2.5* Brock Lesnar -140 vs. Randy Couture
As a hardcore MMA fan, I want Randy Couture to win. No hardcore fan wants to see Brock Lesnar as champion or as one of the “faces” of the UFC (or MMA for that matter). Though he has an elite wrestling background and is an athletic freak of nature, Lesnar is still seen as a WWE superstar and him becoming champion will hurt the legitimacy of the sport (though may help the sport as a whole grow). I can only imagine hearing Jim Lampley saying that MMA fighters don’t need skill because a pro wrestler is their heavyweight champion.

From an unbiased perspective though, it’s hard for me not to choose Lesnar. I originally got him as a +130 dog and his line has continually dropped ever since. Yes, Randy is 9-1 as an underdog, more experienced, and has both better hands and submission skills than Lesnar. But he is at a disadvantage in all the places he usually excels in, either because Lesnar is superior (wrestling) or because his speed and strength will neutralize it (clinch fighting and dirty boxing). As I said in an earlier post, Randy’s clinch game is much better than Lesnar’s, but can your really see him choosing to exchange short power punches with Lesnar?

There are also many other factors to be considered (Randy’s age, Brock’s inexperience, etc.) but as both sides have been discussed so many times at length, I’m not going to even bother writing out my thoughts on the issues. In the end, I don’t see this being the long match that some people are predicting and think that this is going to be a rather one sided affair. It’ll only be a matter of time before Brock gets top position, overwhelms Randy, and pounds him out. Look for this to happen in either the second or third round.


3.3* Kenny Florian -200 vs. Joe Stevenson
Originally I thought this was a horrible matchup for Florian and that Joe Daddy was a lock to win. Florian’s takedown defense is nothing spectacular and his physical strength is definitely a liability. However, I vastly overrated Joe Daddy’s takedown ability and wrongly compared him to Sean Sherk. He is neither as fast nor has wrestling shot that Sherk possesses and the majority of his takedowns come from within the clinch. Getting to the clinch will be a problem for Stevenson as he is at a disadvantage with his reach and striking skills. While he will be able to score a takedown from here, he still runs the risk of getting caught (and cut) with a knee or elbow from Florian (due to Florian’s Muay Thai).

As both of these fighters are BJJ black belts and excel at ground fighting, it is inevitable that this fight hits the mat. On the ground, Stevenson will look to use his superior wrestling along with his BJJ to gain/keep top position and try to ground and pound his way to victory. Florian on the other hand, will look to throw his vicious elbows from either position and use his BJJ to stand back up where he has a significant advantage. It won’t surprise me to see Stevenson win via decision, but I think that his suspect cardio along and his inferior striking will lead to Florian winning this fight either by unanimous decision or by stoppage late in the fight.

5* Gabriel Gonzaga -370 vs. Josh Hendricks
Gonzaga (9-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) was once seen as an elite heavyweight after he posted a six fight win streak that concluded with a highlight reel right high kick KO of Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic at UFC 70. Following this, he was given a title fight against Randy Courture at UFC 74 and was a heavy favorite. Unfortunately for Gonzaga, he got abused by Couture and was TKO’d in the third round. This was followed by another defeat, this time getting TKO’d in the second round by Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Gonzaga bounced back from the first back to back losses in his career by submitting Justin McCully at UFC 86.

Josh Hendricks (15-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is making his debut in the UFC. He’s fought primarily on cards in the Midwest and has shown to be heavy handed as well as a skilled wrester (two time Division II All-American at Ashland University). Hendricks is also riding a ten fight win streak with one no contest in his last eleven fights.

Hendricks has many things working against him in this fight. This is first his time in the UFC so the obvious nervousness that comes with it will be present. His wrestling is no match for Gonzaga’s BJJ skills and his standup is at best on the same level. He has the advantage in punching power but Gonzaga’s kicks are brutal and can come both high and low.

Overall, he is just not on the same level as Gonzaga. Gonzaga can probably win this fight by being in the same shape he was for the Werdum fight, but I don’t see that happening. This fight is a must win for Gonzaga to get his name back in the Heavyweight title mix and I see him in prime condition and ready to go. He can win in a myriad of ways but I think that he’ll submit Hendricks in the second round.

1* Nate Quarry +190 vs. Demian Maia
I think people are selling The Rock short here and he has a much better chance to win this fight than people think.

2* Alvin Robinson EVEN vs. Mark Bocek
I see this fight going the same way that Robinson’s bout with Jorge Gurgel did except he won’t lose the first round and that this match may get stopped within the distance.


LEANS

Jorge Gurgel -115 vs. Aaron Riley
Jeremy Stephens -150 vs. Rafael dos Anjos

I’m leaning towards these two right now but haven’t decided if their worth the play. I’m usually the first person to bet against Gurgel but he’s been training at Sityodtong for this fight and I think he might actually have a solid game plan. I know Stephens is a solid fighter but I’m trying to find out more about dos Anjos; don’t want to have any surprises.