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Jose aldo vs Kenny Florian
Hi new to the forum but been lurking for a while.
Lets talk aldo vs florian, i know this is still a while away, but i think there's a lot of value on aldo currently. The lines are currently -245 on Aldo and was -265 earlier when i was about to make a big play on him. Obviously I'm a big Aldo fan (hence the username) therefore prone to a little bias, so looking for some other peoples input, especially since it seems people are playing florian's line.
I usually don't play large on favorites straight up, but i think there is quite a bit of value here. The only ways i see Florian winning this is via Cut Doctor stoppage and a slim chance via rear naked choke. I don't think Florian will get the opportunity to throw these elbows either in the clinch or on the ground. Aldo is elusive and likes to stay on the outside, and i think despite a 4 inch reach advantage he can successfully and effectively outstrike Florian and stay out of the clinch.
I think there is a chance Florian can sink in a rear naked choke, as he has done so many time, and Aldo single lost was to a rear naked choke early in his career, how ever for him to find himselve in that situation, i think he will either need to be rocked or taken down and get his back taken during a scramble. I don't see Florian having much of a chance to rock Aldo (tho anything can happen), and i think Florian will have very little success with the takedown, being few and far between, as Florian's wrestling was always been in question. Although i actually think Florian wrestling is underated, Aldo has shown good enough TTD throughout his career. Couple that with Aldo fantastic ability to catch opponents coming in with knees and uppercuts could have Florian thinking twice before shooting in for a double.
If Florian does get the take down i think he will primarily look to throw elbows, cut Aldo up and force a stopage especially in a longer 5 round fight. In the Hominick fight, Aldo seen to have been some what exposed on the ground in the fifth, but i think this was more to do with him being too gas to attempt a swept or get back to his feet. However i think he show good defense composure and was never really hurt or in trouble of getting finished. I think if he was less tired he has good enough bbj to threaten a sub, swept and get back to his feet.
Standing i favor Aldo to dominate despite height and reach disadvantage, he is superior technical striker to Florian, and showed amazing head movement in the Hominick match and really didn't take much damage in the first four rounds except some jabs and body shot (despite what Joe rogan was saying). I don't think he will be able to just pick of the legs of Florian as easily like his previous opponent since he is fighter a south paw, but florian last fight he was rocked twice by Nunes. Aldo will hit harder than Nunes and imo more killer instincts.
By far Aldo biggest advantage in this fight will be his speed, Speed kills and i think Aldo is much faster and more athletic than Florian.
It is unknown weather Aldo will be able to perform 5 rounds, he obvious started to slow down midway through the Hominick fight and gas hard in the last round, weather this was attributed to a hard cut, the long layoff or illness who knows, but he also noticeably slowed down during the 5th round in the Faber fight. Florian has gone full pace 5 rounds with Sherk and 4 with Penn and despite my initial thinking that the cut to 145 will hurt him in the Nunes fight he was still very fresh in the third round. Florian may steal some late rounds if it goes there, although i'm leaning towards an Aldo TKO in the second.
What are everyone else think?
I thinking of putting a big 30-40 unit play straight up on Aldo especially at the current line of -245 instead of waiting for the TKO prop. I think the line will only get worse, although i was about to play it at -265 and didn't think it'll get any better. Whats everyone else thought on the line movements?
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Originally Posted by Vaughany
