[aznufcguy]

Hey Guys,

At +135, i think Franklin is good value here. IMO, I think Franklin should be the favorite at around -140.

IMO, Franklin is a better and more diverse striker than Nog. Nog is a pure stiff boxer with no kicks, while Franklin mixes it well with punches and Kicks. Also, I give the power advantage to Rich as well.

Nog is not a good wrestler, and Rich has pretty good takedown defense. He was able to stifle Okami easily….only Dan Henderson was able to effectively take Rich down and Dan is much better in takedowns than Nog.

Even if the fight ends on the floor, Rich has very good bbj. He’s never been submitted ever, and training with a BJJ ace in Gurgel helps.

I think this will be a standup fight where Franklin has the more fluid, diverse, and powerful style.

[Vaughany]

Heads up for any Euro based degenerates, Bluesq.com have Nog at +110. They opened it at +137.5. I've maxed out on both, got myself a guaranteed profit arb, £330 either way.

[scofflaw]

Heads up for any Euro based degenerates, Bluesq.com have Nog at +110. They opened it at +137.5. I've maxed out on both, got myself a guaranteed profit arb, £330 either way.

I'm jealous.

I'll be putting money on Franklin. I haven't seen anything from Nog recently that shows me he should be a favorite. Rich is very well rounded and he'll probably out-strike Nog because he's a technical fighter that threatens with more than just punches. I like Franklin's experience and skill to negate offensive bjj from Nog.
Franklin by decision.

[bjpenn85]

got taken down i think, nice catch vaughany!

[jin2daj]

franklin is a little undersized at lhw i think, what if nog just bullies him around? nog has pretty solid boxing and a better reach.

[Kaladarus]

This fight could go either way. I think Nog should be the favorite, but Franklin's got a good shot. At +135 it's an okay play.

[rocky mattioli]

lil nog has been in with 3 successive wrestlers(brilz/bader/davis)..that appears to be his achilles heel..... and i liked the way he handled another lefty striker(luiz cane)......

i`m thinking this is a better match-up for him...and he`s bigger....

[Educ8d Degener8]

franklin is a little undersized at lhw i think, what if nog just bullies him around? nog has pretty solid boxing and a better reach.

Jin, Franklin's got a 1-inch reach advantage from the info I have available...

[Ladle]

Heads up for any Euro based degenerates, Bluesq.com have Nog at +110. They opened it at +137.5. I've maxed out on both, got myself a guaranteed profit arb, £330 either way.

Thanks a million for this. You're the man. I think a lot of people have been drilling it because it's been taken down entirely now, lol.

lil nog has been in with 3 successive wrestlers(brilz/bader/davis)..that appears to be his achilles heel..... and i liked the way he handled another lefty striker(luiz cane)......

i`m thinking this is a better match-up for him...and he`s bigger....

Agreed, though I'm convinced that Luiz Cane is blind in his right eye.

[aznufcguy]

yup Franklin has the 1 inch reach advantage here. And Cane is an average fighter at best (4-3 UFC record, fighting against mediocre competition)...so I wouldn't say Nog has beaten quality UFC level fighters lately.

Franklin beat past their prime guys in Wanderlei and Chuck....but even an aging Wanderlei or/and Chuck are more dangerous on the feet vs. Lil Nog (Lil Nog is somewhat past his prime as well).

Size isnt a big deal. Forrest is a HUGE LHW, but Franklin held his own against chuck, okami (basically LHW size)...and fought hendo (nearly won...split decision) and wandy, two guys who fought at 205 before.

I think +135 for franklin is excellent value

[Ladle]

I think people are overrating Franklin a bit. Let's not forget that this is a guy who was rocked and dropped by weak punches from Evan Tanner and David Loiseau. Rogerio isn't a world-beater, but if he tags Franklin, Franklin's wheels are probably going to come off.

In my opinion, the value is with Rogerio here.

[terryl999]

I like little nog.....I think franklin is shot

[rocky mattioli]

he`s actually almost 2 years older than lil nog....

i never bought that reach stuff.....it doesn`t take into account stances/styles etc.....height`s more important.....anyhoo,in this case it`s not a real issue if the tale of the tape is correct....1 inch(height and reach) is negligible...

[TrajaD]

lil nog will get spanked. his dad wont be happy

[jspectyper]

Still can't pick a clear winner in this one, do you go with the fighter more technical in the stand up and ground or a more proven fighter and former ufc champ like ace?

[NickBaragona]

This is definitely a tough one...but I am leaning towards Franklin.

[Camdemonium]

I'm really surprised by the above posts. I'm pounding Nog at -160. I think it should probably be like -200. Franklin has a big name, that's about it. Yah he beat Chuck and Wanderlei. But everyone has KO'ed Chuck now. Wanderlei also hasn't looked very good since coming to the ufc. Franklin got destroyed by Belfort, and has been rocked by punches in nearly every fight since he started. People above have been writing off Luiz Cane, but he's a bad dude and Rogerio finished him. I think Ladle is right, if Franklin gets clipped, then it's over. The only way Franklin wins is by decision because I don't think he can take Rogerio down and his striking is nice but it lacks serious power, and he will probably be picked apart on the feet. Don't get me wrong I think Franklin is a nice guy and a hell of a fighter but I think his time might be over and don't bet the name, think about the fight. Rich hasn't looked very impressive in a long time, it's just been showcase fights against other "big" names. These relatively unknown guys are dangerous too. (see rick story) I just don't see Rich pulling it out.

Prediction: Little Nog by KO in round 1.

[capone1899]

I like Lil Nog to win but the line has steadily kept going up to the point its too high for me to bet

[Vaughany]

Thanks a million for this. You're the man. I think a lot of people have been drilling it because it's been taken down entirely now, lol.

All good! They've gone and suspended my account and asking for proof of ID now..usual hassle!

[sirchadwick1]

I'm on Nog at -150 for 2u. Neither guys appear to be what they used to be, but it looks as if Franklin has fallen a bit harder. Nog has the better boxing and I don't see Franklin taking him down and holding him there. I see a TKO win here for Nogueira.

[Jordan23]

Lets not fool ourselves people. Nog is winning this fight.

[Nick The Greek]

Nogueira outstriking Franklin for 3 rounds seems the most likely outcome to me.

[Wrecked]

Lets not fool ourselves people. Nog is winning this fight.

Agreed, Franklin aint shit.

[aznufcguy]

Rogerio isnt really a guy that finishes w/ strikes. His only real KO was a knee of the Janitor...and the only beatdown he did was on Overeem pre-steriods.

Rich moves around and is more fluid...and has also finished w/ KO + TKO.

Still think Rich takes this one by unimous decision

[Ladle]

Rogerio isnt really a guy that finishes w/ strikes. His only real KO was a knee of the Janitor...and the only beatdown he did was on Overeem pre-steriods.

He hurt Luiz Cane very badly, and he definitely has the power to short-circuit Franklin's dodgy chin.

That said, I certainly agree that Franklin has the better footwork. I just don't think it will be enough to compensate for his chin.

[aznufcguy]

Agree he did not hurt Cane badly...although I'm not counting Cane as a quality fighter at all.

I also agree Franklin does take some hard shots - but do remember that he's only been knocked out Silva (who KO's pretty much everyone) and Belfort (13 of 19 wins are by ko/tko...so no shame here). I wouldnt put Rogerio's power or athleticism or diverse striking set anywhere close to Silva and Belfort. Rogerio, despite being a good boxer, throws no kicks and is stiff/lacks movement.

Franklin, despite his sometimes suspect standup defense, mixes it well with punches and kicks and at least circles and moves around. If anything, Frankilin is more of a threat to KO/TKO Nog. Lutter, an aging Liddell, Quarry, Tanner, Matt Hamill, and J MacDonald arent great fighters....but Franklin finished them all.

Not saying Franklin is 100% winning the fight...but i think at +135 thats good value. This should be an EVEN fight at best.

[Ladle]

I also agree Franklin does take some hard shots - but do remember that he's only been knocked out Silva (who KO's pretty much everyone) and Belfort (13 of 19 wins are by ko/tko...so no shame here).

You're forgetting Lyoto Machida (incidentally, the shots which Machida messed Franklin up with weren't particularly brutal). And, as I said, Franklin was rocked and dropped by weak punches from Evan Tanner and David Loiseau. He does not have a good chin. It's as simple as that.

I wouldnt put Rogerio's power or athleticism or diverse striking set anywhere close to Silva and Belfort. Rogerio, despite being a good boxer, throws no kicks and is stiff/lacks movement.

The point still stands that if he tags Franklin with a decent punch, Franklin is probably going to get rocked. And as we've seen from Rich Franklin several times before, upon getting rocked, he does not recover well.

Franklin, despite his sometimes suspect standup defense, mixes it well with punches and kicks and at least circles and moves around. If anything, Frankilin is more of a threat to KO/TKO Nog. Lutter, an aging Liddell, Quarry, Tanner, Matt Hamill, and J MacDonald arent great fighters....but Franklin finished them all.

Definitely disagree. You can't intelligently say that Franklin has a better chance of knocking out Rogerio than vice versa. Franklin might have better movement and a more diverse striking game, but his chin sucks. Rogerio is a better technical boxer, can take a decent lick, and has more than enough power to hurt, drop, and possibly finish Franklin.

Not saying Franklin is 100% winning the fight...but i think at +135 thats good value. This should be an EVEN fight at best.

Rogerio should definitely be favoured. He's easily a good enough boxer to put Franklin in a lot of trouble on the feet. If Loiseau and Tanner can hurt Franklin, then so can Rogerio.

[aznufcguy]

You're forgetting Lyoto Machida (incidentally, the shots which Machida messed Franklin up with weren't particularly brutal). And, as I said, Franklin was rocked and dropped by weak punches from Evan Tanner and David Loiseau. He does not have a good chin. It's as simple as that.

The Machida fight was in 2003 - both guys were different fighters. Mahida dropped Rampage too, doesnt mean Rampage has a weak chin.

The point still stands that if he tags Franklin with a decent punch, Franklin is probably going to get rocked. And as we've seen from Rich Franklin several times before, upon getting rocked, he does not recover well.

Does not recover well? He got up and finished both Tanner and the Crow. Yea he didn't recover from Anderson Silva and Belfort, but pretty much no one does. He took a bomb from henderson in Round 1, and recovered well. Keep in mind that just b/c you get dropped it doesnt mean the fight is over or u have a weak chin....or else Faber would have won that fight against Cruz based on 3 knockdowns.

Definitely disagree. You can't intelligently say that Franklin has a better chance of knocking out Rogerio than vice versa. Franklin might have better movement and a more diverse striking game, but his chin sucks. Rogerio is a better technical boxer, can take a decent lick, and has more than enough power to hurt, drop, and possibly finish Franklin.

Once again, his chin does not "suck." As i said, Rich has only been finished by two guys in the past 7 years. He's been dropped, but always recovered and won the fight. He also took a few hard shots from Wandy, and ended up winning a very decisive decision. Rampage got knocked down by Shogun, Wandy, Dan hendo, and Machida....dont mean hes got a weak chin. He got Ko'ed twice, but actually recovered to win against hendo and machida.

Also, Franklin has just a good chance of dropping Rogerio as Rogerio can drop Franklin. Franklin has many more stoppages than Rogerio....so lets not think narrowly and assume only Rogerio can threaten Franklin and not vice versa. If Franklin tags Rogerio w/ a good shot, its likely Rogerio is going to stumble as well.

Rogerio should definitely be favoured. He's easily a good enough boxer to put Franklin in a lot of trouble on the feet. If Loiseau and Tanner can hurt Franklin, then so can Rogerio.

Once again, only Silva and Belfort really finished Franklin. hendo won a very close split decision, but Franklin was getting the better of the striking exchanges but hendo won on the strengh of 5 takedowns. Also, while Rich is definitely not a wrestler, he does have decent takeodnw ability. He has a 65% takeodwn success rate, which is top 10 in ufc history. Granted hes only had 20 attempts in the UFC, but hey 13 out of 20 aint bad.

Noguira has a 26% strike rate http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Antonio-Rogerio-Nogueira. Thats not too impressive for a so called great boxer. Franklin sports a much higher 43% http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Rich-Franklin

Anyways, ive got 200 to win win 270. May the best guy win. Best of luck to everyone for UFC 133.

[Vaughany]

[Ladle]

Once again, only Silva and Belfort really finished Franklin.

Once again, you're forgetting that Lyoto Machida finished him.

Also, while Rich is definitely not a wrestler, he does have decent takeodnw ability. He has a 65% takeodwn success rate, which is top 10 in ufc history. Granted hes only had 20 attempts in the UFC, but hey 13 out of 20 aint bad.

I doubt that he can take Rogerio down, and almost certainly not with any regularity. Rogerio has been training his takedown defense diligently for the past two (and a half) camps, and his improvements in that area were evident in the first round of the Davis fight.

Noguira has a 26% strike rate http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Antonio-Rogerio-Nogueira. Thats not too impressive for a so called great boxer. Franklin sports a much higher 43% http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Rich-Franklin

This doesn't support your point at all. With Franklin's chin, it might only take one punch from Rogerio to get the ball rolling and put Franklin on wobbly legs. From there, that could be all she wrote. Franklin's chin isn't good, and neither is his ability to recovery.

Anyways, ive got 200 to win win 270. May the best guy win. Best of luck to everyone for UFC 133.

Good luck, but I don't think it's a smart bet.

[Vaughany]

At least Franklin is sparring with some better fights this time. He's sparring with Mitrione would could help

[Chairib]

Why are you citing percentages?

[aznufcguy]

Once again, you're forgetting that Lyoto Machida finished him.



I doubt that he can take Rogerio down, and almost certainly not with any regularity. Rogerio has been training his takedown defense diligently for the past two (and a half) camps, and his improvements in that area were evident in the first round of the Davis fight.



This doesn't support your point at all. With Franklin's chin, it might only take one punch from Rogerio to get the ball rolling and put Franklin on wobbly legs. From there, that could be all she wrote. Franklin's chin isn't good, and neither is his ability to recovery.



Good luck, but I don't think it's a smart bet.

I know Machida finished, but that was in 2003. A lot of things have changed since then...and getting KO’ed by Machida is nothing to be ashamed about. Thiago Silva and Suga dont have weak chins.

Agree that there is no gurantee Franklin will take down Rogerio. In fact, he most likely won’t. But hey in a close decision all you need is 1 takedown sometimes to win a round. The judges just love it. Franklin will be kicking Nog’s legs pretty often, so in later rounds a takedown is definitely possible. Thats what happened in the fight w/ Wanderlei.

Once again, your missing the point. He’s only been finished via strikes by Anderson Silva, Belfort, and Machida. I am fairly confident Silva finishes Nog easily in a fight, and Belfort + Machida certainly have a good chance of Ko/TKO Nog also. Being Ko/TKO by those 3 guys is not something to be ashamed about. Your analogy is equivalent of saying Couture has a weak chin b/c Liddell, Lesnar, and Machida TKO/KO’ed him....or Rampage has a weak chin b/c Wanderlei and Shogun KO’ed him and Hendo+Machida dropped him.

I’m not arguing Franklin is the Korean Zombie here....but your making it seem like Franklin is comparable to Arlovski/past-his-prime Liddell. Look anyone can get knocked out by anyone (Tito floored and essentially ended Bader via a punch for gods sake)....but it is unlikely soomeone like Nog (barely finishes anyone by Ko/tko) will KO Franklin. You point to Tanner/Crow dropping Franklin, but dude Franklin ended up coming back and winning both fights.
Lets try and be a bit objective here. These are two aging guys who like to stand on the feet. Nog is a better boxer, but Franklin has a better all around striking game (i.e. mixes in kicks w/ punches, more movement, can go high low, etc). The power advanrage likely goes to Franklin as he has finished a lot of guys, while Nog has just a few finishes by strikes. The grappling is comparable, both guys are not good wrestlers while both guys are good BBJ guys....and both have never been submitted.

Anyways, dont think either guy is a gurantee. This isn't Couture vs. Toney here. Both guys can win, i just think its a 50 50 fight but u get +135 on Rich. You can disagree to disagree...but we'll see in Aug. Btw, i do like reading your posts....im not like some of the unreasonable trolls in this forum who post nonsense.

[Vrakas]

rich will probably lose.nog with knock him out.

[JoshB]

Nog's boxing looked pretty crisp in the Davis fight before he started getting taken down. I wouldn't bet on Franklin.