[ReBEL`LiON]

I'm taking;

Diaz over penn +3.5 -195 spread
Siver over cerrone +3.5 -115 spread
Palaszewski over t.griffin +3.5 -130 spread

I think penn/diaz will be a good scrap. Both have incredible chins and will outlast a decision. Diaz will turn it on in the later rounds and do enough to win a decision. If not, lose a close 29-28 fight which covers the spread.

Against siver/cerrone I don't see this fight going to the ground unless someone gets knocked down. Cerrone comes to trade but siver is not a slouch on the feet. I can see siver losing a close fight or he can win a tough stand up battle. Coupled with great tdd and good technique on the feet, he can def hang with cerrone maybe beat him standing outright. 29-28 could still cover siver losing.

Tyson griffin hasn't finished his fights in the ufc and bart is pretty well rounded where ever the fight ends up. This is a live matchup but I'm giving the edge to tyson because he is proven durable grappling and has the wrestling edge over bart. One thing to note though is tyson weighed in 3 lbs over the limit. It could either mean he suffered an injury or he had a bad weight cut. Still, I based this pick off bart being a gamer and a seasoned vet. Again, 29-28 still covers.

These picks I believe are close fights. Could go either way but I see it going to a decision with todays bad judging, you never know.

[Vitooch]

How does the point spread work in MMA?

[GunShard]

Is that point spread based on rounds? Those are non title fights.

[cheeese]

It's based on judge's scores. So 29-28 across the board is equal to -3. If your fighter finishes it is scored a win. In my opinion it works best when your have a fight that should be easy to score eg. Sonnen/Stann. Where one fighter has to get it to the ground to win and if he cant he gets KOed. So you shave juice but are protected against fluke finishes.

[MMAbetMASTA]

interesting post. Liked your breakdown on cerrone / siver, I agree. I know a lot of peopel are on cerrone and rightfully so as was I, but I've been thinking long and hard about this fight and I am actually leaning toward siver now. If cerrone wins he wins by sub, otherwise I think siver wins a ud or tko. I can't give cerrone the edge in stand up, he didn't impress against vagner, hasn't impressed against guys with mediocre striking, and his tko of aloe (while I lost on aloe) I think was more a result of aloe being undersized against a good sized lw in cerrone. His tds are not something special imo, and siver's tdd should keep it on the feet, where I think he is the stronger and more damaging striker. Cerrone's striking volume might overwhelm siver, but I don't think it happens. Prob gonna put something small str8 on siver or throw him in a couple parlays.

[Vaughany]

Think Bart is best underdog value on this card

[ReBEL`LiON]

btw, if either fighter i choose win inside the distance, thats a win.

edit: just to clarify,

if diaz were to lose the first round, and ALSO lose the second round, but win in the 3rd round. the likely scorecard for all three judges would be 29-28 unanimous decision for BJ penn. So BJ wins by -3 pts, but he didnt cover the 1/2 point that I got for diaz.

you get the flexibility if you're fighter loses, wins by decision, or finish the fight.

these fights are highly likely imo to go the decision

[ReBEL`LiON]

I've watched cerrone since he was on that tapout show and he's a great fighter. Very tough and comfortable off his back. But he is very hittable because he relies on his toughness to get through. If u watched varner 1, varner was hitting him with some shots and was looking like he was going to win the decision.

cerrone is still improving and has great upside in the future, but siver will be fighting a technical match and picking his shots on when to trade blows. he won't get KO'd but if cerrone would to finish siver, it would be a sub.

[Mr.Kitty]

Think Bart is best underdog value on this card

The fact that Griffin came in three pounds over was very interesting. I´ve been torn in this matchup, I can see how Bart wins by using his size and improved wrestling stuffing takedowns and outstriking Griffin to earn a decision or KO. At the same time Griffin is very technically sound, great legkicks and good wrestling. The two areas Bart has been weak defensively. If Griffin´s had a bad weight cut or illness it could affect his conditioning and overall explosiveness. If so, Bart will have a easier time dealing with him. And especially if you look at the fact that the most likely road to victory for Griffin is by decision.

Does anyone know why he was overweight? and how much he actually cuts?

[Hannibal]

Excuse my ignorance...but how are point spreads calculated?
how do you get 3 pts from 29-28?
even a blow out.. 30-27 is less than 3.5 points difference.. isnt it? i'm pretty sure i'm looking at this completely wrong
Can anyone educate me?

[Hannibal]

ohh wait...
29-28 3x(for 3 judges) is 3 points..
aha i get it

So for penn to win the -3.5 at +160..
he'd have to finish diaz, or take a decision with at least one of the judges scoring it 30-27 for him..?

[ReBEL`LiON]

^ correct. if BJ wins all three rounds and all three judges score it 30-27 x 3 across the board, thats winning by 9 pts.

Also, im going to add Mitrione by not finish -165.

reasoning: kongo has an amazing chin and recovery. cain was giving it to him with multiple GnP strikes and he was taking it. i can also reference pat barry's fight. Plus, if kongo wins, its still a win for us. very flexible bet

[Kaladarus]

ohh wait...
29-28 3x(for 3 judges) is 3 points..
aha i get it

So for penn to win the -3.5 at +160..
he'd have to finish diaz, or take a decision with at least one of the judges scoring it 30-27 for him..?

Unless there's a weird score out there then yes.

[Kaladarus]

I agree with what you're saying about these fights going the distance. That is why I would prefer playing fight goes the distance on all of them except Palaszewski because that line is too high. Either way though I can easily see you making a profit tonight.

[ReBEL`LiON]

HECK YEAH!!! I lost a good amount on cerrone/siver but last minute dropped 100$ on diaz +240 by decision. Fight pretty much played out how I seen it