1. 10-22-11 10:00 PM #1
    TheCalculator
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    My Biggest Mistake

    Just want to share my biggest mistake. It burned me in UFC 136, Bellator 54 and a bit tonight.

    I'm parlay one "lock" into too many fights.

    As far as selecting individual winners -- I'm over 65%. Yet I've had bad nights because I threw guys like Guillard and Nazare (and tonight Tonton) into a bunch of parlays.

    I'm really going to start making more straight up bets and more 2 men parlays instead of 3s and 4s and spread my risk better.

    I just started wagering a couple of weeks ago, so I'm still learning the ropes.
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  2. 10-22-11 10:36 PM #2
    Kaladarus
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    Straight bets are much better, but nothing wrong with a couple 3s and 4s. Just try to make sure you don't use the same fighter every where. It's good you are learning though and I'm sure with some of the cards coming up you'll be able to bounce back with some big profits.
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  3. 10-22-11 10:37 PM #3
    ghost kid
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    Always learning in this game. Chin up. The more you soak up, the better capper you will become. Cheers.
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  4. 10-22-11 10:50 PM #4
    TheCalculator
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    I appreciate all the support guys! All of your posts and discussions are very helpful.

    I remember the fight night I placed bets... I had an 11 men parlay 50 cent bet that could win $23,000+. I was pretty excited... LOL
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  5. 10-23-11 06:16 PM #5
    flickavic
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    youll have ups and downs..dont chase after the downs..ive had back 2 back loosing weekends and next week itll be the same bet sizes i normally bet except Mitrione as ive been putting a bit on him every week but i do that a couple times a year if i really like a fighter..all in all do your research,read all the opinions you can, and enjoy the fights.
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  6. 10-23-11 10:29 PM #6
    JoshB
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    I had bader over ortiz in alot of parlays..
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  7. 10-24-11 12:06 AM #7
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by flickavic View Post
    youll have ups and downs..dont chase after the downs..ive had back 2 back loosing weekends and next week itll be the same bet sizes i normally bet except Mitrione as ive been putting a bit on him every week but i do that a couple times a year if i really like a fighter..all in all do your research,read all the opinions you can, and enjoy the fights.
    I did this last weekend. Lost on Bellator 54 fights (thanks to my BIG mistake of throwing Nazare everywhere) and then chased it with the Dawson fight.
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  8. 10-24-11 05:47 AM #8
    bjpenn85
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    One of my rules is to bet significantly less, often maybe half of what i would bet on a ufc or strikeforce event than bellator or other events outside of the ufc. It seems like these type of events are more susceptible to bizarre outcomes.
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  9. 10-24-11 08:53 AM #9
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    One of my rules is to bet significantly less, often maybe half of what i would bet on a ufc or strikeforce event than bellator or other events outside of the ufc. It seems like these type of events are more susceptible to bizarre outcomes.
    That's a great rule. I definitely seems some of the fights might be fixed (bought judges, etc...).
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  10. 10-24-11 02:04 PM #10
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    yeah I've had some parlays busted by fights i had considered "locks" Sadollah/Ludwig and Schaub/Nog crushed many parlays in recent events.
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  11. 10-24-11 04:34 PM #11
    Ewoi
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
    That's a great rule. I definitely seems some of the fights might be fixed (bought judges, etc...).
    I don't think its the promotion's fault necessarily. I feel that it's more on where the venue is located since they are governed by different commissions. Arizona, Texas, Florida all seem shady and unprofessional.
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  12. 10-24-11 06:26 PM #12
    bjpenn85
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    Another mistake is to not hedge properly and do always bet round 1. to the fighter you think will lose if you have placed a big bet. Most of the KO upsets does not come in 2. or 3.round. My theory is that in the 1.round, the fighters have not measured the distance properly, established the jab, the opponents rythem etc etc. Also the energy, KO power is much greater in the very first round.
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  13. 10-24-11 06:59 PM #13
    TheCalculator
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    Hedging saved me in UFC 136 (I had a few bets with Lauzon by submission).

    When you say "do always bet round 1" -- I'm assuming you mean... If you think there's KO... bet that it's coming round 1? And I'm assuming you're discussing this in the context of hedging?
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  14. 10-30-11 09:38 AM #14
    TheCalculator
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    Did a lot better in UFC 137 with how I played my picks. However I did a NEW mistake and that was TOO MANY PROPS. 8 out of 11 of my straight up bets won. However, I just went crazy with prop picks which were hit and miss.

    As seductive as a lot of props are -- I'll be playing a lot less of them and simplifying my wagering even more.
    K.I.S.S. seems to be the way.
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