[Vitooch]

UFC 137 Plays (So Far):

George Ropp at +250 vs. Hatsu Hioki - Risk $15 to win $37.50
B.J. Penn at at -115 vs. Nick Diaz - Risk $25 to win $21.74

These are lines I don't see improving, so I went ahead and made some of these early plays.

Let me start by saying that B.J. Penn has proven himself against much higher level competition.

I see either Penn taking down Diaz with his very underrated wrestling (where he will be difficult to submit), or getting the better of Diaz standing. Diaz may have a reach advantage, but physical disadvantages haven't exactly limited Penn's game. It is powerful wrestlers that have gotten the better of Penn. And unless Diaz adopts a Frankie Edgar-esque style of quickly moving in and out of the pocket standing, I see him having trouble with B.J. Penn standing. Diaz likes to brawl with fighters on the feet while B.J Penn is much more methodical.


I understand that Hioki has proven himself to be one of the best featherweights in the world, and doesn't necessarily need a win in the UFC in order to prove that. However, Roop is no slouch, and presents a very tough matchup for Hioki in his UFC debut. Roop has proven to be a very dangerous kickboxer in his wins over the Korean Zombie and Grispi. If he can keep the fight standing for long enough, he may very well pull off a huge upset knockout.

Let me also add that we have seen hyped Asian fighters disappoint in their American MMA debuts.

More plays will be coming soon

[varkolek]

I'm probably not touching the Penn-Diaz fight. Diaz was supposed to idolise Penn apparently, and they're friends, so it makes me wonder if they'll duel it out standing instead of Penn taking him down. Also, I think Diaz's striking is underrated. I was fairly certain KJ Noons was going to beat him, and lost money there. Then everyone was saying Daley was going to beat him, and on paper he should have, but I thought something like what did happen would happen.

I'll have to go back and watch some footage of Roop and Hioki, but I've been stung betting on Roop before. I picked him against Hominick and failed spectacularly there, then I didn't pick him against Grispi even though I thought it was a value play. I'll have to see what Roop's tdd is like, but if he can take Roop down I suspect Hioki wins.

[Vitooch]

That's why I may add a Hioki by submission hedge before fight night. If Hioki does win, it will most likely be by submission, while I think Roop may be able pull of a TKO or edge a decision if he can keep the fight standing long enough. With that being said, betting on Roop is more of a riskier venture than my other picks.

As for Diaz, his standup has really impressed me too. He will have a reach advantage, solid boxing, a great chin and excellent recover. However, if Diaz chooses to brawl with Penn, he will put himself in good position to get rocked by Penn's heavy and accurate hands. Also, if Diaz gets rocked like he did in the Daley fight, he will put himself in even better position to get submitted. I just don't feel comfortable betting on a fighter to outstrike B.J. Penn because he very rarely does get outstruck. The fighters who have beaten Penn have styles that greatly contrast Diaz's.

[Vitooch]

Added miracle play of Penn by submission at +1000.

If Penn catches Diaz early he can possibly get a rocked Diaz's back and pull off a RNC.

[FlashinLeather]

I have zero faith in Roop, I don't think he is going to spoil the coming out part...

[Vitooch]

I have zero faith in Roop, I don't think he is going to spoil the coming out part...

I've seen a hyped Asian fighter underwhelm in their American MMA debut too many times to not entertain a small bet at +250.

Also, stylistically this isn't the best matchup for Hioki. Roop is dangerous on his feet with some recent highlight reel knockouts. His grappling may be just good enough to keep the fight standing long enough to really hurt Hioki.

If I had money on my bankroll I would also hedge Hioki by submission but I'm going to cross my fingers and let it ride.

[The HOFF]

I'm with you on Roop. +270 is definitely worth a small shot. Like you have pointed out, Asian fighters seem to underwhelm in their debuts.

[varkolek]

In a recent interview BJ Penn has mentioned take downs as part of his game plan. Due to that I've bet 4% on BJ.

Am undecided on Roop vs Hioki. Probably won't bet on it but if I do it will be small.

[Vitooch]

BOL to everyone on their bets...

I'm getting more and more confident that Penn will be able to pull off something special this Saturday. I'm thinking a RNC early in the first round.

Also, I'm picking Kongo, Nelson, Roop and Jorgenson to win.

[v1y]

I've seen a hyped Asian fighter underwhelm in their American MMA debut too many times to not entertain a small bet at +250.

Which one are you referring to?

Gomi's over the hill.
Omigawa had the hardest matchup possible against Mendes.
Fukuda looked great.
Yamamoto looked fine against Johnson, who is a tough fight for anyone.
Takaya admittedly has not looked great.
Mizugaki had a great US debut even in defeat.
Ishida had a great US debut by beating Wilcox, who is now seen as the next big thing at 155.
Kawajiri had a super tough matchup in Melendez.
Most thought Uno beat Fisher.

[rocky mattioli]

Which one are you referring to?

Gomi's over the hill.
Omigawa had the hardest matchup possible against Mendes.
Fukuda looked great.
Yamamoto looked fine against Johnson, who is a tough fight for anyone.
Takaya admittedly has not looked great.
Mizugaki had a great US debut even in defeat.
Ishida had a great US debut by beating Wilcox, who is now seen as the next big thing at 155.
Kawajiri had a super tough matchup in Melendez.
Most thought Uno beat Fisher.

i`m with you here...i don`t think roop`s as good as some are making him out to be....he has no quality wins,imo(sans grispi,who was beaten just as badly vs poirer...seems to have fallen off the edge of the world)......

hioki`s been in with vicious strikers...i watched hioki take some nasty shots from sandro and not go anywhere...

roop has 3 stoppages due to strikes...hioki`s never been stopped....so,imo,he needs to win via decision....

i suspect this goes to the ground at some point...and that roop and his long limbs get subbed for the 5th time in his career...maybe that crazy chicke wing thing he pulled against sandro...lol..guy has fantastic transitions...

of course,i had bonnar over marc coleman...so don`t take it too seriously......

[proposition joe]

Which one are you referring to?

Gomi's over the hill.
Omigawa had the hardest matchup possible against Mendes.
Fukuda looked great.
Yamamoto looked fine against Johnson, who is a tough fight for anyone.
Takaya admittedly has not looked great.
Mizugaki had a great US debut even in defeat.
Ishida had a great US debut by beating Wilcox, who is now seen as the next big thing at 155.
Kawajiri had a super tough matchup in Melendez.
Most thought Uno beat Fisher.

Anyone that sees Wilcox as the next big thing out of all of the promising 155ers is CRAZY.

Sorry to be that guy, I know that wasn't the point behind your post.

[Vitooch]

Sure, Hioki certainly has a good chance of subbing Roop.

However, I'm willing to lay a small wager on a +250 dog against a fighter who we haven't seen in the octagon yet.

I can definitely see Hioki, like the fighters listed above, having serious trouble with the top tier fighters of the UFC, considering how one-dimensional he is, settling into the mid tier of the division, and participating in competitive fights against mid-tier fighters such as Roop .

Let's look at fighter like Omigawa. He went from facing a top tier featherweight in Mendes and losing pretty handily, to dropping down to the middle tier of the division and losing a close decision to Elkins.

I can see this fight going down the same way Omigawa/Elkins went down. You take a relatively hyped Asian fighter against a solid, mid-tier fighter UFC fighter, and it makes for a pretty close fight.

With that being said, why not take a +250 dog in a fight that I think will be pretty competitive based on my reasoning.

[proposition joe]

Sure, Hioki certainly has a good chance of subbing Roop.

However, I'm willing to lay a small wager on a +250 dog against a fighter who we haven't seen in the octagon yet.

I can definitely see Hioki, like the fighters listed above, having serious trouble with the top tier fighters of the UFC, considering how one-dimensional he is, settling into the mid tier of the division, and participating in competitive fights against mid-tier fighters such as Roop .

Let's look at fighter like Omigawa. He went from facing a top tier featherweight in Mendes and losing pretty handily, to dropping down to the middle tier of the division and losing a close decision to Elkins.

I can see this fight going down the same way Omigawa/Elkins went down. You take a relatively hyped Asian fighter against a solid, mid-tier fighter UFC fighter, and it makes for a pretty close fight.

With that being said, why not take a +250 dog in a fight that I think will be pretty competitive based on my reasoning.

Great post. The value is on Roop here. I don't think anyone is saying that he should be favored to win, just that the probabilities are tighter than the odds would lead people to believe.

[Vitooch]

Great post. The value is on Roop here. I don't think anyone is saying that he should be favored to win, just that the probabilities are tighter than the odds would lead people to believe.

I'd say Hioki has about a 55-60% chance of winning.

Too many questions regarding Hioki's ability to take Roop down, and his ability to take Roop's punches and often times devastating legs exist for him to be favorited this high.

[illmatick]

You should be a lot heavier on Roop if you think he wins 45% of the time. Also think calling him one dimensional is bit of a stretch; his striking isn't flashy but his jab and straight right proved to be more than formidable against sandro.

nice avatar though.

[v1y]

Anyone that sees Wilcox as the next big thing out of all of the promising 155ers is CRAZY.

Sorry to be that guy, I know that wasn't the point behind your post.

We shall find out! There's not too many fighters i'd be comfortable betting on against wilcox at even odds.

[Vitooch]

You should be a lot heavier on Roop if you think he wins 45% of the time. Also think calling him one dimensional is bit of a stretch; his striking isn't flashy but his jab and straight right proved to be more than formidable against sandro.

nice avatar though.

Let me correct myself, he is one-dimensional with respect to his ranking. His striking and wrestling is decent, but not nearly on the level of his BJJ. Also, compared to fighters of similar rank, he is significantly less well-rounded.

Also, I would lay more money on Roop and some other fighters, but do not currently have the funds to do so. Took a big hit at the last monday night football game.

[Vitooch]

I thought Roop won rounds 1 and 3.

Not a huge deal tho, it was a small wager but I could have def used that money.

[Vitooch]

Would have never guessed Diaz would dominate BJ Penn like that.

Diaz has me eating my words pretty hard right now.

UFC 137 Record - 0-2 (-$55)

Hopefully the Giants cover tomorrow against the Dolphins. If not, I will be done with sports betting for a while.

[Vitooch]

Betting small this card

Jason Young +220 - Risk 15 to win 33
Chris Leben by TKO/KO +375 - Risk 10 to win 37.50

May hedge Leben bet with Munoz...a few more plays to come

[Vitooch]

Small play on Pickett at +115

[TheCalculator]

Small play on Pickett at +115

I made some plays on Pickett also. I think he takes this. Barao has never fought anyone at this level.

[Vitooch]

I made some plays on Pickett also. I think he takes this. Barao has never fought anyone at this level.

After watching his fight with Jorgensen I'm having a tough time seeing Barao control Pickett from top position.

Pickett has this special combination of well-rounded skills and toughness that's almost impossible to find in MMA.

I'm also adding Munoz wins by decision at +390

[Vitooch]

I swear this thread has been giving me horrible luck...

UFC 138 Record - 0-3 (-$50)

[The HOFF]

Ups an downs is the way it goes. Just keep at it.

[Vitooch]

Ups an downs is the way it goes. Just keep at it.

Thanks Hoff. I did really well in my first few events but have fallen off the map since.

I'll continue working at this.

[Vitooch]

Added Bendo SU + Velasquez/Dos Santos won't go distance - Risk 25 to win 19

[Vitooch]

Added Bendo wins by submission at +350 - Risk 15 to win 52.50

[Vitooch]

Added more to Bendo SU + JDS/Cain won't go distance - Risking total of 38 to win 30
Added more to Bendo by submission - Risking total of 65 to win 242 (Crossing my fingers it lands)

Have most of my money locked up in football plays, but would have prob added Garza SU, and maybe a few parlays with Johnson, Pierce, and Bendo included

BOL to everyone

[Vitooch]

Bendo SU + JDS/Cain won't go distance - Risking total of 38 to win 30 Win
Bendo by submission - Risking total of 65 to win 242 Loss

UFC on Fox - 1-1 (-$35)

[Condit]

not to be a dick, but ur actually down 35

[Vaughany]

ha yeah I think he's including the stake as profit (although actually that doesn't add up neither!). Bad luck bro

[Vitooch]

I am including the stake...the way I look at it I lost 65 dollars from the Bendo prop I won back that money in the parlay.

[Vaughany]

Wouldnt that be +$3 then? It doesn't really work like that as the $38 was your stake for tht bet (not profit). So for both your plays you had a total stake of $38+$65 = $103 and a total return of $38+$30 = $68. So $103 - $68 = $35... i.e you're $35 less than what you started with