1. #1
    Pauulzcappin
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    Paul's 2011 MLB thread.

    We are still a bit more than 2 months away from the start of the oficial regular season but I can't seem to wait anymore to create this thread.

    I had a very good season last year with MLB and lately I have been looking back on the plays and the mistakes I made which caused me to lose money on certain situations, since this was re-evaluated and behind, I welcome everyone to my 2011 thread.

    Everyone is welcome to join, especially my friend to talk about baseball only -- don't wanna deal with drama about a play losing or poster's grudges against others.

    I already put a unit on 5 different teams to win the world series because I thought they presented value to go far in the season so I can get at least a chance to hedge.

    Chicago White Sox +3201

    White Sox resigned slugger Paul Konerko and catcher AJ Pierzynski along with free-agent Adam Dunn who is a major pick-up for their lineup that should form one of the best 3-4-5 with Konerko & Alex Rios.

    They acquired free-agent relievers Jesse Crain and Will Ohman who was one of their worst problems in the 2nd half. Thornton should be the closer with Crain/Santos/Ohman as the 7th inning/setup guys for the White Sox who will also have starting pitcher JAke Peavy back to this season.

    Oakland Athletics +3500

    I am not happy that I missed some value in the A's because this line moved the day before I placed my wager from +4000, it's currently at +3300 on Pinnacle.

    Oakland had the best rotation in the AL last season but they fell short on making the playoffs because their lineup just couldn't produce enough runs to back their pitcher adding that to some bullpen trouble.

    Well, they improved all of that this season. Their rotation is more mature and should continue the success they had in 2011.

    They got outfielders Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and designated hitter Hideki Matsui-san. They are all a MAJOR IMPROVEMENT and I cannot stress this more, over Rajai Davis, Jeremy Hermida and Jack Cust. They are all better hitters in avg and pop, that was much needed in this lineup.

    The bullpen was also a problem and they did very well on that category: Picked up Grant Balfort and Brian Fuentes who could close in most of the teams around the league. Also picked up a couple more relievers and starter Rich Harden, who despite being injury prone, is a big improvement over Vin Mazzaro if healthy.

    So I think Oakland has a great chance of winning the pennant this year.

    Milwaukee Brewers +6500

    Brewers had one of the strongest lineups in the game in 2010 and they underachieved in the NL Central. I expect it to be different this year.

    They picked-up two very good pitchers in Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke which will give them one of the best 1-2-3 punch in the MLB along with Yovani Gallardo. Combine them with Randy Wolf and possibly Carl Capuano who ended the season in a high-note and you have a very solid rotation.

    Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder will be on the last year of their contract, which means they will be playing for money and that's usually when players perform the best (see Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, among others).

    Also wagered on St. Louis CArdinals at +2136 and the Texas RAngers at +2326.



    So here's to a profitable season to everyone!

  2. #2
    Pauulzcappin
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    I apologize for any spelling mistake, couldn't be bothered to double check.

  3. #3
    Metalhead
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    Nice picks on the futures. I might sprinkle some on the WSox, Cardinals and Tigers. What book did you find the +6500 on Milwaukee?

  4. #4
    Lint Pockets
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    might as well just throw your money away, Red Sox taking it all in 2011.

  5. #5
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metalhead View Post
    Nice picks on the futures. I might sprinkle some on the WSox, Cardinals and Tigers. What book did you find the +6500 on Milwaukee?
    All wagers were made in Pinnacle. I believe the Tigers might be a bit overvalued this season.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lint Pockets View Post
    might as well just throw your money away, Red Sox taking it all in 2011.
    We'll see.

  6. #6
    JMobile
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    I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.

  7. #7
    onetrickpony
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMobile View Post
    I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.
    yeah new faces might take awhile to mesh

    paul: i dont see the brewers making any noise, the cards have been there, they get freese back at 3b which really hurt us offensively towards the end of the season. waino, carp, and garcia are better than the brewers 3. the lineup should get a jolt if berkman can produce as expected, he is also back in the nl central which should help. i expect the reds to fall apart, last year was a fluke.

  8. #8
    Metalhead
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    These futures move so damn fast, before I asked I checked pinnacle and they were already down to +4200.

  9. #9
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMobile View Post
    I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.
    Good fade with Lackey or Matsuzaka on the mound. Same thing with the Yanks and Mitre.

    Quote Originally Posted by onetrickpony View Post
    yeah new faces might take awhile to mesh paul: i dont see the brewers making any noise, the cards have been there, they get freese back at 3b which really hurt us offensively towards the end of the season. waino, carp, and garcia are better than the brewers 3. the lineup should get a jolt if berkman can produce as expected, he is also back in the nl central which should help. i expect the reds to fall apart, last year was a fluke.
    They are a good young team, but the NL Central got better. I expect the Reds to finish 3rd this year. I see value on the brewers at +6500. You can argue the Yanks will finish better but there's no value at +600ish.



    Quote Originally Posted by Metalhead View Post
    These futures move so damn fast, before I asked I checked pinnacle and they were already down to +4200.
    Meh, so true. I think someone dropped a ton on the A's before I placed my wager.

  10. #10
    Pauulzcappin
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    Things you should know about last season

    Of course we are not in 2010, but there are important stats from last season that should help giving us a clue on a starting point to the upcoming season.

    TOP 5 HOME REFS (Using at least 25 appereances as a filter)


    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8336.html 28-5
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8369.html 26-8
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8359.html 26-10
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8405.html 18-7
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8397.html 18-7


    TOP 5 AWAY REFS


    Adrian Johnson 21-13
    CB Bucknor (arguably the worst ump overall) 21-13
    Bill Welke 18-12
    Angel Hernandez 21-14
    Mike DiMuro 14-20

    TOP 5 OVER REFS



    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8480.html 18-9
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8349.html 21-12
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8347.html 19-11
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8415.html 17-10
    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8398.html 20-12.
    .
    .
    Jerry Layne 11-20
    Doug Eddings 10-20
    Jim Wolf 10-21
    James Hoye 9-25
    Greg Gibson 7-24

  11. #11
    azn624
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    good luck this season Paul

  12. #12
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by azn624 View Post
    good luck this season Paul
    Thanks az.

  13. #13
    Pauulzcappin
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    I can't believe spring training starts this week!

    Looking forward to watch the games

  14. #14
    oakas
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    Have to agree with you on the Oakland A's.

    They really improved on their everyday line-up.

    Look for them to trade one of their middle relief pitchers for another hitter.

  15. #15
    Pauulzcappin
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    I will have a spring training wager for today, the units used for spring training are 5 times smaller than the ones used for regular season since there's no reason for going crazy over it.

  16. #16
    Pauulzcappin
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    Yankees -122 2U
    OVER 10 -133 1U
    Rays -1.5 +117 1U

  17. #17
    Pauulzcappin
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    I have decided to lay off spring training wagering. It's too early and teams are testing DOuble-A relievers which caused me a loss on the Yankees/Phillies game.

    I'll be watching a couple of games to see how pitchers and hitters are, especially physically and mechanically.

    I saw Cahill had 1/3 inning which he gave up many runs, guess this starts are normal.

  18. #18
    Pauulzcappin
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    2 weeks to regular season.

  19. #19
    mlb
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    Can't wait. ... I lick at every other sport

  20. #20
    ROFLcopter
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    Good luck this season Paul. Looking forward to starting my thread also

  21. #21
    Pauulzcappin
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    One week to opening day. We are very close now.

  22. #22
    Pauulzcappin
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    Good timing for baseball! Will have plays possibly.

  23. #23
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    Good luck this season Paul..

  24. #24
    Pauulzcappin
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    Forgot to put my Yankees bet in last night...

    Good start for the Brewers

    Volquez is a gascan

  25. #25
    Anthonyg7
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    GL today Paul

  26. #26
    Pauulzcappin
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    Thanks tony

  27. #27
    Pauulzcappin
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    1st wager of the season (all wagers are w/ listed pitchers):

    LA Angels of Anaheim -1.5 +114 1U

  28. #28
    Pauulzcappin
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    Bases loaded and Angels get nothing. That's why I am gonna watch a lot less games this year.

  29. #29
    Pauulzcappin
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    Fernando Rodney closing the game... oh boy!

  30. #30
    Pauulzcappin
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    Alright, good start. Not playing tonight's game even though I have a small lean on the Dodgers.

  31. #31
    Pauulzcappin
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    Colorado TT over 4.5 -114 1.5U

  32. #32
    Pauulzcappin
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    Unreal how Brandon Lyon still has a job lol

  33. #33
    ROFLcopter
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    Forgot to book that Rockies TT over GL bro

  34. #34
    7secondsOrLess
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    gl paul u kill bases

  35. #35
    pacocn
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    brandon lyon cost me big time today
    just like axford did u yesterday, i am noticing
    trends 2 days into the season

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