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Thank you gentlemen, good morning to you all. I have been PM, several times asking whether or not The Contrarian will be providing a twitter account for the dissemination of selections. Yes, indeed. The Observation Tower does in fact employ the latest in technology for your selecting satisfaction.
Hoping to see TheJewBear pop into the contrarian Observation Tower along with his cast of characters. TheLock is aware of his capping antics.
Still contemplating my future wagers. Sniffing on the Astros in the National and A's in the American.
+10000 and +4000 respectively. Longshots to say the least. Remember, I am not looking to tie up my money all season to win +450 on chalk. Last season we nailed the Reds and Twins, not major longies last year, but good enough. You guys got any thoughts on any longshots for the futures.
Certainly agree on the A's. They could surprise in a big way. As the Giants so clearly demonstrated, the game is still all about pitching and few seem to realize that the A's had the best staff ERA and gave up the fewest hits in the AL last year. In those critical areas they also topped the performance of every NL staff with the exception of the Giants and Padres, whose pitchers spent the summer pitching to a lot of other pitchers and not DH's.
Gio Gonzalez/Dalls Braden/Trevor Cahill/Brett Anderson is a starting rotation that can pitch with anybody + Rich Harden is back again. When healthy, Harden can pitch in any rotation in the game. Although the Rangers pulled away last year, the A's were a .500 club, played the Rangers very tough heads up and topped last year's pre-season Division fav Angels. The addition of Matsui to the lineup this year is also going to bring a lot of excitement to the Bay area with a huge Asian fan base.
I think the +4000 to win it all has significantly more value than the +1700 to win the AL. If they ever were to win the pennant - you'd have to get more than +2.35 on a WS play to turn your 1700 into 4000. I don't believe you'd get close to that - have to believe they'd be getting much less a dog price no matter who they were to play.
Also interestng in the AL for 2011 would be Detroit. They too played to exactly .500 last year, will be a better club this time around and you can never discount Jim Leyland's managerial ability when he has a shot.
In the NL, I think the Brewers could easily surprise in the NL Central. Gallardo/Greinke/Marcum makes a very strong front 3 + they can swing the bats. Their .262 team BA last year was better than the Phils.
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-07-11 at 11:15 AM.
It is unfortunate that the signature portion of the site is disabled. I have accessed a tracking mechanism and a way to view the selections and its record with very little effort. If you are interested send a PM to get the information.
Come on SBR, bring back the sig!
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-07-11 at 08:43 PM.
In my opening, I describe my recordkeeping system. In a nut shell, one game, one unit. I would like to hear your thoughts on this issue. I believe each game has the same value from a success rate. But of course, from a wagering standpoint, I adjust my wager accordingly. 0-10 for 1 unit each = -10 units, a 15 unit pick for a win. 1-11 +5 units. What kind of crap is that.
SBR should establish an official unit count policy. What are your thoughts. For those who follow this thread in the past, you how this issue gets my goat.
I know it gets your groin, 5’s, when guys get behind the curve and then just stack it up and Martingale their way to a respectable Unit total, but let me say this…
1. That guy who goes 0-10 and then bets the 15 Units is clearly a phony/fraud – but we know he’s not always going to win that big play. He’s going to get killed in pretty short order anyway. Any forum reader with a gambling IQ above room temperature knows that progressive, Martingale-type play doesn’t work long term – so as long as the guy is reporting accurately and posting his plays up front he won’t last very long. He’ll inevitably be revealed as a losing player (and a big one) no matter what.
2. If you force everyone to simply flat bet you eliminate almost all professionals. Virtually all who do this stuff professionally, although they don’t chase or apply progressive systems, do use some form of variable staking. They either use Kelly staking, scaling up their play with their bankroll and/or wager some reasonable unit multiple on what they feel are their stronger +EV plays. While recreational play can often be just a dick measuring contest about W-L records - professional play is only about one thing - making money – and the fact is professional players vary their play to maximize growth of their bankroll.
3. In sports other than baseball, where you are betting straight point spreads or totals and where hitting at .5238 has significance as a break even percentage, W-L records are meaningful. But in baseball, where one guy may bet a lot of favorites, another guy a lot of dogs and another a lot of run lines; our W-L record is generally meaningless at best and misleading at worst in terms of comparing or evaluating handicappers. The only relevant measure is Units. If we are going to even report a W-L percentage - we really need a more sophisticated system which reports that percentage against the implied win percentage of the average price the guy is laying or taking and then measure the difference in terms of standard deviations from the random mean.
I share your frustration with a lot of the BS in posted records, but think it basically comes down to the integrity of and the trust you have in the guy posting – and it probably always will.
Sir, good luck to you this season. You seem to know your business. Look forward to your picks.
Welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower Mr. Meathead. Perhaps this is your first time in here. I think you will enjoy the conversations. Please come back again, all points of view are appreciated.Originally Posted by MEATHEAD
Thanks BB for chiming in. If I were to agree with your point of view, what unit system would be reasonable. Would a one unit to five unit spread be the right way? I will speak to some who would say a 1-10 works for them, perhaps a 1, 5, 10, 15 system works. I know you are a fan of the 2 unit. The unit count should be a level playing field to indicate to all players your capping success. You claim in your post, " While recreational play can often be just a dick measuring contest about W-L records - professional play is only about one thing - making money – and the fact is professional players vary their play to maximize growth of their bankroll." I agree, vary play/money is essential. My bankroll success, if we wanted to track it's success, then I would post the amount of my bankroll and the amount of each wager. The viewing capper could then see the success of the varying wagers without question.
In a nutshell I am saying, the unit count is a reflection on your capping success as it relates to picking winners. Posting wager amounts would reflect the sucess of making money.
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-08-11 at 05:39 AM.
Got a commitment from TheLock on opening day to hang out and watch the Boys of Summer. What a guy.Hopefully TheJewBear will join us.
Units and W-L Records
Here's my take, 5's -
In the real world, I’d say individual wager limits are rigidly imposed already - by the realities of your bankroll. But in a forum setting – much like in a contest – the wagers posted are just funny money to many guys. So just as you can’t have a serious contest without some kind of formal structure, I agree with you that the forum would also benefit by some standardized structure with limits.
I don’t think it would necessarily require you start with a specified bankroll and post exact wager amounts. It would be fine to use Units and let each player define the value of a Unit for himself - but you do need some range flexibility per wager. Personally, I think the 1 to 5 Unit range would be reasonable. It’s one that would provide significant flexibility yet prohibit anyone from getting totally off the reservation. As you say, some would argue for a 1 to 10 and I could live with that too – but anything beyond that gets a little ridiculous.
But just as important, I think, would be to present our records in a standardized format providing all the information necessary to make meaningful comparisons. Obviously, Net Units is most relevant. The number of units up or down is the acid test. When you look at a poker pro, for example, nobody cares how many pots a guy has won or what percentage of pots a guy has won. The only success that matters is reflected in his chip stack.
When it comes to evaluating a capper’s W-L record and win percentage, I’m looking for 2 things. First is the number of plays over which the guy has produced his bottom line Unit total. Secondly, to interpret the W-L percentage performance, I want some context – i.e., the average prices at which those wagers were made. For a capper with a contrarian philosophy such as your own, he can be extremely effective and profitable going 81-81 over 162 games. A guy betting the Yankees on the ML every day, however, would last year have gone 95-67, a great looking W-L record and percentage, but he still would have been an ineffective and losing capper. And a guy who specializes in taking huge prices betting dogs on the reverse run line can be a winning capper hitting a percentage in the 30’s.
To facilitate the comparison between cappers with different approaches, I would introduce something like AP/U (the average price at which each unit was wagered) and/or AIWE (the average implied win expectation for each unit wagered). With those metrics, I can more clearly see who is outperforming market expectation and who is not. It might look something like this:
The Contrarian - 81-81 .500 +27.54 U (AP/U +1.34, AIWE .415)
YankeeFan - 95-67 .586 - 4.16 U (AP/U -1.48, AIWE .597)
For you, a .500 performance was terrific since you were taking an average of +1.34 on every unit wagered and way outperformed the market expectation (break even percentage) of .415 which that average price commands. But YankeeFan, although his .586 performance looks great in isolation, he was laying on average a chalky -1.48 on each unit wagered and actually underperformed its implied win expectation of .597. He actually lost money.
If we could see records in that format, it would be a lot easier to separate chicken from feathers around here.
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This post was nominated 2
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People who nominated: Pair of 5s Sir, and TCMBob
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BB
I clearly hear what you are saying. Putting out selections with a unit value would be foreign to me. Dart throwing to some extent. I am not sure of what direction I would take with a 1 to 5 strategy. For those who have been following my thread, would they prefer to see a 1 to 5 unit strategy or continue in the previous fashion?
Great post.
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-09-11 at 12:04 AM.
BB
Just thought of something. In actuality, I am unit betting. 3% max play on Bankroll divided by 5 (5 unit system) is essentially my wager.
Example: 20K BR x .03 = 600/5. $120/unit
For me it's establishing the dollar amount first, then convert into units using the above example.
My comfort level is greater now.
Good morning Contrarians, welcome to the Observation Tower. As you can see the thread is populating fast. The normal cast of characters are popping in. Kudos to the BeatingBaseball with his indepth analysis of money management. Feel free to share your thoughts. I decided to nominate his MM post on the site. It's good stuff.
Soon we will be looking for our contrarian angles on MLB. The return of the(CDDP) "Contrarian Double Dog Play", and "The game that can't go under", will shine upon us.
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-09-11 at 08:16 AM.
Is Gary Cedarstrom still active?
The Gary's play, Cedarstrom and Darling, I will have to check. Made good money with them.
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-10-11 at 01:35 AM.
For those of you who are unfamilar with the Gary's play, it has to do with umpires Gary Darling and Gary Cedarstrom relating to the total play. If the Contrarian indicators line up, an Over play is in order. The Gary's behind the plate is not enough, it requires other factors (to be discussed at a later time), it's a great angle that provides great postive units.
This year I am going to Chart some of the contrarian angles separately:
Contrarian Double Dog Play (CCCP)
The Gary's
The Game that can't go under (GCCU)
The Game that can't go Over (GCCO)
I hope I am not forgetting any?
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-10-11 at 01:56 AM.
"
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-10-11 at 11:42 PM.
BB
Thanks for the Garys info. As I said in my post there are other factors that contribute to the Garys play. Cedarstrom and Darling have tight zones compound that with the Contrarian factors relating to the total and the square ERA stats, the Garys play yields positive units. What's interesting about this angle, the square money will often look just at the record, but to their surprise, when it lines up, the Garys are really good.
What comes to mind for me re Cederstrom is: a bad umpire - not well respected - a long history of arguments, messy games and controversies. Everyone is familiar with Jim Joyce’s missed call at 1st last year which cost the Tigers’ young Gallaraga his perfect game. I wonder how many recall that Cederstrom cost Bobby Witt a perfecto by blowing almost the exact same "late to the bag" call (but worse) about 15 years ago. About the only difference between the two calls is that Jim Joyce, a class guy and a really good umpire, felt so bad about his mistake that he publicly apologized - something Cederstrom is yet to do.
Can't wait!
Looking forward to a positive expectation baseball season while attempting to ride with the contrarian mafia! I'm especially grateful for the shout out from Pair of 5's and I can't wait to check out the said:
Contrarian Double Dog Play (CCCP)
The Gary's
The Game that can't go under (GCCU)
The Game that can't go Over (GCCO)
Last season I didn't keep track in terms of units, but I only ended with a small loss thanks to the early Reds pick by Pair of 5's. Here's to another fun season
Welcome JewBear to the Observation Tower. I will let security know that you have a backstage pass.Looking forward to a positive expectation baseball season while attempting to ride with the contrarian mafia! I'm especially grateful for the shout out from Pair of 5's and I can't wait to check out the said:
Contrarian Double Dog Play (CCCP)
The Gary's
The Game that can't go under (GCCU)
The Game that can't go Over (GCCO)
Last season I didn't keep track in terms of units, but I only ended with a small loss thanks to the early Reds pick by Pair of 5's. Here's to another fun season
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-11-11 at 05:42 AM.
Good luck, I'll check your thread. TY
liking this thread and the info .. keep it going
Welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower.
sorry it took so long, but I finally got back to you
I love that we will be tracking The Gary's Plays. Lol.
God bless the Garys
Long day capping MLB. Wait, there are no games until end of March. Analysis is an ongoing mission. The discussion will get interesting around here.
Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-11-11 at 06:39 PM.
I have been discussing money managment with some of the contrarios over the past few days. Oftentimes during the season, I will be asked if I like a certain play better than another. I have spoken with TheLock, BeatingBaseball and others, regarding an established money managment unit system from my traditional one play, one unit. Visitors to the Contrarian Observation Tower will be able to see which selections garner more "support".
I hereby officially establish the following unit system for the 2011 MLB. A 1-5 unit system will be employed. I anticipate most play will be 1,2,3 with an occasional 4,5. This will be in line with my intentions to post picks on pick monitor.com.
Any gripes or suggestions, let me know.
Again, straightforward, No BS.
I will be on the contrarian picks of the Stro's and A's.
Any thoughts on these possibilities for Pennant at 5dimes:
NL- NY +2200
STL+1200
AL- SEA +4000
Good morning Contrarios from the Tower. Another day forward in the direction of Opening Day. The Contrarian Mafia is collecting its thoughts and preparing for the start of MLB. Yesterday I announced the official unit system which met with no resistance. Followers of the thread are registering at pick monitor.com for the posting and recordkeeping aspects in order to provide the highest level of legitimacy relating to my selection record. If you are interested drop me a PM with your email..
The Cards after last year are on fading mode but I believe they will improve somewhat. 12-1 on the Cards does not do it for me. NYM, nah don't like the futures with NY teams, they get pounded by the New York tri-state money and the books have to adjust accordingly.
Also, I am waiting to see the season wins numbers. Part of my strategy is to take an Over on one of my picks, betting an amount to recover all cost of my futures and props. If my team goes over, then I am free rolling. The Reds went Over last year to complete the wagering mission and continue on to win the Division. Reminder, ladder the two teams for Division, Pennant and World Series.
For those who post in this thread, I want to thank you for all your thoughtful contibutions. I want to give a special shout out to BeatingBaseball for his in-depth analysis and commentary. I encourage opposing points of view within the bounds of good taste. If you guys have any suggestions for improvement, let me know.
The Contrarian
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