[sirchadwick1]

I know there are a lot of knowledgeable guys here, but there are also casual bettors and noobs who could use a few pointers as to how to go about betting to make profit. It's very easy to get caught up in this game and bet with you heart or on a whim and you can end up going broke very quickly. I know first hand as when I first started betting 2 years ago and went belly up (luckily only losing a couple hundred) 2 times in 3 months. Now, I've educated myself and taken the time to make more calculated bets and it's slowly but surely paying off.

• Start slow and make small bets to build experience and confidence. Everyone wants to be that guy that hit the 12-team parlay to make $50k, but the nature of the game is that you most likely won't.
• Watch as many fights as you possibly can, study fighters key attributes/weaknesses. If you plan on betting on a particular fighter follow their Twitter account if they have one to keep up (even if you hate Twitter).
• Calculate what you think a fight line should be in your head before the lines are released. If you see value when the lines hit, make the play - many times the earlier the better.
• Stay away from heavy favorites (high juice fighters) on individual plays. Usually you're overpaying (eg. Mendes at -625) and this is a recipe to lose your money fast in the event an upset happens. I generally do not bet on any favorite over -300.
• Consistently betting on underdogs (live dogs) with good lines is a solid way to make profit in the long run. Sure you may lose 3 out of 5 picks... but your bankroll can still increase with those 2 dog wins.
• Never solely look at fighters paper records to determine an outcome (factor in recent performances, training camps, changing weight classes, weigh-ins, level of competition, etc.)
• Sign up for multiple books and shop for the best lines. Bodog is generally the worst for favorites, but can sometimes be the best for underdogs.
• Look for arbitrage (scalp)/free $ opportunities among multiple books (For instance Kongo opened at -115 at bodog, then shortly after Barry hit +170 at 5dimes. If you bet $100 on Kongo at -115 and $69.24 on Barry at +170 you make $17.71 regardless. May not sound like much... but over time it adds up).
• Only bet on fighters that you are familiar with. Never bet on every fight on the card.
• Never Never Never go ALL IN on one fight in MMA (fighters have 'off' nights and lucky punches do happen)
• Never call any fighter a lock with pure confidence (but saying "close" to a lock is OK)
• Become a Pro here at SBR and use your points to buy Sportsbook cash (I've added $200 to my 5dimes acct) in about a year
• Parlays are very tempting because of the reduced juice, but don't go crazy with them. Stick to 2 or 3 man parlays at best and only play them occasionally when you feel the most confident (eg. Anderson + GSP + Aldo)
• Wrestlers are killing it in the cage right now. I've had a lot of success taking 1-dimensional wrestlers over multi-talented BJJ guys w/ solid standup b/c they control the fight and most have great cardio. I highly advise staying away from betting against wrestlers unless you see a clear path to victory for their opponent.
• Sign up for email notifications at bestfightodds.com for new lines (good way to get a heads up and solid value)
• Never fade Vaughany (this dude knows his MMA).

I am just posting this to help you guys out. I know some of you may disagree with my tips and that's fine... but please debate respectfully with good reasoning. Also feel free to post your own tips in this thread! We're a small community, but growing fast everyday and this is like my home away from home. SBR rocks!

[bjpenn85]

good post. Its all true.

[NunyaBidness]

[*] Look for arbitrage (scalp)/free $ opportunities among multiple books (For instance Kongo opened at -115 at bodog, then shortly after Barry hit +170 at 5dimes. If you bet $100 on Kongo at -115 and $69.24 on Barry at +170 you make $17.71 regardless. May not sound like much... but over time it adds up).

Arbitrage is generally a mistake, take it from someone who started off many years doing nothing but arbitrage. Risk free profits sound great, but if you're kelly betting or at least staying within your bankroll your profits will increase by allowing risk in.

You're better off to hit only the soft side, which can be determined by aggregating multiple books or understanding which books are square.

The other disadvantage to arbing is you're frequently making max bets and winning them, and get limited by books rather quickly. I'm now paying the price, I'm limited at every major US book, I would give anything to be able to make occasional max bets now, instead of wasting $1000 bets to earn $10 profit.

[sirchadwick1]

Thx.

Something else I'd like to add to this regarding scalps/arbs that I forgot to mention.

Many times a book will release lines early and "screw it up". For example you may see something like Jon Jones open against Rampage at +160 and think to yourself... omg, pound pound pound it! So you dump $500 on Bones, thinking you're the freakin man and are about to come up huge. Especially b/c you can easily hop on over at another book and dump $333 on Rampage at +290 (the correct line) and make guaranteed profit. THINK AGAIN.

When books F up, they usually catch it quickly and whatever bet you made will be NULL and VOID. They will cancel your bet and refund your money. But guess what.... ONLY on the book that you just threw $500 at on Bones Jones will cancel.

What that means is that the other $333 you blew on Rampage at another book is NOT getting canceled. So you just got yourself in a little trouble. It is very rare that a book will let you cancel this bet. Do not make this mistake.

You're much better off contacting the book and letting them know of their mistake. Sometimes they'll even thank you and offer you a free play if they're in a good mood. Don't try to take advantage of books... it doesn't work.

[sirchadwick1]

Thanks for the input Nunya. I agree with you on some points there. It can be a mistake unless you are sharp and know when to play them. I considered arbing on my Kongo bet at first b/c it was easy money. But I thought it over and think that was great value in Kongo at -115 and decided to stick with him straight up. I never really MAX out my bets and a large play for me is $100 (10u for me)... so thus far I have not been limited at my books.

[NickDiaz209]

Niga I hit dem 12 fight parlays in my sleep

[Chairib]

Never fade Vaughny? lol

[sirchadwick1]

Anymore input out there? C'mon I know some of you have knowledge to share.

[NickDiaz209]

never bet against nickdiaz

[Kaladarus]

Did you make this thread for someone in particular, but didn't want to make it obvious?

Lot of good points here.

[urge2kill]

speaking of bestfightodds, i can finally see the whole page on my phone

[snake11eyes]

Become a Pro here at SBR and use your points to buy Sportsbook cash (I've added $200 to my 5dimes acct) in about a year

I thought they took this option away.

speaking of bestfightodds, i can finally see the whole page on my phone

Thanks, I stopped going there on my phone because of that.

[Kaladarus]

I thought they took this option away.

For Americans only.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Great thread, Chadwick.

I agree 100% with everything you said, solid tips and I use all of them!

[omalley21]

Never bet against cain velasquez or jon jones.

[sirchadwick1]

Did you make this thread for someone in particular, but didn't want to make it obvious?

Lot of good points here.

No one in particular. Just had some thoughts flowing and needed to express them.

Never bet against cain velasquez or jon jones.

Agree w/ Bones Jones and normally would side w/ you on Cain... but I see JDS giving him a lot of problems.

For Americans only.

I'm American. I guess this is something new where no more US players can become PRO? That's news to me.... sucks too.

[NunyaBidness]

No one in particular. Just had some thoughts flowing and needed to express them.



Agree w/ Bones Jones and normally would side w/ you on Cain... but I see JDS giving him a lot of problems.



I'm American. I guess this is something new where no more US players can become PRO? That's news to me.... sucks too.

I believe they can still become Pro status, they just can't get sportsbook cash. have to trade points for pizza or something.

[sirchadwick1]

I believe they can still become Pro status, they just can't get sportsbook cash. have to trade points for pizza or something.

F me. I just noticed that they have a NO USA flag up now for all of the sportsbook cash. This is very depressing. I was so close to adding another $50.