[tabarnak]

Frank Mir by tko

[Camdemonium]

nelson stand up looked alright against jds, i really think he will beat mir. plus roy putt him in a grappling match if i not mistaken

Which part of his stand up looked alright? The part where he got hit with BOMBS for 15 min or the part where he never put Dos Santos in jeopardy? The only thing I learned from that fight is that Roy Nelson has a head full of sand.

Another thing I saw that made me laugh...

"I’m a lot bigger than Dos Santos and I hit a lot harder." - Frank Mir

http://www.cagedinsider.com/ufc/figh...-a-lot-harder/

[Al0n3']

Which part of his stand up looked alright? The part where he got hit with BOMBS for 15 min or the part where he never put Dos Santos in jeopardy? The only thing I learned from that fight is that Roy Nelson has a head full of sand.

Another thing I saw that made me laugh...

"I’m a lot bigger than Dos Santos and I hit a lot harder." - Frank Mir

http://www.cagedinsider.com/ufc/figh...-a-lot-harder/

he's daydreaming if he thinks that he hits stronger than JDS!!! thats for sure!

[thesox0311]

I would actually say he does hit harder than JDS, he just doesnt have the same skill or technique. Mir is all over the place, but he can throw some bombs. Im not saying he punches as hard as Carwin, but he has some heavy hands. I think Mir will actually control this fight, and although boring will win this by UD.

[Vaughany]

Mir clearly hasn't seen that footage of Dos Santos hitting the mitts before the Werdum fight!!

[Jordan23]

I just really want Roy to win. But I'm torn on this fight. I feel it could really go either way

[LayingThe$Down]

What's great about toss-up fights like Mir/Roy is that you don't have to be 100% certain to make a +ev play. Hell, if you analyze 65% of these kind of coin-flip fights accurately, that will be profitable in the long run for you.

I have thought about this fight, and watched video, and here is what I think. I will start with some basic facts, pointing out important data, then I will finish with my opinion of who wins and why.

BJJ: both guys have a base in BJJ, both legit black belts, and thus are extensively trained in the ground arts. Both guys have also historically preferred to work a safe ground game when possible and get on top, and put their efforts into submissions (when confronted with superior strikers). imo, their BJJ skills are very similar, and I cannot give an edge to either guy. Both have demonstrated sufficient knowledge on the ground offensively, that in 3 short 5-minute rounds it will be damned difficult for either guy to submit the other without first hurting their opponent.

Wrestling: Mir wrestled in high school, and did well. I don't see evidence Mir has translated this wrestling ability to MMA very well, though. Roy has developed and adapted his wrestling skills to MMA with decent results. I believe the wrestling is relatively equal enough that neither guy will be able dominate the other in this category. In wrestling during an MMA match, one must have superior skills to out-wrestle the other, because if the gap in skills is not wide, it is easily stale-mated with neither getting a clear advantage. Watching their fights, I feel Roy may be better in the clinch. He strikes a bit better in this position than Mir, and here Roy prevents his opponents from damaging him a bit more efficiently. However, this is not an easy comparison to make, as the video evidence is not extensive enough to make a firm diagnosis. With all that said, I think their wrestling skills are equal enough both guys will struggle to gain an edge here.

Striking: both guys have improved their striking from where it was a few years ago. Frank has developed footwork, distance utilization, and power he lacked in the past. His hard work on his striking has paid off. Same with Roy. While his footwork is not quite as sharp, it's close, but Roy packs a bit more power imo. His right hand is accurate and he now puts his body into it a bit better than before and this combination has given him some nice KO's recently (Struve and Schaub). Frank used his right hand with much the same skill against Kongo. These guys are good at leaning in on you, faking the takedown, then catching you with their right hands as their opponents either drop their hands to defend the TD or glance downward (again see Frank and Kongo). Their striking is quite similar in this regard, although I feel Roy has a bit more power, Mir has better combos (utilizes his jabs slightly better to be more specific).

Chin: Roy has the better chin, without a doubt. Roy blew his knee out in the first round against dos Santos (had surgery immediately after the fight). This injury left him vulnerable, and he took a huge amount of damaging blows from a 25-year old devastating striker and never went out. He showed quick recovery, knew how to cover and protect himself when hurt, and threw nice counters at times to keep JDS off him at key moments in that fight. imo, this clearly demonstrated how much of a true pro Roy has developed into. Even though he lost, he showed amazing resilience in that fight. On the other hand, Mir has not shown these kind of abilitites after being hurt. Quite the contrary. If he is hurt, Frank is almost always finished, and rarely stages a comeback. He simply has not demonstrated the survival ability Roy has shown. Frank's chin is not the granite that Roy's is composed of.

Cardio: Roy, despite his belly, doesn't typically tire much over the course of a fight. He slowed down in the JDS fight a bit as it went on, they both did, but for different reasons. JDS because he threw so many power shots, and Roy because he ate those power shots. Taking punches robs you of stamina, as it affects your central nervous system. Because Roy's fights tend to not go the distance, there is not much evidence of his stamina, but his last fight can be used as a good measurement imo. Remember, at the end of the JDS fight, Roy was still in the pocket returning punches. On the other hand, Mir historically has shown poor stamina at times. Recently, he has shown improvement, though, which leads me to suspect his poor stamina in past fights was possibly related to returning from the motorcycle accident too early and a lack of motivation at times (think Wes Simms). However, since 2006 only his Mirko fight has gone into the 3rd round, so the evidence is somewhat lacking to make a solid determination regarding how improved Mir's cardio really is today. All things considered, I feel Roy has definitively shown he can take great damage from a top contender and still be there throwing strikes at the end. I doubt Mir has this capability. Mir's cardio is a legit question mark, and I have to give Roy the advantage here. When both are pushed hard, I would bet Roy retains more energy and stamina than Mir will.

Opponents: This is a bit tricky to compare. Mir's opponents in the last 3 years: Mirko, Carwin (lost), Kongo, Brock (lost), Big Nog, Brock. Roy's opponents in the last 3 years: dos Santos (lost), Struve, Schaub, Monson (lost, although this fight result was controversial), Arlovski (lost), Brad Imes, Scherner. With Mir, other than Brock, his opponents were either 35 or close to it. Of his wins, Mirko is washed up, an old Big Nog had injuries and a staph infection, Kongo is 35, and Brock was green when he beat him. On the other hand, Roy's victories were against a young Struve who has not beaten any top competition, a young and green Schaub, and inferior fighters in Imes and Scherner. They both have losses to contenders, but not wins. What does this tell us? Well, in the last 2 years 4 of Roys wins have come by way of KO punches, and 1 of Mir's wins were by KO. Roy fought and KO'd 2 young guys in the last 2 years, whereas Mir's KO was over an old Mirko. Both their records have holes and lack big wins over contenders, but Roy has shown more KO power against younger opponents recently.

Other facts to consider: Roy has lost by KO once, while Mir has lost by KO 5 times. Mir will have been out 8 months by fight time, Roy was out 10 months. Roy is coming off a knee injury and surgery. Roy is almost 35, and Mir is almost 32.

My analysis: facts stand alone and help in evaluating one thing: how each guy measures against the other. Given what I believe, the fight will go like this: the first round will be close, with the bout alternating between clinching against the cage and either dirty boxing or actively working to take each other down, and striking in the middle of the cage. They will force each other to work, as their skills and bases are very similar, and I expect them to be pushing each other against the cage often. The first round may be close.

In the second, I think will Roy will begin to gain the momentum. Mir will fade a bit under the exertion and Roy's strikes. Again, much of the action will be in the clinch with both working dirty boxing and takedown attempts, and some striking in the center. Roy will win the round.

In the third, Roy does even better, and I would not be shocked by either a stoppage here or a decision win for Roy. I think Roy will out-work Mir and get stronger punches in. I feel Roy will better absorb Mir's punches than Mir will absorb Roy's strikes. Because of the small gap in their wrestling skills, I don't expect either guy to out-wrestle the other, but I think Roy's stockiness and great use of his weight will make it harder for Mir to take him down than vice versa. I feel if someone does get the takedown, it will be Roy. I think the clinch favors Roy, too.

I just feel the fight will be won by Roy's superior power and because of Mir's weaker chin. Given all this, I expect Roy to win this fight, and will be betting him accordingly. I tend to avoid betting big on guys coming off serious injuries, this is my only real caution to you. Consider that carefully. In this instance, though, I feel Roy has good advantages and the odds are attractive enough to over-ride this concern.

My plays for this card are Browne, Roy, a bet on Alves, and if I can get Boetsch at good odds will take him, too. This is a lot of bets for me on one card, but my big plays are Roy and Browne, with smaller bets on Alves and Boetsch (possibly will bet him, only at + money though. Grove won't be able to take him down, and grove's chin is weak imo). I suspect Johnson may beat Miguel, but I have done no work yet on this fight at all.

Good luck, fellas.

[bjpenn85]

Very good. Talking about the clinch. I havent looked into this fight as closely as you have, but the clinch is concerning me with picking roy. Shaub which is a quite strong fighter won slightly the battle that was found up against the cage against cro cop. Mir seemed to have no problem with cro cop, locking him up against the cage. This leads me to think that frank mir is very strong. Can he steal two rounds against roy? I dont know. You wrote that you saw the clinch favoring roy, on what grounds?

Thank you again, i really appreciate this type of posts. I do think roy may win this fight morally. My concern is the judges if this goes three rounds. I cant take the mental breakdown of a close split decision that doesnt go my way.

[sag3000]

I'm getting this fight to go over 2,5 at +110 and will play that instead of sides. I think there is no clear mismatch in the styles between the two and can see this go to a decision and the judges can score this either way as seen in other fights. BOL

[Camdemonium]

LayingThe$Down - I liked your analysis a lot, thanks so much for posting it. Good read.

[Al0n3']

nice anyalysis, in my opinion its prty accurate .. and hope it goes down as you said it!! would loveeeee some $$

[sirchadwick1]

Definitely a great analysis LT$D! I pretty much agree with you on all aspects... just have a gut feeling that Roy does enough to get the W, but doesn't finish Mir.

[Ladle]

I agree that the value is with Nelson at the current odds. Just a few thoughts:

Their striking is quite similar in this regard, although I feel Roy has a bit more power, Mir has better combos (utilizes his jabs slightly better to be more specific).

Mir's striking is pretty prosaic; too much reliance on the left straight and lead uppercut combo. Makes him easy pickings for Nelson's overhand right.

If he is hurt, Frank is almost always finished, and rarely stages a comeback.

Important point. I think if Nelson can land even a few significant strikes early, we might see a familiar Mir - the one that's been stopped via strikes in all his career losses - crop up again. It's worth noting that, with the exception of the Lesnar fight, Mir has never come back from any kind of adversity. Even then, it's not as if Lesnar landed an absolutely awesome punch and was blasting him on the ground. He basically knocked him off balance then slapped him fifty times.

Frank's chin is not the granite that Roy's is composed of.

I'm still uncertain about just how good Nelson's chin is. It looked otherworldly against dos Santos, but it didn't hold up well in the Arlovski fight.

Mir's cardio is a legit question mark

Indeed. Beating up a shopworn Nogueira and sparring with Mirko for two and half rounds weren't exactly staunch tests of his conditioning.

Both their records have holes and lack big wins over contenders, but Roy has shown more KO power against younger opponents recently.

Based on that, I agree that Nelson's recent record has been more impressive. As for Mir, in three years, he's 4-2. He beat a 1-0 Lesnar, a gatekeeper Kongo, a waning Mirko and a plodding Nogueira. He was blown away by Lesnar in the rematch, and totally clobbered by Carwin. The only reason he's a consensus top-10 heavyweight is because no one else has a resume to surpass him.

[jin2daj]

is mir's standup that much worse than arlovski?

this fight pretty answers where mir fits into heavyweight division and i really hope he comes out ahead.

[Ladle]

is mir's standup that much worse than arlovski?

Offensively, Mir is less technical, more predictable and has slower hand speed. Defensively, they're both pretty porous.

[jacktheknife]

Which part of his stand up looked alright? The part where he got hit with BOMBS for 15 min or the part where he never put Dos Santos in jeopardy? The only thing I learned from that fight is that Roy Nelson has a head full of sand.

Another thing I saw that made me laugh...

"I’m a lot bigger than Dos Santos and I hit a lot harder." - Frank Mir

I laughed when i saw this post. Something about freshmen fans thinking they're making a point.

MIr has a bigger reach then JDS, and he tends to walk in at least 15 pounds heavier. Whereas Dos Santos usually hurts guys and turtles them into a stoppage, Frank has a karate base that's lended to him dropping people in his last 3 wins.

As for the part where Roy looked alright, I'd say it would be the part where he lasted longer and landed more shots on Junior then the half dozen people before him.

Not huge points, but nothing against them to spike the ball on a guy for, either.

[Ladle]

Whereas Dos Santos usually hurts guys and turtles them into a stoppage, Frank has a karate base that's lended to him dropping people in his last 3 wins.

What's your point? JDS has dropped five of his last six opponents, and finished four of them.

[RaiderNation MMA]

likening roy alot here!

[jacktheknife]

What's your point? JDS has dropped five of his last six opponents, and finished four of them.

Only that the notion that Frank hits harder might not be Sonnen speak.

[FindTheLock]

I think nelson, as fat as he is, outclasses Mir with sheer heart. I like Nelson to win this fight, but I don't know if he will be able to get a stoppage. Mir should retire after losing to Big Country. Big Country isn't going to take the belt away from anybody, but at least he goes out there and puts on awesome fights for the fans. Mir vs. Cro Cop was like watching a nascar event. They kept circling left until they hypnotized me into a deep sleep.

[LayingThe$Down]

Very good. Talking about the clinch. I havent looked into this fight as closely as you have, but the clinch is concerning me with picking roy. Shaub which is a quite strong fighter won slightly the battle that was found up against the cage against cro cop. Mir seemed to have no problem with cro cop, locking him up against the cage. This leads me to think that frank mir is very strong. Can he steal two rounds against roy? I dont know. You wrote that you saw the clinch favoring roy, on what grounds?

A good and valid question. Here is why I feel Roy will have an edge in the clinch:

First, Mirko was 36 when he fought Mir, and has been in something like 70 fights (including amateur, K-1, and MMA). He has had some serious injuries to his knees in recent years, and has suffered some very hard knockouts and damage in this long career.

When he fought Mir, Mirko was a shadow of the fighter he used to be. Actually, imo he has been slow and washed up for years now. I am not trying to take the victory away from Mir, it's just that to me it's a very important point that Mirko's body and mind are very weak in comparison to the Mirko we knew in the Pride days.

Remember, Pat Barry knocked Mirko on his ass twice before he broke both his hand and foot in that fight. I think it's safe to say if Barry didn't suffer those injuries, he would have kicked Mirko's ass. Other than fight, in the last 4 years Mirko has defeated a 39-year-old Perosh, Mostapha al-Turk who last won a fight in 2008, and Hong man Choi.

As a result of these facts, simply because Mir could hold Mirko against the cage (while doing almost no damage) does not impress me. I cannot use this example as a valid determination that Mir's clinch is strong and effective.

When Mir lost to carwin, Mir seemed frozen in the clinch. He seemed unable to do anything at all. He couldn't move, he couldn't throw strikes, he couldn't even react to Carwin's uppercuts at all.

That is about the extent of the video evidence we have of Mir's clinch ability, and I admit it is lacking. But it tells me one thing for sure: the clinch is not a position Frank goes to readily, nor does he have much experience in the clinch during fights.

Let's look at Big Country for a moment. In the few times Roy pushed dos Santos against the cage, he protected himself. He was able to reach down and attempt takedowns, even with a blown knee (though unsuccessful). In the Schaub fight, Brendan fought off the first takedown, but then Roy clinched, backed him up, and forced him down from the clinch. Against Monson, it was a back-and-forth war with Roy holding his own in the grappling (which is Monson's strength).

In the Arlovski fight, Roy closed the distance immediately and pushed him against the fence. Arlovski goes for a trip, they hit the ground, but Roy turns it in mid-air and ends up on top. Roy works from top position until 2:22, actively working for a kimura from side control, and at this point the now-infamous stand-up occurs (one of the worst I have ever seen). Roy quickly clinches Arlovski again, and for the next minute he holds Arlovski against the cage while he tries to get the takedown. With 1 minute left, they are separated. The round ends with Roy again pushing Arlovski to the fence, holding him there, and working for the takedown.

Round 2 starts, and 30 seconds in Roy staggers Arlovski with a hook, and pushes him against the cage again, trying once more for the takedown. After 45 seconds of clinching, Arlovski frees himself, and catches Roy. Roy is against the fence now, takes shots, and shortly after goes down and the fight is over.

Now, we have a pattern with Roy where he actively works the clinch against the cage in order to get his opponents down to the ground. He has had success in this position, and has much experience with it against good fighters.

Roy utilizes his weight well, has good balance, and is able to strike from the clinch, and has demonstrated he can get takedowns from there, too. Roy has a lot of experience in the clinch. Roy has shown he can hold guys against the fence. Mir has only demonstrated this against an old on-the-verge-of-retirement Mirko.

I give Roy the edge in the clinch due to his experience with that position being vastly more extensive than Mir's, and the fact Roy has demonstrated good takedown ability from there while Mir has simply not shown us that against any of his opponents.

Mir has not shown the kind of footwork he will need to keep Roy from getting him into the fence imo.

As for strength, this is damned difficult to gauge. Roy weighs a bit more, but it seems Mir has a little more muscle. I just think Roy uses leverage better than Mir, has far more experience in the clinch (where much of this fight will take place imo) and I see Mir wearing down faster than Roy.

So, for a toss-up fight, I cannot guarantee Roy will win this fight. However, I can say I think Roy has good and clear advantages that imo should lead him to victory more often than not. Certainly often enough that at slightly + money or even money I will bet Roy strongly believing that it's a solid play.

Thank you again, i really appreciate this type of posts.

You are welcome, man. I enjoy these write-ups, just wish I had more time lately.

I do think roy may win this fight morally. My concern is the judges if this goes three rounds. I cant take the mental breakdown of a close split decision that doesnt go my way.

We all feel you on that! Good luck with your action!

[LayingThe$Down]

is mir's standup that much worse than arlovski?

This depends upon what time frame you use to compare them. Consider this: When Arlovski fought Roy, from UFC 40 (Nov. 2002) to Elite XC: Heat (Oct. 2008) Arlovski went 11-2, with those 2 losses to Tim Sylvia.

Very impressive.

Of course, from January 2009 to present, Arlovski has gone 0-4.

There are many factors to consider for this fight than just the pure striking ability. Especially when you have 2 guys who have better ground games than their striking. This could lead to a clinch/takedown war, or a ground match.

Also, Roy almost always tries to get his opponent down, and to prevent this Mir will have to make adjustments to his striking.

These adjustments may hinder Frank's effectiveness on his feet, just like Mir's repeated takedown attempts hindered the effectiveness of Mirko's striking.

This is an example why styles matter, and against different opponents a fighter's striking may look better or worse.

Just my 2 cents.

[Tree Rollins]

Roy Nelson is an obnoxious slob. Mir by fatality.

[NickDiaz209]

You guys are all a bunch of morons... Mir isn't winning this fight

[NickDiaz209]

Mir isn't better on the ground...Nelson beat him in a grappling match

Mir isn't a better striker, beating CroCop and almost dying against Carwin < Staying competitive with Dos Santos, KOing Struve and Schaub

At best Mir goes the distance, but it won't happen

[jin2daj]

im probably betting with my heart on this one, but i really like mir. he seems focused and i really appreciate his hard work :/

prob a no bet for me

[Ladle]

This depends upon what time frame you use to compare them. Consider this: When Arlovski fought Roy, from UFC 40 (Nov. 2002) to Elite XC: Heat (Oct. 2008) Arlovski went 11-2, with those 2 losses to Tim Sylvia.

Very impressive.

Arlovski has always been pretty poor defensively and it was only a matter of time before he was shown to be deficient repeatedly and successively. His chin has weakened with every KO loss, but that's not too significant when you consider that his ability to take a punch has stunk since day one.

You guys are all a bunch of morons... Mir isn't winning this fight

Most people in this thread favour Nelson. Pay attention.

[LayingThe$Down]

You guys are all a bunch of morons... Mir isn't winning this fight

Your well-thought and highly researched reasons have convinced me. How can anyone argue with your logic?

I mean, really, are you throwing darts at a board? Do you rely upon astrology?

An opinion without rationalization is worthless. Your post is a waste of time. While I would respect a contrarian view, right or wrong, you bring nothing to the debate whatsoever.

And I apologize if I used too many big words for you.

[LayingThe$Down]

Arlovski has always been pretty poor defensively and it was only a matter of time before he was shown to be deficient repeatedly and successively. His chin has weakened with every KO loss, but that's not too significant when you consider that his ability to take a punch has stunk since day one.

What hurt Arlovski the most is the fact he slowed down drastically, his speed faded even quicker than most HW's. Today, his punches look so much slower, like he's underwater, and lack the sting they used to have. Back in the day, his hands were so much quicker.

I agree his chin was never the best, but his speed helped cover that weakness imo.

And I also agree that with each KO, the brain requires less damage each time to cause the next KO. Arlovski should have retired a few fights ago imo. I can't believe he is fighting again.

[jin2daj]

What hurt Arlovski the most is the fact he slowed down drastically, his speed faded even quicker than most HW's. Today, his punches look so much slower, like he's underwater, and lack the sting they used to have. Back in the day, his hands were so much quicker.

I agree his chin was never the best, but his speed helped cover that weakness imo.

And I also agree that with each KO, the brain requires less damage each time to cause the next KO. Arlovski should have retired a few fights ago imo. I can't believe he is fighting again.

arlovski is fighting again? ive heard that he doesnt want to retire, but did he acutally sign a fight?

[Vaughany]

You guys are all a bunch of morons... Mir isn't winning this fight

Majority are picking Nelson to win dummy

[Poppa Catfish]

Majority are picking Nelson to win dummy

Simply amazing!

[Ladle]

What hurt Arlovski the most is the fact he slowed down drastically, his speed faded even quicker than most HW's. Today, his punches look so much slower, like he's underwater, and lack the sting they used to have. Back in the day, his hands were so much quicker.

Well, that's not his problem. By heavyweight MMA standards, he still has very quick hands. His problem is that whenever anyone presses forward against him he backs straight up with his hands down. That's an absolutely fundamental flaw in his boxing and it's been present from the start of his career. Combine that with an increasingly flimsy chin and it's no surprise he's been knocked out on so many occasions.

[Vaughany]

Simply amazing!

I'd also like to see his massive sum of money tht he will surely be putting on Nelson if he thinks Mir has "no chance."!

[Poppa Catfish]

I'd also like to see his massive sum of money tht he will surely be putting on Nelson if he thinks Mir has "no chance."!

Time and time again, picking fighters off knee surgery is really a tremendously profitable angle.