of edge, you bet less on dogs and more on favourites.