While I do agree that -300 range is often good and worthy line for some mma fights, I don't think this is one of them and I agree with much of what v1y said.
While I think galvao's horrendous striking defense will be his demise, he will be MUCH bigger than vila. I think you're underestimating his size. Btw, damacio is a natural fw and has fought at lw before - he is much, much bigger than vila and is one of the bigger 135's out there. I don't think the size will take away from vila's ko power, the guy clearly has natural power in his hands, and I don't care how big you are - not everyone has that gift. My concern with the size is that if he doesn't fare well witth the stand up that galvao will be able to muscle him around in close quarters - something that will spell disastorous for a small wrestler if he gets put on his back. Vila is a wrestling champ, but it was a long time ago since his wrestling glory days and they were at 120 pounds. I have yet to see footage of him where I've seen his impressive wrestling in mma. Plus his mma fights outside of warren were at 125. My point is that if he doesn't win the stand up fight, this match could go south for him beacuse of the size difference and who knows what this 40 year olds cardio is like going into a 3rd round... I considered mighty mo the better wrestler against cruz, but cruz simply muscled him around, and like vila, mighty should be fighting in a 125 weight class.
If you like him go for it, because if you're really confident and feel you have a good breakdown, go with your gut instinct especially if you think the line is favorable. I've been in the same position plenty of times. Its a nice line if you're really confident, but at that price I think its too risky for me and there are better -300 lines I would rather save my plays for. I think vila takes this, I don't recommend a play on galvo for the upset. Yet I think -315 on a small, old fighter who outside of warren has fought sub .500 comp is a bit risky.
Either way GL dude, I'll be rooting for vila because i like him... I thought his post fight speech was funny but sincere - you can tell the guy comes from a rought background and humble begginings. That was bs they didn't give him the mic during the post fight speech, I could tell he was pissed and really wanted to say something to the world and take that opportunity. "I'm a coming for da titlo, da titlo!"
btw, this is coming from a guy who thought that warren was going to absolutely dominate him. That foolish assumption and break down cost me every parlay I made that weekend...
So, again don't take my words to heart if you got some good insight and feel confident - I'm just giving my insight / opinion to help.