[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[imgv94]

I love the REDS!!!

[Willie Bee]

St. Louis (C.Carpenter) at Pittsburgh (V.Santos) – 12:35 p.m. ET
WEATHER: The temps should be in the low-to-mid 70s for this game, sunny with winds 5-10 MPH out of NE (from LF corner to RF corner).

UMPIRES: Greg Gibson should be behind the plate with home teams and the over 2-0 so far in his plate outings this season. He’s called 21 walks to 20 strikeouts this season working for starters Tim Hudson, Jamey Wright, Jeff Weaver and Jarrod Washburn.

The 2005 NLCY winner, Chris Carpenter, is making his fourth go of the year with a 1-1 record and 2.37 ERA. The Cardinals are 1-2 so far in his starts. Carpenter’s last start saw him throw 115 pitches over eight innings in a 1-0 loss at home to the Reds. He ND’d in his last road start at Chicago with the Cubs winning it, 3-2. What I’m trying to say is Carpenter could easily be 3-0 right now. Carpenter is limiting left-handers to 175 (40 AB) and a homer with right-handers batting .303 (33 AB) with a long ball. At PNC, he’s 2-1 in his most recent three starts with a 3.86 ERA, and is 5-1 in his last seven starts against the Pirates with a 3.04 in just over 50 innings. Without Sean Casey and Ryan Doumit in the lineup, Joe Randa (.281,2 HR, 32 AB) is the only hitter with anything close to success against Carpenter. Jeromy Burnitz (.188, 16 AB), Jack Wilson (.063, 16 AB) and Jason Bay (.071, 14 AB) have been dead in the water against him.

Victor Santos makes his fourth start of the season for the Bucs with a 1-2 record and 7.07 ERA in 14 IP so far. He’s averaging over 95 pitches per start and has worked into the sixth inning just once, the other two times never making it through the fifth inning. His last start came at home when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in less than five innings to the Cubs, showing them 108 pitches. Righty’s are batting a robust .407 (27 AB) against Santos this year, though to his credit he’s yet to allow a homer to anyone so far. He’s 1-3 in six starts and a bullpen session the last three years against the Cards, posting a 5.29 ERA in 32.1 IP. This is only the third start at PNC Park, and he’s 0-2, 8.64 so far. Jim Edmonds, if he plays, and Albert Pujols hit him well, but no current Cards batter has ever taken him deep.

MY PLAY: Jeff Suppan showed his true self on the road yesterday and allowed the Pirates to top the Cards for just the 11th time in their last 32 meetings. Can’t bet against Carpenter in this one.


New York (M.Mussina) at Toronto (T.Lilly) – 12:37 p.m. ET
WEATHER: No clouds and very little wind inside Skydome. In case you’re traveling to Toronto today, the temps should range from high-60s to mid-40s with a lot of sunshine and a light breeze from the north.

UMPIRES: Brian Runge works his fourth game behind the plate this season, the first time to call a game for either the Yanks or the Jays. Home teams are 1-2 in his previous three games, with the over 2-0, plus a push. His K:B ratio is currently 60.5-to-39.5, and he’s rung up 51 batters so far this season to 23 walks.

Mike Mussina makes his fourth start of the season with a 1-1 personal record with a 3.20 ERA, and the Yankees 1-2 overall in his outings. He threw 116 pitches in a 7-inning, 5-1 loss at Minnesota in his last start, and he is making his 4th-straight start on the road. Lefty’s are batting just .167 (36 AB) against him with 2 HR while righty’s are hitting .270 (37 AB) with no homers. He’s 4-4 in his last nine starts against Toronto with a hefty 5.30 ERA. At Skydome he has similar numbers the last three years (2-2, 5.28). Hitters most likely to give Moose trouble are Frank Catalanotto (.426, 2 HR, 47 AB), Vernon Wells (.317, 2 HR, 41 AB) and Shea Hillenbrand (.350, 3 HR, 40 AB). Only Eric Hinske (.138, 29 AB) has really had trouble against Mussina in this lineup.

Southpaw Ted Lilly (1-0, 3.86) makes his third start of the season for the Blue Jays, with Toronto 2-0 so far in his appearances including a win last week in Boston. He is not a replica of Frank ‘Yankees Killer’ Lary, as Lilly is 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Yanks. At Skydome he’s 14-9 in his last 28 starts with a 4.21 ERA in 171 frames.
Pinstripers who hit him well are Alex Rodriguez (.314, 4 HR, 35 AB), Hideki Matsui (.364, 22 AB) and Robinson Cano (3-for-4, HR). Derek Jeter (.118, HR, 17 AB) and Gary Sheffield (.120, HR, 25 AB) hate to see Lilly on the hill.

MY PLAY: Both teams have tomorrow off, so look for the two managers to empty their bullpens without hesitation. And they just might have to do that since neither starter has had much success against the other lineup. I like the under (10½) and I like the Yankees.

[bigboydan]

Jim Edmonds ended up playing today, and hit a home run.

larussa said he would not play at all in this series against the pirates either.

[Illusion]

Jim Edmonds ended up playing today, and hit a home run.

larussa said he would not play at all in this series against the pirates either.

Good, because I had the Cradinals runline.

[bigboydan]

S.D. is winning for me today

[Illusion]

S.D. is winning for me today

I also have the Padres. I'm having an awesome day and I didn't get a chance to post my plays.

[imgv94]

S.D. is winning for me today

Man if I would of known u guys were on the Padres I
would of hit it. I like the Padres that team will win more
than half of their games!!

Glad u and ILL hit!!!

[BigD]

I'm liking

Brewers & Tigers any thoughts

[bigboydan]

i do like the brewers tonight, but passing on detroit/oakland myself.

[onlooker]

I love the REDS!!!

Nice comeback by the Reds. I thought they were dead in the water after the 6th.

[Wassymac]

I'm liking

Brewers & Tigers any thoughts

I already went with Rogers and his ridiculous record at the Coliseum. I think Rogers as an underdog here is a bargain.


Any thoughts on the D'Backs? I see juuso made it a large play on the runline and its got my attention. Cain has really struggled out of the gate and Webb is coming off a pretty solid start against Houston. I like the sinkerballer here against the Giants.

[onlooker]

I really dont have a opinion on the SF/ARI game, Wassy. My late night action is on the Cubs verses Penny.

[Wassymac]

Thanks Onlooker. Curious why you like the Rookie against Penny tonight?

[Wassymac]

Pretty braindead play by the BrewCrew catcher trying to get the lead runner at 3rd on a SAC bunt with one out. Costs them atleast one run...

[bigboydan]

Curious why you like the Rookie against Penny tonight?

my guess would because Sandy Alomar Jr. is catching tonight

[onlooker]

Thanks Onlooker. Curious why you like the Rookie against Penny tonight?

For one, Penny dont pitch to well against the Cubs. Even when he was at Florida.

[Alamorich]

Nice pitchers duel between Tribe & Orioles.

[Wassymac]

For one, Penny dont pitch to well against the Cubs. Even when he was at Florida.

He's only faced them twice since 2004 though (one good outing...one bad). Lot of new Cubbies since 2003 and before. I am on the over though so I won't mind a few runs from the Baby Bears.

[imgv94]

Cubs are a better team than the Dodgers. I haven't enjoyed what I have
seen from the Dodgers. Cubs looks like the play.

I am just going to bet a Parlay between
Cubs +138
Padres -134

paying +315
Nice Payoff IMO

[bigboydan]

peavy hasn't looked all that great this year so far IMG. my advice to you is to just bet the cubs game straight, if your going to play it that is.

[imgv94]

peavy hasn't looked all that great this year so far IMG. my advice to you is to just bet the cubs game straight, if your going to play it that is.

I played it really small.

Peavy has pitched 3 games.

ERA's of 1.29-18.00-2.57

I'll be forgiving of that one game he messed up.
Against the Rockies.

[Wassymac]

Good luck with your Cubs play Onlooker. I decided to go the other way tonight (hasn't worked out well for me so far this season but here we go).

[bigboydan]

what happen in the halo's/twins game?? the last score i seen in that game, was 8-4. now i see it's 10-8 halo's

[onlooker]

what happen in the halo's/twins game?? the last score i seen in that game, was 8-4. now i see it's 10-8 halo's

There was a Balk by Santana that lead to trouble. Everything went to sheit in that 6th after the balk. Needless to say, the Twins scored another 4 runs in it.

[bigboydan]

thanks for the update looker

[bigboydan]

10-9 angels now.

talk about a wild game we have here.

[bigboydan]

looks like baltimore returned the favor to the tribe tonight.

Cleveland 9
Baltimore 17

[Illusion]

I would say so.

[Razz]

Since I haven't gotten to bitch about anything today:

Rangers get a penetrating unearned run to tie the M's.

[bigboydan]

i caught that one razz as i was flipping channels.

[onlooker]

10-9 angels now.

talk about a wild game we have here.

Angels should of brought Shields in to begin the 7th. Donnelly didnt get it done.

[Wassymac]

Brewers have grabbed a couple insurance runs in the 8th

[Wassymac]

Make that 3 insurance runs....5-1 Brewers

[bigboydan]

Angels should of brought Shields in to begin the 7th. Donnelly didnt get it done.

i guess he wasn't doctoring up the ball tonight uh