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Which of these MMA outcomes is the best to bet on?
Bellator 45: Patricio Freire to defeat Daniel Straus.
UFC 130: Travis Browne to defeat Stefan Struve.
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Pettis to defeat Clay Guida.
UFC 132: Urijah Faber to defeat Dominick Cruz.
UFC 132: Dennis Siver to defeat Matt Wiman.
I'm trying to find a fight that is most likely to win with good value.
1.browne over struve. (KO power over weak chin/prone to take punches)
2.anthony pettis over clay (overall better fighter, athletic, striker, subdefense/offense)
3.wiman over siver (wrestling/submissions in combination to insane cardio vs bad cardio)
5.strauss vs freire 50 50, no opinion, to even it seems
4. urijah will probably loose to a more fluid fighter in cruz. cruz is better in all areas in a fight except subgame than faber.
Browne over Struve is the best bet... however the lines have shifted now and Struve is at +120.
Wiman over Siver is probably next in line, followed by Straus over Freire.
The only problem is that the underdog value is gone right now. These guys opened up as solid dogs and you may need to wait a little closer to fight night to see good numbers on them again, if at all.
Here are the plays I made and they're current lines for reference
5u on Browne (+130)---- now at (-140)
3u on Wiiman (+130)---- now at (+115)
2u on Straus (+160), 1u (+155)---- now at (+110)
1u on Faber (+160)---- now at (+100)
The next best thing will be to bet the most likely outcome. All of them by decision (-browne)
browne for sure.
i am picking pettis and freire, but straus and guida are live.
i think siver will beat wiman, and i am actually pretty confident that cruz is going to outbox faber.
Originally Posted by sirchadwick1
Also, I'll be betting on Pettis if he's close to even money. Guida has legitimately improved, but I think Pettis is too active and threatening in every area.
i think the cruz fight will resemble the way cruz vs jorgensen went down. I cant se faber take cruz down, rather the other way, or submitt him. And i definitely dont think faber can strike with cruz. He couldnt even strike with him even in the first matchup. It was just a sloppy and inexperienced error to fall in fabers choke.
Ladle, siver over wiman? How?
Ladle isnt pickin Siver!?
Pettis/Guida to decision
Browne
Wiman
Yeah, I'm picking Wiman too. Have money on him at +135.Ladle isnt pickin Siver!?
sorry, i looked at v1y
Ok, I'll bet on the Browne fight and the Pettis fight.
Cruz's winning record is intimidating.
It's possible that it could be a trap to bet on Faber, Faber beat Cruz in the Featherweight division, the Bantaweight division could give the edge to Cruz.
Siver stayed in it for 3 rounds against Sotiropoulos as a heavy underdog. Which is why I think Siver could defeat Wiman. This is a probably lousy reason. Which is why I am convinced with everyone's Wiman pick. I'm skipping on this fight.
Last edited by GunShard; 05-19-11 at 11:46 PM.
This would be a horrible reason to bet on cruz.
Cruz has simply improved leaps and bounds since the original fight, specifically in regards to his boxing. Faber can't take him down, and cruz will outland him all day.
Yep Cruz is a complete different fighter now. The only way I can see Faber winning is if he can lock up one of his famous guiltiness off a take down.
Sotiropolous and Wiman couldn't be any more different in their styles. Wiman is wild, relentless, more powerful, much better cardio and has wrestling ability. Sotiroplous has limited power, limited wrestling, average cardio!
If i was a teenage girl with no sense for political view points/ religious/post fight commentaries i would def have a poster of Wiman and rub my pussy against the poster hanging on the wall every night. The man is ******* aaaaawsome.
Could wiman make a title run? I actually think his heart is that big.
haha I have to agree that his awkward post fight bumbling mumblings are the only thing that let's him down!
Like pettis and maybe wiman over siver.
Wiman has a better chin too.Sotiropolous and Wiman couldn't be any more different in their styles. Wiman is wild, relentless, more powerful, much better cardio and has wrestling ability. Sotiroplous has limited power, limited wrestling, average cardio!
Sotiropoulos has been dropped like a sack of spuds on more than one occasion.
ah yes how could I forget tht!Wiman has a better chin too.
Sotiropoulos has been dropped like a sack of spuds on more than one occasion.
I like Siver coming up.
I like siver and pettis as well. I think the siver wiman fight will be close fight though.
browne will be a little too much for the skyscrapper.
Bellator 45: Patricio Freire to defeat Daniel Straus.
I got this one right.
As far as I know Freire trains with Black House fighters.
UFC 130: Travis Browne to defeat Stefan Struve.
I got 2 out of 5 correct so far.
Anthony Pettis loses to Clay Guida
Fortunately, I only bet betpoints on this fight.
It was too close to call, which was the correct move to not bet money.
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