1. 06-09-11 03:54 PM #1
    bogbat
    bogbat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-21-10
    Posts: 1,843
    Betpoints: 2292

    Your biggest lock for UFC 131?

    Disclaimer: No such thing as a lock

    Regardless of odds, what is your biggest lock for UFC 131?

    Mine is probably Dustin Poirier over Jason Young.

    It is Jason Young's with the promotion which often prompts a sympathetic system overload. On top of this it is his first time making the cut to 145 and we all know that the first cut to a lower weigh division can often create problems for them. Jason Young's take down defense looks ok for a brit but its hard to tell because most of the fights I've been able to find were against other brits.
    I wasn't able to find Young's fight vs Jorge Britto but I read that he was taken down a lot and in a recent interview with Jason Young he said that he was able to convince him to stand up with him after being on the floor together for a while. Jason Young does have fairly crisp stand up but I think Poirier will be able to get the take down when he needs to

    Dustin Poirier had a breakout performance vs Josh Grispi but a little luster was rubbed off when Roop beat just as convincingly and got a the finish. However, I see no reason to think Dustin Poirier won't win this bout without too much trouble. It's too much juice for a straight up bet but perfect for parlay fodder.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 06-09-11 04:01 PM #2
    RaiderNation MMA
    RaiderNation MMA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-05-10
    Posts: 598
    Betpoints: 2

    i read an article on young, says he is pretty decent. but anyways, im pretty sure jon olav is gonna win
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 06-09-11 04:02 PM #3
    kmdubya
    kmdubya's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-04-11
    Posts: 405
    Betpoints: 1306

    Soszynski. Massenzio is normally fighting at 185. Soszynski is strong like bull and tough. I don't think Massenzio has much of a chance in this one.

    I like Poirier as well, just haven't seen enough of him to make a lock judgement. I also can't see how Cerrone loses his fight at all.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 06-09-11 04:07 PM #4
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 06-09-11 04:09 PM #5
    bogbat
    bogbat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-21-10
    Posts: 1,843
    Betpoints: 2292

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!
    lol I'd be surprised but not mind blown if Mia KO'd Munoz
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 06-09-11 04:33 PM #6
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum And Bitcoin
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,983
    Betpoints: 1920

    I don't see any good locks for UFC 131. But I do see good locks on the next events.

    UFC Live: Cheick Kongo defeats Pat Barry.
    UFC 132: Melvin Guillard defeats Shane Roller.
    UFC 133: Vitor Belfort defeats Yoshihiro Akiyama.
    UFC 134: Anderson Silva defeats Yushin Okami.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 06-09-11 04:33 PM #7
    Dave--M
    Dave--M's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-14-11
    Posts: 73
    Betpoints: 66

    Joey beltran
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 06-09-11 04:36 PM #8
    urge2kill
    urge2kill's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-09
    Posts: 1,722
    Betpoints: 1531

    Cerrone. I think this is a showcase fight for him.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 06-09-11 05:16 PM #9
    snake11eyes
    snake11eyes's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-10
    Posts: 618
    Betpoints: 577

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!
    Im going to go ahead and call them locks. However the odds probably reflect that.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 06-09-11 05:18 PM #10
    snake11eyes
    snake11eyes's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-10
    Posts: 618
    Betpoints: 577

    Quote Originally Posted by urge2kill View Post
    Cerrone. I think this is a showcase fight for him.
    Yea I have to agree here. Still a high price, but this is almost as easy as Stephens vs Danny Boy last week.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 06-09-11 05:23 PM #11
    rocky mattioli
    rocky mattioli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-26-10
    Posts: 1,263
    Betpoints: 5100

    from what i`m reading,jason young isn`t ufc ready...but,i didn`t know who poirer was before the grispi fight...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 06-09-11 05:39 PM #12
    JuicedUp
    JuicedUp's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-20-10
    Posts: 3,396
    Betpoints: 6160



    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 06-09-11 05:49 PM #13
    NunyaBidness
    NunyaBidness has a posse
    NunyaBidness's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-26-09
    Posts: 9,345
    Betpoints: 4507

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave--M View Post
    Joey beltran
    I'm on Beltran huge. But he isn't a lock against anyone.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 06-09-11 05:54 PM #14
    stefan084
    stefan084's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-21-09
    Posts: 1,489
    Betpoints: 601

    why does everyone like Kongo so much? i was never impressed with him. what is it in this particular match up that makes him a good pick?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 06-09-11 05:56 PM #15
    phillybadboy
    phillybadboy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,383
    Betpoints: 3864

    mark munoz
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 06-09-11 06:14 PM #16
    Vrakas
    Vrakas's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-10
    Posts: 627
    Betpoints: 8912

    kongo is a lock.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 06-09-11 06:28 PM #17
    Kaladarus
    Kaladarus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-09
    Posts: 1,876
    Betpoints: 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Vrakas View Post
    kongo is a lock.
    That's got to be the best lock ever. There's no way Kongo loses at UFC 131.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 06-09-11 06:40 PM #18
    Educ8d Degener8
    Educ8d Degener8's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-10
    Posts: 3,177
    Betpoints: 9916

    Quote Originally Posted by stefan084 View Post
    why does everyone like Kongo so much? i was never impressed with him. what is it in this particular match up that makes him a good pick?
    It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

    I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

    But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

    Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 06-09-11 07:12 PM #19
    RealBets
    RealBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-24-10
    Posts: 60
    Betpoints: 66

    i like beltran over rosa. looks like easy money to me.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 06-09-11 07:36 PM #20
    Hannibal
    Hannibal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-11
    Posts: 1,055
    Betpoints: 15695

    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

    I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

    But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

    Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.
    For a guy that touted as a "devasting striker", Kongo quite the pussy. Stand and bang??..only when he fights someone that is little threat to him standing. You're more likely to see him conservatively throwing strikes from the outside, and looking for opportunities to clinch or takedown. ... and of course knee barry in the balls. **** they should have props on that. Kongo will knee him in the sack: -220 vs he wont: + 190 hahhaha
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 06-09-11 09:37 PM #21
    MMAbetMASTA
    MMAbetMASTA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-24-11
    Posts: 1,931
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by phillybadboy View Post
    mark munoz


    I don't have any 'locks' per se, but like this guy my largest play is on MUNOZ! WAR MUNOZ, BABY!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 06-09-11 09:39 PM #22
    MMAbetMASTA
    MMAbetMASTA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-24-11
    Posts: 1,931
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by RealBets View Post
    i like beltran over rosa. looks like easy money to me.
    I think beltran can win, but I wouldn't call this fight easy money by any means. Rosa has a great ground game and is competent on the feet (still give beltran a good edge tho on the feet), beltran best have some good tdd...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 06-09-11 10:41 PM #23
    Jordan23
    Jordan23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-10
    Posts: 1,227
    Betpoints: 283

    Quote Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA View Post
    I think beltran can win, but I wouldn't call this fight easy money by any means. Rosa has a great ground game and is competent on the feet (still give beltran a good edge tho on the feet), beltran best have some good tdd...
    Beltran's wrestling is underrated. I do give Beltran the advantage on the feet. I have a feeling he wins this fight on toughness.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 06-09-11 11:27 PM #24
    Camdemonium
    Camdemonium's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-02-11
    Posts: 126
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

    I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

    But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

    Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.
    One thing we hear a lot is that it is much easier to learn counter-wrestling than wrestling and submission-defense vs submission offense. I haven't heard that Barry was training specifically wrestling defense but if I was him I would be. I guess all I'm saying is keep an open mind. Think GSot-Siver. That fight cost me a lot of money because there was NO WAY Siver could keep the fight standing...

    That being said Kongo's stand up is light years ahead of Sotiropolous's.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 06-09-11 11:36 PM #25
    borderline
    borderline's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-09-11
    Posts: 6
    Betpoints: 0

    munoz has to be one of the best plays on the card. his stand up has gotten drastically better since he started training with a silva and black house. with the better wrestling i dont see how maia will even think about submitting him
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 06-09-11 11:53 PM #26
    shari91
    shari91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-23-10
    Posts: 32,661
    Betpoints: 1689

    Thanks for the info in here guys

    One of the Aussie books I play with is offering a 100% winning bonus up to $150 for a bet placed on 131. I'm trying to come up with the best way to try to recover a bit of my losses last weekend so your posts in here are helping me out. GL to you all
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 06-09-11 11:56 PM #27
    goblinburner
    yanks-1 1/2
    goblinburner's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 621
    Betpoints: 0

    dameon mia and junior dos santos are locks
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 06-10-11 12:05 AM #28
    borderline
    borderline's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-09-11
    Posts: 6
    Betpoints: 0

    really like dos santos a lot as well, dude is a little lighter than carwin but his stand up is a lot crisper and accurate. there are rumors around that carwin has trimmed up and wouldnt be able to use his weight to push up against the cage like he did against mir and gonzaga.

    loving dos santos
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 06-10-11 05:57 AM #29
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Quote Originally Posted by borderline View Post
    really like dos santos a lot as well, dude is a little lighter than carwin but his stand up is a lot crisper and accurate. there are rumors around that carwin has trimmed up and wouldnt be able to use his weight to push up against the cage like he did against mir and gonzaga.

    loving dos santos
    Not really rumours, pretty clear tht he's lost 20 to 25lbs as he's said it and you can see him in countless interviews and countdowns!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 06-10-11 06:10 AM #30
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    It's probably not so much people liking Kongo as it is people fading Barry...

    I would fade the sh*t out of Barry if he were facing a well rounded opponent, as he's displayed that if the fight is not standing, he's worthless.

    But Kongo doesn't exactly exhibit high fighter IQ, so he'll probably end up standing and banging with Barry and wind up needing serious dental work... though he should try to clinch up and get it to the ground with some gnp...

    Or he'll just repeatedly kick Pat in the nuts.
    You're right that it is more about fading Barry than anything else. Barry is a cool and likeable dude but his MMA is limited. Many think he is an amazing striker because of his leg kicks, but he certainly isnt K1 level. He doesnt throw many combos - mostly just looks for the leg kick on its own, think the Hardonk fight is the only one where I've seen him throw punches in bunches followed by kicks. In comparison to somebody like GOkhan Saki, Barry's striking is limited. He also lacks footwork and head movement which makes him easy to hit. We all know tht his wrestling and BJJ is also raw - add the fact that he doesnt take his diet seriously, has admitted he doesn't like getting hit, and that Kongo is pretty much in a must-win situation if he wants to stay relevant in the division and things don't bode too well against a big strong dude in Kongo who has been 3 rounds many times before against better competition.

    With regards to Kongo not having high fighter IQ, I'd say it's quite the opposite. Many people dislike KOngo and call him a "pussy" because he doesnt stand and bang and took down likes of Evensen, Hardonk, Buentello, Al-Turk etc... Surely this would mean that he does fight smart as he takes the fight to where he has the greatest advantage??

    Not many people realise that Kongo started doing greco-roman wrestling at a young age and that although his defensive wrestling isnt great, his ability to get somebody like Barry to the ground is without question.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 06-10-11 06:56 AM #31
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    Fading Barry is correct and now is the best time to do it. I seriously question Barry's mental toughness in the Octagon. It seems if he gets taken out of his element (off his feet) that he checks out. You could see it on his face how frustrated he was against CC. It was almost as though he just gave the fight away and had no answer.

    Listen, I absolutely love Barry's personality and think he would be cool as hell to hang out with, etc. But as far as a mid-tier UFC HW, he's about to hit a wall. I hope he decides to get serious about his diet and training and goes down to LHW after this one.

    If Kongo doesn't get Barry down in this fight and pound him out or at the very least get a UD I'll be very surprised.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 06-10-11 07:22 AM #32
    NickBaragona
    NickBaragona's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 555
    Betpoints: 120

    Donald Cerrone and Dave Herman.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 06-10-11 08:41 AM #33
    Straight Cash
    Straight Cash's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-09
    Posts: 2,202
    Betpoints: 43

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    My lock is "Not Munoz by submission" or "Not Maia by KO"!
    haha both of these would be pretty wild, but you never know with MMA!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 06-10-11 08:56 AM #34
    rocky mattioli
    rocky mattioli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-26-10
    Posts: 1,263
    Betpoints: 5100

    v and sir chadwick....well said...i`m no kongo fan.....but barry is so limited...i don`t like his cardio...he`s smallish(short)...and way to economical with his offense.....

    the only fight of his that i`ve seen that i was impressed with was hardonk and my god,hardonk was a lower mid-level ufc fighter...he was 8-6....and never beat a legit fighter..he looked the part...but that was it...

    been looking to fade barry...he`s a mental case...the fact that he couldn`t handle crocop at this point in his career was an absolute embarrassment..this is the same crocop that was manhandled by kongo 3 years earlier...

    the only thing that worries me here is barry`s guardian angel(who i`m sure was actively involved in the beltran eye gouge)......
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 06-10-11 09:42 AM #35
    DDT
    Head Mod In Charge
    DDT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-09
    Posts: 3,757
    Betpoints: 2338

    I'm really liking Florian winning
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Boxing, MMA & UFC Betting | Next Thread »