[ugabooga]

Thanks for making the effort man, this will make capping the games all that much more fun/thoughtful.

EDIT: ^ Aussie here too

[EXhoosier10]

Less than 2 weeks away until the season starts. I'm getting giddy!

[EXhoosier10]

Alright, we've got some moves that have happened in the past few days that have changed things a little bit. Rosters starting to shape out and some last minute moves that make the final 25 a little easier to see for each team. With that, here are some moves that might shake some things up in the NL Central:

Cubs released Carlos Silva
To take his spot, Andrew Cashner, who worked out of the bullpen last year and had sub 3.3 ERA's the past two years in the minors, will finally get his chance in the big leagues. He was the 19th overall pick by the Cubs in 2008 and had a fairly high ceiling coming into the 2010 season. He only pitched in ~110 innings last year, so if he does make it through the season as the #5 guy, expect him to start fading around the ~120-150 IP mark. Hopefully the Cubs won't let him pitch any more innings than 130, but if they do, prepare to be in fade mode.
------------------------------------
Brewers acquire Nyjer Morgan from the Nats
According to fangraphs, Morgan and current center fielder are relatively the same fielding-wise. Both are of the same mold athletically, but Morgan has shown he is a very capable hitter, something Gomez has never been able to say. Even though Morgan had a 22% LD% last year and coming into the season with an xBABIP of .315 (career BABIP of .336), he finished with a measly .304 BABIP, showing he was quite unlucky. Expect some more of those hits to fall this year and move him a lot closer to that .285 career BA. Assuming he can keep his head on straight throughout the season, Morgan can make a big impact and fill one of the two main holes (CF and SS) in the brewers offense. I definitely like this move for the Crew. (I guess a good season by Morgan would add about 1-2 wins for the Crew and looked into finally taking the OVER for TT wins this year, but at -130 and 85-86 wins being the norm, I don't think there is enough edge with the bet.)

Speaking of the Brewers, Greinke is targeting a late April return to the mound even though he is eligible to be taken off the DL on April 6. That should mean 2 or 3 starts missed by Zack. I haven't read who the 5th starter is going to be, so I can't give any opinions on that.

Catcher Jonathan Lucroy should be close to returning around opening day, but rotoworld says he'll probably start the season on the DL and come back soon. Lucroy hasn't been able to play in almost a month, with a fractured pinky on his throwing hand.

Corey Hart is expected to begin the season on th DL with a strained oblique. Both Kotsay and newly acquired Nyjer morgan are lefties, so I'm not sure who will be put in RF, but one of those two will fill in for Hart.

Sergio Mitre was acquired by the Brewers a week or so ago, but don't let that 3.3 ERA from last year fool you. He strikes out 4.8 per 9 and walks a little under 3 per 9. His FIP and xFIP last year were 4.7 and 4.3. With a poor defense behind him, expect his .226 BABIP against to shoot back up to .300 or so and his ERA to float back up into the mid-4s. DEFINITELY FADE MATERIAL.

Marcum has had shoulder stiffness last week but seems to have recovered after throwing a successful bullpen session.

Latroy Hawkins is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and will most likely begin the season on the DL.

--Read at of the bottom of post for my bet
------------------------------------
For the Reds, Bronson Arroyo has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, which has been known to linger and stay around longer than the flu. With that, I'll be keeping an eye on him coming into his first and second start of the season. Games #1 and 2 for the Reds are at home against the BrewCrew and then they get to face the Astros. I'd guess they'll be slight favorites against Gallardo and Marcum, maybe even PK's, but at home against HOU will probably give a good like of +140 to +160 for Houston. Definitely could be some good value there if Arroyo is still feeling sick come opening day and then pitches 3-4 days later.

Johnny Cueto has been sidelined since March 10 was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and has just begun a strengthening program to get his arm back in shape. With him and Homer Bailey, also out with a shoulder injury, Mike Leake and Sam LeClure will fill in with Travis Wood and Volquez rounding out the rotation. The Reds rotation started out being a little above average with good depth before the season, and that depth is already being tested to begin the season.
------------------------------------
Jason Castro (starting catcher for houston) is out for the season and Humberto Quintero / JR Towles will probably split duties behind the plate. Towles was a pretty good catching prospect a few years ago, but has fizzled out over the past few years. Looking at his stats, I don't expect him to ever reach those levels he hit at in the minors. An 11% LD rate with a 55% FB% is just awful, especially when you're only walking 3% of the time and striking out 25%.

Clint Barmes is out 4-6 weeks at SS and a capable backup in Jeff Keppinger is also out 6+ weeks with a foot injury. Angel Sanchez / Oswaldo Navarro are fighting for the starting job, and neither seem to be very good options.
------------------------------------
No new injuries besides Wainwright for the Cards and the Pirates seem to be healthy as well.
------------------------------------
------------------------------------
After reading all of the injuries for the Crew, I am starting to see a pretty big downside for that team. While I really like the Nyjer Morgan signing and expect him to be a big help, there is a major downside on this team. Greinke will miss 2-3 starts and will probably cost the team 1 win or so. Marcum having shoulder soreness this early could be a huge blow if it lingers. Rickie Weeks had groin soreness early in the spring and if he does in fact gets hurt like he has just about every other year, they will be forced to employ Craig Counsell full time. This Brewers team has a very good front line and is more than capable of winning the division and going places in the playoffs should everyone stay healthy. But a long term injury to one of their starters and a slow start to the season could force them to trade their big first basemen Prince Fielder before the allstar break. If one of these scenarios happen, the Crew could finish just a few games over .500 with such a lack of depth. I'm going to make my first bet of the season and go against the team I picked to win the Central and take the Brewers under 86.5 wins @ +100 for 3 units. Like I said, The Crew could easily beat 86.5 wins this if everyone stays healthy, but it should only take 1 long term injury to a make this guy a winner.

[EXhoosier10]

Lovin' that spam!

[nyplayer33]

hoosier, who do u like to win the central

[EXhoosier10]

I like the Brewers to take the division. There is a big downside with them because of injury risks and Prince possibly getting traded (I took the under 86.5 @ +100 because of this), but if everyone stays healthy, they have a top 3 offense and a top 5 pitching staff in the NL and can do a lot of damage.

If you're asking me who I'd bet on, at the odds I get:

Crew +190
Reds +200
Cards +400
Cubs +600
Stros +3500
Bucs +4000


I'd think the most value lies with the Cubs. If Pena and Ramirez have good to great seasons (as I expect they will, both were unlucky last year), they could be an 85 win team. That plus a big payroll could allow the Cubs to make a move at the deadline to perhaps sneak into the playoffs at a nice value.

Other than the Cubs though, I don't think there is value in either the Reds or Brewers at those prices.

I haven't read much about who the Cards 5th start will be all year, + Jaime Garcia shouldn't be nearly as good as he was last year, and I don't think they finish much over 85 wins, especially because they shouldn't be buyers during the season (Pujols is going to demand a big contract, and they can't afford to pay anyone else big money).

[EXhoosier10]

To go along with that, the Reds and Brewers prices changed when Wainwright went down for the year. The Cubs have been +600 the entire preseason even though the Cards are no longer that much better than them.

[EXhoosier10]

Looks like Lucroy for the brewers will be out for the first 1-2 weeks.

In the central, we've got two games coming up on Friday.
Mil @ Cin
SD @ StL

I dont' see any value in StL, but also don't expect them to lose. Probably will have to pass on that game.
I've got a lean on the Cincinnati game, but will see what kind of new info comes up before I decide if I want action.

At this point, I'm not liking any of the other games either.

****Remember, this is day 1 of what is going to be a 181 day season. As much as you want action and start the season with a bang, there is no reliable information to base decisions off of, and I wouldn't recommend making too many bets over 1 unit.

[EXhoosier10]

hoping to get a little more movement before I make bet #1.

[Bcatswin]

What info you looking for Hoosier

[D. Brackets]

The best Brewer site out there is Brewerfan.net
http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/directory - quick link to the forums....

For what its worth as a Brewer fan I have the Cubs being the surprise team of the year in the NL and could steal the Central.... depending on injuries of course....

[EXhoosier10]

What info you looking for Hoosier

Mostly lineups. It doesn't look like the line is budging much, so waiting until lineups are posted might be the way I go tomorrow.

[EXhoosier10]

Well, I'm locking it in now.

With two righties on the mound in a game that boasts the 2 best offenses in the NL, I'm looking at bullpens, defense, and hitting handedness to separate these two teams.

Defensive edge absolutely goes to Cincinnati.
Bullpen edge goes to Cincinnati with Aroldis ready to throw gas and the Brewers without Parra and Hawkins leaving them with a young and unproven relief corps.
Handedness goes to Cincinnati with Votto and Bruce as lefties and the Crew with only Fielder.

With the Brewers bullpen in question and the Reds at home, as a slight favorite, I think there is a slight edge with the Reds.

Again, this is only the first game with no real data to go on, so there is no reason to get too carried away with bet sizes.
Reds -115 for 1u

[EXhoosier10]

Got a great 9th inning by Axford to get me my first win of the year.

1-0 +1u

[EXhoosier10]

Seeing as this is an NL Central thread, I might as well give my thoughts on every game, even if I don't bet them.
Today there are 4 games on the schedule:
Hou +230 @ Phi
Pit +160 @ Chi -180

As we saw yesterday, huge favorites are not guarantees this early in the season. For that reason alone, I'd lean Houston +230, but they are bad enough that I don't think I will ever trust their offense.
For now, I'm not sure about the Cubbies game. Early lean is on Pit, but I've been working on my spreadsheet all morning and haven't been able to look at the actual numbers yet.

[EXhoosier10]

Public is pounding the White Sox, but at least we're getting movement. slight wind blowing in from left center should make it a bit tougher for right handers to pull the ball out, which hurts the Indians a bit more than the Sox, + the Sox have a much better 'pen.

White Sox @ -107 for 1u

Arizona Diamondback @ +185 for 1u

Blue Jays @ -121 for 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Public is pounding the White Sox, but at least we're getting movement. slight wind blowing in from left center should make it a bit tougher for right handers to pull the ball out, which hurts the Indians a bit more than the Sox, + the Sox have a much better 'pen.

White Sox @ -107 for 1u

Arizona Diamondback @ +185 for 1u

Blue Jays @ -121 for 0.5u

So far so good with the Chi Sox and Diamondbacks both getting wins today, one in blowout fashion, the other in a nail-biter in extras after the 'pen almost blew the lead with a few errors late. Guaranteed winning day though and still waiting the Jays result.

Today (1 pending)
2-0 +2.85

Season (1 pending)
3-0 +3.85

[EXhoosier10]

Toronto made it 3-0 and 4-0 for yesterday and the season. +3.35 and +4.35.

Looking at Minnesota and florida today

[EXhoosier10]

Looks like Washington is having some huuuge Reverse Line Movement today. Going from +145 to +123 now with only 33% on them. Anyone know what's up? Lannan isn't more than a #3 starter on a good day and Hanson is a top 20 starter in the league with a better offense. Can someone talk me out of this bet on atlanta?

[EXhoosier10]

Didn't realize it was so late. Games starting in a few minutes, but I'm riding on Minnesota and Liriano to bounce back after a big loss yesterday (still put up 8 hits even though they only scored 3 runs)

Minnesota Twins @ -117 for 2u!!

[EXhoosier10]

And two more for today.

Milwaukee @ -102 for 2u and
Houston @ +220 for 1u

Good luck today everyone.

[EXhoosier10]

Tough day yesterday, but I got some breaks a couple games the day before, so things are evening out. Went out last night and haven't looked at today's card too much. Might come up with some plays, but nothin for now.

Yesterday
0-3 -6.38

Season
3-3 -2.03

[d2bets]

I think you need to be more biased. I think Cubs have an excellent shot at the division, whilst the Cards have very little chance. The key for the Cubs is Ramirez/Soriano/Pena. If they can have better season that last season and revert toward their career numbers, then the Cubs will win a lot. Add to them Soto, Byrd and one of the best young players in Castro and the lineup can be good. The pitching is the strength. Forget about the record last season. That team had bad vibes and are upgraded this season with Garza, Wood, Pena. Quade has a better command of this team than Piniella. Everyone is cautious about having Cubs expectations because they've burned before, but low expectations here could be a good thing.

[EXhoosier10]

I think you need to be more biased. I think Cubs have an excellent shot at the division, whilst the Cards have very little chance. The key for the Cubs is Ramirez/Soriano/Pena. If they can have better season that last season and revert toward their career numbers, then the Cubs will win a lot. Add to them Soto, Byrd and one of the best young players in Castro and the lineup can be good. The pitching is the strength. Forget about the record last season. That team had bad vibes and are upgraded this season with Garza, Wood, Pena. Quade has a better command of this team than Piniella. Everyone is cautious about having Cubs expectations because they've burned before, but low expectations here could be a good thing.

I'm not sure how you can say the Cards have very little chance. With Wainwright they were favored to win the division (or at least close to it). That loss will cost them somewhere around 2-4 wins while Holliday being out only really changes that by half a win at most. Variance usually is about 5 wins /season which means with a little luck, the Cards could very well take the division.

With that being said, the Cubs are in no way out of contention this year. As I said earlier, the Cubs +600 for the division was probably the best value bet out of the bunch. However, expecting Aramis/Soriano/Pena to all improve on last season's miserable numbers might be asking a bit too much. Soriano is clearly in a declining stage of his career and, while no longer being great, still had a very productive year at the plate in 2010. I think the CUbs can in fact compete, but I just don't expect them to be much better than slightly above league average. If someone can manage a huge season (think 5+ WAR), the Cubs could very easily be right in the thick of things come September... Big assumption to make though. And as long as they are -160 or worse every game, there is a very slim chance that I will ever be betting on them, because they do not warrant that price.
===================================
On to today.... The Cubs are facing off against the Diamondbacks this afternoon @ Wrigley and Milwaukee opens up at home against Atlanta. Pittsburgh is also taking on St. Louis after a late winner @ wrigley yesterday afternoon.

I'd lean Cubs @ -160, Beachy and the Braves @ -106, and StL @ -140, however I really don't see much value in any of those games. The D-Backs are coming off a trip to Colorado that saw yesterday's game get rained out while the CUbs just blew a 9th inning save to fall to the pirates. The Cubs's bullpen should be without Marmol and Woody after they both pitched in back to back games. Stephen Drew will probably be out of the lineup again and Saunders isn't very good, especially with the wind that should be gusting in Wrigley. Maybe consider a FF with the Cubs, but I won't go full game with their closer and setup man both pitching the last two days.

I don't know enough about Beachy to make an informed decision on the ATL game.

Not sure I can say I like either Lohse or Morton in the last game. Both should be mediocre at best with Morton probably having a slight edge. Mccutch might not play again today and Yadier should be able to shut down whatever running game that Pittsburgh may have with Mccutch and Tabata.

It's still early in the season and there is very little data to work with. I'm in no rush to make a boatload of plays.

[d2bets]

2 to 4 games difference from Wainright. That seems on the very low end to me. Cards were 43-24 last 2 seasons in his start. Let's call it 22-12 in 34 starts. You're assuming his replacement would be anywhere from 18-16 to 20-14. We're basically talking about whomever the Cards 5th starter is. Well if the Cards 5th starters win 18 to 20 then you can hand them the division right now. I am really not buying that at all. I'd assume they're worst starter would be under .500. I'll be generous and say 16-18. That's 6 games. I would estimate Wainright to be a 6 to 8 game difference, which could easily be the difference, although I still think they won't be that close. I have the Cards at about 78 to 80 wins instead of 84 to 86 with Wainright.

[EXhoosier10]

I probably did go a little low with 2-4 wins. I think meeting in themiddle at 4-6 would probably be pretty close to correct. Fangraphs had him at 6.1 WAR last year. Here's the definition of WAR, just in case.

WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format

via Fangraphs Library

You can guess that the replacement starter might be somewhere between 0-2 wins and you get 4-6 wins lost by the injury.

[EXhoosier10]

ugh, marmol has thrown 7 straight balls.

[EXhoosier10]

And the Cubbies get it done even with Marmol being a bit shaky. The Cubs 'pen should come into play tomorrow as Cashner is a high K-high BB kind of pitcher. He wasn't very sharp in his last start in ST either. With an aggressive Arizona team on top of the nerves he should be feeling in his first MLB start after beating out Carlos Silva, I'm leaning towards the D-backs tomorrow.

Also, I'm looking at Gallardo tomorrow over Lowe.

[EXhoosier10]

Alrighty, we got a rather big card for today. Starting in the central.

Fading Cashner and the lack of bullpen today for the Cubbies. Pena is not in the starting lineup with a sore thumb leaving Colvin to make his first pro start at first + Marmol and Woody are unavailable. 10mph wind blowing out to right

Arizona @ Chicago Cubs
Ari (+133) for 1u
Ari TT Over 4 (-120) for 2u
Ari -1.5 (+210) for 1u
Game Over 9 (-120) for 1u

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I like the Crew to steal their first win at home tonight. Gallardo, while a little wild in his first start, is a much better pitcher than Derek Lowe. On top of that, we should see Craig Counsell in for Yuniesky Betancourt (Counsell is a career 10 for 28 against LOwe) plus Nyjer Morgan over Carlos Gomez (Morgan is 15 for 28). Throw that together with a lot of doubters now that the Brewers have started the season 0-4 and I see a perfect opportunity to jump on at -104. (note- I layed 1 unit at -104 earlier this morning and went to put another one down at posting time and the line jumped back up to -115; hence -109.5)

Atlanta @ Milwaukee
Mil (-109.5) for 2x

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Nothing for Hou @ Cin
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As long as the Cards aren't hitting, I feel comfortable taking a live dog with some #5 starters going. Got them last night when lines came out.

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis
Pit (+141) for 1.5u

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A couple odd ball games that I also took are:
Dodgers (-104) for 1u
Angels (-108) for 1u
Seattle (+155) for 1u

to everyone today

[bacon22]

Good start for the Reds. I think the divison is going to come down between the Reds and Brewer's. I like the Cards on paper but Berkman looks older every game and could be a liability on defense. Overall, I think starting pitching has gotten a lot deeper in the division this year. The division winner could go far in the playoffs.

[EXhoosier10]

Agreed with just about everything you said bacon

[EXhoosier10]

Put 1 more unit on the D-backs when I saw that the Cubs are using Koyie Hill in place of Soto and Barney over Dewitt when the wind is blowing out and a better power hitter would lead to more runs.

so that makes my bet on ARI
ARI (+133 and +128) for 1x at each price....... ARI (+130.5) for 2x

[d33m]

Hey EX, I haven't committed to over yet since it moved to 9.5 at my book, might just throw another unit on the d-backs ML

[EXhoosier10]

Ya.... The line opened at over 9 +105 and quickly jumped to -120 and then -125 a few minutes later. 9.5 at +110 odds might be worth it, but i'm guessing you're getting EVEN or something like that.

I'd lean ARI TT over 4 instead of the total over 9.5, but if you aren't able to get either of those at good odds, just lay off. No reason to force a good bet at bad odds.

[d33m]

Exactly what i was thinking, they are offering 9.5 -105 and i am not feeling that line, I'd rather put that unit on the ML and only worry about them winning.