[1nce]

Me thinks Okami has a far better chance of getting the W than odds are suggesting. After Okami's impressive win over Marquardt and still having Sonnen's performance vs. Silva fresh in mind, i remember thinking Okami would be a tricky matchup for Silva. Okami's solid chin should provide cover to close the distance and score some takedowns. He might not have as good top-control and GnP as Sonnen but on the contrary he isn't as likely to be caught by a submission. I can see this fight going the distance looking much like like Silva vs. Sonnen and a fairer price on Okami should be in the range of +200 to 250 IMO.

Thoughts??

[kmdubya]

Silva's weakness is strong wrestlers. Okami is a weaker wrestler than Sonnen. Plus this fight is happening in Silva's backyard. I do not believe he loses this fight.

And I don't really call his win over Marquardt "impressive". He has a good win streak, but hasn't impressed anyone alon the way, and that's why he's had to wait so long for a title shot.

[Vaughany]

Just like fight to go the distance

[sirchadwick1]

Anderson inside the distance is the play here at -146. He's still pissed about the last time they fought - getting the DQ and has a chip on his shoulder. Silva is not the guy you want to fight when he has something to prove. Okami may have improved his wrestling, but he won't be able to hold Anderson down like Sonnen. Silva will win this by sub or TKO. I don't care how durable Okami has always been... he's stepping above his league again. And being in Brazil will just give the extra edge to the champ. Belfort and Leben also have great chins and Anderson wrecked them.

[caveira]

I have to agree with you 1nce, Anderson is the favorite without a doubt, but Okami has wrestling to drop and keep him on the floor. Fighting at home can be a disadvantage if the Okami's game plan take effect in the first two rounds. The expectation is proportional to the frustration if the things don't go as the fans expect ...

[MMAbetMASTA]

Silva's weakness is strong wrestlers. Okami is a weaker wrestler than Sonnen. Plus this fight is happening in Silva's backyard. I do not believe he loses this fight.

And I don't really call his win over Marquardt "impressive". He has a good win streak, but hasn't impressed anyone alon the way, and that's why he's had to wait so long for a title shot.

Okami has much weaker tds than chael but okami's top control is vastly superior to chael's top control imo and this will be huge if he gets anderson down with frequency. I also think when clinched okami has better grappling in the clinch than chael. His win against nate wasn't impressive in the way he fought per se (yes most his fights are quite boring), but wins over nate and munoz as your last two fights are impressive and legit no matter how you look at it.

Believe it or not, the first fight tells a lot imo.

Yes it was long ago and was short, and an upkick in that position should be legal (hence its a legit win for anderson in my eyes, and this is coming from a guy who hates anderson lol). But it took okami only 3 td attempts to get him silva down I believe. Okami got tagged trying to do so, but he still got him down. Once in top control he quickly improved position and mounted, landed a couple weak shots, and got kicked in the face from another spider 'freak technique'. Okami looked much smaller than silva too and since then has clearly put on WAY more mass - the guy is one big japp at MW now. I realize anderson has grown too, but I think the mass gain is more evident with okami.

Has anderson improved since the first fight? Obviously, he's arguably the best fighter in the world p4p. Has his tdd improved......? That's a good question now, isn't it?

Has Okami improved since the first fight - ABSOLUTELY.

The most significant change with Okami is his striking. Munoz and nate are not even close to anderson on the feet, but they are still legit threats with their striking and okami won those fights with excellent defensive wrestling, offensive clinch work, and better striking. He is certainly compotent on the feet. He'd be an idiot to stand with anderson as a gameplan, but his improved technique will greatly enhance his ability to set up tds or trips. His tds haven't necessarily improved, but if he took anderson down within a few attempts in the first fight - when he was much smaller and had zero stand up - I think he can do so in this one. Coupled with some of the best top control and sub defense in the game, and a pretty decent chin, he has a great chance to replicate chael's fight and not blow it at the end. I do question, though, the frequency with which okami can get anderson to the ground. He struggled the few tds he put on nate, but I think nate has much bettter tdd than anderson. I also think lesser wrasslers and grapplers have got anderson down in the past. The more time Okami stands the more he loses or has the KO coming at him. If he can be relentless with tds from bell to bell and not let anderson get comfortable from a distance, I like him a lot in this because once he gets anderson down in the round, I don't see the spider getting back up until the end of the round rings.

Furthermore, Okami has waited a long, long time for the title shot. He knows this is his one and only chance to get it, probably for the rest of his career - he's famished and hungry. It might be boring and ugly, but a win certainly a possiblity. And at +350 or higher I am all over that

Not going nuts on an okami play, I think anderson is the pick, obviously. He's in his home town and that will certainly fuel his fire - I expect to see a very game Anderson who is looking to impress and finish.

However the value with regard to the style match up and the current odds - the pick is all on okami. He has a very legit chance to win and I think people are overlooking it.

[FindTheLock]

in my humble opinion betting against a guy who hasn't lost in over 5 years of fighting in the UFC is a bad play no matter what you think your angle is. Sometimes the simplest logic makes you look like a genius, and I feel like this is one of those cases. If you like Okami because of odds or some other angle, then the most you should bet is a bag of popcorn with the friends you're watching the fight with. This is not a good upset spot for silva being in Brazil. The motivation factor alone for Silva to win in front of his countrymen is enough to keep me from betting on Okami, but factor in all of Silva's skill and it is just not a smart play to mess around with.

[kmdubya]

in my humble opinion betting against a guy who hasn't lost in over 5 years of fighting in the UFC is a bad play no matter what you think your angle is. Sometimes the simplest logic makes you look like a genius, and I feel like this is one of those cases. If you like Okami because of odds or some other angle, then the most you should bet is a bag of popcorn with the friends you're watching the fight with. This is not a good upset spot for silva being in Brazil. The motivation factor alone for Silva to win in front of his countrymen is enough to keep me from betting on Okami, but factor in all of Silva's skill and it is just not a smart play to mess around with.

Agreed. Silva is due for an upset, but he has faced much better competition as compared to Okami so even at +350, I don't think there's value on Okami.

[Wrecked]

I'd say Silva inside the distance is the play, and there is room to hedge with Okami straight up with these odds.

[Pabinator]

I cant see this fight going the distance either

[Chairib]

I'd say Silva inside the distance is the play, and there is room to hedge with Okami straight up with these odds.

Lytle sucks and anyone skeptical about Hardy loosing needs to come back to the real world.

[Wrecked]

Lytle sucks and anyone skeptical about Hardy loosing needs to come back to the real world.

Sorry I was wrong?
Not my fault Hardy's dumbass tried to do another takedown after already almost getting caught in a choke.
Hardy almost finished him, it was close, I thought Lytle was going to get messed up, sorry bro.

[hawaii808]

Silva punishes okami easily

[lasker]

As usual, I agree with 1nce 100% on this one. You're a sharp capper 1nce.