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Playoff atmosphere hits early week MLB betting
Playoff atmosphere hits early week MLB betting
Derrek Lee and the Chicago Cubs travel to Milwaukee with a one-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. Meanwhile the best team in baseball, the Angels, travels to Boston to take on the Red Sox.
Major League Baseball often gets upstaged at this time of year by the start of NFL training camps. Not this time, not even with that Favre guy making headlines.
The drama has simply been too good this year. Division races are tight, news wires have been humming with trades for weeks, and Madonna even got her name connected to Alex Rodriguez in order to promote her new tour – at least, that’s what “sources” are saying. I just find it amusing that she named Hard Candy after a movie where the heroine cuts off the bad guy’s Spaldings.
Moving right along…
Cubs at Brewers
Game 1: Monday, 8:05 p.m. Eastern
CHC: Ted Lilly
MIL: CC Sabathia
Game 2: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m.
CHC: Carlos Zambrano
MIL: Ben Sheets
Game 3: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN)
CHC: Ryan Dempster
MIL: Manny Parra
Game 4: Thursday, 2:05 p.m.
CHC: Rich Harden
MIL: Dave Bush
The Cubs are starting to lose a little steam against the betting odds after dropping six of 10 games since the All-Star break. But they’re still very much the public team in this matchup, favored to win the National League pennant at +175 compared to +375 for the Brewers. That’s the futures market; for Game 1 of this series, Milwaukee is pegged as high as -180 with a total of 7½ runs.
That’s what happens when you trade for CC Sabathia (1.36 ERA, 3.01 xFIP in Milwaukee). The Brewers have won all four of his starts in the senior circuit by a combined score of 22-6. Over in Bizarro World, the Cubs have lost two of the three starts made by Rich Harden (1.04 ERA, 2.48 xFIP in Chicago) since he arrived from Oakland. Harden struck out 10 batters each time and gave up a grand total of two runs, but the Cubs were outscored 12-10 and dropped 2.95 units in the process.
Chicago supporters are hoping for better results now that Alfonso Soriano (.849 OPS) is back in action. He’s 6-for-23 since rejoining the lineup after missing six weeks to a hand injury; the Cubs went 16-18 (-3.68 units) in his absence.
Angels at Red Sox
Game 1: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
LAA: Jered Weaver
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.
LAA: John Lackey
BOS: Clay Buchholz
Game 3: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. (ESPN)
LAA: Joe Saunders
BOS: Josh Beckett
The Red Sox salvaged the last game of their series with the hated Yankees, beating up on Sir Sidney Ponson Sunday night and winning 9-2. Now they have a return date with the Angels, who swept Boston on the Left Coast less than two weeks ago. Revenge is on the menu for Game 1: The Red Sox were floating around -150 on the early lines with a total of nine runs.
Boston’s mystique and aura at Fenway took a hit versus the Yankees, although the Red Sox are still 37-13 at home for 18.61 units in profit. The Sox are also 21-8 in their last 29 against the Angels at Fenway. However, this year’s Los Angeles team is remarkably good on the road, going 33-19 and collecting 14.51 units. The next best away record in the majors belongs to St. Louis at 28-24.
In case it hasn’t been drilled into your brain yet, the Angels have the best record in baseball at 64-40 despite a relatively small +37 run differential, which translates to a 56-48 pythagorean record. The 61-45 Red Sox, on the other hand, have a run differential of +95 and a pythagorean record of 63-43.
The upshot is that Los Angeles has driven the Under to a 59-38-7 mark and has made ridiculous money off John Lackey (6.26 units, 10 wins in 13 starts) and Joe Saunders (9.49 units, 15 wins in 20 starts). Boston’s big-money pitcher is Daisuke Matsuzaka at 8.79 units on 14 wins in 17 starts; the under is 10-6-1 when Dice-K takes the mound.
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Originally Posted by max_asdf
