[BatemanPatrickl]

This contest is statistically structured towards advantaging dog-based systems. Limiting the number of Units wagered and maximizing skew toward plus lines handicaps chalky bets in general.

If there are no restrictions on the number of bets and the minus line, someone can bet a lot of chalky lines and they might have a run of "picking up nickels in front of a steam roller".

One of my chalk systems is running at 73% wins with an average line of -151. One of my dog systems is running at 69% with a +125 avg line but the SIGNALS ARE INFREQUENT <<----- this is where I would setup a contest if I wanted to increase my probability of winning.

Most bettors are fav-biased ... so maybe Bateman is pro or semi-pro and uses a dog system. I use both only because I want different metrics.

GL in the contest.

This guy gets it. Jay the good news for me is I can take medication for my "bill polar". Nothing you can take for the stupid and illiterate "deseases" you display you stupid ****.

In honor of Mr. Hedge:

30 days, 100 UNITS must be wagered, Min 1 and Max 3 UNITS per play. Lines of -151 OR less. Lines must be taken from Pinnacle and posted with each play. If I find out your stupid ass is posting old lines and trying to pass them off as current ones you lose. Either accept or not you retarded monkey.

[Jayvegas420]

Minimum 100 units wagered or exactly 100 units wagered?

[Jayvegas420]

Whatever, I don't care, let's just start this fukkin thing.
Worst case scenario, you fluke be by a quarter unit & I'm back when you're banned again.
And since we've established that this isnt about the points, we don't need to conduct our business here.

Post your picks here:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post22332933


Also, loser can't post anywhere in the forum unless publically expressed consent is given by the winner.

[Jayvegas420]

I don't know if I could be any more considerate?
I've bent over backwards trying to compromise with you.
If this isn't good enough then its clear you're ducking me.

[BatemanPatrickl]

100 UNITS in total wagered. No more, no less. No futures or props. F5, team totals okay.

[Jayvegas420]

Your rules, your site, your odds. If you don't want me betting road dogs on Fridays, that's fine. If you say I can take pitchers whose names start with the letter "H", that's fine too.
Just stop talking & start picking. You're about 27% in the last 3 days. What the fukk am I worried about?
Go to the thread, accept, start picking & see what happens.

[BatemanPatrickl]

Going to change the rules. 1 to 5 UNITS may be wagered on each play. 5 being the MAX. You down Jay?

[Jayvegas420]

Rules, yours, are in the OP.
Don't try changing them, or manipulating them.
Only a donkey would try to circumvent the rules.

[BatemanPatrickl]

I am trying to make it easier to get to 100 UNITS. If you don't want to add 4 OR 5 UNIT plays that is fine. Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.

[Triple_D_Bet]

This contest is statistically structured towards advantaging dog-based systems. Limiting the number of Units wagered and maximizing skew toward plus lines handicaps chalky bets in general.

If there are no restrictions on the number of bets and the minus line, someone can bet a lot of chalky lines and they might have a run of "picking up nickels in front of a steam roller".

One of my chalk systems is running at 73% wins with an average line of -151. One of my dog systems is running at 69% with a +125 avg line but the SIGNALS ARE INFREQUENT <<----- this is where I would setup a contest if I wanted to increase my probability of winning.

Most bettors are fav-biased ... so maybe Bateman is pro or semi-pro and uses a dog system. I use both only because I want different metrics.

GL in the contest.

Wait...so you're saying the guy who says you can't bet favorites in his contest is trying to win by betting dogs? Good job Sherlock

boeing already cracked the case a page ago though:

Bateman doesn't understand basic betting concepts.

He thinks that big chalk plays have an advantage, him and Brock have similar thought processes.

[BatemanPatrickl]

Triple_D you up for a contest as well? Or are you too chickenshit to post plays like your preschool playmates?

[Triple_D_Bet]

Triple_D you up for a contest as well? Or are you too chickenshit to post plays like your preschool playmates?

Thought I covered that above? I'll post all the plays I bet on this month if it makes you feel better:





There ya go...now do you understand why I have no desire for a capping contest at the moment? Better question: does me not accepting a challenge change anything you trying to place nonsensical stipulations on a "who caps better" contest?

[BatemanPatrickl]

No need to go any further. You just proved what a coward you are. I can care less what bets you make in the SBR Sportsbook.

[greenhippo]

Why can't we just setup a regular SBR Challenge with regular sbrodds & start picking the 7:00 games?

He's delusional if he thinks anyone believes he isn't refreshing this thread every 3 minutes.

Well I think it's safe to say that's not the case

[Triple_D_Bet]

No need to go any further. You just proved what a coward you are. I can care less what bets you make in the SBR Sportsbook.

I proved what a coward I am...by declining to enter a sports betting contest, after telling you I haven't bet on sports in a month?

OK, you got me, I'll challenge you to a contest: Contest lasts 2 hours, no min picks, max 100. BetIsland Lines, 4 team parlays only, +PK lines only, scoring by units won/lost, can only bet pi units per play. In the event of a tie, tiebreaker is poster with most sportsbook winnings on SBR. Loser of contest will never post here again.

You could question why I chose that format, but I don't have to answer; it's my challenge. If you refuse, you're obviously a chickenshit coward.

Your move

[sbrhedge]

Wait...so you're saying the guy who says you can't bet favorites in his contest is trying to win by betting dogs? Good job Sherlock

the units restriction in this proposed contest has changed, and so has the minus line cap.

the biggest thing about betting a heavy line is that if you have a very large sample, you want to hit a large streak of picking up nickels before you hit a speed bump.

many hi-frequency trading algorithms work like heavy chalk systems, and rely on a super-large sample of picking a whole bunch of small bets in sequence (which is what I mean by picking up nickels in front of a steam roller). those systems are not looking for a massive outlier in nano-times.

if you collar-up the sample size and the hi probability/lower expectancy trade, you are slower to hit the 100 Unit max ceiling and less likely to catch a "huge lucky run" of small expectancies and "running the table".

suppose this contest was you only can bet MMA and Soccer No Draw/ No Bet. there are so many -500, -700, > -1000 lines that there might be a higher chance of winning a bunch of bets in-a-row. a dog-based system might not be able to catch up in that situation.

i assume that they are going to only play this contest ONCE, so i think the contest as originally presented when i made the post favors dog systems, of which Jay might not be running.

again GL you guys

[Triple_D_Bet]

the units restriction in this proposed contest has changed, and so has the minus line cap.

the biggest thing about betting a heavy line is that if you have a very large sample, you want to hit a large streak of picking up nickels before you hit a speed bump.

many hi-frequency trading algorithms work like heavy chalk systems, and rely on a super-large sample of picking a whole bunch of small bets in sequence (which is what I mean by picking up nickels in front of a steam roller). those systems are not looking for a massive outlier in nano-times.

if you collar-up the sample size and the hi probability/lower expectancy trade, you are slower to hit the 100 Unit max ceiling and less likely to catch a "huge lucky run" of small expectancies and "running the table".

suppose this contest was you only can bet MMA and Soccer No Draw/ No Bet. there are so many -500, -700, > -1000 lines that there might be a higher chance of winning a bunch of bets in-a-row. a dog-based system might not be able to catch up in that situation.

i assume that they are going to only play this contest ONCE, so i think the contest as originally presented when i made the post favors dog systems, of which Jay might not be running.

again GL you guys

So all that, just to once again tell us that a contest which prohibits betting favorites favors betting the only kind of bet you can make (underdogs)? Again, we figured it out, without the questionably relevant analogies. You seem like you like getting into the details, but the situation just wasn't that complicated....don't use 100 words when 10 will do the trick

[BatemanPatrickl]

Triple_D has a problem understanding even basic mathematics. Use pictures next time Hedge.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Triple_D has a problem understanding even basic mathematics. Use pictures next time Hedge.

1 challenge + 0 Batemans accepting the challenge = 1 chickenshit coward...my math seems to be fine

For future reference, accusing someone of not understanding a post when they can summarize it using < 10% of the words of the original post makes it clear that you're the one having trouble understanding what's going on

[BatemanPatrickl]

You must have missed the part where Jay and I are already posting plays for the challenge. Yeah you're smart; keeping blaming it on ADD kid.

[Triple_D_Bet]

You must have missed the part where Jay and I are already posting plays for the challenge. Yeah you're smart; keeping blaming it on ADD kid.

I proved what a coward I am...by declining to enter a sports betting contest, after telling you I haven't bet on sports in a month?

OK, you got me, I'll challenge you to a contest: Contest lasts 2 hours, no min picks, max 100. BetIsland Lines, 4 team parlays only, +PK lines only, scoring by units won/lost, can only bet pi units per play. In the event of a tie, tiebreaker is poster with most sportsbook winnings on SBR. Loser of contest will never post here again.

You could question why I chose that format, but I don't have to answer; it's my challenge. If you refuse, you're obviously a chickenshit coward.

Your move

[Jayvegas420]

I had to comply. You can't argue with stupid.

[Jayvegas420]

So Bat Man, did you quit or are you gonna stick with it? No one has ever quit a challenge this early. Trust me. It gets better.
I'll be gentle
I won't embarras you!