[Triple_D_Bet]

Ttitle says it all. Must post up here for action.

Most Points: As determined by player who has the most points earned among all players during the finals. A tie is considered a push. Max wager is 100 points.

Team MVP: Team MVP as selected by SBR per rules (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...-ipad-3-a.html). Max wager is 200 points.

Team To Win: Winning Team. Max wager is 500 points.

Team To Lose: Line for team to not take 1st. Max wager is to win 300.

For ease of tracking, please state your wager, odds and to win amount in your post.

Good luck!

Player	Most Points	Team MVP
aggieshawn	+4560	+1120
ticklz	+4510	+1110
Soxsfan9	+4420	+1090
the_locksmith	+4380	+1080
BeerDog99	+4300	+1060
ireland1946	+4060	+990
k13	+3950	+970
r3coil	+3370	+810
sinmiedo	+3160	+760
imack	+3000	+720
boeing power	+2930	+700
the_situation	+2410	+560
zwoeins	+6080	+1250
dikefale	+6050	+1240
horja1	+5500	+1120
RealMadrid	+5310	+1080
dare	+5300	+1080
nebunul	+4450	+900
Stifler	+4280	+860
Diesel79	+3940	+790
hax	+3860	+770
slikec	+3700	+730
Stefan	+3520	+690
moretti	+2940	+570
sportfan	+3430	+1040
downsouth	+3350	+1020
empiremaker	+3340	+1010
jack_matz	+3240	+980
TheGiant	+3170	+960
ArunSh	+3010	+900
JAKEPEAVY21	+2840	+850
shock11	+2840	+850
GUMMO77	+2710	+810
ShogunRua	+2670	+800
ronzer	+2500	+740
d2bets	+2370	+700
Augustus	OFF THE BOARD	+2190
katstale	+6970	+1350
CookieMonster	+5270	+1010
Optional	+5170	+990
brad89	+4830	+920
Enkhbat	+4670	+890
wulfman14	+4560	+860
panamabrad	+4440	+840
blacklady	+3860	+720
foxx	+3550	+660
WillC	+3530	+650
theballsflop	+3430	+630

Team	To Win	To Lose	Last	Not Last
USA	+130	-234	+610	-410
Canada	+210	-313	+450	-250
Europe	+300	-400	+380	-180
World	+320	-427	+365	-165

[yisman]

zwoeins	+6089 risk 45	+1250 risk 20
dikefale	+6058 risk 38	+1240 risk 10

[yisman]

Augustus

+11059 risk 100

+2190 risk 200

[Triple_D_Bet]

Both bets are good at listed odds Yis, although post has since been rounded down for cleaner odds.

Thinking about taking a hit out on Augustus...if he hits the most points I'm gonna need a loan

[yisman]

I was wondering where the weird numbers came from.

I want to bet Team US but I need it from all the people bashing the US every year. Can't bet +130 here!


Your odds on the team world members are awfully short.

[Robber]

Augustus team MVP +2190 bet 100
Augustus +11050 bet 20

[Triple_D_Bet]

I was wondering where the weird numbers came from.

I want to bet Team US but I need it from all the people bashing the US every year. Can't bet +130 here!


Your odds on the team world members are awfully short.

I think the odds on team world members are fairly accurate for the format...given the variance in the format anything can happen, and Team World's stats about the same as Team Europe's. Also didn't feel comfortable holding any less due to the variance, which impacts the Team World members a bit more since they're generally weaker.

Really wanted to put US at longer odds, but the data I have just doesn't support it. They might lose again this year, but they've got a pretty significant edge in my opinion.

[theballsflop]

Do u mind explaining why the lowest point qualifiers have the least attractive odds? Thought i shld be the biggest dog heh

[Triple_D_Bet]

Do u mind explaining why the lowest point qualifiers have the least attractive odds? Thought i shld be the biggest dog heh

You don't have the least attractive odds (entire US team has lower odds, as do others). Odds are based off my best estimate of your chances to win; in your case there's not much information to go off, but what little information I have on you suggests that you're slightly better than average, hence the odds.

[Optional]

Optional

+5170 5 points

+990 35 points

[no1here]

the_situation +2410, sinmiedo +3160, moretti +2940, zwoeins +6080, nebunul +4450, d2bets +2370 15 each
the_situation +2410, sinmiedo +3160, moretti +2940, d2bets +2370 15 each

[no1here]

Carsellers4 has 30 on Augustus +11050

[Triple_D_Bet]

Carsellers4 has 30 on Augustus +11050

CS4 is not allowed to place any bets with me as he is a confirmed stiff, liar etc. This is your bet, and any winnings will be shipped to you; if you choose to give those points to the casino via CS4, that is your choice.

[yisman]

I think the odds on team world members are fairly accurate for the format...given the variance in the format anything can happen, and Team World's stats about the same as Team Europe's.

Based on what? Team Europe is way ahead in everything. I think that includes points per cash. Were you cashing points cashed per tournament played?

Team World may win but it's hard to deny they were very unimpressive in qualifying (I guess because they didn't have to qualify). So I think they should be +400 and the individual member prices longer.

[trytrytry]

Augustus+11050 risk 33 to win 3646

Augustus +2190 risk 33 win 722

[yisman]

katstale

+6970 risk 40

+1350 risk 60

[trytrytry]

katstale+6970 risk 33 to win 2300

katstale +1350 risk 66 to win 891

[RudyRuetigger]

augustus has no shot in hell

i am going to say it goes to the giant

[Triple_D_Bet]

Based on what? Team Europe is way ahead in everything. I think that includes points per cash.

Team World may win but it's hard to deny they were very unimpressive in qualifying (I guess because they didn't have to qualify). So I think they should be +400 and the individual member prices longer.

Team Europe's points per cash are 81, compared to 76 for Team World. I agree they were unimpressive in qualifying, but most of them have similar cash-to-tourney ratios...the differences in winnings is largely due to not playing as many dailies.

I also expected Team World's odds to be longer before crunching the numbers, but Team Europe's data being fairly close to theirs and the large disparity between Europe/World and Canada/USA lowers the odds. Shaun has a bigger gap between Europe and World by putting Europe on par with Canada, which I think is a mistake...most of Canada is pretty solid.

As for individual members, with the exception of a few, I think most World players are within variance of grabbing most points and certainly MVP. I probably could have held a little less on the team MVP odds, but overall winner odds look good to me.

[Triple_D_Bet]

augustus has no shot in hell

i am going to say it goes to the giant

I'm hoping we're right on that Rudy, otherwise I'm gonna be buried Thanks for the vote of confidence, 10 point freeplay on TheGiant in each category for ya!

yis and try, it probably goes without saying but just to be clear: your bets are all good without requiring a post up

[yisman]

augustus has no shot in hell

That's why he has such attractive odds.

Given what I've seen from SBR poker, I'd gladly take anyone at over 100/1 odds.

I think I had one cash the final month on weekdays. The odds of that would've been astronomical. I only missed two tournaments, too (one where SBR went down and booted me, one where I didn't bother registering because it was a waste of time).

[Triple_D_Bet]

That's why he has such attractive odds.

Given what I've seen from SBR poker, I'd gladly take anyone at over 100/1 odds.

I think I had one cash the final month on weekdays. The odds of that would've been astronomical. I only missed two tournaments, too (one where SBR went down and booted me, one where I didn't bother registering because it was a waste of time).

In most cases I would agree that anyone's got a decent shot and would hammer odds that long...in this case though, the odds might not be long enough.

[yisman]

yeah on team mvp you have several guys +650 or worse to win it. No one is good enough to bet on at those odds.

[theballsflop]

theballsflop: Most Points: Risk 15@

+3430

MVP: Risk 15@ +630

[yisman]

What odds could I get that team world does not win?

[Triple_D_Bet]

True enough yis, some of the MVP odds are a bit low...the problem is there's a really large difference between top and bottom members of some teams, enough to overcome variance in many cases I think.

I think the best I could offer on Team World not to win would be the +102 or so you'd get by splitting bet between other countries...variance or not, i don't like their chances much!

[yisman]

True enough yis, some of the MVP odds are a bit low...the problem is there's a really large difference between top and bottom members of some teams, enough to overcome variance in many cases I think.

I think the best I could offer on Team World not to win would be the +102 or so you'd get by splitting bet between other countries...variance or not, i don't like their chances much!

I wouldn't get close to +102 by splitting bets among other countries. US alone is +130.

Just requesting a yes/no winner like 5 Dimes often has (like the last day of a golf tournament, they'll do a yes/no on the top 4 or 5 guys).

In any case, I'm a believer that SBR poker is primarily luck. Maybe 70/30. That's why I could never bet someone +600 to finish highest on his 12 person team over a short tournament, even if he's the best online player in the world. Team MVP hold is most noticeable on team US, where no one has good odds.

[shaunovery]

Rest of world not to win -500

[Triple_D_Bet]

I wouldn't get close to +102 by splitting bets among other countries. US alone is +130.

Just requesting a yes/no winner like 5 Dimes often has (like the last day of a golf tournament, they'll do a yes/no on the top 4 or 5 guys).

In any case, I'm a believer that SBR poker is primarily luck. Maybe 70/30. That's why I could never bet someone +600 to finish highest on his 12 person team over a short tournament, even if he's the best online player in the world. Team MVP hold is most noticeable on team US, where no one has good odds.

Oops, I was factoring in my estimated percent chances for teams to win, screwed up my math pretty bad. Can offer -428 on World "no" if you'd like, max wager to win 300.

I don't think luck will has that much to do with it, not in this format and not with the disparities between skill levels. Hold is pretty noticable on US, but only a little less so on Canada...in both cases the gaps between top and bottom players aren't huge.

[Triple_D_Bet]

"To Lose" lines added for teams.

[yisman]

I don't think luck will has that much to do with it, not in this format and not with the disparities between skill levels.

US had clearly the best team in 2011 and 2012 and finished last both times. I think team world may have had 12 actual players back then (as opposed to currently having like four regulars, four semi-regulars, and four who rarely play) but still it was an enormous gap.

I posted up for all my other bets. I'll take this one without. Max on team world -428, to win 300.

[Triple_D_Bet]

US had clearly the best team in 2011 and 2012 and finished last both times. I think team world may have had 12 actual players back then (as opposed to currently having like four regulars, four semi-regulars, and four who rarely play) but still it was an enormous gap.

I posted up for all my other bets. I'll take this one without. Max on team world -428, to win 300.

Confirmed....at least winning this one would be some consolation if Augustus smokes everyone and wins it for team world

[yisman]

Just want to note something. SBR's contest seems to award one MVP total (and thus only one iPad awarded unless I'm misunderstanding something). "Tiebreaker 2: If two or more players on different teams are tied after the above, the MVP on the higher placed team will be the victor." but for betting purposes here, there will be an MVP for each team.

[Wulfman14]

you have not taken into account how many tournies world team have played. most that qualified only played the dailies casually 2-3 times a week. i lead the field and have missed at least 15-20 dailies while im sure the americans and canadians have only missed a few if any because of their intense competiton to make the team.
world team are the lines to hit cuz they are not indicative of skill in any way. our team was the most lax when it comes to "qualifying " cuz there was no "qualifying" for us.

and also strange you are not taking into account the average pts / cash as a factor in determining the line for team MVP. then again there are a lot of factors to consider making these lines and you'll go crazy making up a line if you take into account all of them.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Just want to note something. SBR's contest seems to award one MVP total (and thus only one iPad awarded unless I'm misunderstanding something). "Tiebreaker 2: If two or more players on different teams are tied after the above, the MVP on the higher placed team will be the victor." but for betting purposes here, there will be an MVP for each team.

Correct...if SBR gave out an ipad to each team's MVP it might almost justify the grueling length of this thing!