[fifawcs]

I don't understand why. The dude had one start against cleveland. He is facing the Angels. The Ranger's offense has declined significantly in the second half.

[johnnymapalo]

I don't understand why. The dude had one start against cleveland. He is facing the Angels. The Ranger's offense has declined significantly in the second half.

I WAS GONNA BET THE RANGERS 1ST 5 BUT CHANGED MY MIND. i WILL DO THE OVER 9.5 INSTEAD..

[Sinister Cat]

+162 with Hamilton probable, and 3/4 of the Angels regular infield possibly injured. The starting pitchers for both teams are mediocre.

That's the way I see it..

[fifawcs]

Garland is not mediocre. And the Rangers have the worst pen. The Angels have a great pen.

[ryanXL977]

garland is absolutely mediocre dude
he is not good in any way shape or form. you should wtahc him pitch. he is no better than eveland

[element1286]

Garland is not mediocre. And the Rangers have the worst pen. The Angels have a great pen.

Garland is the definition of a mediocre MLB pitcher.

[fifawcs]

I'm telling u guys the Angels will win this. You guys don't know anything about Mccarthy.

[Sinister Cat]

I know he smoked the Yankees May '07 in NY when the rangers were +325

[element1286]

I'm telling u guys the Angels will win this. You guys don't know anything about Mccarthy.

McCarthy is a pretty solid pitcher, and is probably not that much worse than Garland, and has the potential to be better. He has some decent AAA numbers, and was a fast riser in the CWS organization. He also has decent career numbers for a 24 years old. He has had some command issues in the majors, but has very good stuff. I am not betting on this game, but I don't think the Rangers are a bad play at all.

[ryanXL977]

i would play tex here, if any
but mccarthy will go , what 3 innings max?

[ryanXL977]

i would ask you this fifa, why do you think garland is good? based upon?

[element1286]

i would play tex here, if any
but mccarthy will go , what 3 innings max?

He is on a pitch count for sure, but I don't know how far that would get him, he threw 76 last game, so it is probably 85-90 this time.

[ryanXL977]

i agree he is no worse than garland, but he does suck

[fifawcs]

I'm not saying Garland is good. i am saying that you all think Mccarthy is going to no hit the Angels. As Ryan stated in an earlier post, the guy will last 3 innings. Then it is the Rangers bullpen. That's is why they are +168. This isn't value. They are a road team with a crap bullpen versus the best team in baseball that just lost two of three to the A's.

[ryanXL977]

the rangers are no worse than oakland though, and you laid on oak vs weaver, who is better than garland

i mean, whats the difference?
obviously laa is better than tex by 1000000x, but i am not sure of the difference here vs your winning bet the other day

[fifawcs]

There is a big difference. As bad as u may think Braden is, he has been pretty decent as a starter. Also, the A's have the number 5 bullpen. Weaver also sucks. I don't think the Ranger's offense is as good as they were pre all-star break. That means that the A's are better than the Rangers.

[ryanXL977]

fair enough

[BadBeatBodog]

Pre-ASB: .816 OPS .324 BAbip
Post-ASB: .796 .313 BAbip

The offense has been .020 points worse but it was to be expected because of the high BAbip.

[ryanXL977]

no kinsler

[Kingctb27]

Pre-ASB: .816 OPS .324 BAbip
Post-ASB: .796 .313 BAbip

The offense has been .020 points worse but it was to be expected because of the high BAbip.

Most of that has to do with Bradley not being in the line up.

[ryanXL977]

and kinsler

ps cruz is garbage also

[BadBeatBodog]

And this is partly why I like the Rangers here:

McCarthy is a finesse fly ball pitcher. LAA versus:

Finesse: .721
Fly ball: .710
RHP: .730
Home: .744

Garland is a finesse ground ball pitcher. Texas versus:

Finesse: .843
GB: .829
RHP: .815
Road: .761

[BadBeatBodog]

Most of that has to do with Bradley not being in the line up.

It probably would've happened with or without him due to BAbip regression, although perhaps not a .020 point drop.

[ryanXL977]

kinsler

[BadBeatBodog]

Trust me guys, it's more the BAbip then the players. Kinsler:

Pre-ASB: .945 OPS .359 BAbip
Post-ASB: .717 OPS .255 BAbip

Even with Kinsler the overall numbers would have dropped sharply because his numbers were extremely inflated.

And the team that gives Bradley a large contract next year is crazy. He's still an injury-prone player and his numbers are Arlington and BAbip driven.

Home: 1.234 OPS .385 BAbip
Away: .868 OPS .397 BAbip

Even with an INSANELY high BAbip on the road, higher than at home even, he 'only' manages an .870 OPS. His 2008 BAbip of .391 is astronomically higher than his .322 career number.

[Sinister Cat]

Trust me guys, it's more the BAbip then the players. Kinsler:

Pre-ASB: .945 OPS .359 BAbip
Post-ASB: .717 OPS .255 BAbip

Even with Kinsler the overall numbers would have dropped sharply because his numbers were extremely inflated.

And the team that gives Bradley a large contract next year is crazy. He's still an injury-prone player and his numbers are Arlington and BAbip driven.

Home: 1.234 OPS .385 BAbip
Away: .868 OPS .397 BAbip

Even with an INSANELY high BAbip on the road, higher than at home even, he 'only' manages an .870 OPS. His 2008 BAbip of .391 is astronomically higher than his .322 career number.

Is it valid to look at BAbip for individual hitters like this? I mean, sure, a hitter can get lucky and hits can drop in-- but for example, Bradley has a much higher line drive rate this year than for his career, so most, if not all, of the increase in BABip can be attributed to this. And I'd think an increased line drive rate is due more to skill/"seeing the ball better" or whatever, rather than luck.

[element1286]

Is it valid to look at BAbip for individual hitters like this? I mean, sure, a hitter can get lucky and hits can drop in-- but for example, Bradley has a much higher line drive rate this year than for his career, so most, if not all, of the increase in BABip can be attributed to this. And I'd think an increased line drive rate is due more to skill/"seeing the ball better" or whatever, rather than luck.

Completely agree.

[I LUV (.) (.)]

have of angels line up is hurt

[Sinister Cat]

have of angels line up is hurt

It seems that unless they make a roster move, either guys are going to play hurt, or Juan Rivera will be in again at second base! I'm half-expecting to hear today that Eckstein or Scutaro has been traded to the Angels, but haven't heard anything yet...

[ryanXL977]

badbeats stats didnt show ole milton there did they

those stats are useless
they cannot be used for betting over the courseo f one year

[ryanXL977]

love garland!!

[fifawcs]

Just wait for the Ranger pen to come in.

[BadBeatBodog]

I am not 100% on this but a hitter's BAbip works the same as LD%; that is, while a hitter has a little more control over it than a pitcher (which is barely, if at all), there is an acceptable range and any large deviation within a year likely means regression should be expected. So yes, of course a higher LD% has to do with BAbip but if you look at Bradley's LD% over the years there is no consistency:

2004: 18.9%
2005: 22.7%
2006: 15.4%
2007: 23.5% w/ OAK, 16.4% w/ SD
2008: 24.2%

Of course you can use these stats for individual hitters, but I will admit other factors should be looked in to such as GB/FB, HR/F, LD%, etc... It is not as straightforward as it is for pitchers because hitters do have some control.

[ryanXL977]

he is a pretty up and down tempered dude
these are human beings, they have good days and bad days and fights with wives and hangovers

[ryanXL977]

Just wait for the Ranger pen to come in.

oh, it wont take the pen to blow this lead
mccarthy is crapola. but garland is a #4.5 starter too