[MMAbetMASTA]

How much do you all like this fight? I was going to go heavy on Cruz and play another fight moderately. I was going to go with siver at -140, but after researching that fight some more I am a bit hesitant.

I started breaking down tavares / atrain, and I actually think I like this pick more as a secondary bet outside my large play on cruz. This is now more appealing to me than siver/wiman.

I think Atrain can ride out a UD in top position. From what I do know from brad's two ufc fights is this - he got wobbled by baroni and came back with a nice ko. He showed me he has power but not the best technique and a questionable chin. Against Bacynski he was taken down a few times, which leads me to believe Atrain will have no problem getting him down. He also fended off some nice sub attempts of bacynski and threw up some subs himself. Sherdog.com staff actually scored the fight for bacyski 29-28...

What I am afraid of is Atrain venturing from his butter tub and trying to fight a brawl with tavares, something he did against lawlor and leben. I am afraid that if this happens brad can land some bombs. Yet Atrain has a solid chin and I think leben, munoz, and lawlor all have heavy hands that Atrain took. However he can still go down and I think brad has the power to finish if Atrain brawls. I am scared simpson will try to slug it out, but something tells me his fight IQ has gotten bettter...

Overall I think if Atrain sticks to a grappling minded gameplan he will win. If he fights like he did against miranda (albiet not fan friendly, but effective grinding) and takes him down repeadetly and stays in top control I think he can easily ride out a UD.

Also, I think its worth noting that tavares fights outside the ufc were against guys with less than a .500 record (I think 3 of his 7 wins were against fighters who have never won a pro fight). Atrain has fought and beat much better comp, and I also think the fights he lost were VERY competitive.

At -215 I am finding this worthy right now.

How do you guys like a play on Atrain??? What might I be missing about Brad Tavares??? Is there something about him I am overlooking?

I am mostly hesitant to play this line because I don't know much about tavares, and there are a lot of unkowns with him. Betting against a guy I don't know has bit me in the ass before, and I have lost on Atrain before (I've actually bet on him his past three fights- picked him over both Munoz and Leben, and won in his miranda fight). However I know Atrain very well and on paper I think this is an easy match up for him.

All replies appreciated. GL!

[RaiderNation MMA]

im going with tavares, dunno bout yall. i think a train is just too one dimensional and is gonna get ko

[MMAbetMASTA]

im going with tavares, dunno bout yall. i think a train is just too one dimensional and is gonna get ko

how come? Can you elaborate why you think Taveres will win?

Is there somethign I am missing with regard to his tdd?

I think this is the biggest question for Brad's success. IF he can stuff tds and turn it into a slugfest then yes, I'd give brad a slight advantage on the feet (but I don't think atrain is a slouch on the feet either). Yet he was taken down by bacyski a few times and Atrain had no problem getting guys with solid grappling / wrestling backgrounds to the ground. To my knowledge, Brad has no formal wrestling background.

[Nick The Greek]

I like Simpson mainly because I don't see Tavares as a UFC level fighter, like most guys to come off TUF in recent years.

[rocky mattioli]

i think that simpson is a tad overrated by many on this board....

that said,not sure this is the time to step in against him...kinda hoping he wins and steps up in competition.....seems like the ufc wants him around given who they`ve matched him up with post the leben/munoz debacles....

[Straight Cash]

I like Simpson mainly because I don't see Tavares as a UFC level fighter, like most guys to come off TUF in recent years.

I'm not convinced either of them are UFC level fighters...

[v1y]

I like Simpson mainly because I don't see Tavares as a UFC level fighter, like most guys to come off TUF in recent years.

Is this the kind of stupidity that allowed me to get a +200 line on Matt Brown against John Howard?

Most guys from every TUF season don't make the UFC, however every season has produced at least one contender. (And with the exception of 9, more than one).

[Educ8d Degener8]

Is this the kind of stupidity that allowed me to get a +200 line on Matt Brown against John Howard?

Most guys from every TUF season don't make the UFC, however every season has produced at least one contender. (And with the exception of 9, more than one).

To Nick's credit, there are certainly occasions of soft lines on hyped guys (fighters with exposure more for their personas than for their fighting ability) from TUF that can be profitable ventures:

Alex Caceres -- a great fade vs Mackens
Jamie Yager -- another solid fade vs Rich Attonito
Kimbo -- my fav fade of all time vs Meathead

The latter two were even TUF vs TUF, but their was considerable value with the less well-known fighters.

I won't be hammering Simpson at -230 (maybe parlay it or play him by decision), but would've loved to nab his opening line...

[Ladle]

Is this the kind of stupidity that allowed me to get a +200 line on Matt Brown against John Howard?

Most guys from every TUF season don't make the UFC, however every season has produced at least one contender. (And with the exception of 9, more than one).

So the likes of Amir Sadollah and Court McGee are contenders all of a sudden?

Also, there was nothing stupid about anything Nick said. He's totally correct in saying that the vast majority of fighters who come off TUF are not UFC level talent. I have absolutely no idea why you'd even try to dispute that.

[v1y]

Uhh... sounds to me like you proved my point.

Mitrione and Attonito weren't even pushed by the UFC at all initially. They have proven their worth through merit, thus proving that TUF reliably produces contenders, even if it's not the contenders that the UFC intended to produce.

[v1y]

Most guys from every TUF season don't make the UFC, however every season has produced at least one contender. (And with the exception of 9, more than one).

Ladle, learn to read.

The reality is he gave no analysis for why he believed Tavares would lose, other than that he came from TUF.

[Ladle]

Uhh... sounds to me like you proved my point.

Mitrione and Attonito weren't even pushed by the UFC at all initially. They have proven their worth through merit, thus proving that TUF reliably produces contenders, even if it's not the contenders that the UFC intended to produce.

Lol @ calling Rich Attonito a contender after winning one fight at 185 against a guy who didn't belong in the UFC.

Most guys from every TUF season don't make the UFC, however every season has produced at least one contender. (And with the exception of 9, more than one).

Ladle, learn to read.

How does that qualify you to call Nick's post stupid? Everything he said was correct. Stop trolling and being so obnoxious.

[v1y]

Lol @ calling Rich Attonito a contender after winning one fight at 185 against a guy who didn't belong in the UFC.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

[Ladle]

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

Mitrione and Attonito weren't even pushed by the UFC at all initially. They have proven their worth through merit, thus proving that TUF reliably produces contenders

You used Attonito as evidence of TUF producing contenders. Calling Attonito a contender at 185 is laughable.

[v1y]

Well no wonder we can't have a debate, you don't even know what weight class Attonito fights at.

Do you consider Claude Patrick a contender at 3-0 in the UFC? If so, how can you not consider Attonito a contender for beating the same guy WAY more impressively?

[Ladle]

Well no wonder we can't have a debate, you don't even know what weight class Attonito fights at.

Okay, you got me. I meant 170. Now we've got that out the way, care to justify how you think he's a contender there after winning one fight?

[v1y]

It's in my edited post. Perhaps we have differing definitions of a contender. The reality is most would consider Claude Patrick a contender, and they have a common opponent who Attonito beat much more impressively.

If you consider Patrick a contender, surely you must also consider Attonito one?

(Although, I think Patrick would be a favourite over Attonito at this point)

[v1y]

Also, what's with the Amir hate? Dude loses to Hendricks (early stoppage) and Kim who have a combined 10-1 UFC record, and that means he sucks? Admittedly he didn't look great against Damarques, but come on.

[Ladle]

It's in my edited post. Perhaps we have differing definitions of a contender. The reality is most would consider Claude Patrick a contender, and they have a common opponent who Attonito beat much more impressively.

If you consider Patrick a contender, surely you must also consider Attonito one?

(Although, I think Patrick would be a favourite over Attonito at this point)

Uh, no. Not at all. Daniel Roberts is a not a UFC quality fighter: he's got very little after the first three minutes because of his dismal gas tank, and his stand-up is woeful. If you think a win over him solidfies someone as a contender in the UFC, you're wrong.

Secondly, while Claude Patrick has a lot of potential, his accomplishments within the UFC don't warrant contender status. You think a decision over James Wilks is an impressive win? Wilks was absolutely dismantled by Matt Brown and pounded into oblivion from mount. Is Matt Brown a contender at 170 now?

Also, what's with the Amir hate? Dude loses to Hendricks and Kim who have a combined 10-1 UFC record, and that means he sucks? Admittedly he didn't look great against Damarques, but come on.

I was refuting you alleging that every season of TUF has produced a contender. CB Dolloway is still his best win, or perhaps Gerald Harris. In the UFC, the guys he's been matched up against and beaten haven't been good.

[v1y]

Huh? Claude Patrick OWNED Wilks for three rounds. Yes, Brown finished Wilks, but that was not a one sided fight. What is with this nonsense logic that because you finished someone it means you beat them more impressively than someone who decisioned them? I strongly suggest you go back and actually watch those fights. Patrick dismantled Wilks, not Brown.

Again, Sadollah's 5-2 in the UFC, and his losses have come against guys with a combined 10-1 ufc record. That's borderline contender status.

[Ladle]

Huh? Claude Patrick OWNED Wilks for three rounds. Yes, Brown finished Wilks, but that was not a one sided fight. What is with this nonsense logic that because you finished someone it means you beat them more impressively than someone who decisioned them? I strongly suggest you go back and actually watch those fights.

Not a one-sided fight? Maybe you should try actually watching it. The first round was pretty even, but Brown rocked Wilks in the second round with a flying knee, rocked him again with a six punch combo, then almost caught him in a triangle at the end. In the final round, outside of a last ditch kimura attempt, Wilks was completely done. He was mounted with ease, smashed in the face, and then covered up until the referee saved him. Brown totally broke him. Does that sound like a closely contested fight to you?

Also, Claude Patrick "OWNED" him? He positionally controlled him for three rounds and clearly won the fight but did essentially no damage. I wouldn't say it was more impressive than what Matt Brown did to Wilks. Patrick held him down and passed his guard for three rounds; Brown beat him up for two rounds and forced him to quit. So I guess they're both contenders in your eyes!

What is with this nonsense logic that because you finished someone it means you beat them more impressively than someone who decisioned them?

I find it funny that you're accusing someone of using nonsensical logic when you consider Rich Attonito to be a contender after beating Daniel Roberts. Some MMA posters are so funny.

Again, Sadollah's 5-2 in the UFC, and his losses have come against guys with a combined 10-1 record. That's borderline contender status.

Not sure if you're trolling me here. I really hope you are, because I find it genuinely concerning that you'd consider Amir Sadollah a borderline contender when his current streak consists of wins over Peter Sobatta and DaMarques Johnson. That is absolutely absurd. Johnson loses to any low tier UFC welterweight, and Sobatta is very obviously not UFC quality. You seriously need to re-evaluate your definition of a contender.

[v1y]

Patrick didn't take a single hit the whole fight. That is to me the most impressive way to win a fight. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

I don't consider Attonito a contender for beating Daniel Roberts. I consider him a contender for HOW he beat Daniel Roberts, and how he looked against Natal.

Sadollah's contender status comes from the fact that he has good footwork and doesn't get hit a lot. It's true he's getting lobbed soft balls, but it's not his fault that the UFC isn't giving him the fights he needs to "prove" that he's a contender. (And if you prove that you're a contender by beating a big name, it means you always were one.)

[Ladle]

I don't consider Attonito a contender for beating Daniel Roberts. I consider him a contender for HOW he beat Daniel Roberts, and how he looked against Natal.

First and foremost, contender status is predicated on WHO you beat. HOW you beat them is secondary. I don't care how you beat Daniel Roberts. I don't care if you gogoplata Daniel Roberts. I don't care if you Rolling Thunder Daniel Roberts' head off Peter Graham style. The bottom line is that beating Daniel Roberts does not make you a contender at 170 because Daniel Roberts isn't even a UFC quality fighter. The fact Claude Patrick also beat Roberts does absolutely nothing to support your claim, because Claude Patrick's role as a contender isn't singularly defined by his victory over Roberts (and calling Patrick a contender is premature as it is).

and how he looked against Natal.

Didn't look awesome against Natal. Was a very close fight, and 'Sapo' is scarcely worthy of being in the UFC. He gassed against Bongfeldt and almost lost.

Sadollah's contender status comes from the fact that he has good footwork and doesn't get hit a lot. It's true he's getting lobbed soft balls, but it's not his fault that the UFC isn't giving him the fights he needs to prove that he's a contender.

Oh, so good footwork makes you a contender now? Right. Let's just forget about who you beat, or how you beat them. S'all about the footwork.

I don't have too much of a problem with you saying that Sadollah could potentially be a contender one day. I personally think that's completely wrong on the basis that all the top guys at 170 tend to be very good wrestlers who would beat Sadollah, but still. What I do take issue with is you calling Sadollah a contender at this specific point in time, because that's a completely unsubstantiated claim. A win streak over Sobatta and Johnson does not place you anywhere near contender status, and especially not in a talent packed division like 170.

[Thewiseman]

To win this, Tavares better come in severely improved, and then he will still probably lose. Simpsons wrestling should be too much for Tavares.

[MMAbetMASTA]

lol just hopped on and was pleased to see I got over 20 replies, only to find 15 of them are from Van1ty and Ladle going at it haha....

I think there was some good insight from you guys into this fight. Although it was brief and simple, I think the message here is that both guys have yet to prove themselves and neither is especially reliable. I think I might stay away from this one and go back to siver as my second bet.

Also, I was thinking about a str8 on guillard, but it seems to me that -260ish or higher is too heavy. I think he should dominate, but I can't forget many of his past performances, ones where if he fought the same way, guillard would lose to a fighter with the style of roller.

Any other str8 plays you guys liking??? Also like RDA/GSOt to go to decision, as well as KIm/Condit decision.

[v1y]

First and foremost, contender status is predicated on WHO you beat. HOW you beat them is secondary.

So do you think Overeem was a 3-1 favourite over Werdum because of who he beat, or how he beat the guys he beat? I think the answer is obvious.

You would think if who you beat was of primary importance, Werdum would have been a massive favourite since he'd beaten Fedor.

Same logic applies for Jon Jones as a 2-1 favourite over Shogun.

[urge2kill]

What does contender status have to do with odds?

[v1y]

What does contender status have to do with odds?

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that there is a strong positive correlation between the degree to which a fighter is considered a contender, and the percentage of fighters in his division that he is a favourite over.

[Vaughany]

Patrick didn't take a single hit the whole fight. That is to me the most impressive way to win a fight. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

I don't consider Attonito a contender for beating Daniel Roberts. I consider him a contender for HOW he beat Daniel Roberts, and how he looked against Natal.

Sadollah's contender status comes from the fact that he has good footwork and doesn't get hit a lot. It's true he's getting lobbed soft balls, but it's not his fault that the UFC isn't giving him the fights he needs to "prove" that he's a contender. (And if you prove that you're a contender by beating a big name, it means you always were one.)

Sadollah has good footwork? Not really, he has a more of a muay-thai stance (which typically doesn't revolve around footwork) and just has technical striking. He certainly isn't a contender and Stungun wasnt a "softball"

[RaiderNation MMA]

how come? Can you elaborate why you think Taveres will win?

Is there somethign I am missing with regard to his tdd?

I think this is the biggest question for Brad's success. IF he can stuff tds and turn it into a slugfest then yes, I'd give brad a slight advantage on the feet (but I don't think atrain is a slouch on the feet either). Yet he was taken down by bacyski a few times and Atrain had no problem getting guys with solid grappling / wrestling backgrounds to the ground. To my knowledge, Brad has no formal wrestling background.

no doubt a train is the better wrestler but brad tavares is big strong dude at that weight i just dont seem him humping him for 15 mins. i believe he will get taken down but will get back up. and a train has sloppy stand up, i mean if leben can suck him in im sure brad could too.

[Ladle]

So do you think Overeem was a 3-1 favourite over Werdum because of who he beat, or how he beat the guys he beat? I think the answer is obvious.

You would think if who you beat was of primary importance, Werdum would have been a massive favourite since he'd beaten Fedor.

There was a very good reason why Werdum was a large underdog in that fight. It's a concept known as "an unfavourable match-up". All of Werdum's best takedowns come from the clinch, and Overeem is a very dangerous and effective clinch fighter these days. That didn't bode well at all for Werdum, as the only discernible way he'd be able to get the fight to the ground would be to go through serious fire first.

Anyway, your claim that Attonito is a contender at 170 is still total bunkum, and you really can't refute that.

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that there is a strong positive correlation between the degree to which a fighter is considered a contender, and the percentage of fighters in his division that he is a favourite over.

And sometimes we look at how a fighter's skill set matches up with his opponent's skill set, and make a judgment based on that, which then informs who the favourite is.

Same logic applies for Jon Jones as a 2-1 favourite over Shogun.

I'm not saying that how you beat someone isn't significant (indeed, the manner in which Jones destroyed opponents was what resulted in him being the favourite against Shogun). However - as I already said - in terms of determining someone's status as a contender, it comes secondary to WHO you beat. That is an irrefutable fact whether you accept it or not. For example, victories over the likes of Peter Sobatta and DaMarques Jonhson will never elevate your contender status in the same way that victories over, say, Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch, regardless of how you beat Sobatta and Johnson. Who you beat will always be more important. Case in point: Jason Reindhart has been destroying cans in very impressive fashion for eleven years, yet he's obviously not UFC level and will be cut when he inevitably loses his next fight.

Sadollah has good footwork? Not really, he has a more of a muay-thai stance (which typically doesn't revolve around footwork) and just has technical striking. He certainly isn't a contender and Stungun wasnt a "softball"

Yup. I'm surprised anyone could even consider him a potential contender. There's at least 10 guys at 170 I would definitely favour over him, and probably another 10 who I think would have a very decent shot of beating him. His defensive wrestling is a huge liability in a division with so many excellent wrestlers.

[Educ8d Degener8]

According to V1y, 98.6% of all guys in the UFC are "contenders"...

Non-contenders in the UFC:
Edward Faaloloto
Matt Riddle
Ed Herman
Vagner Rocha

Contenders:
Everybody else

[v1y]

I'm not saying that how you beat someone isn't significant (indeed, the manner in which Jones destroyed opponents was what resulted in him being the favourite against Shogun). However - as I already said - in terms of determining someone's status as a contender, it comes secondary to WHO you beat.

Under this explanation, there is no way to justify how Jones was the favourite over Shogun.

There was nothing about the stylistic matchup that said Jones would win, and Shogun had beaten the much bigger names.

The only explanation is HOW jones won his fights.

[v1y]

According to V1y, 98.6% of all guys in the UFC are "contenders"...

Non-contenders in the UFC:
Edward Faaloloto
Matt Riddle
Ed Herman
Vagner Rocha

Contenders:
Everybody else

harharhar U SO FUNY. If you would really like, I could list off all the non contenders in each division currently signed by the UFC?

[sirchadwick1]

Under this explanation, there is no way to justify how Jones was the favourite over Shogun.

There was nothing about the stylistic matchup that said Jones would win, and Shogun had beaten the much bigger names.

The only explanation is HOW jones won his fights.

Really? You don't think his athleticism, frame, height, reach, and wrestling ability helped make him the favorite? That is part of the reason I unloaded on him against Shogun. And the fact that a weaker less athletic version of Jones already took Shogun out and we weren't really sure which Shogun was going to show up... we knew which Bones would. Everyone elses argument "for" Shogun to win seemed to be in relation to his Pride credentials and wins over Chuck and Machida.