[BadBeatBodog]

I think Houston has a lot of value tomorrow; probably the best large dog.

Lets begin with the starting pitching matchup. If we concentrate on ERA and WHIP, it appears the Mets hold a distinct advantage there. Johan has a tasty 2.75 ERA and seems to be everything the Mets expected when they traded for him. Oswalt, on the other hand, is having a down year with a mediocre 4.28 ERA. But if we look at the more advanced metrics FIP and xFIP the matchup is actually very close. Despite the 2.75 ERA, Santana (3.73 FIP and 3.89 xFIP) is having a down year himself, comparable to Oswalt's (4.10 FIP and 3.72x FIP). That 3.73 FIP is the second highest of his career (last year it was 3.96) and the 3.89 xFIP is by far the highest. Going by xFIP, Oswalt is actually expected to be better going forwards.

So why is Santana having a down year? Well if we scan his stats we quickly see his K/9 are WAY down at 7.9 and his BB/9 are slightly up at 2.5. This has resulted in him being classified as an average power/finesse pitcher (walks and strikeouts per batters faced under 28% and above 24%) for the first time as a starter, rather than a no doubt power pitcher like he has been throughout his impressive career. On top of the heavily decreased strikeouts and slightly increased walks:

1) He's using the slider less frequently in two-strike and pitcher's counts against LHB
2) He's using the sinker less against righties in two-strike and pitcher's counts
3) His four-seam fastball and change-up have lost some horizontal movement
4) He's using the change-up less frequently against righties in two-strike and pitcher's counts
5) He's had an inconsistent release point

Bottom line is his ERA has been somewhat lucky this year and it should be in the 3's. Not a drastic change but one nonetheless.

Now that we have established the SP matchup as closer than it appears, lets focus on the rest of the teams. Houston as a team has a 0.50 Win Probability Added. New York's is much higher at 5.50. But all of Houston's negative WPA comes from the starting pitching (-5.31) while most of New York's positive WPA comes from, you guessed it, the starting pitching (3.58). According to WPA, Houston has a distinct advantage over NY in offense and bullpen, 5.81 WPA (2.92 and 2.89, respectively) to 1.92 (1.74 and 0.18, respectively). For this game, while NY has a slight advantage in SP according to FIP and xFIP, Houston has the overall advantage because of offense and bullpen.

Time to look at the SP vs. offensive matchups more closely. Santana, as I mentioned before, profiles as an average power/finesse pitcher with 26.8% of batters faced walked or struck out. His 1.08 GO/FO ratio makes him a groundball pitcher, if only barely (more than 1.08 is groundball while less than 0.83 is flyball). Houston versus:

Average P/F: .743 OPS
Groundball: .730 OPS
Lefties: .787 OPS
On the road: .710 OPS
Last 1 week: .707 OPS
Last 2 weeks: .826 OPS
Last 4 weeks: .818 OPS

Oswalt is also an average P/F groundball pitcher (25.5%; 1.72 GO/FO). New York versus:

Average P/F: .712 OPS
Groundball: .752 OPS
Righties: .750 OPS
At home: .781 OPS
Last 1 week: .729 OPS
Last 2 weeks: .782 OPS
Last 4 weeks: .785 OPS

Disclaimer: The way I've gone the past two days you should all disregard this information.

[wtt0315]

nice stats. I will say this. We have had trouble with houston in the past. But with that said johan is the better pitcher and the bullpen is the reason his win loss record is better. I believe without looking they have blown 3 or 4 of his games. Also the mets are hitting now and are alive as a team which is more important then any stat. most of the stats you gave where when santana and the mets were slumping as a whole. Might be value in betting the stros here but there is no value if you don't win.. Take mets -1.5 (-105)
Good luck on what you bet

[BadBeatBodog]

Houston outhits the Mets eight to four but can't manage to knock in a single run. Couldn't get a hit when it counted.

[Dashwood Clipper]

Oswalt was a stud............AFTER Schneiders 2 run jack

[BadBeatBodog]

What a frustrating game. How many times did Houston have runners on second and third and didn't get a hit? Doubling the opposing team's hit total and losing 3-0...

[jtuck]

Sometimes you can cap a game for an hour and look at it from every angle and still lose, its frustrating as hell. That being said there are some pitchers that i will almost always bet on at home and Johan is one of them

[wtt0315]

stats mean nothing. Ride streaks. all streaks come to a end but until then ride them. Mets are playing better then anyone right now and bullpen has actually came together of late

[ryanXL977]

cant fade johan in the second half
we have seen him do this for like 5 years!
i didnt bet the game and aint ripping your pick, but this is johan!!

[BadBeatBodog]

stats mean nothing. Ride streaks. all streaks come to a end but until then ride them. Mets are playing better then anyone right now and bullpen has actually came together of late

Stats are the only right way to cap sports. NY was just fortunate that two of their hits came back to back, one of them a home run, and the other two came in the same inning sandwiched around a wild pitch and sac bunt. Sometimes you get lucky and that was the Mets today.

[BadBeatBodog]

cant fade johan in the second half
we have seen him do this for like 5 years!
i didnt bet the game and aint ripping your pick, but this is johan!!

Ryan Johan is not the same pitcher. I laid it all out pretty clearly in the initial post. He has seen his xFIP steadily rise every year.