[Mr. Jones]

*Gentlemen as time permits it is my intention during this pre-season to present some of my bases betting theories. By necessity, these snippets will be highly condensed. Some will be based on decades of personal observations and some will be shamelessly lifted from baseball betting literature, with which I at least for the most part agree, and which I have in abundance in my extensive personal sports betting literature library.

Some will be perhaps elementary information, while other nuggets hopefully will be helpful even for the old-time veterans. One caveat is that at any time this may be discontinued, as my home is for sale and if a deal is made, I will not have time to continue this endeavor. So we are off to the first topic. And I may add, it is my hope that these topics provoke discussion which not only should be entertaining, but hopefully valuable to all of us. While differences of opinion are welcome and invited, flaming and crude putdowns, as seen daily in Players Talk, should not be part of the discourse here. We are much more highly evolved here.

Topic #1] BETTING STREAKS

Here I take a contrarian position from common thinking. I will not completely ignore the effects that winning or losing several games in a row [3 is a minimum], might have upon the given players of a given team at any given time. It is a factor that should be given due.....but only due....consideration. There are so many more variables at play.

So here is something elementary to keep in mind. The oddsmakers know the UNdue value that the majority of bettors place on winning and losing streaks and thus they make UNdue price adjustments. In other words, they make you pay more than equitable value to play the streaks. This in turn tells me that some of the best values in betting baseball can be found in betting for a streak to end, and the longer the streak, the better the value. And, of couse, this is a contrarian position.

As long as the average guy thinks in a traditional manner, and as long as he persists in being average, the baseball lines will be beatable by the guy who dares to think and be different. Let's be honest here, I would dare say that we have all heard and probably, at one time or another, suscribed to the theory of jumping on streaks after they reach the supposedly magical number of 3. But as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend, for surely the linesmakers know this.

I might sum up the matter by saying that a streak is not more likely to continue because it is a streak, but there will be streaks based on probability, and the likelihood of the outcome of any given game being influenced by what happened in the previous game is irrelevant, solely on the basis of the fact that it happened. There is much more detail to explain here and perhaps I will delve into it later.

But for now suffice it to say, when I handicap a game, I look at each team's recent performance, its overall quality and the pitching match up. I do not concern myself too much with what happened yesterday, which might have been an entirely different matchup, and for sure different pitchers.

*Much of this information should be credited to Bob McCune an old-time, veteran Vegas handicapper and writer. I do agree with it and I should add my results have been better over the years after taken a more contrarian position on the subject of streaks in baseball..

[mlb]

This in turn tells me that some of the best values in betting baseball can be found in betting for a streak to end, and the longer the streak, the better the value. And, of couse, this is a contrarian position.

question, I don't see how this is true. the majority of people bet on streaks to end. Chasing systems are very popular either way, winning after loses or losing after wins... I feel like it is the opposite. You are paying a premium for a streak to end based on all the chasers and you could possible be getting a discount on a streak to continue

just my 2 cents, but I'm probably wrong