[sirchadwick1]

Loving Patricky here at -115! (bodog) He's still relatively new to the US scene, but I don't think his line is exactly right here b/c people aren't completely aware of his talent level. Everyone loves Imada because of that inverted triangle highlight they show us over and over again. Listen, I know the dude is tough... but he has has 15 losses and I think he's past his peak while Freire will be on top of his game w/ a lot of confidence after TKOing Rob. The guy has solid sub awareness and some power in his hands. I believe he keeps this one on the feet and gets the late TKO or decision nod here. His only question mark is cardio, but I'll take my chances. I'm actually loading up at -115 as I believe his line was around -150 initially and I felt that was fair. The Pitbull bros are for real. I'm only hesitant to bet on them against elite wrestlers.

Also liking the following parlay:

Alvarez
Saunders
Good

[omalley21]

I jumped on Freire and Good when the odds came out. Didnt take time to really study though. I wanted the openers. Im nervous about them now.

[sirchadwick1]

A lot of people like Hawn's chances here against Good and it's easy to see why. He's an Olympian Judoka and has transitioned to MMA quite well, going undefeated thus far. However, I believe he showed some holes in his game against Wallhead and immediately said to myself... he's not quite ready for Good. Lyman looked crisp against Lozano and constantly put pressure on him and I believe he will overwhelm Hawn. No one should sleep on him just b/c he was wrestlefvcked by Askren. I actually bet on Hawn in his last fight and was biting my nails there a few times thinking he may not get the decision. I have only bet on Good so far in a parlay, but plan on putting $ on him straight up if he hits -160.

[bjpenn85]

who do you think press the action, in terms of moving forward and control the pace? And who do you think is the quickest fighter?

I havent made up my mind. I dont se any guy have an advantage. Maybe freire has more power, but isnt amada better conditioned and quicker?

You said something about imadas 15 losses, i think nearly 10 of them is in the periode 1999-2002. Do you really pay attention to things happening for almost ten years ago? The only thing i can read from those losses is that he lost to good wrestlers in miller mckee and stevenson that you already mentioned. I dont think Toby imada is the typical fighter that just seems to loose or crumble when facing adversity, like for instance ryan jensen or wilson gouvea.

Past the peak? Seems more like a joke. Imada looks pretty sharp. I dont say he will win, but lets be reasonable here.

[sirchadwick1]

It's hard to say who exactly will press the action, but I believe Patricky will after Imada eats a few shots and backpeddles. Imada is quicker and could very well have the cardio advantage... but honestly I'm surprised at how well Freire goes hard at a high level without gassing. Most of Toby's losses came many years ago, yes so that probably isn't a good argument. But that's a lot of losses nonetheless, albeit against good competition. Those fights will eventually take a toll on him. If you want to focus on what he's done lately to win... it's mainly been submitting his opponents (most of which were not on his level). Hard for me to see Patricky getting caught in a sub here. What seems like a joke to you? Me saying Toby is past his peak? Or the fact that I feel confident Freire wins this fight?

[NunyaBidness]

Loving Patricky here at -115! (bodog) He's still relatively new to the US scene, but I don't think his line is exactly right here b/c people aren't completely aware of his talent level. Everyone loves Imada because of that inverted triangle highlight they show us over and over again. Listen, I know the dude is tough... but he has has 15 losses and I think he's past his peak while Freire will be on top of his game w/ a lot of confidence after TKOing Rob. The guy has solid sub awareness and some power in his hands. I believe he keeps this one on the feet and gets the late TKO or decision nod here. His only question mark is cardio, but I'll take my chances. I'm actually loading up at -115 as I believe his line was around -150 initially and I felt that was fair. The Pitbull bros are for real. I'm only hesitant to bet on them against elite wrestlers.

This line seems unreal to me. I maxed Imada at +160. Maxed again at +120.

I think he won the Curran fight, he lost to Alvarez, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He went 13-2 in the last 4 years, with some tough spots in there.

If we're record shopping, Freire has only beat 2 guys with winning records. Beating all of Guns n Roses at one time is impressive though.

[sirchadwick1]

I agree w/ you on the Curran fight. It was close, but I gave the nod to Imada in that one. I also thought that Huerta beat Curran and was shocked by that decision. If you think that's crazy value in Imada... I won't argue. But he would have to be at around +200 for me to consider playing the other side. Call it more of a hunch than concrete evidence b/c there isn't a ton of info or footage to go on when it comes to Patricky. I'm just going off what I've seen and his camp and training partners.

[omalley21]

Im from mass, Ive seen Hawn on local shows, was never really that impressed with him. But Im having serious second thoughts on freire. Im considering buying back on imada and losing the juice.

[Vaughany]

If I had to pick I'd take Imada in this one, I almost bit at the +165 opener and sort of wish I had as it would of been an easy arb opportunity but it's not as easy to predict line movement with these smaller shows and lesser known fighters. Alvarez himself said the other day in an interview that Imada is a top fighter and would kill it in the UFC.

[sirchadwick1]

Looks like I'm a lone wolf on this one. I'm sticking w/ Freire though, no doubt.

[teaserpleaser]

Imada tough no doubt but im rolling with patricky with no hesitation

[rocky mattioli]

Im from mass, Ive seen Hawn on local shows, was never really that impressed with him. But Im having serious second thoughts on freire. Im considering buying back on imada and losing the juice.

little surprised at the hawn love....he`s a judo champ,sure enough....but he`s giving up a good deal of height and reach here...and lozado was no joke...


aside from a dominant wrestler like askren(is anybody sure that hawn`s wrestling trumps good`s?)tler is?),looks from here like good is gonna be a tough nut to crack...plus he`s almost 10 years younger...

i`m using him in a par with alvarez(who,imo,is looking world class and then some)...alvarez looks better every time out...he destroyed huerta(and then i watched a tape of huerta giving gray maynard fits)...i don`t think he`s been challenged at 155 yet...(edit:...aoki)

hawn beats good,he`s definitely one tough nut...

this is a seriously good card...i hope they get some ratings...

[sirchadwick1]

Toby is 1-3 against Brazillians... just sayin'. I know I know... fighters improve.

[NunyaBidness]

Toby is 1-3 against Brazillians... just sayin'. I know I know... fighters improve.

But he's 1-0 against Costa Ricans, so there's that.

[sirchadwick1]

Nunya, are you a L4D2 junkie? If so, hit me up w/ your gamertag and I'll find ya online sometime. I play religiously.

[terpkeg]

I see Freire with much more technical stand up, better power and probably having a wrestling advantage. Imada is very comfortable and dangerous off his back, but this is not necessarily judge friendly. Imada will win this fight only if he subs Freire or less likely, if he winds up in dominant positions out of scambles controlling a large portion of 2 of 3 rounds.

I am curious to know how the Imada backers see this ending? I think it will be hard for Imada to get fight down and he will have to be very creative or put himslef at significant risk and hope Freire gets a little wild in exchanges to score a takedown. Imada is tough, but I see UD Freire and am close to playing the -115.

Would like to see a few more opinions before I pull the trigger.

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya, are you a L4D2 junkie? If so, hit me up w/ your gamertag and I'll find ya online sometime. I play religiously.

I play constantly! Only versus, and I don't use a mic, can't stand talking to all the little kids on there. You on Xbox? I play the PC version.

[Alt75]

I see Freire with much more technical stand up, better power and probably having a wrestling advantage. Imada is very comfortable and dangerous off his back, but this is not necessarily judge friendly. Imada will win this fight only if he subs Freire or less likely, if he winds up in dominant positions out of scambles controlling a large portion of 2 of 3 rounds.

I am curious to know how the Imada backers see this ending? I think it will be hard for Imada to get fight down and he will have to be very creative or put himslef at significant risk and hope Freire gets a little wild in exchanges to score a takedown. Imada is tough, but I see UD Freire and am close to playing the -115.

Would like to see a few more opinions before I pull the trigger.

I pretty much agree with your breakdown, my first thoughts on this fight was its a bad matchup for Imada despite the discrepancy in experience, just based on their skillsets. I like both guys but I struggle to see how Toby wins this fight outside a freakish KO or catching an over aggressive Friere in a sub off his back. If the fight goes the distance it will likely be Freire in control for 3 rounds. Although I think Freire finishes with strikes in the 2nd or 3rd.

[sirchadwick1]

Glad to hear other opinions on this fight. I've already thrown down $50 on Patricky in confidence. The Imada backers were starting to worry me a bit... yes you Vaughany. lol.

[Vaughany]

Glad to hear other opinions on this fight. I've already thrown down $50 on Patricky in confidence. The Imada backers were starting to worry me a bit... yes you Vaughany. lol.

ha I cant fault a play at -115, especially when it came out at -155 or sumin, I honestly havn't watched enough footage of either fight to have a firm grasp on this one. BOL with the play tho

[bjpenn85]

That he is past hes peak.He may be, but not to the extent worth mentioning. I planning to stay out of matchups that to me looks even. You may have observed something that i havent picked up yet, hopefully . Good luck to ya!

[sirchadwick1]

I rarely bet on very close lines like this... but this is one where I feel like I'm on the right guy. Imada gets a lot of recognition while Patricky is still green and out of the spotlight, but his style is going to be tough for Toby. This is his shot and I think he'll prove himself and make the finals.

Pitbull back up to -150 at 5dimes
Imada is at +130.

[bogbat]

Alvarez has a lot of respect for Toby Imada. In a sherdog radio interview he picked him to win the tournament.

[Alt75]

I was thinking of a Saunders, Freire and Alvarez parlay. Think these are locks but risk of 3 fights not really good value at $2.33 - +133

[rocky mattioli]

I was thinking of a Saunders, Freire and Alvarez parlay. Think these are locks but risk of 3 fights not really good value at $2.33 - +133

i understand why a guy might like freire...he impressed...but imada is no joke...i`m very surprised to hear someone refer to freire as a lock against imada....mccullough and imada seem to be heading in different directions,career wise... .this should be a much tougher nut to crack....

i`m seriously goosed to see this card...some real talent and solid match-ups here...

g.l. with the plays...should be some solid fights...

[Alt75]

I know Imada is no joke and has a wealth more experience just with the style matchups I think Freire will dictate the pace, will win the standup and not get caught on the ground. Of course I could be completely wrong, although most of the time I'm wrong is when a Pride vet is involved.

Yeah this is looking to be a great card. I really like the format and production of Bellator.

[terpkeg]

i understand why a guy might like freire...he impressed...but imada is no joke...i`m very surprised to hear someone refer to freire as a lock against imada....mccullough and imada seem to be heading in different directions,career wise... .this should be a much tougher nut to crack....

i`m seriously goosed to see this card...some real talent and solid match-ups here...

g.l. with the plays...should be some solid fights...

I certaintly see no lock, and agree Imada and McCullough are going in opposite directions, but Imada stand up still seemed pretty sloppy to me even in last years tournaments. If he can't turn this into a high paced grappling match, he doesnt win fight imho.

More I look at fights, best bet on card is Good -180 v. Hawn imo (Bodog). If Hawn/Wallhead turned into a primary stand up match, I dont think Hawn's judo can dictate this fight either. Good is more well rounded and the more explosive/athletic fighter imo. He lost to Askren because Askren's one strength was so great it was able to dictate the fight and even there Askren found himself in trouble. Here, while Hawn's Judo is world class, I dont think it dictates the fight and I think Good beats Hawn up on the feet. By far, Hawn's toughest test to date and a line of -300 (75%) seems more appropriate to me.

[NunyaBidness]

Toby beat Any Souwer in a kickboxing match. While I wouldn't say he beat him in the standup, he was certainly competitive.

Imada had been overvalued due to his one remarkable submission, but I think Freire is overvalued here due to beating an aging McCullough (who still managed to take a round).

[omalley21]

I just rewatched Bellator 35 I think it was. With Good-lozano and Hawn-Wallhead. Hawn improved a lot since the last time I saw him. I shouldve watched that before I bet lol. ****.

[omalley21]

Toby beat Any Souwer in a kickboxing match. While I wouldn't say he beat him in the standup, he was certainly competitive.

Imada had been overvalued due to his one remarkable submission, but I think Freire is overvalued here due to beating an aging McCullough (who still managed to take a round).

Ya are you guys forgetting he basically lost to McCollough until he caught him late in the fight. He didnt look impressive though. Imada and Hawn for the upsets im thinking now.

[Camdemonium]

Only two things I don't like about Bellator is commercials and no HD where I live so it looks like shit.

[urge2kill]

I was unimpressed with Hawn his last fight as well. I'll stay away from that. I like Imada at +135, hoping he gets back to +150 and I'll add more. I think it should be closer to even.

[goblinburner]

any one have a stream for this fight

[teaserpleaser]

Imada tough no doubt but im rolling with patricky with no hesitation

with no hesitation!!!! Patricky

[sirchadwick1]

The Pitbull bros are for real. That flying knee was brutal.

Loving Bellator tonight! Congrats to those who followed me on this play.