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No way Joba should be a -165 to 170 favorite
Bookmakers know heads will pay that much. Duke has pitched decent in his last three starts. His home stats are okay.
How many pitches will they let Joba throw tonight? Like to hear some opinions on this.
Duke scares me a little, because the Yanks can blow him up.....
Any Pirate backers tonight?
Yankees are trash...but they should win today
Anyone know if Damon is playing?
Damon is expected to miss another day or two.Originally Posted by Sinister Cat
Matsui - has played just 24 games in the field due to his injury, and can’t be used as a designated hitter because the Yankees are in an NL park.
I'm never comfortable betting on the Pirates, I wholeheartedly agree that the line with Joba pitching is out of whack, he's a kid, and unproven as a starter and will possibly be on a pitch count once again, the Yankees are babying him.
That said, the Yanks are capable of scoring a dozen runs any given night.
If I had to make a play, it would be small on Pitt.
I agree with you 100%. You took the words right out of my mouth.
If Damon and Matsui are out, thats pretty big though. Thats two hitters out....who are now ranked within the top 5 for average in MLB.
Also, Joba will probably be pulled around 95 pitches.
It comes down to pitching in this one. Can Zack do it?
Im on the Pirates... A great +157 line, im not sold on Joba, Duke have been solid all year and that the Pirates is a strong team at home is good enough for me to lay some money on it...
Last edited by Clueless_Norway; 06-25-08 at 04:53 PM.
yankees are gonna win and joba is not overpriced he has the stuff the shutdown the pirates with ease anyday of the week.
never trust the yankees!
they are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too inconsistent
Pat...I'm not saying the kid doesn't have any stuff, he's very talented. I'm saying he's a handful of games into his career as a starter. Probably on a tight count and the Pirates are at home and he commands almost -170?
I think that the Yanks and the Phillies are the two most inconsistent teams in baseball right now... I'll never bet on Phillies games rest of my life...
"Duke is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three outings at PNC Park, where the Pirates are 24-16"Pat...I'm not saying the kid doesn't have any stuff, he's very talented. I'm saying he's a handful of games into his career as a starter. Probably on a tight count and the Pirates are at home and he commands almost -170?
I think the pitching matchup is even in this one as long as Joba preforme as he have in his few starts.. Also remember that every pitcher have a bad outing once in a while..
I would take a look at under FF before backing Joba at these odds...
zach duke is an avergae pitcher. look at his numbers for the season and he didnt put up that 1.74 era vs arod,giambi and the yanks. hes gonna get shelled tonight
The Yankees are now unbettable for the rest of the year except for when they play the Red Sox, as that may be the only time they are not overvalued, especially when they're at Fenway.
I disagree only because I feel they've always been overvalued, but yeah one figures to get a fairer shake playing them against the Sox.
Why wouldn't Joba be a -165? Yankees classically over-valued and on a hot streak of sorts against a pathetic Pittsburgh team. If you think the price is not right, take your shot with the Buccos. Duke is decent at home.
I don't think there is ever a time that the Yankees aren't over-priced. I have the Pirates +155 FF.
who is going to win? yankees. so the value is on the yanks pirates cant win this game.
Yankees should win, but I don't think they are 62% bet. Pirates/Duke are good at home, and the Yankees are a mediocre team. They have big name recognition and are a public team, hence they are always overvalued.
Not true. The key is, if you bet the Yankees say 100 times under these condidions, would you make a profit. The answer is NO so the Yankees have no value even if they win this one game.
The answer is actually yes. You'd make a profit "under these conditions." You'd lose money betting PITT under these conditions if we specificy conditions being the current betting market.
This talk that NYY is overvalued tonight is ridiculous. Not saying NYY wins, but certainly at this point there is slightly more value in betting NYY at the current price IMO.
lt that way of thinking has not worked for you and in this situation yankees will go 90-10 at worst with joba on the mound against a weak pirates lineup with zach duke's average at best stuff with 20 more hits than innings pitched vs a powerful yankees lineup.
dont get confused pirates offense is bad. darell rasner is not a good pitcher and thats why he got lumped up he is nowhere near joba's level and potential.
easy pick : give me the yankees -160 in this situation anyday
How can you make a profit under such conditions? You are betting a favorite at about -160 to -180 and it turns out that this favorite wins no more than 50% of those games. I'm only being generous here. In fact, the favorite in question wins no more than 33% of games under these conditions.
games over already good value bet guys
Well then you must think the line is totally off and the linesmaker has absolutely no idea what he is doing?
If the line opens -175 and you can get it -164, and you believe that -175 is a true line then you can be certain that -164 is an advantageous play while betting on Pitt will generate a negative result.
If anything, the line is low. NYY should be closer to -190 against Duke. Duke is a very very mediocre pitcher.
thank you buddy. duke is not good.
As we all know linesmakers cater their lines to the public. They know people will bet the Yankees no matter how high it is, so they set the line extremely high. Isn't that one of the first things handicappers learn?
LOLEvery team im on is down 2-0 after top 1st... Jays, Pirates and Indians
Should make for an stressful night. Against ya on the jays, but I'm with you on the Buccos.LOL
And of course the game I couldn't pull the trigger on... Nats up 2-0. What a great day so far
Well sure, if you want to discuss the Yankees 162 games a season, there will be times where they are overvalued. They do have a big following and are always appealing to the casual/recreational bettor. However, that does not mean there aren't games and stretches in which they are profitable. Sorry, but if they open up -175 and you can get them -164, I just don't understand how someone can say it's a bad bet....unless the Yankees are routinely that overvalued. Anyway, Pitt is below .500 and a considerably weaker team in almost every facet. -175 is more than a fair price IMO.
But to say that there is no value on the Yankees ever and this and that and under these conditions you would not turn a profit, well that is misinformation
Good luck....
example of a bad line for yanks would be yest betting them @ -145ish with rasner who is nothing special. on that game i pass. you have to be selective when betting u can't bet 4 games a day and win u just can't. imo betting more than 5 games a week u will not profit consistenly u will either lose alot or win a little and give it back betting just for action and not to make dollar. DONT BET THE PIRATES AGAINST THE YANKEES ITS DUMB.
Well i didn't bet this game but hope Pitt wins since I have a season win total of Over 69 for Pitt. Need them to play well at home and if they can take this series it is a bonus IMO. NYY is much better than they are.
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