on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[Gndias]

i think this closes the case....

[on3]

I think on3 should post the plays as early as possible, so we can perhaps get the best line as possible.

the thing is though, i dont need to post the plays. you already know all of the plays. the only VALUE to me posting is the labby line and detailing out money management. that is it. if a team opens up at -170, you already know it's a play. if a team opens at -143, you already know my rule on how to lean one way or the other.

[alexknyc]

Wow.

The sense of entitlement is astounding. On3 posts when he posts. And we should all be mindful that he doesn't owe us a thing.

If you don't like waiting for On3, the rules are posted. Go find them.

[NoHero]

I think on3 should post the plays as early as possible, so we can perhaps get the best line as possible.

...If your serious, shame on you. on3 doesn't owe you anything.

[SlickRick1382]

That kid always rubbed me the wrong way ....

[on3]

i dont know if i would call it entitlement. people like the system, they care about the system. they like the thread, and they are trying to make it perfect. i have no problems with that. its just that there is no way it will be perfect and there will always be issues. you just hope to have more money tomorrow than you have today.

[Gndias]

lets focus on the game...those detroid bastards are down 4

[J.M. Disciple]

...If your serious, shame on you. on3 doesn't owe you anything.

As on3 said we already know the plays and he is just there to show us the money management behind it. The post I made was more towards the other people who care about getting the exact plays as on3 does.

I have more wins and losses then on3 so far this season because as he said if you want to do a -130 favorite at home go ahead and do so. I run my labby lines different then on3 and include more plays then on3 does. If he post or not I really do not care because I already know the plays.

I was just trying to help other people get the plays as soon as possible. No one in here is forcing on3 to post early, we can request it all we want, but its up to him to do it if he chooses. Just like no one forces us to bet the same amounts or play the same way on3 does. Its up to each individual to play the system as he chooses. On3 just lays out 1 of many methods of playing it. You can filter it however you want.

Also we can post and ask whatever we want in this thread. its a public thread, so feel free to do as you wish. Its on3's thread, but everyone has their own right to do whatever they wish. Its probably best just to be respectful of certain things asked.

Also no one should take anything personal in this thread. No one is forcing you to bet and if you do not like someone ignore them its that simple.

on to tomorrow.
Good Luck
JMD

[xgame]

On3 always is the best.

[CrazyCarl]

CLARIFYING POST:

everyone in this thread knows (or should know) the premise of the system. you know what triggers a play and what doesnt. if your book has tampa (or whatever team) as a -200 favorite, go ahead and play it, there is no harm chasing a good team at home when you consider the labby rules.

i explained how i decide on whether or not a borderline team becomes a play and that is based on the o/u 9 filter. to me, that is the best risk/reward method i have. if you want to take more risk, then do so, again, no harm in chasing a good team at home -- just manage your bank roll.

at the end of the day, the only thing i am doing is making that UNITS: +XX figure get bigger and bigger, week by week. and since i am posting the plays, running the labby, adjusting the rules, EVERYTHING is colored by my bias. i just hope that most of you respect my opinions and biases and trust that the units will keep growing.

if someone wants to open up an "opening favorite -130 favorite, super agressive system" thread -- go ahead. no one is stopping you. you all know the rules and can play the system however you wish, a few units one way or the other will not break this system. but if you trust me and my money management, then follow the thread and stop with the banter.

All of this commotion because I posted what the potential plays were last night. ~.~

If you read my post and decided to play Tampa because they opened at or above -145 on some books, you won. Rizz also had this as a play. Calm down guys, I wasn't trying to take over On3's thread (as he posted in his next post -- was just trying to help and I'm glad he understands this), and I don't think anyone else, such as JMD, was, either.

My comment about fading the Royals was just an added personal opinion, and I made it very clear that Cleveland was not a play (at least at the time) in the post by saying they opened at -130. I said I'm playing Cleveland tonight on top of the system plays even if the line doesn't change, and I don't think that's so bad to say. Not that it means that it was definitely the best decision in the world, but Cleveland did cash.

Since I get busy during the middle of the day, I like to put in my bets early, and I know some others do as well. I was just posting the potential plays for the day early on so people could make their own decision on how to play them if they wanted to. I guess I won't do this again even though I would appreciate it if I were the one who didn't understand/didn't want to go find the plays for the day. I can't even believe all of this arguing stemmed from posting what the plays for tomorrow seemed to be and telling them they could decide to act on this or wait for On3's post to make it official. I couldn't of even imagined all of this negativity coming from that, but here it is. And for all the "cluttered thread" complainers, all of the arguing about this added much more clutter to the thread than anything I or anyone else could single-handedly do in here.

But anyhow, sorry, and of course On3 is doing us all a favor by running the system here and I will continue to praise him for it. I appreciated people in the other threads such as the John Morrison threads helping out and posting possible plays early, working together for improvements, etc., but I guess it's frowned upon here.

[J.M. Disciple]

Det only play tomorrow.

[O]

Good luck to all!!! Let's just win some money!!

[oklahoma]

Not often we're playing dogs in this system. The plus odds look good. Bol tomorrow

[LoneStar]

Det only play tomorrow.

go head and play DET tomorrow you're likely to see the same results, King Felix is lights-out son

[on3]

System record 23-0-0; 6-0-0
Units +15.5
1 unit = $20

4/24

#24 -- seattle @ DET +105 (B)

Game 1 win = 13-10; 4-2
Game 2 win = 8-2; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

15-22-21-46
x-10-10-44
10-10-10-10

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-15-x

DET bet 64

[imzdeals]

damn.....hate going against felix

[domi]

Glo sweet go det

[J.M. Disciple]

Detroit should of been lights out today vs Sea, but you never know... I just know system produces 60% in general, so skipping any of the plays is usually bad idea when in general they will all show a profit. soooo00oo0 unpredictable at times.

One thing I wanted to bring up about 5dimes is that when you get your bet in early they have the ML in the reduced section! so Detroit would be +100 in regular MLB and +103 in other section. Then in the afternoon they do not offer the ML in the reduced section.

[Alki]

Thanks On3.
Really appreciate what you do here.
I understand your system but often am too busy to run personal lab lines. Therefore I look for your posts - since this is your thread - and follow along as I have done all last year as well. I understand all of the extrapolations that others may want to incorporate, but as you have so well stated, it's all about the units growing and your dedication to a strict interpretation of the rules of this system. Thanks.

[thelimit0310]

4/2 Method
Not the Official system!

First off I would just like to acknowledge that the Opening Fav system is not broken. This has been stated by me and others and it's true - following On3's labby will give you success. I created this method for people who either do not want to go through the steps of managing a labby or are having trouble learning and wish to use an easier method that still gives great results. So, while long term this method may even produce a good amount more units than the labby way, (many seasons using 4/2 or the filtered 5/2 were +90 units) there is nothing wrong with using the labby. It is not my wish to detract from the work TheRizz and On3 have done, but rather to add to the pot they've created.

New Filters

There are 3 new filters added for this way-to-play. These filters must be used regardless of which variation of this method you use.

1. DO NOT play games that start before 4/25
2. DO NOT play games that start after 9/20 (this effectively makes your season 4/25-9/20 every year)
3. If you start a series and the B or C bet for the series in question has a line of -300 or more, it is best to either skip the series or play -runs. Even if you are mid series, it is best to just take the loss and stop. These high fav games didn't lose often or even frequently, but at that level the risk is no where near the reward.

Way-To-Play

There are 2 ways to play this method - the filtered or non-filtered way. Regardless of which way you choose you must use the 3 new filters mentioned above! YOU SKIP THE A BET IN THIS METHOD!

Filtered: This is the most efficient way to play. When an A game comes up, check to see if it passes the O/U filter of 9. Note this but skip the A bet! If the A bet loses, and the A game passed the O/U filter, then B and C bets are open for play. You would then bet to win 4 units on the B bet and if that loses then bet to win net 2 units on the C (that's recovering your lost units and then +2). If the C bet loses then the series is over as a loss.
The total unit count for this method was +444.77, an average of +55.6 units per season. Only 1 season in 8 backtested years went negative and even then only by -9 units. Not exactly a BR killer. This way is best for those who want clean, easy, consistent growth without hassle. Note: If your bankroll is a little larger, you should check out the 5/2 method.

Non-Filtered: This provides more total units than the filtered version (although less than the filtered 5/2) at the expense of more plays and more hassle with larger and more frequent losses. I would not recommend this way despite it winning more units, as it fluctuates too much. It lacks the easy and consistent growth of the filtered way. The only difference here is that you play any B or C game, the play does not need to pass the A bet O/U filter of 9. Though you still skip the A bet!
The total unit count for this method was +502.51, an average of +62.8 units per season. In this method 3seasons out of 8 went negative. Again while it does have a higher unit count you will have more trouble getting there, If you crave more units but want to keep efficiency check out the 5/2 method.

Variations

There are 2 variations to this method. The 5/2 method and the labby+ method. Both variations put more of your bankroll at risk but in turn have the potential to maximize your profit.

5/2 Filtered: The best way if you have a larger BR. It is best you only play 5/2 on games that pass the O/U filter of 9. I also recommend you only play this method if you have a larger bankroll and can handle the higher losses that come from it. The principle is still the same, just play to win 5 units on the B bet (only if the A bet loses and passes the O/U filter!) and net 2 on C. There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high. This is the best way to play if your BR can handle the ~7 extra units lost per loss.
The total unit count for this method was +531.8, an average of +66.5 units per season. Since this should only be used the filtered way, this method only had 1 losing season (just like the filtered way) and only by -11 units. Again, this is the absolute best way if you can handle the extra units per loss.

Labby+: This isn't so much a way to play as it is an add-on to the method itself. This variation capitalizes on the fact that the labby is still a great way to play this system. Essentially you play this method by playing A,B, and C games on the labby just as on3 does. But in addition also run the filtered way to play on the B and C games. Essentially having two different yet successful methods feeding off each other and giving you even more units without adding additional risk to either the labby or filtered 4/2. This variation is for those with bigger BRs who don't mind running the labby but at the same time wish to supplement it with the 4/2 method. Keep in mind you can have a large amount of money in play if the lines get bad on your labby.


Quick way-to-play summation (filtered way)
1. Check teams that are starting a 3 or more game homestand. See if they open at -145 or higher, note the O/U score.
2. If that A bet loses, and the O/U score was 9 or higher, it is now a play
3. On the B bet, place a wager to win 4 units
4. If the B bet loses, place a wager on the C bet to win net 2 units. Series is over after a win or C bet loss.

Special thanks to both TheRizz and On3

[thelimit0310]

Rereading through the last page now and I apologize if my method post is only adding to the recent clutter of the thread. I just wanted to get it out there for the people who were waiting for it. If you have any questions on the method or want any individual season results, PM me. DO NOT clutter On3's thread with questions. They will go unanswered if you do not PM me.

On3 if my post becomes a problem in your thread I will remove it at your request.

[Gndias]

all of that looks nice but you should open your own thread...

[on3]

thanks limit. i appreciate all the hard work and time. if you want to start a new thread it is up to you, i dont mind you staying in this thread. the only thing i recommend is if my daily post gets buried (20+ new posts after my post) is that someone bumps it so no one is lost.

combined with what dark matter had written earlier -- maybe combining the 4/2 (5/2) with the C bet RL could ramp up the units.

limit -- in your backtest, what results did the RL/ML difference amount to? specifically on the C bet.

[thelimit0310]

No reason to open up my own thread, just wanted to make that post for people who wanted another way to play. I'm not going to be posting plays or unit amounts.

On3 most of my testing was strictly ML for lowest amount of losses, only times I took RL as a factor was when B or C bets had a line of -300 or higher. I'm not sure I have what you're looking for.

[eric14tsui]

Thanks all the hard work, limit.

Cant wait for the Det game. Anyone has the link?

[Gndias]

sorry only this one

http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/121014/1/watch-detroit-tigers-vs-seattle-mariners.html

[tb1984]

Hope that no rain out for the DET game.

[on3]

No reason to open up my own thread, just wanted to make that post for people who wanted another way to play. I'm not going to be posting plays or unit amounts.

On3 most of my testing was strictly ML for lowest amount of losses, only times I took RL as a factor was when B or C bets had a line of -300 or higher. I'm not sure I have what you're looking for.

also, did you test include home teams only? or both home and road? im thinking that road teams that meet the o/u9 filter would also be pretty tasty.

i think im going to run with the 5/2 as a supplement with the C bets being RL.

[dlunc3]

det -185 tomorrow... big bet for us

[bauerranch]

Thanks for everyones help!

[eric14tsui]

Sad day for the Det. Look forward to tmr already.

[LoneStar]

go head and play DET tomorrow you're likely to see the same results, King Felix is lights-out son

9/26 winner KC/CLE Over 9 +105

[cactuar]

Sad day for the Det. Look forward to tmr already.

Yea, not even close

[swordsandtequila]

Originally Posted by LoneStar
go head and play DET tomorrow you're likely to see the same results, King Felix is lights-out son

9/26 winner KC/CLE Over 9 +105

What's your point? We didn't play DET because it was a great matchup; it's part of the system. Not playing the system if you pick and choose as you please. Son.

[tb1984]

go head and play DET tomorrow you're likely to see the same results, King Felix is lights-out son

9/26 winner KC/CLE Over 9 +105

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Hey, no need to pat yourself in the back. If you want people to kiss your behind, create a new thread, and don't be a troll in this thread.