on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**swordsandtequila** · 04-17-12, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by oklahoma

Just to be sure, we're playing this system based on opening lines right? If a game opens around -135 and goes up past -145 I dont think that counts as a play.

It can; I believe on3 checks games that are borderline before posting final picks, if they qualify we play them. Might wait for confirmation on that.

**Douchebag50** · 04-17-12, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Possible Bets for 4/17/2012
Blue Jays vs Rays
mariners vs indians
marlins vs cubs
brewers vs dodgers
cardinals vs reds

Official bets:
NYY (B) (-235) Filtered and unfiltered (2 bets)
ATL (B) (-106)

NOtes:
Mia is at -168 right now so that will be official over / Under 7
Tor is at -139 so might be a play later o/u 8
Sea (+113) no play
Mil (-124) no play
STL (-120) no play

total of 5 bets tomorrow with NYY having 2 bets on them.

Good luck ladies.

So what are the amounts to play for? will give points for this info...

**dlunc3** · 04-17-12, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by Douchebag50

So what are the amounts to play for? will give points for this info...

on3 will post the official amounts sometime before gametime...

I would advise you to normally try to bet these games as early as you can... as it seems heavy home favorites get pounded by the public. For example, I was able to get nyy -230 last night... they are up to -255 on some books now. I didnt put a full amount on them yet since I dont know what the exact labby number will be, but I did put close to 2 units on them assuming that the labby number will be in that range. Braves game is also moving...

**jturn49** · 04-17-12, 01:10 PM

That's how I understood it Oklahoma, but I'm waiting to see what on3 does with it.

**CrazyCarl** · 04-17-12, 01:13 PM

Toronto is hovering from 140-148 depending on the book, so they very well may be considered a play. The total is at 9 in most places so probably filtered if they are a play. I think I will personally put in the ticket but not sure if on3 will play them or not.

**Douchebag50** · 04-17-12, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

on3 will post the official amounts sometime before gametime...

I would advise you to normally try to bet these games as early as you can... as it seems heavy home favorites get pounded by the public. For example, I was able to get nyy -230 last night... they are up to -255 on some books now. I didnt put a full amount on them yet since I dont know what the exact labby number will be, but I did put close to 2 units on them assuming that the labby number will be in that range. Braves game is also moving...

we would need the amounts to earlier for that....:-)

**dlunc3** · 04-17-12, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Douchebag50

we would need the amounts to earlier for that....:-)

yea no doubt... but you know we have definite bets on ny and on atl... and you know the bets will be at least for 1.5 units+... so might as well put at least 1.5 units on them early to take advantage of the favorable lines

**Mosley** · 04-17-12, 01:48 PM

Thanks I will try to figure this out so it isn't so chinese going forward!

**on3** · 04-17-12, 01:52 PM

i was waiting for the TOR game to see what happened to the line. for today, toronto is a NO play.

this is a grey area and usually the o/u filter sways me one way or the other. if a game starts above -145 and suffers a 20 cent drop, i usually make it a no play. if a game starts under -145 and creeps up, but is not significantly above -145 then i look to the o/u. if the o/u is 9 or higher, i will make it a play. if it is under (like today, 8.5), then i lean to the no play.

System record 16-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +5.5
1 unit = $20

4/17

#17 -- ny mets @ ATL -110 (B)
#18 -- minnesota @ NYY -260/-120 (B) -- play RL
#20 -- chicago @ MIA -170 (A) -- o/u 7

Game 1 win = 11-8; 3-2
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

x-27-27-54 (shifted to even out)
x-x-54-54
x-x-x-x

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-37

ATL to win 54
NYY to win 54
MIA to win 54

NYY to win 47 (filtered)

**CrazyCarl** · 04-17-12, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by on3

i was waiting for the TOR game to see what happened to the line. for today, toronto is a NO play.

this is a grey area and usually the o/u filter sways me one way or the other. if a game starts above -145 and suffers a 20 cent drop, i usually make it a no play. if a game starts under -145 and creeps up, but is not significantly above -145 then i look to the o/u. if the o/u is 9 or higher, i will make it a play. if it is under (like today, 8.5), then i lean to the no play.

Thanks for explaining.

**dlunc3** · 04-17-12, 04:09 PM

teixiera out tonight with the flu... not happy to see that

**Gndias** · 04-17-12, 04:50 PM

flu? what a pussie.....we have jeter and a-rod..no worries!!!!

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-12, 05:59 PM

For those playing the exact numbers as on3 be careful because your juice on the previous game could be different then his. Run your own labby lines to know the exact amount you should be betting.

**WVU9494** · 04-17-12, 06:43 PM

Let's go yanks!!! Playing a $100 martingale system the juice on this series is adding up fast.

**darkmatter117** · 04-17-12, 07:22 PM

I've finished my 2007 backtest and the numbers differ considerably from therizz's backtest. Perhaps we used different websites (I used Covers), or perhaps he was using different conditions since he had just started the system at the time. Either way, here's what I have:

Unfiltered, ML only (215-17)
A bets: 139-93 (59.9%)
B bets: 56-37 (60.2%)
C bets: 20-17 (54.1%)

Filtered, ML only (125-9)
A bets: 85-50 (63.0%)
B bets: 31-19 (62.0%)
C bets: 10-9 (52.6%)

Unfiltered, ML only, stopping at the end of August (178-13)
A bets: 121-70 (63.4%)
B bets: 41-29 (58.6%)
C bets: 16-13 (55.2%)

Filtered, ML only, stopping at the end of August (102-6)
A bets: 73-35 (67.6%)
B bets: 20-15 (57.1%)
C bets: 9-6 (60.0%)

**darkmatter117** · 04-17-12, 07:30 PM

I'm a bit concerned that therizz's backtest found 33 more plays and four fewer losses than my backtest, but as I said, I don't know how he conducted his. There were several lines that were close but not at or above -145 that I excluded.

Playing the R/L on all C bets would add two unfiltered losses, both of which occurred before September. I haven't done the unit calculations yet, so I'm not sure if it would be worth the juice you'd save if you incurred two additional losses.

**darkmatter117** · 04-17-12, 07:58 PM

Is there a way to calculate the expected losses using Labby lines if A & B bets are at -200 (ML) and C bets are at +100 (R/L)? I'm estimating it's around 9 units/loss, so if each win earns 1 unit, the filtered system through August would have earned 48 units in 2007.

**Gndias** · 04-17-12, 08:04 PM

yankeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssss

**CrazyCarl** · 04-17-12, 08:09 PM

I played Toronto as a filtered play since the total was actually at 9 at many books at the time. Seems to be paying off.

**Gndias** · 04-17-12, 08:12 PM

looking good also

**oklahoma** · 04-17-12, 09:08 PM

Boom

**WVU9494** · 04-17-12, 09:09 PM

Nice night. I LOVE phils over6.5 tonight. Have it large.

**CrazyCarl** · 04-17-12, 09:09 PM

7-0 in baseball so far for me. Ridiculous lol.

**soul786** · 04-17-12, 09:15 PM

Book the Yankees play for a win!

**cactuar** · 04-17-12, 09:15 PM

I accidentally took NYY -1.5 luckily it paid off lol

**CrazyCarl** · 04-17-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by soul786

Book the Yankees play for a win!

And Miami and Atlanta. 4-0 if you were playing NYY twice for filters.

For the guy that played the RL, I think on3 did as well.

**volkmannthad** · 04-17-12, 09:23 PM

4-0 day! BOOM goes the dynamite. I also decided to play toronto because my run of bad luck last month feels like it turned around. PRAISE on3!

**boycali01** · 04-17-12, 09:26 PM

Thanks On3 for NYY RL. They are all hits.Cheers

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-12, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by cactuar

I accidentally took NYY -1.5 luckily it paid off lol

on3 said to play RL

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-12, 09:32 PM

huge huge day!!!!! The way i had my lines laid out they all cleared! fANTASTIC DAY!!!!

everyone send on3 2pts?

PS
Atari cashes again!!! on a 10-1 Run and like 18-2 last 20..... I may be off by 1 win or loss on the last 20... but none the less on fire!!!
Sportsatari dot com.

People such as (wallco) will say he tells me to post this stuff for him, but i do this on my own. He is maknig me money super easy and I do not mind sharing a good capper with others. Doc SPorts and others are almost scams on their hot streaks and if you notice with them it seems like their on both sides of the game quite often, so at least one of their capper wins.

**alexknyc** · 04-17-12, 09:39 PM

I got an email from Docs Sports the other day offering me free picks in exchange for a testimonial. I wrote back that the best thing I could say about their free picks was that I made good money fading then. Needless to say, I never heard back.

**WVU9494** · 04-17-12, 09:40 PM

Does Atari charge for picks? Check out LTA thread on this board, the dude knows his stuff. He picks a lot of games but overall he is a consistent winner with rooffesional write ups.

**oklahoma** · 04-17-12, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Atari cashes again!!! on a 10-1 Run and like 18-2 last 20

Didnt he do that with NBA last season? Go on a crazy run, bomb then for some reason went tout?

**dlunc3** · 04-17-12, 09:48 PM

atari is a dishonest bum.. he might pick some winners every now and them, but the guy is a jerkoff.. the guy would throw you and your money under the bus and not think twice about it

**therizz** · 04-17-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by darkmatter117

I'm a bit concerned that therizz's backtest found 33 more plays and four fewer losses than my backtest, but as I said, I don't know how he conducted his. There were several lines that were close but not at or above -145 that I excluded.

Playing the R/L on all C bets would add two unfiltered losses, both of which occurred before September. I haven't done the unit calculations yet, so I'm not sure if it would be worth the juice you'd save if you incurred two additional losses.

If you want to compare, feel free to PM me. Things to consider:
-Were you including road teams
-Were you only backtesting using the o/u filter for Interleague games
-Were you testing opening lines or closing lines and at what book
-Were you testing teams with winning home records after the all-star break

The key to this whole thing is the use of the labby lines and the winning percentages for each level of plays. Hitting 60% or higher on labby lines should yield you a good result as long as you are smart with your bankroll. If you want a good runline chase I can let you know of a couple of them.