[Chong Wizard]

Why is everybody in here on Forrest Griffin?

I know he beat Shogun back in 2007 but that was Shoguns first fight in the UFC after Pride. If I remember correctly at the time Shogun didn't look to be in the best shape. I also seem to remember some fighters having a hard time transitioning from Pride to UFC. Anyways since then Shogun only lost a crooked decision to Machida and of course he got destroyed by Jon Jones... but who is ******* with Jon Jones right now??? Nobody!!!

I have a lot of respect for Forrest Griffin but after he got embarrassed by Anderson Silva he hasn't been the same fighter. Since then he had too unimpressive decision wins over washed up competition in Rich Franklin and Tito Ortiz. I see Shogun knocking him out. Setting up a rubber match down the road. Which fits perfectly into my Trilogy Theory. Which is when two popular fighters have a rematch the guy who lost the first fight usually wins the second one... thus setting up the "Trilogy".

I'm sure you guys have your reasons for betting on Forrest.

Is there something I don't know? Did Forrest have a great training camp? Is he training with some one new?

Is something wrong with Shogun? Injuries or something???

Only way I would touch Forrest is by decision... but even then I just don't see it.

Please enlighten me.

[Chairib]

lol

[kmdubya]

I'm still trying to figure out that whole "trilogy" math.

[Chong Wizard]

Have you never heard of a Rubber match? Do you ever wonder why they happen all the time? Do you not realize how easy it is to promote a rubber match? Especially when its two popular fighters with fan bases such as Forrest Griffin and Shogun. Don't make me go back thru the history of the UFC and to site endless examples. There isn't much "math" to figure out. It's just a theory anyways... it not fool proof. But does happen quite often. All I'm saying is when Shogun wins this fight a year or two down the road they will set up the inevitable rubber match making it a Trilogy.

[urge2kill]

So you are saying that the UFC is going to rig it for Shogun?

[Chong Wizard]

I don't think they need to rig it for Shogun to win the fight... they've already given him home court advantage so to speak with the event being in Brazil. Crowd will be behind him and obviously he will want to win in front of the home crowd. Sure they could very easily pay Griffin to lose or pay the judges to side with Shogun. If Shogun does win I could see them setting up the Machida vs. Shogun "Trilogy"... I'm not saying you have to believe me. I'm just putting it out there... just another angle on top of the fact that I think Shogun wins regardless of my theory. I like to think outside the box instead of just breaking down the fighters skills. I like to think about whats best for the UFC as far as story lines go and whats more profitable for them in the future.

LOL and hate all you want I'm just merely putting out a theory.

The reason I started this thread was so that someone would respond with why they are betting on Forrest and why they think Forrest wins.

I don't care if you don't like my theory.

[JuicedUp]

Cool theory bro.

[shady610]

His 3 wins in ufc were against Lyoto chuck and coleman. 2 of them were already past their prime and he looked great against lyoto.

He has not shown any kind of consistent performances since he showed up to the ufc. I dont think he will be ready for the size and fearless style of forrest.

[iQon]

Dude, if Shogun walks through Forrest, or wins a boring decision... There will be no third fight.

[Nick The Greek]

There were rumors of a Shogun knee injury suffered recently. His camp shot them down, but that's to be expected.

I'm waiting til the weigh-ins before betting on this one. If Shogun looks soft, I'm going with Forrest.

[shady610]

There were rumors of a Shogun knee injury suffered recently. His camp shot them down, but that's to be expected.

I'm waiting til the weigh-ins before betting on this one. If Shogun looks soft, I'm going with Forrest.

It seems that shogun gets the Penn treatment by fans now

[Vaughany]

I don't think "everybody" on here is on Forrest, I think most like Shogun from what I've read. But the reason for anybody liking Griffin has to be value based. You can get him at +200 suggesting he has a 33.33% chance of winning - I guess most would see it closer to 40 to 50% range.

[GunShard]

Never follow trends and theories.

With MMA fights, it's all about how they trained before this fight.

[sirchadwick1]

I feel like Shogun has something to prove here and will show up in shape and actually rip Forrest a new one. Not saying he'll finish, but I think he will comfortably win on the scorecards this time around. At first glance Forrest around +200 looks good... but I still question where his head is at. Bones destroyed Shogun, but he'd do the same to Forrest and 95% of the division.

Probably should have just played Rua straight up, but I took him by DEC at +317.

[GunShard]

I watched Countdown to UFC Rio on TV.

Which showed how Griffin knows how Shogun fights. Griffin said Shogun blitz his opponents and never to move back, that's how Shogun defeated Liddell and Machida the second time. They moved back and got blitzed. Griffin said that he will not move back and keep moving forward to prevent getting knocked out.

[BIGDAY]

I don't think "everybody" on here is on Forrest, I think most like Shogun from what I've read. But the reason for anybody liking Griffin has to be value based. You can get him at +200 suggesting he has a 33.33% chance of winning - I guess most would see it closer to 40 to 50% range.

Plus, If the fight goes the distance Griffin has a way to impress the judges as well. He is relentless and somehow stays fairly out of trouble. I believe he will be able to take Shogun down if he wants to. However, I do think he tests the striking game for a while. Just how I see it.

And I hate laying over -200 juice in MMA

[v1y]

Cool theory bro.

This is all that needs to be said.

Forrest is bigger and has the better jiujitsu here. It's a very winnable fight for him.

[rocky mattioli]

it is odd that many,many people were picking rua over jones.....probably some of the same folks that are saying he`s through now.....amazing how everyone overeacts based on a guy`s last fight....

there are some injury questions with rua(knees in particular)......and that`s a real issue..... but griffin sounds less than inspiring in his recent interviews....and imo,he was never as good as his hype.....he`s big at the weight...and he`s a grinder.....his ability to take punishment and still gut out wins was his strength...

but,imo,he`s a pedestrian talent....and i think his ability to take enormous amounts of punishment might be waning....


imo,with homecourt advantage here,i think it all depends on what rua has left...he`s the more talented guy.....hard to tell off the jones fight....seems we`re heading toward a time in which you just have to give fighters a mulligan for getting beaten to a pulp by jones....

i think that if this goes the distance and rua is close,he`ll get the nod in brazil.....that has to be factored into any analysis...

btw...am i the only one cocerned that theres talk about pearson trying to take barboza to the mat to grind out a decision?.....that would really be a turd in my punchbowl...

[v1y]

am i the only one cocerned that theres talk about pearson trying to take barboza to the mat to grind out a decision?.....that would really be a turd in my punchbowl...

if i was pearson that's what i'd be training to do. so yes, i'm worried.

[Vaughany]

it is odd that many,many people were picking rua over jones.....probably some of the same folks that are saying he`s through now.....amazing how everyone overeacts based on a guy`s last fight....

there are some injury questions with rua(knees in particular)......and that`s a real issue..... but griffin sounds less than inspiring in his recent interviews....and imo,he was never as good as his hype.....he`s big at the weight...and he`s a grinder.....his ability to take punishment and still gut out wins was his strength...

but,imo,he`s a pedestrian talent....and i think his ability to take enormous amounts of punishment might be waning....


imo,with homecourt advantage here,i think it all depends on what rua has left...he`s the more talented guy.....hard to tell off the jones fight....seems we`re heading toward a time in which you just have to give fighters a mulligan for getting beaten to a pulp by jones....

i think that if this goes the distance and rua is close,he`ll get the nod in brazil.....that has to be factored into any analysis...

btw...am i the only one cocerned that theres talk about pearson trying to take barboza to the mat to grind out a decision?.....that would really be a turd in my punchbowl...

if i was pearson that's what i'd be training to do. so yes, i'm worried.

There's always a chance Pearson grinds out a decision, tis why I've played Pearson by decision at +467 hedged with Barboza at -250 as a slight back-up to my other Barboza plays. However, I dont recall Pearson ever using such a strategy before, yes he has tried to steal rounds by taking opponents down as he did against Fisher but he's never used a relentless strategy of constantly trying to take his opponent down. Im not convinced he'd be able to even if he tried against Barboza, Barboza has great balance and dude is a physical specimen. When Pearson trained for a few days with Edgar he got absolutely schooled, he said it himself on his blog.

[Chong Wizard]

Wow thanks for all the in-depth feedback guys. I really appreciate it. I usually wait until I watch the weigh ins before I place my bets unless I'm trying to hammer a soft line early. I understand the value of +200 in a 50/50 fight. I know Griffin has a great chin as he has proved he can take a beating and keep coming at you. I see his best chance at winning would be to lay n pray... since he most likely has the wrestling advantage and with his size it could really wear out Shogun if he lays on him for 3 rounds.

I'm probably just gonna be doing 2 and 3 fight parlays... with different combinations... Barboza, Paulo Thiago, Shogun, Silva, Schaub, Palhares.

I know Vaughany is big on Schaub by KO/TKO and I'll probably be on that play too.

If I do go with Shogun in my parlays will most likey hedge with Griffin by decision.

If I leave Shogun out of the parlays I might take a shot at Shogun via KO/TKO

I use bookmaker and they haven't release lines on their prop bets yet.

I watched Countdown to UFC Rio on TV.

Which showed how Griffin knows how Shogun fights. Griffin said Shogun blitz his opponents and never to move back, that's how Shogun defeated Liddell and Machida the second time. They moved back and got blitzed. Griffin said that he will not move back and keep moving forward to prevent getting knocked out.

I haven't watched the new countdown yet. I'll check it out but for the most part I usually don't trust what they try to hype you on in those things. I usually fade whoever they try to sell us on in those things. Also we saw what happened when Forrest tried to move forward against Anderson Silva.... I know Shogun is not Anderson Silva... but Shogun still has knock out power.

[Vaughany]

I watched Countdown to UFC Rio on TV.

Which showed how Griffin knows how Shogun fights. Griffin said Shogun blitz his opponents and never to move back, that's how Shogun defeated Liddell and Machida the second time. They moved back and got blitzed. Griffin said that he will not move back and keep moving forward to prevent getting knocked out.

I've learnt to take what is said on countdown shows with a grain of salt. They are advised to hype the fight and of course the trainers and yes-men are going to say how great their fighter looks and they've had their best ever camp etc... Michael Bisping's manager used to say in every single one that he was 100% confident that Bisping was going to knock his opponent out!

[jin2daj]

i LOVE the trilogy theory.

[Beelzebubzy]

Round 1 versus Franklin is my reasoning

I think Forrest wins a grappling matchup with shogun

[omalley21]

Im a big Forrest fan but I don't think he's gonna win this one. Shoguns training with an american conditioning coach. He usually does well off a loss. I'll pass on this fight.

[rocky mattioli]

There's always a chance Pearson grinds out a decision, tis why I've played Pearson by decision at +467 hedged with Barboza at -250 as a slight back-up to my other Barboza plays. However, I dont recall Pearson ever using such a strategy before, yes he has tried to steal rounds by taking opponents down as he did against Fisher but he's never used a relentless strategy of constantly trying to take his opponent down. Im not convinced he'd be able to even if he tried against Barboza, Barboza has great balance and dude is a physical specimen. When Pearson trained for a few days with Edgar he got absolutely schooled, he said it himself on his blog.

i hope you`re right brother.......i honestly think that if pearson can figure out how to deal with those kicks,he has the potential to be a tough out....but when you`re considerably shorter,that`s a tough assignment.......(but those kicks.......whoa)......

i `m holding to my rua/barboza par.....sometimes my reticence to lay odds really bites me on the ass......probably should just be laying the odds on barboza and hedging with a pearson decision also........

liking undercard faves paulo thiago/alcantara and erick silva....

more parlays....

[GunShard]

Is Shogun's training enough to defeat Griffin?

[GunShard]

I've learnt to take what is said on countdown shows with a grain of salt. They are advised to hype the fight and of course the trainers and yes-men are going to say how great their fighter looks and they've had their best ever camp etc... Michael Bisping's manager used to say in every single one that he was 100% confident that Bisping was going to knock his opponent out!

True. I don't blindly listen to everything they say on that show. I cherry pick the information, which could be useful for betting on a fight.

Also on Countdown to UFC Rio, they also talked about how after Okami lost to Sonnen, Okami wanted to go train with Sonnen. Sonnen thought it was an empty offer then a few days later Okami came to Oregon to train with Sonnen. Training with Sonnen helped Okami defeat Munoz. I think Sonnen improved Okami's take down defenses and the ability to take down opponents. Okami looks like a different fighter than the last time he fought Silva. But I still believe that Silva will win this rematch.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I don't think "everybody" on here is on Forrest, I think most like Shogun from what I've read. But the reason for anybody liking Griffin has to be value based. You can get him at +200 suggesting he has a 33.33% chance of winning - I guess most would see it closer to 40 to 50% range.

exactly... I pick shogun to win, but with regard to value in an odds sense, I like forrest. At the current odds the pick is forest as that is where the value is at. But for a flat out prediction I don't think everyone is on forrest, I think most are on shogun and rightly so.

Interesting theory as well. I think its more coincidence that the 'trilogy' scenario often plays out, but I have noticed a trend similar to your description. GL and WAR SHOGUN!

[GoldRush7]

If shogun shows up in shape and motivated there is no way forrest will win

[NunyaBidness]

If shogun shows up in shape and motivated there is no way forrest will win

Then tell us P(1) and P(2) so we can calculate edge please.

[rocky mattioli]

Is Shogun's training enough to defeat Griffin?

thanks for posting the vid...makes me feel better about rua`s knee issues....i`ve had a partially torn quad tendon,bucket handle meniscus tear and a some ligament fraying......he looked very mobile and stable with a good deal of resistance in those movements...i noticed no braces....

[DDT]

Shogun takes this fight easily.....

[v1y]

exactly... I pick shogun to win, but with regard to value in an odds sense, I like forrest. At the current odds the pick is forest as that is where the value is at. But for a flat out prediction I don't think everyone is on forrest, I think most are on shogun and rightly so.

Interesting theory as well. I think its more coincidence that the 'trilogy' scenario often plays out, but I have noticed a trend similar to your description. GL and WAR SHOGUN!

do you *really* think forrest/tito 2 and cruz/faber 2 were in any way suspicious though? (recent rematches with the initial loser winning)

[Chong Wizard]

Cruz vs Faber is a perfect example of my trilogy theory. Of course there was nothing suspicious about that fight but it definitely sets the stage for the ultimate rubber match down the road a year or two from now.

My trilogy theory isn't really about crooked or fixed fights. I'm sure there has been countless fights in MMA and Boxing that were fixed that nobody knew about or that didn't look suspicious. More often then not in the first match of a trilogy one of the fighters is either in better shape or a better point in his career and by the time the 2nd fight happens the tables have turned. So it doesn't really have to be fixed. Sometimes the timing of the rematch or the location of the rematch can be a factor.

Another angle I like to think about is what's the most convenient scenarios from a marketing perspective for the UFC. What are they trying to accomplish by bringing the UFC to Brazil? Make the sport more popular in Brazil? Build their brand down there? Possibly??? I'm not saying every single Brazilian will win their fights. But how often does the guy fighting in his hometown or home country win? Quite often as far as I can tell... but I guess before anyone will believe my theories or angles I'll have to go thru and find out the exact numbers.

What are likely matches that will happen depending on who will win and what makes more sense?

If Shogun wins I wouldn't be surprised if they set up the Shogun vs. Machida trilogy.

If Forrest loses I wouldn't be surprised if the set up the Griffin vs. Ortiz trilogy.