[ChalkyDog]

Doesn't make sense here, they leaning OKC? They usually just post whatever bookmaker does, and book maker is currently Miami -3.

[hels]

They think they know something but really they don't.

[convick]

Begging for Heat "money". SBR Administration expecting an OKC win like you said.

I think they changed the line earlier this afternoon. It was at 3.5 in the morning and at 1.5 after noon.

[onlooker]

Has to be one of their special lines. Rotation numbers are 5099/5100.

[yisman]

Not liking this, because I was looking to bet OKC. Oh well, Miami it is...

[ChalkyDog]

OKC is still good, it just takes away the value on the ML.

[yisman]

what?


anyway, just bet 1100 on Miami spread and 1200 on Miami ML

[ChalkyDog]

what?


anyway, just bet 1100 on Miami spread and 1200 on Miami ML

You were leaning OKC, until a recreation book in its purest form puts out a line obviously leaning OKC's way, by taking away value on the OKC money line, and that convinced you to take Miami? because.... it's cheaper?

[Cheme82]

what?


anyway, just bet 1100 on Miami spread and 1200 on Miami ML

Same here, huge edge on Mia -1.5

[convick]

what?


anyway, just bet 1100 on Miami spread and 1200 on Miami ML

Fell right in their trap man. Miami might win anyways, so good luck with your wager.

[Cheme82]

I just played Mia -1.5 for another 500. I thought the limit was 1,000

[yisman]

You were leaning OKC, until a recreation book in its purest form puts out a line obviously leaning OKC's way, by taking away value on the OKC money line, and that convinced you to take Miami? because.... it's cheaper?

I don't think you get it. I was looking for a good line on OKC. I probably still will bet OKC, just not at SBR.

I'm not betting a team at +100 when I can get +130. Common sense.

Fell right in their trap man.

There's no such thing as a trap, really. You take it either way. If you don't like the play that much, you can bet OKC +3 somewhere else. You can't justify turning this down, whichever side you like.

[ChalkyDog]

I don't think you get it. I was looking for a good line on OKC. I probably still will bet OKC, just not at SBR.

I'm not betting a team at +100 when I can get +130. Common sense.



There's no such thing as a trap, really. You take it either way. If you don't like the play that much, you can bet OKC +3 somewhere else. You can't justify turning this down, whichever side you like.

OK, seems we are on the same page, as far as it being bothersome for OKC backers.

However, I fail to see why you take Miami if you liked OKC before seeing that line. Obviously, if you liked Miami - there is great value there, but that isn't the case.

[Cheme82]

OK, seems we are on the same page, as far as it being bothersome for OKC backers.

However, I fail to see why you take Miami if you liked OKC before seeing that line. Obviously, if you liked Miami - there is great value there, but that isn't the case.

Because the free 1.5 points gives you almost an 8% edge on the bet. Whether you "like" Miami or not doesn't matter.

It's like somebody offering to sell you a $1,080,000 winning lottery ticket for $1,000,000 (assuming no taxes and assuming you have the $). Even if you don't like playing the lottery, you'd be a fool to say no.

[yisman]

OK, seems we are on the same page, as far as it being bothersome for OKC backers.

However, I fail to see why you take Miami if you liked OKC before seeing that line. Obviously, if you liked Miami - there is great value there, but that isn't the case.

There's great value regardless of what I like.

[Deuce]

For the same reason they use bookmaker lines. House has a better advantage.

[ChalkyDog]

Key being winning. Sorry, as sharp as these lines may be, I am not trading in a winning ticket based on my projections for an 8% edge on the wrong side. Feel free to middle, it's just points anyway, but I just found it odd that they are obviously taking a side in this game.

I've seen a lot of these "special lines" throughout my short time here, and was a sucker for one once.

If you like OKC, play OKC regardless of a perceived 1.5 edge on Miami.

[Cheme82]

According to your projections, how often does OKC win this game?

[Duff85]

OKC is still good, it just takes away the value on the ML.

Key being winning. Sorry, as sharp as these lines may be, I am not trading in a winning ticket based on my projections for an 8% edge on the wrong side. Feel free to middle, it's just points anyway, but I just found it odd that they are obviously taking a side in this game.

I've seen a lot of these "special lines" throughout my short time here, and was a sucker for one once.

If you like OKC, play OKC regardless of a perceived 1.5 edge on Miami.

I will translate "My name is ChalkyDog and I hate money".

There is no such thing as the "wrong side". Sports betting is all about making +ev bets. That is a bet that will win enough when you place in the long term. I'd suggest that whatever you do couldn't beat closing odds of the bookmakers. If you think it would i'd be happy for you to throw random value offers out there and I will bet into them for points.

Would gladly own you for your money but SBR won't allow that... so points is the next best thing.

[LVHerbie]

I will translate "My name is ChalkyDog and I hate money".

Sums it up nicely...

Give me a point and a half in NBA and I would let you name my side for me on just about every game that doesn't cross zero...

[yisman]

Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1540683 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [99510] 1H MIAMI PK-115	287.50 / 250.00	250.00	WIN WIN	06/21/2012 08:28 PM
Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1539169 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [5100] MIAMI -1½-110	1100.00 / 1000.00	1000.00	WIN WIN	06/20/2012 11:49 PM
Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1539170 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [5100] MIAMI -120	1200.00 / 1000.00	1000.00	WIN WIN	06/20/2012 11:50 PM

[ChalkyDog]

I will translate "My name is ChalkyDog and I hate money".

There is no such thing as the "wrong side". Sports betting is all about making +ev bets. That is a bet that will win enough when you place in the long term. I'd suggest that whatever you do couldn't beat closing odds of the bookmakers. If you think it would i'd be happy for you to throw random value offers out there and I will bet into them for points.

Would gladly own you for your money but SBR won't allow that... so points is the next best thing.

Keep sounding off on theory. Tell me how the loser doesn't pay vig.

Also tell me had the line been OKC +4.5 or +5, you would have taken it due to the "value".

There is always a right and wrong side.

I capped this game for OKC and I was wrong. Shit happens - called gambling.

Move on.

Also, for failures sake, we are talking 1000 pts, right? My money was on OKC for 2 units, Over for 2 units, and Miami series +232 for a couple.

The SBR book also got hammered, because of them gambling on this line.

[ChalkyDog]

Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1540683 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [99510] 1H MIAMI PK-115	287.50 / 250.00	250.00	WIN WIN	06/21/2012 08:28 PM
Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1539169 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [5100] MIAMI -1½-110	1100.00 / 1000.00	1000.00	WIN WIN	06/20/2012 11:49 PM
Internet / -1	Ticket #: 1539170 Jun 21 09:00 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [5100] MIAMI -120	1200.00 / 1000.00	1000.00	WIN WIN	06/20/2012 11:50 PM

Congrats on your points win. I am going to guess, your probable money bet on OKC never happened - right?

[yisman]

I just played Mia -1.5 for another 500. I thought the limit was 1,000

I never checked. I just assumed we could never bet over 1k.

[ChalkyDog]

I never checked. I just assumed we could never bet over 1k.

I know the ML value changed over the 2 days, think it was OKC +105 before game time, you should be able to load up multiple times there.

I was barred from doing a 250pt parlay, saying I maxed out or something. Saved me points.

[Duff85]

Keep sounding off on theory. Tell me how the loser doesn't pay vig.

Also tell me had the line been OKC +4.5 or +5, you would have taken it due to the "value".

There is always a right and wrong side.

I capped this game for OKC and I was wrong. Shit happens - called gambling.

Move on.

Also, for failures sake, we are talking 1000 pts, right? My money was on OKC for 2 units, Over for 2 units, and Miami series +232 for a couple.

The SBR book also got hammered, because of them gambling on this line.

The loser doesn't pay vig is a dumb statement - because anyone doing this right is most likely only winning in the 50ish% range of their wagers over a decent sample - anyone who claims higher against -110s is a liar. I lose more wagers than I win (48%), because the average price I take is +130. I absolutely would have taken OKC+5. If you think there is a wrong and right side - give me 1.5 points in the NBA on the consensus line on every "wrong side". I'd love it.

[yisman]

I would also have taken OKC +5 and not regretted it one bit

if someone is giving you 1.5 points off the market, you grab it and say thank you. don't argue.

I know the ML value changed over the 2 days, think it was OKC +105 before game time, you should be able to load up multiple times there.

I was barred from doing a 250pt parlay, saying I maxed out or something. Saved me points.

I was saying how they apparently lifted the normally low limits for this and I didn't realize. SBR Book really took it on the chin. Six figure points loss, I'd imagine.

[Cheme82]

Keep sounding off on theory. Tell me how the loser doesn't pay vig.

Also tell me had the line been OKC +4.5 or +5, you would have taken it due to the "value".

There is always a right and wrong side.

I capped this game for OKC and I was wrong. Shit happens - called gambling.

Move on.

Also, for failures sake, we are talking 1000 pts, right? My money was on OKC for 2 units, Over for 2 units, and Miami series +232 for a couple.

The SBR book also got hammered, because of them gambling on this line.

I believe our disagreement here is a word issue. What you call the "right and wrong sides" is basically the thing that's more likely to happen and the thing that's less likely to happen.

What we are tring to say is that even something that's not likely to happen (what you call the wrong side), can be a profitable proposition. Let's say there is a box with 9 white balls and 1 black ball inside. If they offer you 20 to 1 on picking the black ball, that would be a great bet. You can make a fortune playing that game over and over. You would lose about 9 out of 10 bets, but the payout when you do win makes the bet profitable.

So it is wrong to call something the "wrong" side just because you don't think it's the most likely outcome. At the right price, any side can be a profitable bet.

Mia -1.5 -110
and
Mia ML -120
were both profitable propositions even if you thought OKC was going to win.

[ChalkyDog]

The loser doesn't pay vig is a dumb statement - because anyone doing this right is most likely only winning in the 50ish% range of their wagers over a decent sample - anyone who claims higher against -110s is a liar. I lose more wagers than I win (48%), because the average price I take is +130. I absolutely would have taken OKC+5. If you think there is a wrong and right side - give me 1.5 points in the NBA on the consensus line on every "wrong side". I'd love it.

I am not saying every time - I am saying this time. This one time.

Once again - theory man. We are talking about one game.

And OKC +5 is the wrong side.

There is either winner or losers - to quote a cliche. No theory in that. And anyone claiming there is, is trying to explain away a loss.

[ChalkyDog]

Duff, I love theory - have a bachelors in Philosophy.

This is about one line on one game, on a potential season that could last 3 games at most.

I get all the beating the book due to value long haul, but if you cap a gain a certain way, and you pick against it on those circumstances - I don't know what to say.