Originally Posted by
Ladle
He is somewhat submission-savvy, and I appreciate why you'd take a flier on him at +200, but is there any area of the game where he's notably superior to Koscheck? While Story has improved since his debut, let's not forget that he was once largely out-boxed and out-wrestled by John Hathaway.
I mostly agree, though I may take a flier on Ortiz by decision if the odds are hefty. Combine some dubious judging with the fact that Bader has a history of looking dreadful in the second round, and we may have a recipe for an upset.
I agree with you, and JDS by KO/TKO will be the line I take for that fight.
I think JDS will get taken down, but I do think he's got the hips to get up. Keep in mind that when they were beginning to prepare to fight dos Santos, Velasquez's coaches didn't single out dos Santos' takedown defense; they singled out his hips and ability to escape from the bottom. It's the same attribute that allowed Velasquez to get back up and annihilate Lesnar. I think we see it again in this fight.
Re-watching Machida/T. Silva and Couture/Rodrigo makes me think otherwise. I think Randy drops like a sack of potatoes after Machida lands his first significant counter.