[Wrecked]

Okay it's getting closer to 133 and I haven't placed a bet on Sexyama yet.

I love him in this fight. Let's take a look at his previous fights in the UFC in my perspective and opinion.

In the UFC it is obvious that Sexyama has been mostly focused on stand-up. I believe his motives and intentions are/were to be as exciting as he was in Japan and to be popular here as well as Japan. Now these motives weren't to smart imo. He has yet to utilize his Judo at all in the UFC, and he still has to utilize all aspects of his game plan to pull out a win.

Akiyama's win over Belcher was mostly stand up. Belcher had a significant reach advantage against Akiyama, and Akiyama's stand up did not look to good. Akiyama clearly has trouble fighting taller opponents. Akiyama still got the win over Belcher (barely) in this split decision despite the reach advantage.

Akiyama's loss over Chris Leban was also a fight that was mostly stand up. What we learned from this fight was the durability of Akiyama's chin. He can take some brutal punishment and go 3 rounds with the crippler, toe to toe the entire time. If you re-watch this fight, it is obvious Akiyama is headed towards a clear unanimous decision victory if it wasn't for him getting cocky (cocky and tired as hell) in Leban's guard. Akiyama showed a tremendous improvement in his stand-up in this fight, and I believe it's due to the reach advantage not being there.

Akiyama's loss to Bisping was once again a stand up fight. Bisping used his technical boxing and picked Akiyama apart. Bisping had a significant reach advantage against Akiyama (as did Belcher) and had a smart game-plan and simply picked him apart and used his reach advantage to the fullest.



Now, my prediction of what we will see from Akiyama in UFC 133. I believe Akiyama can stand toe to toe with Belfort. I don't believe in Belfort's hype what-so-ever. Belfort has no reach advantage, no size advantage, and that's what Akiyama likes best in an opponent (which is why he should drop a weight class). Also, Akiyama knows his mistakes, and has reportedly gone to Japan to work on his Judo for this fight. Akiyama will utilize all his weapons for this fight, because he needs to win to stay in the UFC, he knows he needs this, and he's hungry for this fight. Belfort is fighting for a pay-check, he's washed up, and I believe we'll all learn that in UFC 133.

My prediction would be Akiyama inside the distance, but if Belfort's chin holds up, it'll go all three rounds. I believe we'll see a lot more ground game from Akiyama, and I see him out classing Belfort in all areas.

[bogbat]

Great value play, simply put Akiyama is durable and won't give up, whereas Belfort has been known to crumble in the later rounds if things aren't going his way.

[Straight Cash]

I think he's pretty overrated to be honest.

[sirchadwick1]

I don't see any value in Sexyama at all at the current price. I may make a play on him if he were at +400, but I'm siding with Belfort in this one. Vitor is quick, powerful, a good sized MW, and was on a decent run before getting KO'd by Anderson. And that was the only time in his entire career he's been KO'd. Ask yourself... do you see Sexy subbing or TKO'ing him? I think Akiyama's only shot here is to win by decision and that seems very unlikely - but if you're going to take him, go for Sexyama by DEC at +520 (it was something like that last time I checked). Until he cuts to WW I don't think he's going to put together much in the UFC... And even though you don't really see Sexyama overwhelmed, I think Belfort TKO's him in the 1st round. I'm not really one to use MMAth, but Belfort took out Franklin with ease and I think Franklin would win against Akiyama even though he's past his prime.

[capone1899]

I think he's pretty overrated to be honest.

Same here he hasnt looked good at all in the UFC.

[koscheckbaby]

Why would people like Sexyama to beat Belfort when he got soundly picked apart by the Mediocre Count? Anyone Bisping soundly beats is trash, don't forget that. Belfort may have certain issues, but I can't see him not completely outboxing the shit out of Sexyama.

[TrajaD]

Belfort will KO Sexyama lol what kind of name is that

[Vaughany]

Belfort will KO Sexyama lol what kind of name is that

Well u realise its not his actual name!

[kmdubya]

Why would people like Sexyama to beat Belfort when he got soundly picked apart by the Mediocre Count? Anyone Bisping soundly beats is trash, don't forget that. Belfort may have certain issues, but I can't see him not completely outboxing the shit out of Sexyama.

Agreed. He also couldn't outstrike an obvious slow striker in Leben.

I'm not sure where this thought of "Akiyama's Ground Game" came from, but the guy is a judo specialist. Never been to the ground, and will not win there (as evidence by getting caught in a submission from Leben).

[kmdubya]

Well u realise its not his actual name!

Buhhhhhh.....WHAAAAAAAT?!?!?!

So when I call Hazlet "** Lovin", that was all a farse?

[Vaughany]

Apparently so...I fell for the same trap!

[omalley21]

Akiyama used his judo against Leben. He needs to use it against Vitor too. I think Vitor will pick him apart on the feet if it stays there. But Akiyama is really tough to finish. I think I'm just gonna watch this one. Unless there's a good prop. Vitor by decision will probably have value.

[sirchadwick1]

Akiyama used his judo against Leben. He needs to use it against Vitor too. I think Vitor will pick him apart on the feet if it stays there. But Akiyama is really tough to finish. I think I'm just gonna watch this one. Unless there's a good prop. Vitor by decision will probably have value.

It's at +215, but I keep having visions of a beatdown.... so I feel comfy enough laying the -280 on Belfort just to win the fight.

[kmdubya]

It's at +215, but I keep having visions of a beatdown.... so I feel comfy enough laying the -280 on Belfort just to win the fight.

I think I'm laying off this fight regardless.

Akiyama is a human punching bag but has a steel jaw. Vitor hasn't seen the 3 minute mark of the 1st round in a LONG time. Too many question marks on both fighters.

[Wrecked]

I don't see any value in Sexyama at all at the current price. I may make a play on him if he were at +400, but I'm siding with Belfort in this one. Vitor is quick, powerful, a good sized MW, and was on a decent run before getting KO'd by Anderson. And that was the only time in his entire career he's been KO'd. Ask yourself... do you see Sexy subbing or TKO'ing him? I think Akiyama's only shot here is to win by decision and that seems very unlikely - but if you're going to take him, go for Sexyama by DEC at +520 (it was something like that last time I checked). Until he cuts to WW I don't think he's going to put together much in the UFC... And even though you don't really see Sexyama overwhelmed, I think Belfort TKO's him in the 1st round. I'm not really one to use MMAth, but Belfort took out Franklin with ease and I think Franklin would win against Akiyama even though he's past his prime.

A "decent run" a long time before he stepped into the cage with Silva. Belfort has not seen later rounds of a fight in a long time ^^.

Anyone saying "Oh he lost to Bisping" read above about the reach advantage, Akiyama has shitty reach and tends to get picked apart by taller fighters. Leban was on his way to loosing that fight unanimously. Akiyama out-struck Leban the whole fight (excluding maybe 2 exchanges they had). Lol @ the MMA Math. Here's my math, if someone hasn't fought in the UFC since 103, has a huge layoff coming off of a "decent run", has all of his "highlights" that look like they were released as soon as the colored TV was, and is training like this:

Don't let that music hype you up, mute it and his training is quite sad honestly.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/7/6/...hihiro-akiyama
He's a slow and sorry old man.

[sirchadwick1]

Hope you're not throwing too much down on Sexy. I think the old man takes your money.

[Wrecked]

Hope you're not throwing too much down on Sexy. I think the old man takes your money.

I disagree with you sir, but I still respect your input and opinion.

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

If Sexyama wins, Wrecked is gonna claim he bet $100,000 on it and won a quarter million.

However, if Belfort KOs him (which is likely), he will come back and say "Man, I'm glad I dodged that bullet by not betting on it," and then come up with some irrelevant excuse as to why he was "smart" enough not to make the play.

We know your tricks Wrecked, and you lost everyone's respect when you said you were gonna bet 5k or whatever it was on Pettis and then when he lost claimed you dodged a bullet because "Guida trains with Jackson."

No one cares about your advice or air bets.

[sirchadwick1]

As I do yours as well... hard to believe that Akiyama is actually the older guy.

Fun Facts

Vitor Belfort
• 19-9 overall (8-5 UFC)
• 34 years old
• 6’0, 185 lbs
• 74-inch reach
• 3-1, 3 KOs at 195 lbs or less
• 4-1 in last 5 fights
• 7-3 in last 10
• All 8 UFC wins inside the distance (7 by KO/TKO and 1 by SUB)
• 68.4% of career wins by KO/TKO
• 10.5% of career wins by SUB
• 21.1% of career wins by decision
• 33.3% of career losses by KO/TKO
• 11.1% of career losses by SUB
• 55.6% of career losses by decision
• Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
• Former UFC Heavyweight Tournament winner
• Current layoff is 182 days
• Longest layoff of his career is 504 days

Yoshihiro Akiyama
• 13-3, 2 NC overall (1-2 UFC)
• 35 years old (will be 36 by fight night)
• 5’10, 185 lbs
• 75-inch reach
• 3-2 in last 5 fights, including back-to-back losses coming into this fight
• 6-2, 2 NC in last 10 fights
• Lone UFC win by split decision
• 16 out of 18 professional fights have ended inside the distance (12-2, 2NC in those fights; 1-1 in fights that lasted the distance)
• 14 out of 18 professional fights ended in the first round (10-1, 2 NC in those fights)
• 38.5% of career wins by KO/TKO
• 53.8% of career wins by SUB
• 7.7% of career wins by decision
• 3 career losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB and 1 decision
• All 3 UFC fights won Fight of the Night
• Current layoff is 294 days
• Longest layoff of his career is 357 days

[jspectyper]

I see vitor winning inside the distance. He's fought much better competition but simply chokes or doesnt win the big ones, however he has beat a few. Vitor just has the superior striking and well see how akiyama does when he gets clipped a few times. However if he goes to his roots and uses his judo like he should he might make the fight interesting.

[Wrecked]

If Sexyama wins, Wrecked is gonna claim he bet $100,000 on it and won a quarter million.

However, if Belfort KOs him (which is likely), he will come back and say "Man, I'm glad I dodged that bullet by not betting on it," and then come up with some irrelevant excuse as to why he was "smart" enough not to make the play.

We know your tricks Wrecked, and you lost everyone's respect when you said you were gonna bet 5k or whatever it was on Pettis and then when he lost claimed you dodged a bullet because "Guida trains with Jackson."

No one cares about your advice or air bets.

It was 1,200$ that I received back from financial aid scholarships. I made a thread asking if I should make such a large wager on this fight, and saw that Pettis would easily beat Guida. I thought the odds were so low because it was Pettis's first fight in the UFC. When I did some research I learned that Guida does train with Greg Jackson, than I started thinking about this just being a shitty wrestling match, and thought about it and decided not to risk any money. I am 100% new to gambling, I do not know money management (I am learning), and I was just being foolish and wanted to go all in on one fight. I backed out of the bet because I was scared of loosing all of that money. Which I was very lucky to do, and I learned that you can't just bet all your money if you have a hunch on a fight, it doesnt work like that especially on fights.

Why would I come back and say I bet a large sum of money if I didn't? To gain respect from people on a forum? How would that even benefit me when you guys would ask to see the ticket, and I wouldn't be able to show it? If you're implying I'm Ron or whoever made the Tito Ortiz V Ryan Bader thread and was all like "Oh I tricked ya " than you're wrong.

I am simply looking for advice, to air out my opinions, and build a perspective based on my opinions and the opinions of others.

As I do yours as well... hard to believe that Akiyama is actually the older guy.

Fun Facts

Vitor Belfort
• 19-9 overall (8-5 UFC)
• 34 years old
• 6’0, 185 lbs
• 74-inch reach
• 3-1, 3 KOs at 195 lbs or less
• 4-1 in last 5 fights
• 7-3 in last 10
• All 8 UFC wins inside the distance (7 by KO/TKO and 1 by SUB)
• 68.4% of career wins by KO/TKO
• 10.5% of career wins by SUB
• 21.1% of career wins by decision
• 33.3% of career losses by KO/TKO
• 11.1% of career losses by SUB
• 55.6% of career losses by decision
• Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
• Former UFC Heavyweight Tournament winner
• Current layoff is 182 days
• Longest layoff of his career is 504 days

Yoshihiro Akiyama
• 13-3, 2 NC overall (1-2 UFC)
• 35 years old (will be 36 by fight night)
• 5’10, 185 lbs
• 75-inch reach
• 3-2 in last 5 fights, including back-to-back losses coming into this fight
• 6-2, 2 NC in last 10 fights
• Lone UFC win by split decision
• 16 out of 18 professional fights have ended inside the distance (12-2, 2NC in those fights; 1-1 in fights that lasted the distance)
• 14 out of 18 professional fights ended in the first round (10-1, 2 NC in those fights)
• 38.5% of career wins by KO/TKO
• 53.8% of career wins by SUB
• 7.7% of career wins by decision
• 3 career losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB and 1 decision
• All 3 UFC fights won Fight of the Night
• Current layoff is 294 days
• Longest layoff of his career is 357 days

Too bad those "fun facts" don't display Belfort's lay off prior to his Anderson Silva fight, which showed us nothing from him. We learned nothing from Belfort from that fight, besides that he can not take a front kick from Anderson Silva. As far as I'm concerned, he has been laid off since UFC 103 when he TKO'd Franklin. I am aware Belfort is older, I was suggesting in his training video that he looks as if he is an old man and slow in his training. I was also suggesting that his "ring rust" may contribute to him looking as if he is an old man in the octagon against Akiyama.

[The HOFF]

I like Akiyama. I already have 5u on him. I might play Akiyama ITD +460 as well, going to wait to see the weigh in.

Bisping is actually a skilled striker. No power, but very good technically. I hate saying this but I would take Bisping over Belfort if they fought. Akiyama is not the greatest technically but has power. He rocked Belcher, Leben, and Bisping, but just didn't finish any of them. I don't put much into Belfort's win over Franklin. I clearly saw two shots to the back of the head. Belfort looked awful to me at 185. He looked drained and too skinny against Silva. Maybe that was a bad cut and this one will be better, but from that training video it sure looks like he has a lot to cut. And who the F gets knocked out by a front kick? Ok Couture too. But I think Vitor's chin is gone. Lastly, no more juice for Vitor. You can't honestly tell me he didn't juice back in the day.

I could be way off on this one, no doubt. And if Belfort wins I will say good for you, he beated many men. But people thought I was stupid for taking Dos Anjos against Sot, and as it turns out I was not stupid.

Wrecked

[Wrecked]

I like Akiyama. I already have 5u on him. I might play Akiyama ITD +460 as well, going to wait to see the weigh in.

Bisping is actually a skilled striker. No power, but very good technically. I hate saying this but I would take Bisping over Belfort if they fought. Akiyama is not the greatest technically but has power. He rocked Belcher, Leben, and Bisping, but just didn't finish any of them. I don't put much into Belfort's win over Franklin. I clearly saw two shots to the back of the head. Belfort looked awful to me at 185. He looked drained and too skinny against Silva. Maybe that was a bad cut and this one will be better, but from that training video it sure looks like he has a lot to cut. And who the F gets knocked out by a front kick? Ok Couture too. But I think Vitor's chin is gone. Lastly, no more juice for Vitor. You can't honestly tell me he didn't juice back in the day.

I could be way off on this one, no doubt. And if Belfort wins I will say good for you, he beated many men. But people thought I was stupid for taking Dos Anjos against Sot, and as it turns out I was not stupid.

Wrecked

[sirchadwick1]

You've got some balls Hoff, I'll give you that. Usually we see eye-to-eye on most UFC fights, but we definitely have different views here. Belfort looked awful to you in the opening round against Silva? I know we didn't get to see much of him but the way he was moving around looked pretty sharp to me up until the head kick. And that kick would have knocked out even some of the greatest chins so don't underestimate Silva's power along with his damn near perfect technique and accuracy. How is Vitor's chin gone after getting KO'd once in his career by the MW GOAT and one of the best strikers ever in the UFC?
Here's a couple more front kick KO's for your viewing pleasure.... I know Rogan loves to amp things up as if were the first time in history it's ever happened, but believe it or not there have been others prior to Silva/Belfort.
http://www.mma-scraps.com/2010/10/29...k-to-the-chin/
http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011...f-steve-lopez/


And as far as the juice, Vitor was obviously on it back in the day... but I think he's still a solid fighter with fast hands and more than most MW's can handle. He just doesn't look as intimidating and physique means nothing when it comes to fighting. I was with you 100% on Dos Anjos over G-Sot and that was a nice play that cashed. But I think the call on Sexy is a swing and miss play without much value.

I like Akiyama. I already have 5u on him. I might play Akiyama ITD +460 as well, going to wait to see the weigh in.

Bisping is actually a skilled striker. No power, but very good technically. I hate saying this but I would take Bisping over Belfort if they fought. Akiyama is not the greatest technically but has power. He rocked Belcher, Leben, and Bisping, but just didn't finish any of them. I don't put much into Belfort's win over Franklin. I clearly saw two shots to the back of the head. Belfort looked awful to me at 185. He looked drained and too skinny against Silva. Maybe that was a bad cut and this one will be better, but from that training video it sure looks like he has a lot to cut. And who the F gets knocked out by a front kick? Ok Couture too. But I think Vitor's chin is gone. Lastly, no more juice for Vitor. You can't honestly tell me he didn't juice back in the day.

I could be way off on this one, no doubt. And if Belfort wins I will say good for you, he beated many men. But people thought I was stupid for taking Dos Anjos against Sot, and as it turns out I was not stupid.

Wrecked

[koscheckbaby]

Akiyama's slow looping punches versus Belfort's straights= I just don't see the value. Plus, even if Akiyama uses his judo, he's the smaller guy, will likely gas, and there's no guarantee he gets the takedown. Belfort better win this fight or his career is over.

[The HOFF]

Belfort looked awful to you in the opening round against Silva? I know we didn't get to see much of him but the way he was moving around looked pretty sharp to me up until the head kick. And that kick would have knocked out even some of the greatest chins so don't underestimate Silva's power along with his damn near perfect technique and accuracy. How is Vitor's chin gone after getting KO'd once in his career by the MW GOAT and one of the best strikers ever in the UFC?

I'm not saying Vitor was terrible, but it just looked like 185 is not a good weight for him. Just my opinion. And I just think 28 fights and age is catching up to Belfort. Akiyama might be older, but has had less fights. And some guys don't deteriorate as much when they get older. Akiyama still looks fresh to me. Belfort looks tired and unmotivated.

And as far as the juice, Vitor was obviously on it back in the day... but I think he's still a solid fighter with fast hands and more than most MW's can handle. He just doesn't look as intimidating and physique means nothing when it comes to fighting.

Agreed. He still has speed but I just think the power might be gone.

But I think the call on Sexy is a swing and miss play without much value.

You could be totally right. And if you are I'll come back and admit I was WAY off. But I just have that funny feeling about this one. And my funny feeling about underdogs is hitting at like 78%.

[sirchadwick1]

78%? Damn nice for dog picks! Please don't tell me you had Tito over Bader. I wanted to cry a bit after that one...

[The HOFF]

78%? Damn nice for dog picks! Please don't tell me you had Tito over Bader. I wanted to cry a bit after that one...

Oh I was just making that number up! Ha! I'm just saying that you just look at fights and can see that big upset happening sometimes. I'm not claiming I knew all of these or won on all of these but off the top of my head these are some fights that I had the same feeling about. Some I bet, some I didn't: Silva over Fedor, Siver over Sot, Guida over Pettis, Dos Anjos over Sot. There were others I was wrong on too. And no I didn't have Tito over Bader, after backing him against Forrest and Hamill I had enough.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Good discussion up in hurrrr....

Interesting breakdown, wrecked, but I have to disagree with some of your points although you present many good aspects too. All in all though, I think vitor is gonna smash akiyama. The odds are enticing to place on sexy and high enough to keep me away from playing vitor, but I think at the current odds its best to stay away - they are both kinda 'traps' per se. IF sexy was +300 or higher I would make a value play, but that's it. Otherwise I really don't like him in this fight. If belcher and bisping beat him on the feet, I think vitor does soo too, and vitor has much more KO power than both and has a huge speed advantage. He is also a bjj black belt and probably has better grappling than both belcher and leben. I also think you're underestimating vitor's size, he will be much bigger than sexy, who I think could def make ww. I know there aren't many odds out on this fight card yet, but I'm sure there will be a better dog to bet on with a better chance to upset. Either way, GL!

[Wrecked]

Good discussion up in hurrrr....

Interesting breakdown, wrecked, but I have to disagree with some of your points although you present many good aspects too. All in all though, I think vitor is gonna smash akiyama. The odds are enticing to place on sexy and high enough to keep me away from playing vitor, but I think at the current odds its best to stay away - they are both kinda 'traps' per se. IF sexy was +300 or higher I would make a value play, but that's it. Otherwise I really don't like him in this fight. If belcher and bisping beat him on the feet, I think vitor does soo too, and vitor has much more KO power than both and has a huge speed advantage. He is also a bjj black belt and probably has better grappling than both belcher and leben. I also think you're underestimating vitor's size, he will be much bigger than sexy, who I think could def make ww. I know there aren't many odds out on this fight card yet, but I'm sure there will be a better dog to bet on with a better chance to upset. Either way, GL!

Thanks I appreciate that.
I honestly think these two size up nicely against each other. I am suspect of Vitor's BJJ, his stand up, his cardio, and that is all because of his ring rust. I believe the only reason he's back in that cage is because of money, and he's fighting for a pay-check. I don't think he's anything like he was, at all. I don't believe in Vitor, and I'm not afraid to bet against him when he has Sexyama in front of him.

Hoff I'm still deciding on how big I should go in, keep in mind I'm a full time college student, and I have a part time job waiting tables! I was doing the calcs if I would win and I was thinking 400 (10 units).

[bogbat]

Why would people like Sexyama to beat Belfort when he got soundly picked apart by the Mediocre Count? Anyone Bisping soundly beats is trash, don't forget that. Belfort may have certain issues, but I can't see him not completely outboxing the shit out of Sexyama.

Don't let your hate for Bisping's personality and point fighting style cloud your judgement. He is ranked in the top ten in the middleweight division by all major websites and deserves to be there. He has very good technical striking by MMA standards, descent take down defense and an underrated guard. He also has a sturdy chin, anyone could be knocked out by one of Dan Henderson's right hands. The only real criticism Bisping deserves is his lack of knock out power.

[Hat McCulloch]

Belfort will destroy him, I predict a knockout in the first 2 minutes

[kmdubya]

Don't let your hate for Bisping's personality and point fighting style cloud your judgement. He is ranked in the top ten in the middleweight division by all major websites and deserves to be there. He has very good technical striking by MMA standards, descent take down defense and an underrated guard. He also has a sturdy chin, anyone could be knocked out by one of Dan Henderson's right hands. The only real criticism Bisping deserves is his lack of knock out power.

I'm a Bisbing hater, but I agree with all of the except the sturdy chin. He's been rocked / wobbled in numerous fights so I don't consider his chin good at all.

[Vaughany]

Don't let your hate for Bisping's personality and point fighting style cloud your judgement. He is ranked in the top ten in the middleweight division by all major websites and deserves to be there. He has very good technical striking by MMA standards, descent take down defense and an underrated guard. He also has a sturdy chin, anyone could be knocked out by one of Dan Henderson's right hands. The only real criticism Bisping deserves is his lack of knock out power.

I agree. Bisping has taken solid enough hits from Rivera and Akiyama and just kept going, and got dropped by Kang and Wanderlei but recovered. So yes he might get dropped as he did against Kang and Wanderlei which might superficially suggest he doesnt have a solid chin, but then on the flipside he still managed to survive which shows he's resilient and has great recovery (regain equilibrium/composure well), unlike other fighters who get dropped and then finished with ease such as Goulet! I think there's a similar misconception with Munoz as well, people think he has a weak chin, I look at it more that he has poor defence but great recovery ability as he showd against Maia and Grove.

[Wrecked]

Belfort will destroy him, I predict a knockout in the first 2 minutes

[sarcasm]Great insight and elaboration. You're an amazing intelligent human-being.[/sarcasm]

Where's your ticket?