[Willie Bee]

Cincinnati Reds +135 to ruin Oswalt’s return for Astros

Game Time: 07/28/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Roy Oswalt is an incredible 19-1 lifetime vs. the Reds, but he is making his first start off the DL and was having an off year anyway. Back Cueto and the better bullpen.

Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros is 19-1 in 24 career appearances against his opponent tonight, the Cincinnati Reds, but he is making his first start since being disabled with a hip injury, and the fact that the Houston bullpen is expected to be called on early makes the Astros a dicey proposition as favorites.

Besides, Oswalt was not having a typical season even before the injury, as he is just 7-8 with an uncharacteristic 4.56 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. While he is certainly better than that, he will not get a chance to fully prove that tonight since he will undoubtedly be on a pitch count, and the Astros bullpen ranks fifth from the bottom out of 30 major league teams with a 4.35 ERA.

Now Johnny Cueto has virtually identical numbers to Oswalt this year, as he is 7-9 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. That in itself give the Reds value as big dogs, but they gain even more value when you consider that Cueto has more upside, looking downright dominant at times this year, and that Cincinnati has the far superior bullpen, ranking ninth in the majors with a 3.53 ERA.

Given that we do not expect Oswalt to be dominant in his first start back, we actually feel that the Reds have the pitching edge here after you factor in the bullpens, making them an easy call at this price.

Free Pick: Reds +135

[Willie Bee]

Mussina pitches New York Yankees -163 past Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 07/28/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | covers.com

Mike Mussina has been solid for the Yankees who are on a nice run up the AL East standings. Nab New York tonight at home in the Bronx against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Yankees had their post All-Star game winning streak snapped last night in Boston, but that's probably good news here as they won't enter the game overconfident. New York has won 10 straight in Yankee Stadium and tonight they try to extend their recent surge against the Orioles.

Baltimore will start Jeremy Guthrie knowing that New York averages a solid 5.49 runs per game at home vs right-handed starters. The Orioles are just 3-8 in Guthrie's road starts. They are 2-3 in his last five road outings despite Guthrie allowing just a single home run in those starts. As hot as the Yankees' lefties are right now we can't expect the Oriole righty to keep the ball in the park tonight.

The Yankees counter with veteran Mike Mussina who has been tremendous for most of the year. The Moose has produced 10-straight quality starts entering tonight and has an amazing 31-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio his last five starts. He has now gone 10-straight starts of six innings or more as he continues to set up the Yankee bullpen to have success. With the back of the New York bullpen rested we can expect a solid pitching performance from the hosts tonight.

The number's a bit cheap considering how well the Yankees are playing and how good Mussina has been as of late. Play New York.

Free Pick: Yankees -163

[Willie Bee]

Maddux, San Diego Padres -114 vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Time: 07/28/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Trade rumors continue to swirl around future Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux who might be making his final start for San Diego. Play the Padres when they host the Diamondbacks.

Our Monday night MLB selection is on the San Diego Padres at home in Petco Park over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Veteran right-hander and future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux has gone an incredible 13 starts without a victory, and in more than one of those outings he has been the victim of weak run support, poor defense, and sub-par relief pitching from his teammates. But he has continued to stay focused and has really pitched pretty well through this unfortunate streak, keeping his ERA only slightly above four runs per game despite only three wins on the season. Tonight could be the night that Maddux breaks through against a D-Backs team that has struggled on the road this season.

After being demoted to the bullpen earlier in the month, 25-year-old right-hander Micah Owings returns to the rotation for this start. Owings was having problems with his mechanics which turned him from an extremely effective starter to a pitcher struggling to gain his control in the second half of only his second season in the majors. He has been working with pitching coach Brian Price on this mechanical problem and there's no way to know whether the work has paid off until Owings steps on the mound tonight.

With trade rumors swirling around veteran Maddux (the most likely scenario has him going to division rival Los Angeles), expect him to come out and put on a clinic this evening and earn his first victory since May 10. Take the Padres.

Free Pick: Padres -114

[Willie Bee]

NY Mets -116 at Florida Marlins

Game Time: 07/28/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Mets have been on fire recently with 15 wins in their last 19 games. Make your play on John Maine and New York Monday when the Metropolitans visit the Florida Marlins.

The New York Mets enter into Monday's action against their hosts the Florida Marlins in red hot form having won 15 of their last 19 games overall. New York has also enjoyed playing in Dolphin Stadium, cashing tickets for their backers in 12 of their last 14 outings here.

The Marlins, on the other hand, are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, especially on offense, where their batting order is hitting just .188 during the current eight-game span.

The Mets' positive momentum has a good chance of continuing as they send hurler John Maine (9-7, 4.20 ERA) out to the hill to face a Marlins team he has had success against in the recent past. The right-hander recorded a 3-0 record along with a stingy 2.45 ERA in his four outings against the Marlins during his 2007 campaign, and will primed and motivated to stop them again in this spot.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Ricky Nalasco (10-6, 3.99 ERA) is in a bit of funk, losing his last two outings since the All-Star break, allowing nine runs on 15 hits in just 12 innings of work. The former Rialto High School star has not fared well at home in the past against the Mets, registering an 0-2 record along with an ugly 9.00 ERA in four appearances (two starts). The Mets are currently operating on all cylinders, making them good bets against any team in the National League right now.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Mets are 22-5 in Maine's last 27 starts vs. National League East squads. The Marlins are hitting just .237 at home this season. New York's David Wright owns a powerful .408 AVG in his last 24 games in this series.

Free Pick: Mets -116

[Willie Bee]

Take Tigers -115 at Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 07/28/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

This is a very reasonable price and the Tigers have the mound advantage with Kenny Rogers against the Indians' Paul Byrd. Detroit is the pick in Game 1 of their series in Cleveland.

The Detroit Tigers lost their weekend series to the Chicago White Sox, but at least salvaged the finale on Sunday.

I like their chances of garnering some good results as they head to Cleveland to take on the towel-tossing Indians, who are in full-fledged sell mode. Kenny Rogers should at least equal whatever the Tribe can count on from Paul Byrd, and the Detroit offense is vastly superior to that owned by the Indians.

The price is very reasonable, so the Tigers are the selection.

Free Pick: Tigers -115

[Willie Bee]

Diamondbacks, Padres stay Under 7˝

Game Time: 07/28/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Padres and Diamondbacks have not exceeded six combined runs in any of their last four meetings, and tonight should be no different. Maddux has been great at home while Owings is improving.

Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has turned back the clock at home this year, while Micah Owings has gone Under in his last three starts. Throw in two suspect offenses, and runs should be hard to come by tonight.

Maddux may be just 1-3 at home, but he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 home starts. That should give you an idea of just how bad the San Diego offense has been here. The last time that Maddux faced the D-Backs in this stadium, he allowed just one run in seven innings, and that was last season when the Arizona offense was much better than it is this year.

Now Owings may have a 4.66 ERA on the road, but he has allowed exactly three runs in three straight starts, and besides, the Padres offense could make any competent pitcher look like Cy Young, especially at home. The Pads are batting a modest .242.as a team while averaging a lowly 3.58 runs per game in San Diego this year.

These teams have gone Under in each of the last four head-to-head meetings with none of those meetings exceeding six runs, and we look for more of the same tonight.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks, Padres Under 7˝ (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Rogers, Detroit Tigers -115 good bets at Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 07/28/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Tigers are still trying to make a push for the playoffs while the Indians are already thinking of next year. Back Kenny Rogers and Detroit when they travel to Cleveland.

The Tigers are 11-1 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. In their last 29 games overall as a favorite, Detroit is 23-6.

Detroit has won their last four road games. In their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 21-7. Detroit is 10-2 in Kenny Rogers' last 12 starts as a road favorite. In his last 42 starts as a favorite the Tigers are 31-11.

The Indians are 7-16 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 30 games as an underdog they are 6-24. Cleveland has lost six of Paul Byrd's last seven starts. On the year the Indians are 5-14 when Byrd takes the mound. Play on Detroit.

Free Pick: Tigers -115

[gummo]

Cincinnati Reds +135 to ruin Oswalt’s return for Astros


Game Time: 07/28/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Roy Oswalt is an incredible 19-1 lifetime vs. the Reds, but he is making his first start off the DL and was having an off year anyway. Back Cueto and the better bullpen.

Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros is 19-1 in 24 career appearances against his opponent tonight, the Cincinnati Reds, but he is making his first start since being disabled with a hip injury, and the fact that the Houston bullpen is expected to be called on early makes the Astros a dicey proposition as favorites.

Besides, Oswalt was not having a typical season even before the injury, as he is just 7-8 with an uncharacteristic 4.56 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. While he is certainly better than that, he will not get a chance to fully prove that tonight since he will undoubtedly be on a pitch count, and the Astros bullpen ranks fifth from the bottom out of 30 major league teams with a 4.35 ERA.

Now Johnny Cueto has virtually identical numbers to Oswalt this year, as he is 7-9 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. That in itself give the Reds value as big dogs, but they gain even more value when you consider that Cueto has more upside, looking downright dominant at times this year, and that Cincinnati has the far superior bullpen, ranking ninth in the majors with a 3.53 ERA.

Given that we do not expect Oswalt to be dominant in his first start back, we actually feel that the Reds have the pitching edge here after you factor in the bullpens, making them an easy call at this price.

Free Pick: Reds +135

I played the over. GL