[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[moses millsap]

Felix Hernandez escaped with minimal damage, but was not very sharp at all in his first start against Oakland despite the numbers.

[Wassymac]

Brewers are the play of the day IMO although I'll still be pullin' for the Redbirds

[bigboydan]

Felix Hernandez escaped with minimal damage, but was not very sharp at all in his first start against Oakland despite the numbers.

i'm considering the M's tomorrow myself bud.

[Wassymac]

The Cards bats have come to life the last couple days BBD and they are more than capable of winning with Soup on the hill (even if he struggles). Also, LaRussa won't be resting as many regulars as he typically would in a Game 3 since they had yesterday off. The Cards bullpen is well rested. The top of the order (Eck and Encarnacion) have finally figured out how to get on base in front of Pujols. Rolen is on a tear.

There I tried to talk you out of it but the value is with the Brew Crew tomorrow I'm afraid.

[mlwitchking]

since the bats have come to life, i feel in over for the brewers-cards. i was at the game tonight and the brewers kept on getting chances. sooner or later they will knock a whole bunch of runs in. also, with the cardinals bullpen suspect and no runs allowed tonight, i feel its about time that the cardinals bullpen serves up batting practice. because of the cardinals winning the last two, they very well may be overvalued, thus i have a slight lean to the brewers. (note: i have had a lean to the brewers the whole series, so my lean should be taken with a rock of salt.)

[Wassymac]

Brewers may have had chances tonight but thats just typical Marquis...a lot of singles...too many walks...but usually a few GIDP....he's an escape artist.

[Wassymac]

Also, Davis faced the Cards 5 times last year and did not make it out of the 5th inning in three of those starts. Suppan was 4-0 in 5 starts against the Brewers.

[mlwitchking]

lean royals on value and randy johnson's age. lean over on brewers-cardinals. lean on rockies (1. lost by 1 run. 2. division game. 3. home field advantage decreases as the series goes on.)

[Willie Bee]

First, good point by wassymac above regarding La Genius not resting his regulars this afternoon in St. Louis against the Brew Crew due to that goofy mid-series day off on Tuesday. I think it makes it easier for the Cards to go for a 3-game sweep in the series as opposed to when you play a team 3-straight days.



Los Angeles (D.Lowe) at Pittsburgh (Ol.Perez) – 12:35 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Slight chance of rain during the morning, a bit humid, cloudy with high of 75° and winds out of West at 10-15 MPH (out towards left).

UMPIRES: Derryl Cousins is behind the plate with home teams off to an 0-2 start in his games hits year. Had a slightly tight strike zone in 2005 with batters swatting 78 flies in his nearly 600 half-innings of work last season. Crew K has the most experience of any crew this year, with Cousins’ 27 years on the job second to crew chief Joe Brinkman’s 33. Cousin is both a California native and resident.

Derek Lowe is making his third start on the campaign, and working on just three days rest this time. He was raked in the Dodgers’ season opener, an 11-10 loss to Atlanta in LA, then ND’d Sunday in Philly when the Dodgers lost 6-3. Having thrown just over 150 pitches total in those two starts, the 3-days rest thing probably shouldn’t bother him though I wouldn’t look for him to go beyond 6 IP. He has not been a very good pitcher on the road or during the day the past few seasons, but is a perfect 3-0 in three starts opposite the Pirates since 2003 (2.37 ERA, 19 IP). He’s 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts at PNC Park. Lowe does well against Sean Casey, Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez (combined 1-for-16, 2 BB). Joe Randa (.290, HR, 31 AB) and Craig Wilson (.400, HR, 5 AB) are two that do well against Lowe.

Lefty Oliver Perez is also making his third start of the season, but has the normal four days of rest since he was cracked in Cincy last Saturday, allowing a pair of homers and eight runs on 86 pitches and being sent to the showers before the end of the fourth. He is 11-12 lifetime in 31 starts at PNC Park with a 3.64 ERA and 210 Ks in just over 185 innings. Against the Dodgers, Perez is 2-2 in five starts with a 2.94 ERA. Batters he won’t enjoy seeing come to the plate include Jose Cruz Jr (.556, 2 HR, 9 AB), Kenny Lofton (.429, 7 AB) and JD Drew (1-for-3, HR). He does well against Rafael Furcal (.125, 8 AB), and that could be key as always since keeping that leadoff man off the bases is so important.

My Play: I’m leaning to Lowe since he’s a groundball pitcher with the wind blowing out a bit. But the Bucs have been swatting the spheroid pretty well this week, so instead of betting on the winner I’m taking the -120 on over 8½ and will just sit back and root for the batter all afternoon.



Oakland (J.Blanton) at Minnesota (K.Lohse) – 1:10 p.m. ET
WEATHER: In the Metrodome with little chance of rain or wind, unless you account for spilled beers and the AC blowing.

UMPIRES: Mike Everitt, one of the junior members of Crew B, will call the plate and he was a pitcher’s friend in 2005 calling over 64% of the pitches strikes and batters clipping at just a .246 average with 64 homers in more than 600 half-innings last year.

Joe Blanton was very strong in his first and only start of the season so far, striking out six Mariners and working through the 8th-inning on just 99 pitches in Seattle six days ago. The husky righty from Tennessee has made just one start against the Twins, and it came at the HHH Dome with Blanton coming away the winner with seven good frames. The Twinkies have been just that against Blanton, with Justin Morneau (2-for-6, HR) the only one who seems to have a clue against him.

Kyle Lohse also made his only start of the year six days ago, but he did fare near as well as Blanton did in his only game action as the Tribe belted Lohse for 11 hits, including a Casey Blake homer, and handed Lohse an 11-6 loss. Lohse used 99 pitches and failed to get through the 5th-inning in that one. He has pitched better at the HHH Dome, going 16-14 in 43 career starts (4.34 ERA). But against Oakland, he is 0-2 in three starts with a 5.09 ERA, having trouble both finding the plate and keeping the ball in the park against Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez. Mark Ellis, Mark Kotsay and Jason Kendall are a combined 0-for-13 and never have reached base against Lohse.

My Play: The Twins have won two close ones in their first home series of the season, and they’re eager to get a sweep for the home crowd. The price is right on the Twins, +126, but I can’t see betting on Lohse even if he likes chunking at home. Gimme’ the Athletics in this getaway game.




New York (V.Zambrano) at Washington (L.Hernandez) – 1:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: One of the many hot Weather Channel babes said there was a 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy, temps in the mid-to-upper 70s with winds out of West at 10-20 MPH (in from left).

UMPIRES: Veteran Jerry Crawford, who chiefs Crew L and has 29 years on the job, will be in charge of balls & strikes. He has shown a tendency during his career and this season to have a bit of an inconsistent, somewhat ambulatory zone that, in the end, lends itself to more offense. There were 83 homers hit in his 476 half-innings of work in 2005, one of the highest ratios for the season.

Victor ‘The Other’ Zambrano is making his first start of the season after coming out of spring training with a left hammy strain. He has been a slow starter in the past (4-7, 15 April starts, 5.28 ERA), though that action was with the Devil Rays. He hates facing the Nats and pitching in DC, owning an 0-2 record in two career starts against Washington and going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four innings for his only start at RFK. He has seen Alfonso Soriano the most on this team, and the results are not good as Sori is hitting .419 lifetime with 2 HR in 31 AB. Zambrano has had good results against Nick Johnson (.235, 8 K, 8 BB, 17 AB) and Royce Clayton (0-for-5, 2 K).

Livan Hernandez, whom you will hear me refer to has Quarter Pounder, is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors today. He’s a throwback and one of the most dependable arms in the game. Plus he’s a pretty darn good batsman to boot. This is his third startamd he got roughes a bit last Saturday in Houston surrendering 12 hits in six frames. Having now chunked 113 and 111 pitches in his two outings, you don’t have to worry about this guy being overworked. Quarter Pounder has a solid record against the Mets (7-3, 15 starts, 3.75 ERA), but has found it difficult to win at RFK (17 starts, 7-8, 3.86, 13 HR, 124 IP). He is a known commodity to the New York hitters, with the eight Mets regulars having seen him between 22 and 54 at bats each. David Wright (.360, 3 HR, 25 AB) really gives him fits. Hernandez has held Carlos Delgado to a .241 AVG, but Delgado has taken him deep three times in 29 AB.

My Play: You need a crowbar and at least two big longshoremen to pry open my wallet for a wager against Quarter Pounder. And with Zambrano in effect still pitching spring training at this point in the season, you won’t get me to bet against Hernandez this time if you had a whole shift of longshoremen trying to loosen my purse strings. Wind blowing in, Nats not hitting and Hernandez doing pretty well during his career against the Mets, I’m taking the under 8½ for -110 even if Crawford is behind the plate.



Milwaukee (D.Davis) at St. Louis (J.Suppan) – 1:10 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Sunny, less-than-muggy for the Gateway to the West, highs in mid-80s with southerly winds 10-20 MPH (out to left-center).

UMPIRES: I have a bad attitude towards Bruce Froemming who will be behind the plate for this one, just thought I’d throw that out there to start with. He’s a condescending little man who suffers from what I refer to as ‘Napoleonic Syndrome.’ He was not that friendly to pitchers in 2005, nor was he necessarily their enemy. The chief of Crew J this year, he has so far shown a liberal strike zone with offense down in his games. Of course, that is prone to sudden change depending on the mood that Fat Eff might find himself in to start this one.

Southpaw Doug Davis takes the mound for the third time this season without a decision to show for his previous two starts. He pitched well in Milwaukee’s season opener against Pittsburgh, but did not have his A-game in five innings of work last Saturday at home versus the D-Backs. He has been a notoriously slow starter, and with some of his slop that should be expected since he simply is a better pitcher once he’s a bit worn down. In seven starts against the Cards since 2003, Davis is 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in 29 IP, allowing seven dingers and issuing 20 free passes. Like every other mortal pitcher, Davis struggles against Albert Pujols (.438, 2 HR, 5 BB, 16 AB), also coming up short against Jim Edmonds (.417, 2 HR, 12 AB) and Juan Encarnacion (.455, 11 AB). He has done well against David Eckstein and Scott Rolen who are hitting a combined .216 against Davis.

Jeff Suppan has never instilled any confidence in me despite having above-average success in the bigs. This is his second start of the year, and took the loss last Friday at Wrigley when he allowed all five Cubs runs in his 75-pitch, 5-IP outing. He is not a pitcher who has been affected by home-away, but he is a Brewers Killer with an 8-1 record in 10 starts against them covering 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. The only two hitters to give him much trouble in this lineup are Corey Koskie (.314, 35 AB, most in the AL) and Brady Clark (.409, 2 HR, 22 AB). Carlos Lee has two homers off Suppan, but is also hitting just .180 with 11 strikeouts in 50 career at bats. Geoff Jenkins (.176, 34 AB) and Rickie Weeks (.125, 8 AB) have also struggled against Suppan.

My Play: First start for both pitchers in Busch #3, obviously. One of my personal rules is to never bet on Suppan, and this would seem to be a perfect time to take the Brewers since it’s also tough for any team to sweep another as the Cards are shooting for in this contest. But with Suppan’s record against Milwaukee and Davis tossing BP to Phat Albert over his career, the smart money has to be on St. Louis even if it’s a -145 price.

[Illusion]

I'm leaning strongly towards the under in the Cin/CHC game even though the wind is blowing out.

[Alamorich]

How bout them Whitsox!!!!

[bigboydan]

How bout them Whitsox!!!!

there pounding detroit today.

[Alamorich]

Detroit pitcher Verlander pitched way over his head in his first start...figured he would get pounded today.

[moses millsap]

That error is going to cost us Milwaukee backers

[moses millsap]

Can't believe Wise got out of that, but glad he did

[moses millsap]

Cirillo can't lay down a sacrifice bunt

[moses millsap]

They bring in Kolb to face the top of the Cardinals lineup, game over.

[Winston Smith]

No worry, Izzy to the rescue.

[bigboydan]

Carlos Lee single handedly won us this game today, if the brewers hold on.

that over the wall catch that saved that home run ball is a must see on sportscenter tonight.

[moses millsap]

Carlos Lee single handedly won us this game today, if the brewers hold on.

that over the wall catch that saved that home run ball is a must see on sportscenter tonight.

Yeah, I saw that. The ball is carrying way out to left, we need to score another run here. Turnbow likes to get into jams.

Lee's catch on Edmonds' fly out was nice as well.

[bigboydan]

that Kolb is the worst. when he came in, i thought for sure we lost.

this game shouldn't even have been this close either

[Razz]

Damnit. Moehler just misses a 2-run HR, and the Reds make an error.

[moses millsap]

Leadoff walk and we're done, 3-0 already. F'n Turnbow.

[bigboydan]

sacrafice was good too

[bigboydan]

2 outs in the bottom of the 11th now.

[moses millsap]

Finally, phew...

[bigboydan]

brew crew wins

[bigboydan]

Finally, phew...

I told ya how many days ago who was gonna win this game

[moses millsap]

Vernon Wells hits a grand slam.

[bigboydan]

hey owned, i told you i felt confident

[moses millsap]

hey owned, i told you i felt confident

As did I back on Tuesday when we were discussing this series Nothing's safe with this Red Sox offense though, hope Lilly continues his winning ways against them.

[bigboydan]

well your right. nothing is safe at all, but i gotta like our chances.

[moses millsap]

That was a much needed DP with Papi and Manny coming up.

[bigboydan]

oh, don't i know it bud.