[ShowMeDaMoney]

I've crushed baseball for either four or five years straight. Last year I went up an amazing 40 units in the first month and a half of baseball - I cashed out up about 60 units at the All Star Break and didn't go back until the playoffs at which point I won another $1300

Sounds great right? Well, in past years I've been able to not dump my profits in other sports... but this year I did lose a nice stack of cash playing the NBA (I went 0-16 starting about five bets into the year) and also a bit in the NFL.

Seems like most people have a difficult time with the MLB, I just concentrate on about a dozen teams, and really watch what they do day in and day out. I like to ride the momentum of teams, and guess when they are about to get hot... and fade teams that are cold.

Last year I had an amazing run with taking the Phillies -1.5 (I know, sucker bet) but these guys hit at close to 70% of the time I played their run line. I'll be looking at them again this year, though their lines will likely be inflated even more.

I'll also stick with my same game plan I've had the last 2-3 years fading CC Sabathia almost every start he makes in the first two months of baseball. You get +160 or more almost everytime, and last year he was 5-6 to start the year and the year prior he was 6-5. In 08 CC went 4-8 in his 1st 12 starts.

That's 15-19 in the first two months of baseball since going to NYY - I expect the same trend to continue this year.

It sounds simplistic, and it probably is, but it's nice to find some trends that have been a clear cut winner over a decent same size.

At +130 odds overall, which I bet on average it was higher... hell I remember hitting some +190-+210 against him in the last few years... even still, at +130, you've gained close to ten units using this system... all in the first 8 weeks of baseball!

[ShowMeDaMoney]

The more I think about it I may just hammer every game of his first 12 for two units no matter what.

Not only has he had a bad record, the Yankees lost by 2 or more runs in 14 of his 19 losses in the first two months - crazy! Maybe some reverse run lines should be played this time around!

Does bet jam offer reverse run lines? I'm shocked I didn't notice the R\L trend until now.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

2010 Average Line Fading CC Sabathia in 1st Two Months of Ball = +180

CC went 5-6 in said period. Even if you take out the +320 fade against Baltimore, you still got +152 on average

2009 Average Line Fading CC Sabathia in 1st Two Months of Ball = +179

CC went 6-5 in said period.

2008 Average Line Fading CC Sabathia in 1st Two Months of Ball (Still on Cleveland) = +153

CC went 4-8 in said period.


In short, CC Sabathia is an absolute, blind must fade for the first two months of baseball in my opinion.

L3 Yrs :

15-19

Average pay out : +170!!!!!! And that's with one entire year on Cleveland, it woulda been higher had he been on NYY the whole time.

It's a 17.3 u winner in the last three years even if you didn't touch a single reverse run line.

Thinking this year two units on ML, and 1 unit on Reverse R\L automatic in first two months. I do not see this trend failing us this year. Even at 50% we'll turn three or so unit profit (on ML only)

Anyone else taggin along? Can't wait for bases!!!

[kellen2811]

Who else do you follow, you said you bet the phillies and against CC. What teams give you a reason to follow, what specifically are you looking for?

[ShowMeDaMoney]

I mostly look at starting pitching comparisons, L10 for hitting cats, and love playing a team on a win streak vs a team on a lose streak.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

My HD crashed but I had a website last year that sorted all possible hitting categories for the L5, L10, L15, season

I used it a lot. When laying high juice (anything above -130) I need to see that the SP has been good in his last few starts, and I look to play a team that is hitting among the elite in the MLB for their last ten games played.

I really like playing teams that have below average offense typically, but have been hitting the ball very well in their L10.

[Pauulzcappin]

Can you run those numbers on Roy Oswalt until the all-star break? I think it's pretty profitable especially now he's in Philly. Guy is mr. September.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Can you run those numbers on Roy Oswalt until the all-star break? I think it's pretty profitable especially now he's in Philly. Guy is mr. September.

Took me a little while to do Sabathia. Just doing it manually from yahoo, and then comparing closing numbers to scoresandodds.com

I'll just do it now....

Oswalt L3 Yrs in May\April 14-20

It's a bit more difficult to run the #s on Oswalt, because he was actually a large dog in alot of these early games. He was +200 or more twice in the first month of 08 alone - vs Lincecum and Hallday. Either way, he'll be another pitcher I'll be looking closely at for the first two months of ball. He should be a pretty heavy favorite most of the time in Philly

[Pauulzcappin]

Yep, exactly my point. He usually has dreadful starts to the season but pitchers very well after all-star break -- it's not just a trend for last year, it has been like this for a while.

This thread is very interesting. I'll take some of the free time I have this week to look for this. There's a couple of 1st/2nd half pitchers that I'll be checking to direct my bets to start the season. Especially against favorites.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Paul let's take a close look at pitchers in this thread over the next two to three weeks. Wasn't trying to blow smoke up anyone's ass saying I've won every year in the last five, I just feel like this game can be broken into patterns more than other sports. I'm starting research way earlier than I did last year, and my units will be bigger than they've ever been. In my opinion the first three-four months are generally the easiest times to take it to the books.

Was looking at Lincecum earlier...

L3Y (this is how we will refer to last three years for pitchers, I'll be taking a look at alot of them. Are you good at making spreadsheets Paul? I haven't usually done many of them, I find the information easy enough to access in this form. Anyhow, Lincecum loves April

L3Y 12-4 2.05 ERA - Lights out but the Giants more often than not won the game by one run.

Beckett 6.18 ERA in April L3Y. The Sox won many of those games, but Josh generally has a tough time getting started. I really hope he is back to form this year, or even close ot form, hell if he can pitch 4.0 ball all year we will love him!!!

Re: CC Sabathia.... can anyone comment on reverse run line prices?

Let's say the dog against CC Sabathia is +173 (which was our average for L3Y) What would the reverse run line pay on NYY's opponent? I haven't played reverse run lines much at all, but after taking a real close look at CC, as I already said, I may play the reverse run line every game he starts in the first two months. Would a plus +173 dog pay around +300 on a rev r\l or am I way off?

[LLXC]

Baseball is definitely my favorite sport to wager.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Yep, exactly my point. He usually has dreadful starts to the season but pitchers very well after all-star break -- it's not just a trend for last year, it has been like this for a while.

This thread is very interesting. I'll take some of the free time I have this week to look for this. There's a couple of 1st/2nd half pitchers that I'll be checking to direct my bets to start the season. Especially against favorites.

Even at +130, and I expect his Average Price Fading to be much higher, he yields a nice profit in both April and May if he goes 6-5 or something like that. That said, despite his bad win loss in april and may he has pitched some decent ball L3Y. ERA is 3.67, outside of 2008 he had a sub 3.0 ERA every month!

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Baseball is definitely my favorite sport to wager.

It's by far the easiest for me, which I find a bit odd because everyone else I talk to says they cant win in bases to save their lives.

We got some old SBR forum vets in this thread, let's compile some good trends right here. I like to get aggresive right at the start, before the odd's makers adjust.

[mlb]

I like that CC trend ... will be adding it to my repertoire most likely


would like to devote some free time to looking for these trends as well ...

going to be a little different tho with Oswalt in Philly cuz he will have a completely different offense but then again we wont need that many team loses because his odds will be tremendously high

[Pauulzcappin]

I like that CC trend ... will be adding it to my repertoire most likely would like to devote some free time to looking for these trends as well ... going to be a little different tho with Oswalt in Philly cuz he will have a completely different offense but then again we wont need that many team loses because his odds will be tremendously high

We'll get some tasty lines against the Fish, probably pounding the fukk out of it.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

I like that CC trend ... will be adding it to my repertoire most likely


would like to devote some free time to looking for these trends as well ...

going to be a little different tho with Oswalt in Philly cuz he will have a completely different offense but then again we wont need that many team loses because his odds will be tremendously high

nice to find you in here MLB - was looking at your thread earlier today. I like a few of your systems... I look alot at L3 WHIP as well.

I'll be looking to fade Oswalt as well, but CC in particular will be an automatic unit play fading him in his first 11 or so starts. I didn't get my reverse run line question answered earlier. Let's say a team is +170 vs CC, what can I expect to get paid on the reverse run line?

Like I said earlier, alot of CC's early season struggles end in the Yankees losing by 2 or more - I'm considering a half unit fade on it for his first 11 starts to go along with the standard one unit on his opponent.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Let's assume we got +300 on reverse run line fading CC in his 34 starts in the first two months of baseball.

14X3= 42
20X1 = 20
__________________

+22 units, about 7 units a season, or 3.5 units per month - not bad!!!!

Even if he goes 7-4 against the reverse run line we will turn a nice profit.

[Bartmeister]

Good info - I cant wait for bases to get ere. Thanks

[Regul8er]

An interesting one I came across is Justin Verlander. I have not captured the lines, so maybe you could do this ShowMeDaMoney when you get a chance. But here are Verlander's April numbers the past 3 seasons:

2010 - 5 Starts, 5.1 Inn Per Start, 1-2 Record, 5.53 ERA, 3 Starts of 4+ Runs
2009 - 5 Starts, 5.2 Inn Per Start, 1-2 Record, 6.75 ERA, 3 Starts of 4+ Runs
2008 - 6 Starts, 6.0 Inn Per Start, 1-4 Record, 6.50 ERA, 4 Starts of 4+ Runs


Based on these number, Justin seems to be a guy who heats up with the weather. 3-7 Record, with a +6 ERA with him giving up 4+ runs 63% of the time. With Verlander being one of the best pitchers in the MLB and playing on a solid Tigers team who continues to be a public favorite should result in good fade material.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

An interesting one I came across is Justin Verlander. I have not captured the lines, so maybe you could do this ShowMeDaMoney when you get a chance. But here are Verlander's April numbers the past 3 seasons:

2010 - 5 Starts, 5.1 Inn Per Start, 1-2 Record, 5.53 ERA, 3 Starts of 4+ Runs
2009 - 5 Starts, 5.2 Inn Per Start, 1-2 Record, 6.75 ERA, 3 Starts of 4+ Runs
2008 - 6 Starts, 6.0 Inn Per Start, 1-4 Record, 6.50 ERA, 4 Starts of 4+ Runs


Based on these number, Justin seems to be a guy who heats up with the weather. 3-7 Record, with a +6 ERA with him giving up 4+ runs 63% of the time. With Verlander being one of the best pitchers in the MLB and playing on a solid Tigers team who continues to be a public favorite should result in good fade material.

Not seeing a ton of value with Verlander. With CC I ran the game's outcome because the Yankees always have inflated prices. I only ran Verlander's fade price on games that he got an L. That said, they didn't win any games that he got the loss for, so it doesn't matter a ton.


Avg Fade Price 2010: +115
Avg Fade Price 2009: +104
Avg Fade Price 2008: +127

Let it be noted it happened to match up against great pitchers in 2010 in April, even still, I'm looking for pitchers that are consistently >+140 and lose about 60% of the time. The Tigers are actually 6-4 with Verlander on the mound in April L2Y.

From now on, I will refer to Average FAde Price as AFPx (x = year)

Can anyone else name the pitcher's that receive the biggest juice in baseball? I'd like to take a look at some more, but thurs far I'm really only seeing a bunch of value with CC, partially because he plays for the Yankees.

[BettingWizard]

if you can't win at baseball, then it's time to hang it up. Easily, the most beatable sport, and the only other sport that comes close is NCAAB

[Regul8er]

Another one worth researching might be Matt Cain.

2010 - Team Record (1-3)
2009 - Team Record (2-2)
2008 - Team Record (2-4)
2007 - Team Record (1-4)
2006 - Team Record (1-4)

That's 7-17 over the past five years, for a pitcher who typically gets juiced pretty high, especially at home. I know he wasn't the pitcher 4 or 5 years ago that he is today, but he was still a solid arm for the Giants.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Another one worth researching might be Matt Cain.

2010 - Team Record (1-3)
2009 - Team Record (2-2)
2008 - Team Record (2-4)
2007 - Team Record (1-4)
2006 - Team Record (1-4)

That's 7-17 over the past five years, for a pitcher who typically gets juiced pretty high, especially at home. I know he wasn't the pitcher 4 or 5 years ago that he is today, but he was still a solid arm for the Giants.

Cain's Losses in April of 2010 : +190 (Bet on Pirates) +105 +106 - these numbers of course represent the price you got playing AGAINST Matt Cain.

he pitched 3.8 ball in April of 10 but the Giants couldn't get him any runs.

didn't run the other years. The easiest way to do it is bring up espn.com stats - go to game log, and have scoresandodds.com in another window - pin point the losses... go to that date on scores and odds.com and look for the closing price.

[AbeFroman]

Just read through this.. Good stuff guys!

I have some friends that are pretty well versed in Access and SQL, and I am not all that far behind. I am going to talk with them and see if we can design a program to run these numbers instead of having to do it manually. Stay tuned!

[TheNew]

Good stuff...

Im curious on the CC system, dont you take into consideration his opposing pitchers whip/era etc before "blindly" betting them? I mean the Yanks offense can certainly ruin many #2's & #3's and CC can still give up 5 runs. It would seem logical even at +170 and up before blindly betting say the Royals & Sean O'Sullivan taking the mound. L3 is one thing but now is now. And would you adjust/proceed your system if CC comes out of the gate 5-0 with a 2.90 era?

Keep the talk going~

[Sawyer]

Nice stuff here. Can't wait for baseball..

[jorge1]

showme, sawyer, gents, good evening..wanna dip into this discussion if its okay with you showmedamoney -

the CC numbers are good...nice trend, and honestly Id consider playing it this year when the odds are right. There are SOOO many angles to look at in bases...

I am a HUGE numbers and theory guy and have really put soooo much thought into investment strategy this offseason...also put together several excels to thorw around numbers...


So many things to follow, but in general this is my approach this year: no reason to lay juice, proven to me DAY IN AND DAY OUT OF BASES last several seasons...i like betting ARIZONA at home when they are huge dogs...teams for some crazy reason struggle there althouggh they are garbage...

Rockies in the late season..no doubt rockies when in the RACE are batting machines...DELAROSA, where you at my dawg! I look at rockies alot late in the season.

Looking to fade phillies early on when they are huge faves, like -160 plus, which they will be alot with all that pitching, and all that noise they make in the news...

I think NYY will be cheaper than usual early this year..not much hype on them, so gotta see if worth it.

FADE TB DEFINETELY..they are depleted and have these two big name guys comin in (Manny & Damo) and honestly, the noise will be to our FADING advantage...they lost half the freaking team this year and somehow no one notices? wtf...

I look at these big hitting teams and like betting overs EARLY...its been the pitcher of the year in 2010, and this year pitching in my opinion will be better, but Sluggin comes early in my opinion...

as far as pitching is concerned, i learned this last year...WHENEVER SOME RANDOM NO NAME CUBAN DUDE comes up to pitch his FIRST GAME EVER and we think, OH OVER! EASY...WRONG! i had the numbers figured out (not in front of me now) but it was UNBELIEVABLE what random no name rookie pitchers have been doing these last few years...

well, sorry for random rambling, but just wanted to start dicussion somewhere here...good luck..will try the CC thing though!

[Frostware]

Yep can't wait for this season!

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Good stuff...

Im curious on the CC system, dont you take into consideration his opposing pitchers whip/era etc before "blindly" betting them? I mean the Yanks offense can certainly ruin many #2's & #3's and CC can still give up 5 runs. It would seem logical even at +170 and up before blindly betting say the Royals & Sean O'Sullivan taking the mound. L3 is one thing but now is now. And would you adjust/proceed your system if CC comes out of the gate 5-0 with a 2.90 era?

Keep the talk going~

His overall record in April and May indicates to me that fading him blindly will be a system that ends up in the positive. No reason to mess with trying to pick and choose games, a game or two will likely be the difference between making money, and losing money. Ya feel me?

If I'm staying disciplined, I won't adjust my system. If he comes out of the game 5-0 with a 2.9 ERA, I would assume he's about to tank a few starts because historically he's been very bad in April and May. If he breaks what appears to be a career trend this year, oh well...I lose some money, but I'm willing to gamble he won't. Couple that with the fact that the Yankees lines are already inflated, and I think we will win some money here.

Remember... at +170 odds, even if the Yankees only lose 40% of the games he starts, we end up in the positive. He's only finished above .500 once in the last four years, I'm willing to take the chance he doesn't smoke us early.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

gettin closer! anyone else jumping on the CC Fade Machine? I'm considering 1 unit fading him, .5 units reverse run line! Woot woot!!!

[Regul8er]

Ill probably jump on board. Whether is be closed-minded or simply ignorant, I will not be playing any favorites this season. The dogs bark more in baseball then any other sports (at least it seems that way) and I can see it being profitable if you pick dogs in good spots.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

reports are that CC is in camp in far better condition than he ever has been before (shocking, a contract year)

He said he feels much better than he has in years....even still, I think he will start slow.

[ebbearsfb1]

good luck should be interesting

[daneault23]

I know CC has lost a bunch of weight this offseason, so it will be interesting to see how he does in the start of the season with less baggage.

[sheffield77]

thanks for the info man