1. 06-20-11 09:25 AM #1
    PunisherIND
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    SF Challengers 16 / Bellator 46

    this is going to be a busy mma weekend with strikeforce challengers on friday, bellator on saturday, and ufc on sunday! i thought id start a thread for the two smaller events leading up to sunday's ufc on versus card. any thoughts on these cards and potential plays?

    SF Challengers 16
    Caros Fodor vs. James Terry
    Ryan Couture vs. Matt Ricehouse
    Lorenz Larkin vs. Gian Villante
    Julia Budd vs. Germaine de Randamie
    Jason High vs. Quinn Mulhern

    Bellator 46
    Genair da Silva vs. Marlon Sandro
    Ronnie Mann vs. Adam Schindler
    Pat Curran vs. Luis Palomino
    Jacob Devree vs. Nazareno Malegarie

    i think i will be parlaying couture, larkin, sandro, mann and curran. i imagine all will be big favorites (-200 or worse)

    might make a play on fodor-terry and high-mulhern if either fight has a decent-sized underdog.
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  2. 06-20-11 09:46 AM #2
    Vaughany
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    Larkin over Villante at Evens or better
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  3. 06-20-11 10:02 AM #3
    poopoo333
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Larkin over Villante at Evens or better
    For sure. The only question in this is Larkin's TDD.


    I also like Jason High and possibly Julia Budd in this one. I am pretty sure Budd is the bigger fighter and will be better on the mat. She will be outmatched on the feet though, Randamie is 45-0 in muay thai and KOd Budd in muay thai as well.
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  4. 06-20-11 01:18 PM #4
    illmatick
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    I couldn't see Larken lasting more than 5 minutes at even if he opened that low. I thinks he's playable up to -200. Easily some of the best striking I've seen out of any of the young prospects at 205.


    Where did Villante wrestle at?
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  5. 06-20-11 01:55 PM #5
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by illmatick View Post
    I couldn't see Larken lasting more than 5 minutes at even if he opened that low. I thinks he's playable up to -200. Easily some of the best striking I've seen out of any of the young prospects at 205.


    Where did Villante wrestle at?
    Hofstra I think
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  6. 06-20-11 03:37 PM #6
    rocky mattioli
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    Quote Originally Posted by illmatick View Post
    I couldn't see Larken lasting more than 5 minutes at even if he opened that low. I thinks he's playable up to -200. Easily some of the best striking I've seen out of any of the young prospects at 205.


    Where did Villante wrestle at?

    this....the only ?? would be that villante is coming down from heavy.......
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  7. 06-20-11 06:16 PM #7
    poopoo333
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
    this....the only ?? would be that villante is coming down from heavy.......
    Villante only fought at HW because of the opportunity. He has always been a LHW.
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  8. 06-20-11 06:49 PM #8
    rocky mattioli
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Villante only fought at HW because of the opportunity. He has always been a LHW.

    thanks...now i love larkin even more..
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  9. 06-20-11 06:50 PM #9
    poopoo333
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    Is there any more footage of Larkin out there besides the Scott Lighty fight?
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  10. 06-20-11 07:26 PM #10
    rocky mattioli
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Is there any more footage of Larkin out there besides the Scott Lighty fight?
    http://www.purefight.org/speaker/372...vs-Derek-Grace

    not sure whether this was an amateur fight...it was in 2009 and isn`t listed on his record...


    he was hesitant back then...he was only 22/23 and an mma neophyte...but you could still see the explosion...
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  11. 06-22-11 12:49 PM #11
    Lusty_Argonian
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    When betting on Larkin, I think it's important for us to remember that Gian Villante was overwhelmed by Chad "Protoge of Frye" Griggs which may be hard for Larkin to duplicate.

    I'm absolutely jumping on a moderate play on Larkin if he's in the -150 to -240 area.

    Marlon Sandro, Jason High, Ronnie Mann and Ryan Couture are definitely going to be played on.
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  12. 06-23-11 08:04 PM #12
    Thewiseman
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    Fodor .14u to win .2u
    Larkin .52u to win .5u
    High/Randamie .22u to win .2u
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  13. 06-23-11 09:06 PM #13
    PunisherIND
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    bodog and sportbook have lines for bellator.

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  14. 06-23-11 09:15 PM #14
    bogbat
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    Why are people so confident with Lorenz Larkin? The only fight footage I can find is his fight vs Lighty.
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  15. 06-23-11 09:36 PM #15
    NickBaragona
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    I hope I'm not making a mistake in betting on Larkin. I was very impressed with his standup his last fight. I don't remember if he displayed any TDD though?
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  16. 06-23-11 09:40 PM #16
    NickBaragona
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    I only have enough points to bet on either Jason High or Ryan Couture. Which one? Or I could split it up, and take both straight up.
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  17. 06-23-11 09:55 PM #17
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickBaragona View Post
    I hope I'm not making a mistake in betting on Larkin. I was very impressed with his standup his last fight. I don't remember if he displayed any TDD though?
    Lighty went for one sloppy takedown when he was gassed and hurt which larken easily stuffed, so that didn't really show us much. Can anyone find vids of his other fights?
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  18. 06-23-11 10:24 PM #18
    DR225
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    I'm on Larkin HUGE. I think that even though he won't have great tdd technique yet, his sheer athleticism will be enough for now. This guy will be a big name after a couple more fights and he'll eventually become a champion imo.
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  19. 06-24-11 12:53 AM #19
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by DR225 View Post
    I'm on Larkin HUGE. I think that even though he won't have great tdd technique yet, his sheer athleticism will be enough for now. This guy will be a big name after a couple more fights and he'll eventually become a champion imo.
    You think he will be a champion one day after only seeing one fight?
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  20. 06-24-11 02:09 AM #20
    DR225
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    Quote Originally Posted by bogbat View Post
    You think he will be a champion one day after only seeing one fight?
    I've seen three of his fights, the prior two and his fight with Assis. The guy is only 24 and has displayed a level of striking that far precedes his age. This fight will be a test for him and if he can keep it standing (which I think he can), he'll no doubt win. His career will be intertwined with his tdd and if he can keep fights standing against top competition, not many will outstrike him. btw, I was referring to him someday becoming the strikeforce champion, not as lofty a goal as the ufc equivalent.
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  21. 06-24-11 02:55 AM #21
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by DR225 View Post
    I've seen three of his fights, the prior two and his fight with Assis. The guy is only 24 and has displayed a level of striking that far precedes his age. This fight will be a test for him and if he can keep it standing (which I think he can), he'll no doubt win. His career will be intertwined with his tdd and if he can keep fights standing against top competition, not many will outstrike him. btw, I was referring to him someday becoming the strikeforce champion, not as lofty a goal as the ufc equivalent.
    Well it is very likely that Strikeforce will be absorbed into the UFC once their contract with Showtime runs out.

    I'm interested in seeing more fights of his, so please post if anyone can dig up anymore footage. He looks like a completely different fighter from that 2009 video that was posted.
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  22. 06-24-11 03:31 AM #22
    Jesus Christ
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    Best bet on the card IMO is Quin Mulhern...guy has a nasty rubber guard and some decent striking...Jason High simply put is not at a high level in any facet of fighting..if this hits the mat whether high is on top or not Mulhern is gonna have a huge advantage...on the feet High may have a slight advantage but High has a pattern of getting hit.

    I'll be risking 1.5 units to win roughly 3.3 units
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  23. 06-24-11 08:10 AM #23
    rocky mattioli
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ View Post
    Best bet on the card IMO is Quin Mulhern...guy has a nasty rubber guard and some decent striking...Jason High simply put is not at a high level in any facet of fighting..if this hits the mat whether high is on top or not Mulhern is gonna have a huge advantage...on the feet High may have a slight advantage but High has a pattern of getting hit.

    I'll be risking 1.5 units to win roughly 3.3 units

    i was looking at this...until i read that mike "the joker" guymon completely dominated mulhern for 4 rounds in their match until he finally g&p`ed mulhern into a tap out in the 4th....

    not crazy about guymon...but g.l....the odds are certainly tempting.....
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  24. 06-24-11 10:48 AM #24
    Educ8d Degener8
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    I do remember Mulhern beating Rich Clementi at a KOtC event that aired on HDNet some time back... but then again, who hasn't beat Rich Clementi lately...

    And for f*ck's sake -- those Bellator odds are laaaaaaaaarge. Anybody got a scoop on Jacob Devree? I was hardly impressed with Malegarie in his Bellator debut... though Straus is a huuuuuge at FW.
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  25. 06-24-11 10:53 AM #25
    sirchadwick1
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    The Bellator odds would reflect that these guys are fighting scrubs or something. I don't know any of the fighters outside Sandro, Curran, and Mann... but would like to hear more input on the underdogs here. I will doubtfully be betting since there are unknowns, but anyone think there are live dogs?
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  26. 06-24-11 10:56 AM #26
    illmatick
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    I think Adam Schidler is semi-live. He might be able to wrestle a decision away.

    I played him small at +275.
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  27. 06-24-11 12:18 PM #27
    Thewiseman
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    Schindler .21u to win .5u
    Devree .15u to win .5u
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  28. 06-24-11 02:25 PM #28
    sirchadwick1
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    Free $ on the Devree/Malegarie fight.
    Bodog has Devree at +400
    5dimes has Malegarie at -325

    I'm on it.
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  29. 06-24-11 02:48 PM #29
    bogbat
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    I'm on Gian Villante small. Wasn't able to find much on Lorenz Larkin but from all reports he is a one dimensional striker. Villante isn't a bad striker himself and has a significant wrestling advantage.
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  30. 06-24-11 04:49 PM #30
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Gian didn't exactly show any of that wrestling base against Griggs... save for a weeeeeak double leg against the cage.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVOuGdo8BgA

    Both Gian and Lorenz fought Mike Cook within about a 1 year span for those of you who believe in mma math. No footage of the Cook-Larkin fight that I can find... and in the little footage of Cook-Gian, again, no evidence to be found of Villante's wrestling.
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  31. 06-24-11 04:57 PM #31
    illmatick
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    Quote Originally Posted by illmatick View Post
    I think Adam Schidler is semi-live. He might be able to wrestle a decision away. I played him small at +275.
    Quote Originally Posted by Thewiseman View Post
    Schindler .21u to win .5u Devree .15u to win .5u
    Looks like we're not the only ones who like Schidler. He's getting heavily steamed across the board.

    5dimes from +270 to +220 and Pinnacle down to +235 after opening at +250.

    What do you know about Devree? looks like he's getting steamed as well.
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  32. 06-24-11 06:44 PM #32
    Jesus Christ
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    My final bets for this evening


    Quinn Mulhern -1.5 units to win aprrox 3.3 units

    Gian Villante- 2.2 units to win 2 units

    Enjoy
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  33. 06-24-11 08:08 PM #33
    NickBaragona
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    What do you guys think of a small parlay consisting of High/Larkins/Couture? The payout is triple the wager.
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  34. 06-24-11 10:19 PM #34
    spurginobili
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    Took Budd to start it off. She looks good so far.
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  35. 06-24-11 10:29 PM #35
    JuicedUp
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    Budd should get the DEC. 29-28
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