1. #36
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Indy +6.5
    Confirmed

  2. #37
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Green Bay might have been the simplest pick in NFL history if things continue as they are.

  3. #38
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Den/NE O50.5 -- this might be the squarest pick I make all season.

  4. #39
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    SF/Buff U45.5

  5. #40
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Phil/Pitts went Under

    Season 5-1-0

  6. #41
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Den/NE O50.5 -- this might be the squarest pick I make all season.
    confirmed

  7. #42
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    SF/Buff U45.5
    confirmed

  8. #43
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Philly/Pitts O44

    Mia/Cin U45
    Overall 1-1 on these plays

    Overall 6-1

    Might be saved by GBs failed 2 point conversion with Indy+6.5

  9. #44
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    yeah that 2 pt conversion wouldve been nice

    I'm on gb -6.5 and colts +7 trying for middle ugh

  10. #45
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Indy +6.5


    7-1-0 overall record with 2 late afternoon games pending.

    87.5%

  11. #46
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    yeah that 2 pt conversion wouldve been nice

    I'm on gb -6.5 and colts +7 trying for middle ugh
    Middling is an underused strategy. I personally like it when you can get EV (or near EV odds) on both lines.

  12. #47
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    I have jumped the gun on the cover but as long as there haven't been any rule changes there aren't point afters in OT

  13. #48
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    I have jumped the gun on the cover but as long as there haven't been any rule changes there aren't point afters in OT
    there's a rule change, if team kicks fg then the other team gets a chance

    but still don't kick extra points

  14. #49
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    there's a rule change, if team kicks fg then the other team gets a chance

    but still don't kick extra points
    I knew of that change, but if a team scores an opening drive TD it is still game over without extra point yes/no?

  15. #50
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    I knew of that change, but if a team scores an opening drive TD it is still game over without extra point yes/no?
    yes it's over without the extra point, the only way a team can win by more than 6 in ot is if they kick a field goal on the opening drive and then return a turnover for td on the opponent's first drive. would be a crazy way to lose a +8

  16. #51
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    1-1 with the 4:00 games

    8-2-0 overall record

    80%

  17. #52
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    No -3.5 snf

  18. #53
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    It should read New Orleans -3.5 SNF that is the play

    Not 'No -3.5 SNF' stupid sbr not letting us use capitals.

  19. #54
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    It should read New Orleans -3.5 SNF that is the play

    Not 'No -3.5 SNF' stupid sbr not letting us use capitals.
    confirmed

  20. #55
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    No -3.5 snf


    4-2 this Sunday

    9-2-0 Overall - 81.8%

  21. #56
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    hels you're on fire

    stop it!

  22. #57
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    I want to take the Jets but I cannot understand how they can even remain close. I'm predicting a backdoor cover or 2 pick 6s or something. I think they'll cover but can't pull the trigger.

  23. #58
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    No plays on here but have money on Under 40.5 which I very well may hedge at some point in the game.

  24. #59
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    No plays on here but have money on Under 40.5 which I very well may hedge at some point in the game.
    Im on the under too ugh

    Long td passes on 3rd down spell doom

  25. #60
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    Im on the under too ugh

    Long td passes on 3rd down spell doom
    We're both cashing!!

    However, I should've unloaded on NY and the points. Oh well. Somehow cashing on the U40.5 as there weren't any positive hedge bets. Back to work Thursday.

  26. #61
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    We're both cashing!!

    However, I should've unloaded on NY and the points. Oh well. Somehow cashing on the U40.5 as there weren't any positive hedge bets. Back to work Thursday.
    Yeah that was a miracle cover on under
    thought we were done after kick return td so mostly watching nyy/balt

  27. #62
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    new standings, not much action last weekend

    hels 9-2
    leafer 26-24
    jeffdane 18-32
    mugsey 24-38-1
    carolinadaze 27-39-1

  28. #63
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    new standings, not much action last weekend

    hels 9-2
    leafer 26-24
    jeffdane 18-32
    mugsey 24-38-1
    carolinadaze 27-39-1
    I haven't been following too closely other than Leafy. It looks like you're pretty good in 3 of the bets since 45 losses = losing the bet.

    I can't find any angles for tonights game right now. The square plays look to be Under and Titans +6.5. They're both very possible outcomes though. I'll sit it out and maybe make a couple live bets.

    Any plays Mike?

  29. #64
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    i'm on the over

    don't play that for the challenge though

  30. #65
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Pinny U43.5 EV just dropped to U42.5 -109

  31. #66
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i'm on the over

    don't play that for the challenge though
    This game is a toss up I reckon. BOL

  32. #67
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    Pinny U42.5 -115 at kickoff

  33. #68
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    As for the challenge i'm almost certainly gonna win those 3 so worst case scenario is breakeven. But i wouldn't do it again, way too much variance, i couldve easily lost a ton of points.

    If you ever want out, i'll run the numbers (or you can with binomial calculator) and settle based on odds as though you win 52% on average

  34. #69
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Pinny U42.5 -115 at kickoff
    People overestimating the steelers defense. Without polamalu and woodley the defense is average at best

  35. #70
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767

    I'm certainly happy the Titans are only kicking a field goal -- made a late bet on Under 42.5 (betfair) at 2.06

First 12345 ... Last
Top