1. #1
    ClimbSomeRocks
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    Gambling on bitcoin with leveraged longs/shorts for US customers

    Anyone playing this game?

    If so, what exchange are you using? I've read a few articles that US customers are using VPN's for sites like bitmex.

    I fully believe in BTC long term. My price projection is $200k by mid 2022. That said, I'm interested in seeing if there are any traders here who have tips, tricks, and are actually profitable...

    I know I can leverage up to 5x on Kraken. Where else? I don't love the interface on Kraken.


    For those who are are advantage gamblers and like math.... How do you calculate EV and fair value on BTC? For example. If I believe there is a 10% chance that BTC will 10x, I'd break even. Obviously deciding the 10% chance that the price moves a certain amount is the challenge. I look at it light a blackjack sidebet than can be beaten counting cards. So if we break even on the 10% chance to 10X, but we believe there is a 1% chance we 100X also, then we would win both the 10x bet to break even, and win the 100x bet. So our EV would be increased to a point where we would take the bet of "investing" in bitcoin.

    Thoughts and fallacies in my logic?
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  2. #2
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    i use to play with simplefx, you might want to try it 10-1 leverage
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  3. #3
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    i use to play with simplefx, you might want to try it 10-1 leverage
    SimpleFX and all FX exchanges involving bitcoin ban US residents. OP I am not aware of any. I did not know Kraken lets you 5x. Do they charge daily margin fees or interest? What fees are there for leveraging? I would appreciate any comment and/or experiences.

    I am long bitcoin technically speaking right now as it is an uptrend after bottoming out around 3600. It held support past week or so around 5000 and has tightened its trading range past few days. Even though it included a weekend, tightening of a range usually leads to a break out, more often with the previous trend, which has been upward.

    Hence, why all my series bets are with Fairlay in bitcoin. Last year when bitcoin still in heavy decline, all series bets were with Fiat books.
    Last edited by eaglesfan371; 04-15-19 at 12:06 AM.
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