[Mr Handicapable]

I like Milw/Cubs Over 8.5 tonite! Wolf was garbage throwing 86 mph fastballs the other day & Zambrano will have troubles w/that lineup imo! Neither pen is too hot either?

[EXhoosier10]

I like Milw/Cubs Over 8.5 tonite! Wolf was garbage throwing 86 mph fastballs the other day & Zambrano will have troubles w/that lineup imo! Neither pen is too hot either?

The Cubs have a good pen as long as their winning. Marshall to Wood to Marmol, while not outstanding, is definitely above average. This means that if they're winning come the 7th inning, expect them to hold the majority of their leads. Brewers have also pitched pretty well the last 5 games. Wolf and Z could break the over themselves though.

I'm really not a big O/U player though unless the bullpens are tired (like the cubs game a few nights ago when Wood and Marmol were both out.

[EXhoosier10]

Was (+143) for 1u

Fade away

[EXhoosier10]

Pressing my luck.

Tor +116 for 1u!

[EXhoosier10]

C'mon Toronto bullpen!!

[EXhoosier10]

Solid hitting in the late innings off a tired Ervin Santana gets Toronto the win and gives me a 2-0 day +2u

Season
9-14 -9.805u

Getting a little more data to look at now and I've just about finished a simple model that takes into account batting order to hopefully give me a better judge of lineups and starting pitching.

[EXhoosier10]

I've got my eye on a couple games so far today. I'm looking at Seattle as a fade of Justin Masterson (line is currently Sea -116 with -according to VI- only 25% betting on them) as well as Ari with D. Hudson on the bump.

Seattle's TT is O3.5 as well.

[EXhoosier10]

Everybody is fading Javy Vazquez after his terrible start last week. I'm going against the line movement and saying he reverts back to his NL form. Good value for the better team against a slightly below average pitcher in Bud Norris.

Fla (-105) for .5u

[EXhoosier10]

No pick for the Pittsburgh game. I'm not sure how either team is going to respond to their extra innings affair last ngiht. Would have played Pittsburgh though if it weren't for yesterday.

[EXhoosier10]

Got a big play today on ARI on the D. Hudson train. 2u @ (-111)

[EXhoosier10]

Alright guys, sorry about the hiatus. I've been a bit too busy studying for my 3rd actuary exam to really have time to properly cap games and post as well. I just got done capping a full card only to realize that the card I was looking at was Thursday's and not tomorrow's. I had a decent day on this fake card, so maybe things will start to turn around.

I'll be capping for the next couple of weeks and then be in and out until my exam May 18th. With useful data starting to pile up though, expect to see a few more 2+ unit plays and hopefully I can grind back to +units before my exam.

For tomorrow, I've placed a couple bets already and will wait for at least 1 more trying to get a better line.

Colorado is coming off a double header and has used 3+ relievers in each of their last 3 games. Also, the rockies are flying from NY to Denver tonight after a double header. I'm expecting players to be a little tired after being in the sun all day. Chacin isn't the most efficient pitcher in terms of pitches/PA and only went more than 6 innings in 3 games in Coors last year. With a tired bullpen forced to throw 2+ innings tomorrow, I think there is a bit of value in the Cubs. I've only got this game for .5u right now, and may play team totals over depending on what the lines are.
For now, CHC (+140) for 0.5u

The other game I'm playing is SD @ HOU. Happ has been unimpressive this year and Harang isn't as good as his ERA shows. I think he's going to be surprised at how much pitching away from Petco really affects his 89mph fastball. Playing the OVER 8.5 (+100) for 1u

I'm waiting on a better line in AZ as well as LAA. I really like Weaver this year and I don't think people are quite ready to believe that he is the true ace he has shown that he is the past year. Both lines are moving in my favor since open, so hopefully I wake up to a nice bump in prices. Hope everyone has been making a nice profit this past week and on your card tomorrow

[EXhoosier10]

Well, got burned on the AZ game. With huge money on SF (90% according to VI), line moves from +105 to -105 for AZ. Oh well.

2.5u on AZ at (-105)
Laa (-128) for 1.5u

That's all for today. On my way to IU for the rest of the weekend for Little 500. Good luck to everyone today and the rest of the weekend.

[EXhoosier10]

Solid hitting in the late innings off a tired Ervin Santana gets Toronto the win and gives me a 2-0 day +2u

Season
9-14 -9.805u

Getting a little more data to look at now and I've just about finished a simple model that takes into account batting order to hopefully give me a better judge of lineups and starting pitching.

Everybody is fading Javy Vazquez after his terrible start last week. I'm going against the line movement and saying he reverts back to his NL form. Good value for the better team against a slightly below average pitcher in Bud Norris.

Fla (-105) for .5u

W +.5

Got a big play today on ARI on the D. Hudson train. 2u @ (-111)

L -2.22 ==== 1-1 -1.72

Alright guys, sorry about the hiatus. I've been a bit too busy studying for my 3rd actuary exam to really have time to properly cap games and post as well. I just got done capping a full card only to realize that the card I was looking at was Thursday's and not tomorrow's. I had a decent day on this fake card, so maybe things will start to turn around.

I'll be capping for the next couple of weeks and then be in and out until my exam May 18th. With useful data starting to pile up though, expect to see a few more 2+ unit plays and hopefully I can grind back to +units before my exam.

For tomorrow, I've placed a couple bets already and will wait for at least 1 more trying to get a better line.

Colorado is coming off a double header and has used 3+ relievers in each of their last 3 games. Also, the rockies are flying from NY to Denver tonight after a double header. I'm expecting players to be a little tired after being in the sun all day. Chacin isn't the most efficient pitcher in terms of pitches/PA and only went more than 6 innings in 3 games in Coors last year. With a tired bullpen forced to throw 2+ innings tomorrow, I think there is a bit of value in the Cubs. I've only got this game for .5u right now, and may play team totals over depending on what the lines are.
For now, CHC (+140) for 0.5u

The other game I'm playing is SD @ HOU. Happ has been unimpressive this year and Harang isn't as good as his ERA shows. I think he's going to be surprised at how much pitching away from Petco really affects his 89mph fastball. Playing the OVER 8.5 (+100) for 1u

I'm waiting on a better line in AZ as well as LAA. I really like Weaver this year and I don't think people are quite ready to believe that he is the true ace he has shown that he is the past year. Both lines are moving in my favor since open, so hopefully I wake up to a nice bump in prices. Hope everyone has been making a nice profit this past week and on your card tomorrow

Cubs - L -.5
sd @ hou - L -1 ----- 0-2 -1.5 ======= 1-3 -3.22

Well, got burned on the AZ game. With huge money on SF (90% according to VI), line moves from +105 to -105 for AZ. Oh well.

2.5u on AZ at (-105)
Laa (-128) for 1.5u

That's all for today. On my way to IU for the rest of the weekend for Little 500. Good luck to everyone today and the rest of the weekend.

L
W ------ 1-1 -1.125 ====== 2-4 -4.335

-----------------------------------------------------
Season
11-18 -14.140u

This just hasn't been working out whenever I post in the thread.

I went 4-1 on Monday, 6-0 yesterday, and so far, 3-0 today. Not getting much lovin in here anyways, so for the few that do look in here, I'll probably meander around in others threads until things cool off and I feel confident in posting fade material for you all again.